Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you want to go this route, Johnson had 9 points in 7 games in the WJC, 5 points in 5 games in the Olympics and 7 points in 10 games in the world championship for Canada. It doesn't seem like Johnson's international track record is an issue.

Im not saying it’s an issue. Im saying Hagens was unreal at those events. (Unfortunately Johnson did not get same opportunities) Also KJ did that a year later.

If you want a good H2H stat comp…. Compare Hagens to Beniers because they are both NTDP late bdays who played in a ton of international events.. sure the NCAA p/pg is similar but Hagens blows him away at every other stop.

The hype some put around Hagens doesn't seem to match the production, he's at 35 points in 35 games while playing on the team as Leonard and Perreault. It is just stat watching but the numbers don't really pop out there any more than Kent Johnson's did.

You need to watch. They are really not comparable. Different level of talent.

Production is not the issue with Hagens. He needs to get to the middle more at the NCAA level and is skating is already elite but you’d like to see some Crosby like explosion out of turns more often. It’s a bit airy and “one-speed” which means he’s not as elusive as you want a 5’11 F to be. It’s just little stuff with him that is (rightfully) getting picked apart with a guy projected to go 1OA. His dev curve is interesting too and he can go quiet in games. He’s a very strong 2OA/3OA/4OA in any draft.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Either way I'm more than happy with either outcome. #11/#12 this year or unprotected next year both sound great to me

I'm not a fan of allowing the NYR's to do a reset. This is most likely the lowest it will be.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I am not sure about the upside. I think that is the question with him and it’s very hard to get a read on.

Is he a 55 point guy, a 70-80 point guy, or a 100 point guy in his prime?

But yeah. Him falling to us at 6 or 7 is def best case scenario in those slots.

I mean, this team has largely canonized a career 55 point guy as the ideal Penguin. Having a guy put up 70-80 might give the PR team a fatal case of orgasm poisoning.

I'm happy with all three outcomes, especially if it's a "weak" draft.

 

[eXile3]

I'm not a fan of allowing the NYR's to do a reset. This is most likely the lowest it will be.

Their core is getting old and there seems to be some issues with the org at whole. I would not be surprised to see them bottom out next year.

Or Shesterkin makes them good again. Either way it’s out of our control.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Their core is getting old and there seems to be some issues with the org at whole. I would not be surprised to see them bottom out next year.

I thought this was about the Pens until I read:

Or Shesterkin makes them good again. Either way it’s out of our control.

 

[Malkinstheman]

I'm not a fan of allowing the NYR's to do a reset. This is most likely the lowest it will be.

I do expect them to be back in the playoffs next year but they don't have much cap space to work with and their core is ageing

 

[Gurglesons]

Im not saying it’s an issue. Im saying Hagens was unreal at those events. (Unfortunately Johnson did not get same opportunities) Also KJ did that a year later.

If you want a good H2H stat comp…. Compare Hagens to Beniers because they are both NTDP late bdays who played in a ton of international events.. sure the NCAA p/pg is similar but Hagens blows him away at every other stop.

You need to watch. They are really not comparable. Different level of talent.

Production is not the issue with Hagens. He needs to get to the middle more at the NCAA level and is skating is already elite but you’d like to see some Crosby like explosion out of turns more often. It’s a bit airy and “one-speed” which means he’s not as elusive as you want a 5’11 F to be. It’s just little stuff with him that is (rightfully) getting picked apart with a guy projected to go 1OA. His dev curve is interesting too and he can go quiet in games. He’s a very strong 2OA/3OA/4OA in any draft.

Hagens is getting the Wright treatment.

I don’t think I’ve seen a better skater since McDavid.

If we can somehow get Hagens, it could be franchise altering.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I don’t think I’ve seen a better skater since McDavid.

I think he’s the 3rd best skater in the class behind Schaefer and Potter. Still going to be an elite NHL skater.

 

[Gurglesons]

2000+ draft ages as 18 year olds that have been a PPG in the NCAA

Fantilli
Will Smith
Gabe Perreault
Logan Cooley
Ryan Leonard
Snuggerud
Bordeleau
Nadeau
Newhook
Lane Hutson
Max Plante
Zeev Buium
Cutter
Cole Hutson
Zegras
Kent Johnson
Hage
McGroarty
Caufield
Hagens
Cruz Lucius

70-80% of these players are impact NHLers or one of if not their team's top prospect.

 

[SEALBound]

Rags are a Shesterkin injury away from a top lottery pick unless Miller, Kreider, and Panarin get their poop in a scoop and decide to make things happen.

I agree with the premise that THIS year is likely a lower pick than next year but I'm not convinced that quality of player is necessarily better. 15ov 2026 > 15ov 2025.

I just wish we knew what kind of a return we might be able to get for EK or Rakell. If we could score a 26 1st, I'd want the Rags 25 1st. I'd like to have 2 1sts in the next 2 drafts.

 

[Gurglesons]

Rags are a Shesterkin injury away from a top lottery pick unless Miller, Kreider, and Panarin get their poop in a scoop and decide to make things happen.

I agree with the premise that THIS year is likely a lower pick than next year but I'm not convinced that quality of player is necessarily better. 15ov 2026 > 15ov 2025.

I just wish we knew what kind of a return we might be able to get for EK or Rakell. If we could score a 26 1st, I'd want the Rags 25 1st. I'd like to have 2 1sts in the next 2 drafts.

I know a way we could've known what kind of return we'd get for one of those guys...

 

[Sideline]

Rags are a Shesterkin injury away from a top lottery pick unless Miller, Kreider, and Panarin get their poop in a scoop and decide to make things happen.

I agree with the premise that THIS year is likely a lower pick than next year but I'm not convinced that quality of player is necessarily better. 15ov 2026 > 15ov 2025.

