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Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

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Empoleon8771 said:
The only prospect that is a clear step ahead of everyone else in this draft seems to be Schaefer, plus Misa is arguably getting to that level as well. Teams and scouts may have guys like Martone and Hagens ranked ahead of Frondell and Eklund, but that doesn't mean there is a "noteworthy" difference between them. They're all lottery tickets with top-6 upside.

I really like Martone, but Martone's production (37 goals and 98 points in 57 games) isn't significantly better than Jake O'Brien's production (32 goals and 98 points in 66 games), who's projected to be picked around #8 or #9. Frondell (11 goals and 25 points in 29 games) and Eklund (19 goals and 31 points in 42 games) aren't producing that differently and they're on the same team. Hagen's production in the NCAA this year (35 points in 35 games) is pretty pedestrian for the standards of high 1st rounders playing in college in their draft years, it's more similar to what Kent Johnson did in his freshman year.

I'm not meaning this to talk down any of the prospects, but this team's trajectory wouldn't be notably different with drafting Martone versus drafting Eklund. Their hot streak isn't causing them to miss out on Misa or Schaefer, both of who are guys I think you could argue would notably impact their trajectory. Using the 2021 draft, them winning is putting them in a position to draft William Eklund instead of Kent Johnson. Is the team really in much different of a spot with that?
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The team would be better positioned with a top 5 pick, because it would give them more options and potentially a prospect ranked in a different tier. Hagens and Martone are pretty consistently considered part of that top 4 group, but theres the chance one could slip. That's why I hoped we would continue the pre deadine slide.

Like I said, this winning streak's not the end of the world. But it doesn't gain us anything and hurts the only thing worth cheering for outside of Sid milestones.
 
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Dipsy Doodle said:
The team would be better positioned with a top 5 pick, because it would give them more options and potentially a prospect ranked in a different tier. Hagens and Martone are pretty consistently considered part of that top 4 group, but theres the chance one could slip. That's why I hoped we would continue the pre deadine slide.

Like I said, this winning streak's not the end of the world. But it doesn't gain us anything and hurts the only thing worth cheering for outside of Sid milestones.
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But again, the only 2 prospects in this draft that are clearly a tier above everyone else are Schaefer and Misa. Being ranked above them doesn’t make them a tier above.

I think you’re just focusing way too much on draft rankings and trying to put these guys into “tiers” rather than evaluating them individually as prospects. Hagens and Martone are the 2 best prospects after the top-2 in this draft, but the difference between Misa and Hagens/Martone seems larger than the difference between Hagens/Martone and Eklund/O’Brien. Hagens and Martone are the better prospects right now, but you’re obsessing way too much on draft rankings to make the difference between them seem much larger than it actually is.

The Penguins would obviously be better off picking #5 than #8, my point is that the difference in the quality of prospect you’re getting at that point isn’t nearly big enough to warrant the level of complaints about it. Especially with Rossi’s tweet of “this season is a disaster if their draft pick falls due to this hot streak”. Getting the #5 pick versus the #8 pick in this draft will most likely not change the trajectory of this team in any meaningful way, you’re getting a similar upside and caliber of prospect either way.

It’s entirely possible that the guy they’d be picking at #8 is the guy they had ranked #5 anyway, so they would have picked that guy at #5 had they been picking at #5 anyway. That’s exactly what happened with the Penguins at the 2014 draft, JR wanted to trade up to #11 with Nashville to get Kapanen but he ended up falling to their 1st at #22 anyway.
 
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Ugene Magic said:
That's why #6 is the spot to be in. Obviously #5 is better, but so much harder to attain going by current times. The closer to #10 or so, you're looking at drafting one of O'Brien/Bear and who knows with the Rangers pick? Heck, O'Brien could be gone at #9 or sooner.

