Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

[Andy99]

They’re closer to 7 than 8, Anaheim is 1 point back with 2 games in hand

These other teams are not dumb enough to keep winning as much as the Pens lol, a team so much older in key pieces we should be desperate to get as high a draft pick as possible…Boston, Anaheim, Detroit and Columbus are in danger of ending up higher in draft order than the Pens…we could easily end up 10 or 11 if we keep winning as much as we have been

 

[Andy99]

No they aren't, Anaheim has a higher point% than the Penguins. The Penguins are currently sitting at #7, they're tied in point% with Boston and Boston has an advantage in regulation wins over them.

Is regulation wins a determining factor in draft order when there is a points tie? Not sure

 

[Empoleon8771]

Is regulation wins a determining factor in draft order when there is a points tie? Not sure

Yes RW is the tiebreaker in this case.

Either way, the Penguins hot streak has taken them from the #5 or #6 spot to the #7 or #8 spot. They're not missing out on Misa or Schaefer due to the hot streak, they're going from Frondell to Eklund. They were never in a spot to be in the top-4 and would have had to out-lose the Sabres to get to #4. They were never in reach of being in the top-3.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Had they maintained their winning% from before the deadline after the deadline, they would be sitting at #5. They wouldn't be in the #4 spot because Buffalo keeps losing too.

You're fretting over the difference between Frondell at #5 versus Eklund at #7. It's nonsensical. They were never behind Buffalo in the standings to be in the #4 spot and they're far too ahead of Chicago, San Jose and Nashville to even have a possibility at a top-3 spot without a lottery win.

They'd be 1 point back with less RW and BUF having 3 games in hand.

They're also tied for 9th right now w/ Boston.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They'd be 1 point back with less RW and BUF having 3 games in hand.

They're also tied for 9th right now w/ Boston.

Draft order is determined by point%, not points when teams haven't played the same amount of games. They are in 7th right now.

Buffalo is at a .449 point% right now for the #4 spot. The Penguins are at a .479 point% for the #7 spot. Had the Penguins maintained their pre-deadline performance after the deadline, they'd be in either the #5 or #6 spot still. They still wouldn't have caught the Sabres and the Flyers may have jumped them in the draft order as well.

Your complaint is nonsensical. They've moved from #6 to #7 instead of #6 to #5 as a result of their post-deadline winning streak. Those are the factual numbers.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

You're trying to skew the numbers to fit a narrative, that isn't even a good one. I already showed the difference between 6 and 8 yesterday.

The Pens were on course to have a legit chance at #4 (prolly #5) and are now on course to have a legit chance at 9th (prolly #8). If you won't acknowledge that there's a pretty decent difference between the 4/5 pick and the 8/9 pick then there isn't much to discuss with you in a draft thread.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I wouldn't mind the fact that we were drafting so high yet out of the playoffs normally, but the fact that the East is so bad that we could have conceivably made the playoffs with another set of relatively minor changes just adds insult to injury.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here are the exact numbers for it. At the deadline, the Penguins were 24-31-10 for 58 points in 65 games. Continuing at that pace has them at 6.25 points in the 7 games since then. Rounding up because you can't get a quarter of a point, that would have them would have them at 65 points in 72 games today. That would take them from currently in the #7 draft pick to the #6 spot, since Philly would hold the tiebreaker on them for the #5 spot.

It's silly that this is even a discussion. It would be one thing if they were in a position to get #1 and they were playing themselves out of the #1 pick. But they're going from a likely #5 or #6 pick to a likely #7 or #8 pick. Literally who cares?

You're trying to skew the numbers to fit a narrative, that isn't even a good one. I already showed the difference between 6 and 8 yesterday.

The Pens were on course to have a legit chance at #4 (prolly #5) and are now on course to have a legit chance at 9th (prolly #8). If you acknowledge that that there's a pretty decent difference between the 4/5 pick and the 8/9 pick then there isn't much to discuss with you in a draft thread.

I'm not "skewing the numbers", I'm providing the exact numbers for how things have changed.