I just wish we knew what kind of a return we might be able to get for EK or Rakell. If we could score a 26 1st, I'd want the Rags 25 1st. I'd like to have 2 1sts in the next 2 drafts.

Jakob Chychrun getting 8x9 makes me think EK65 will have real value at the draft especially if the Penguins are willing to retain.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Their core is getting old and there seems to be some issues with the org at whole. I would not be surprised to see them bottom out next year.

Or Shesterkin makes them good again. Either way it’s out of our control.

They are not that old, not Penguins old that is.

 

[SEALBound]

Jakob Chychrun getting 8x9 makes me think EK65 will have real value at the draft especially if the Penguins are willing to retain.

True. Same with Rakell.

Rakell at $5mil and EK coming in at, say $7mil for 2 years (after the bonus is paid) are fairly valuable commodities honestly. I think that comes especially true after free agency when teams see the cost of a guy like Boeser and this recent Chychrun contract. Granted, that's a very fair deal for Chychrun given his age and abilities but that's one more premium PMD off the market, which helps us. You have Provorov, Orlov, and Ekblad as top FAs and there's there no guarantee that their teams don't resign them. Gotta think Florida moves on from Ekblad now that they have Jones but I also think EK is in another world compared to him. As pointed out before, I think Carolina makes the most sense for EK. If Ottawa wasn't such a shit show, I'd say them too but...

In any case, if they can pull a deal before the draft, a late 1st or even an early 2nd+prospects would be great for EK, especially if we have the Rags 1st pushed to 26. I'm not super thrilled about the idea of 3 1sts in this particular draft but the relative weakness of it could encourage some GMs to move the pick. I'd maybe try to swing something like EK+3rd+Poulin for Nadeau+2025 1st right before the draft. That's unorthodox for Carolina but they have several quality forward prospects, they have Blake and just got Stankoven and 2 1sts. Using your 25 1st to massively upgrade your RD seems like a decent idea.

Then if the Rags pick falls at 15ov or and we get 6-7, we can look at something like Frondell+Bear+McKinney as our 1st round which, quite honestly, would be a major haul for us.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jakob Chychrun getting 8x9 makes me think EK65 will have real value at the draft especially if the Penguins are willing to retain.

I honestly don't think it'll have any impact.

Also, the main issue with EK65 is he has full trade protection.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Also, the main issue with EK65 is he has full trade protection.

Correct. If he waives for a few teams I can see a ok return. If he only waives for 1 destination we arent getting shit IMO. Even though he is probably our best player (yes I said it). Hope I am wrong.

We are going to be legit heinous if we move him. Which might be a good thing, but kinda think if he only gets a 3rd why would you retain and trade him?

 

[eXile3]

They are not that old, not Penguins old that is.

Yes, but these are not the same caliber players as a Sid and Geno.

I can’t imagine players like JT Miller and Krieder are going to be that effective as they get older. Panarin is the one I don’t know. Given his talent he could be productive for a while.

 

[Gurglesons]

Correct. If he waives for a few teams I can see a ok return. If he only waives for 1 destination we arent getting shit IMO. Even though he is probably our best player (yes I said it). Hope I am wrong.

We are going to be legit heinous if we move him. Which might be a good thing, but kinda think if he only gets a 3rd why would you retain and trade him?

It's going to be really funny when people realize that EK was driving 90% of our offense if they move him.

 

[SEALBound]

It's going to be really funny when people realize that EK was driving 90% of our offense if they move him.

If the goal is to position ourselves for McKenna and DuPont...that seems rather ideal.

 

[Gurglesons]

If the goal is to position ourselves for McKenna and DuPont...that seems rather ideal.

If the goal is to position ourselves for McKenna and DuPont, the last year makes no sense.

 

[SEALBound]

If the goal is to position ourselves for McKenna and DuPont, the last year makes no sense.

Who cares about last year. Last year was their last swing. Didn't work. Now rebuild. Do that by getting McKenna and DuPont.

 

[The Old Master]

Their core is getting old and there seems to be some issues with the org at whole. I would not be surprised to see them bottom out next year.

Or Shesterkin makes them good again. Either way it’s out of our control.

looks like the discission is going to be up to them, if they think they are going to be better or worse next year.. imo

 

[Gurglesons]

Who cares about last year. Last year was their last swing. Didn't work. Now rebuild. Do that by getting McKenna and DuPont.

Starting with Guentzel. If the goal is to bottom out, every trade should be pure futures and taking on terrible contracts.

I simply don't think that is Dubas' goal. Whether it's the right or wrong decision.

 

[SEALBound]

Starting with Guentzel. If the goal is to bottom out, every trade should be pure futures and taking on terrible contracts.

I simply don't think that is Dubas' goal. Whether it's the right or wrong decision.

I mean, is that not what he's been doing?

Guentzel for Novak, Koivunen, Pono, Brunicke, Cruz, WPG 2nd, WPG 4th.

Signs Eller and trades him later for a 3rd and 5th.

Takes on Glass for a 3rd and 6th, trades him for a 3rd.

Signs Beauvillier, trades him for a 2nd.

Sends out Pettersson and DOC, gets Heinen, 1st, Fernstrom, and a 5th.

You still need players to play on the NHL team. "Oh no! He acquired Novak, Heinen, and Tomasino for cheap! He wants to win the cup!" isn't a great argument.

 

[Ulf5]

I want the Pens to win the McKenna and Dupont lottos. Speaking of which, I've asked this to Puckpedia and Pensburgh without any definitive answer: What constitutes using up one of the two in five year draft "wins?" Any time a team draft #1 or #2 regardless of their standings?

Any time a team moves up in drafting position.