Dropping significantly is really bad.... Because if everyone keeps to the board the Pens are not getting a quality player. just guys in the significant drop

I. Schaefer
2. Misa
3.Hagens
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Eklund
7. Desnoyers
8. O'Brien
9. McQueen
10. Smith

That's what the actual draft board should look like.
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A team in the 5-10 mark always goes off the reservation and goes for a reach. Pens were never picking top 3, unless we win the lottery. I am fine being 7/8/9 because I think will get the same type of player regardless.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
But again, the only 2 prospects in this draft that are clearly a tier above everyone else are Schaefer and Misa. Being ranked above them doesn’t make them a tier above.

I think you’re just focusing way too much on draft rankings and trying to put these guys into “tiers” rather than evaluating them individually as prospects. Hagens and Martone are the 2 best prospects after the top-2 in this draft, but the difference between Misa and Hagens/Martone seems larger than the difference between Hagens/Martone and Eklund/O’Brien. Hagens and Martone are the better prospects right now, but you’re obsessing way too much on draft rankings to make the difference between them seem much larger than it actually is.

The Penguins would obviously be better off picking #5 than #8, my point is that the difference in the quality of prospect you’re getting at that point isn’t nearly big enough to warrant the level of complaints about it. Especially with Rossi’s tweet of “this season is a disaster if their draft pick falls due to this hot streak”. Getting the #5 pick versus the #8 pick in this draft will most likely not change the trajectory of this team in any meaningful way, you’re getting a similar upside and caliber of prospect either way.

It’s entirely possible that the guy they’d be picking at #8 is the guy they had ranked #5 anyway, so they would have picked that guy at #5 had they been picking at #5 anyway. That’s exactly what happened with the Penguins at the 2014 draft, JR wanted to trade up to #11 with Nashville to get Kapanen but he ended up falling to their 1st at #22 anyway.
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It's entirely possible that they're available, and entirely possible that they're not. What we know for a fact is that they have a 100% better chance to get the player they want if they have the higher pick , and the chance of getting the player they want is more remote if they get to #9 or #10 with a lotto win from a team behind them. If the Pens have a higher pick, they could also trade down for draft capital if they think their guy would slide. Either way, we lose futures.

The Pens not only lose the chance to get a player they had ranked significantly higher - what if a player they had ranked #3 fell to #5? - they also run the risk of losing out on a player who could be ready next year and get someone instead whose development timeline doesn't jibe with this core's last gasp.

It's not apocalyptic, but threading the needle for this retool on the fly requires a lot to go right. This is not going right. That's not debatable.
 
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Speaking of draft rankings, Wheeler dropped his top-64 today:


Misa and Schaefer “pulling away” in Wheelers rankings and it has this top-15:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Mrtka
9. Eklund
10. Carbonneau
11. O’Brien
12. Smith
13. Hensler
14. Aitcheson
15. Bear

I would be extremely happy with O’Brien or Smith with the Rangers 1st, I’m hoping one of them slides to that pick. Getting out of this draft with Eklund and O’Brien or Smith would be great with their 1sts.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Speaking of draft rankings, Wheeler dropped his top-64 today:


Misa and Schaefer “pulling away” in Wheelers rankings and it has this top-15:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Mrtka
9. Eklund
10. Carbonneau
11. O’Brien
12. Smith
13. Hensler
14. Aitcheson
15. Bear

I would be extremely happy with O’Brien or Smith with the Rangers 1st, I’m hoping one of them slides to that pick. Getting out of this draft with Eklund and O’Brien or Smith would be great with their 1sts.
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I really hope we can get Eklund and Bear.

Knowing this franchise we are going to take Mrtka and Aitcheson.

Luckily Dubas is a big "talent" over anything else drafter.
 
Rakell67 said:
3 firsts, 1 currently 5 OA and 4 second round picks.
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2 late 1sts in a weak draft. And a combo of 2nds throughout a weak 2nd round. Maybe ALL of those for 2nd OV. Maybe? But still doubtful. When it comes to building pieces for the future, Misa >>>> any combination of picks/players that are not Misa.

I stand by what I said. Flyers should draft the 7 players quite honestly. I don't think the picks are going to get you anything good so you may as well draft and hope.
 
Gurglesons said:
I really hope we can get Eklund and Bear.