They have gone from #6 to #7. That is a fact. Calling it "a legit chance at #4" to "a legit change at 9th" is actually "skewing the numbers".

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't think it's like a franchise shattering thing or anything like that, but going from potentially landing a significant guy Martone, Hagens, or Frondell to guys considered to be more long shots like Mrtka or McQueen stings.

This team's not in the position to really brush off unforced errors like that, and I do think it's an unforced error. But we gotta see how the lotto plays out and how the guys develop before really being disappointed or not. Right now, though? Kinda annoying.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Anyhow it is very unlikely we will win the lottery so I look forward to our new North American Poolparty.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

lol at rounding .25 up. There you go skewing the numbers again.

64 points with BUF having 3 games in hand and the tie-breaker to make up 2 points is 100% a legit chance at 4th.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think it's like a franchise shattering thing or anything like that, but going from potentially landing a significant guy Martone, Hagens, or Frondell to guys considered to be more long shots like Mrtka or McQueen stings.

This team's not in the position to really brush off unforced errors like that, and I do think it's an unforced error. But we gotta see how the lotto plays out and how the guys develop before really being disappointed or not. Right now, though? Kinda annoying.

But again, that's not happening. That is both not who the Penguins were in line to draft before the hot streak nor who they're in line to draft now.

They've gone from likely #5 or #6 (most likely #6) to likely #7 or #8 (most likely #7). That's Frondell or Desnoyers versus Eklund or O'Brien, and frankly you could argue that those 4 guys could go anywhere between #5 and #8 and have a case.

 

[SEALBound]

I was ice cold on him after watching a shift-by-shift where I didn't think he played very well at all but in clips from later in the year it seems like it was an anomaly and he also got better as the year went on. I'm not against picking him now. Ideally a forward falls, though, or we get him with the Rangers pick.

Seems like he's gonna go in the 8-12 range though. He was in the 10-20 range even before his hot finish.

Yeah, not a guy I was high on. I think in a deeper draft, he's a 15-20 guy. That doesn't mean he's a bad player though. I just don't get "future top pairing" vibes from him which is always tough when you're talking a sub top 10 pick.

This draft is very reminiscent of the 2006 draft where you have a #1ov dman followed by a gluttony of forwards. And the 2-5 are nearly interchangeable based on what specific attributes or roles you want or need. Granted, I think Misa is a step above Hagens, Martone, and Frondell but still.

After 4 (maaaaybe 5), I think it's wide open on who teams will covet. If the draft were tomorrow...

SJS - Schaefer 100%
Chitcago - Misa 100%
Nashville - With Trotz...I have NO idea. You'd think Martone is the easy pick but I could see them taking Hagens. They need a center more than a wing.
Buffalo - Hags or Martone aka whoever Nashville doesn't take. They are set on defense, they go forward.
Philly - they need everything. They also like rough tough physical guys so it's tough for me to automatically assume it's Frondell here. I could see Desnoyers, McQueen, and Mrtka all in the mix here.
Seattle - Here's where I think we see the first "draft based on needs" shift. They are set up front honestly - both on the NHL roster and prospect wise. They need defense. I think we could see Jackson Smith or Mrtka go here.
Pittsburgh - This could drop Frondell to us.

 

[Empoleon8771]

lol at rounding .25 up. There you go skewing the numbers again.

64 points with BUF having 3 games in hand and the tie-breaker to make up 2 points is 100% a legit chance at 4th.

And even in this magical scenario where the Penguins were in that spot, Philly is 1-8-1 in their last 10 and would likely jump the Penguins in the draft for the #4 spot anyway.

Your argument here is stupid. You're bitching and moaning about falling back from #6 to #7 with being unlikely to pick #4 instead of jumping from #6 to #5 with a possibility at getting #4.

Complaining about getting the #8 draft pick instead of the #5 draft pick really shows how long it has been for Penguins fans to actually experience a rebuild.