Knowing this franchise we are going to take Mrtka and Aitcheson.

Luckily Dubas is a big "talent" over anything else drafter.
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I kinda trust Clark with the OHL so I’ll trust him if he drafts from that league… but imo Aitcheson ain’t it

I’d be thrillled with Mrtka though. Simon Edvinsson lite and a righty.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
I kinda trust Clark with the OHL so I’ll trust him if he drafts from that league… but imo Aitcheson ain’t it

I’d be thrillled with Mrtka though. Simon Edvinsson lite and a righty.
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I'm always super cautious of big D that rise in a draft.

Honestly, in general I don't see any reason to draft a D in the top ten tbh unless they are a Schaefer / Dahlin / etc level prospect.
 
Gurglesons said:
I'm always super cautious of big D that rise in a draft.

Honestly, in general I don't see any reason to draft a D in the top ten tbh unless they are a Schaefer / Dahlin / etc level prospect.
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Hughes and Makar weren’t that level and went top 10 so that’s a dumb general rule no offense.

Mrtka isn’t even their level of prospect. But once you get later in the top 10 picks this year I just think you are throwing darts. 6’6 guy RHD with some brains and untapped potential makes as much sense as any dart throw to me.
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
Hughes and Makar weren’t that level and went top 10 so that’s a dumb general rule no offense.

Mrtka isn’t even their level of prospect. But once you get later in the top 10 picks this year I just think you are throwing darts. 6’6 guy RHD with some brains and untapped potential makes as much sense as any dart throw to me.
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I think that's actually more proof of my point, but I digress. I'm not taking a Mrtka with a top ten pick. I'd rather focus on offensive upside and IQ than size.
 
Gurglesons said:
I think that's actually more proof of my point, but I digress. I'm not taking a Mrtka with a top ten pick. I'd rather focus on offensive upside and IQ than size.
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Well since I’m not a mind reader: you said you wouldn’t take a d top 10 unless they are Schaefer or Dahlin type prospects. I understood that as your point. My rebuttal: The best 2 defenders in the NHL were top 10 picks that weren’t the first defender off the board.

But whatever. I know how you can be difficult :laugh:

Mrtka is a bet on IQ, fyi. Universally praised for his intelligence.
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
Well since I’m not a mind reader: you said you wouldn’t take a d top 10 unless they are Schaefer or Dahlin type prospects. I understood that as your point. My rebuttal: The best 2 defenders in the NHL were top 10 picks that weren’t the first defender off the board.

But whatever. I know how you can be difficult :laugh:

Mrtka is a bet on IQ, fyi. Universally praised for his intelligence.
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Yes, exactly. It's a crap shoot.

I think projecting defenders in the NHL is nearly as hard as projecting goaltenders.
 
Gurglesons said:
Yes, exactly. It's a crap shoot.

I think projecting defenders in the NHL is nearly as hard as projecting goaltenders.
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Well now you’ve backed yourself in a circle where you are agreeing with my original point of “late top 10 is all dart throws and he’s a solid dart throw”

So I’m glad you agree.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
Well now you’ve backed yourself in a circle where you are agreeing with my original point of “late top 10 is all dart throws and he’s a solid dart throw”

So I’m glad you agree.
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I'm not backing myself into a circle at all.

I would not draft Mrtka with a top 10 pick. Seems like a way you end up with a Brian Dumoulin while teams around you get Eklund who could be a top line winger.

I am not drafting a defenseman in the top 10 unless he has top pairing offensive upside.
 
Gurglesons said:
I'm not backing myself into a circle at all.

I would not draft Mrtka with a top 10 pick. Seems like a way you end up with a Brian Dumoulin while teams around you get Eklund who could be a top line winger.

I am not drafting a defenseman in the top 10 unless he has top pairing offensive upside.
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Wasn’t your initial statement big dawg

You also said you would take a Whitney outcome for our pick Thursday

At least try to be consistent if you’re gonna be argumentative and smug 24/7. Would go a long way in winning the arguments :laugh:
 
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