 

[Andy99]

Yeah, not a guy I was high on. I think in a deeper draft, he's a 15-20 guy. That doesn't mean he's a bad player though. I just don't get "future top pairing" vibes from him which is always tough when you're talking a sub top 10 pick.

This draft is very reminiscent of the 2006 draft where you have a #1ov dman followed by a gluttony of forwards. And the 2-5 are nearly interchangeable based on what specific attributes or roles you want or need. Granted, I think Misa is a step above Hagens, Martone, and Frondell but still.

After 4 (maaaaybe 5), I think it's wide open on who teams will covet. If the draft were tomorrow...

SJS - Schaefer 100%
Chitcago - Misa 100%
Nashville - With Trotz...I have NO idea. You'd think Martone is the easy pick but I could see them taking Hagens. They need a center more than a wing.
Buffalo - Hags or Martone aka whoever Nashville doesn't take. They are set on defense, they go forward.
Philly - they need everything. They also like rough tough physical guys so it's tough for me to automatically assume it's Frondell here. I could see Desnoyers, McQueen, and Mrtka all in the mix here.
Seattle - Here's where I think we see the first "draft based on needs" shift. They are set up front honestly - both on the NHL roster and prospect wise. They need defense. I think we could see Jackson Smith or Mrtka go here.
Pittsburgh - This could drop Frondell to us.

There’s going to be at least another team or three a head of us…

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

And even in this magical scenario where the Penguins were in that spot, Philly is 1-8-1 in their last 10 and would likely jump the Penguins in the draft for the #4 spot anyway.

Your argument here is stupid. You're bitching and moaning about falling back from #6 to #7 with being unlikely to pick #4 instead of jumping from #6 to #5 with a possibility at getting #4.

And you're preteding like Boston isn't in free fall as well. You talking in absolutes to fit your narrative that it doesn't matter is just silly. Even if Philly drops, that still would have left us at 5, not 6.

You being so adamant that it's 6 to 7 and not 4/5 to 8/9 is why your 'arguments' hold no water.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Just no Roger McQueen. Please.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

But again, that's not happening. That is both not who the Penguins were in line to draft before the hot streak nor who they're in line to draft now.

They've gone from likely #5 or #6 (most likely #6) to likely #7 or #8 (most likely #7). That's Frondell or Desnoyers versus Eklund or O'Brien, and frankly you could argue that those 4 guys could go anywhere between #5 and #8 and have a case.

It's not happening because of the hot streak they've been on, and that's the whole point as to why people are annoyed. At 5th, they'd be getting one of Martone, Hagens, or Frondell. Schaefer 1st, Misa 2nd (or vice versa), some combination of Martone, Hagens, and Frondell likely ending up 3rd, 4th and 5th.

I dunno why you're railing so hard against people being annoyed that the team's suddenly winning detrimental games when the only goal now is to move up the draft as much as possible. We can argue in circles about the merits of landing an Eklund or O'Brien or Mrtka or whatever but the universal consensus is that this draft has a big four in Schaefer, Misa, Hagens and Martone, then a relatively substantial drop off with guys like Frondell and Desnoyers being the next up, then a muddle mess of whatever from then on.

It objectively sucks shit that this team's winning games now. /shrug

 

[Malkinstheman]

Seems like there's a ton of guys that have been rising over the past few months. The top-10 in general looks pretty solid now

 

[SEALBound]

Hey guys, remember, there is a draft lottery.

https://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/image-82.png

Even at 6 or 7, we still get a shot at 1 or 2ov (yes 3ov too but that's pretty minor).

Dropping from 6 to 7 is basically losing a 1% better chance to get Schaefer or Misa. Oh NOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[Empoleon8771]

And you're preteding like Boston isn't in free fall as well. You talking in absolutes to fit your narrative that it doesn't matter is just silly. Even if Philly drops, that still would have left us at 5, not 6.

You being so adamant that it's 6 to 7 and not 4/5 to 8/9 is why your 'arguments' hold no water.

Because how their pick has actually changed is 6 to 7. You're making up a scenario of 4/5 to 8/9 when that isn't what has happened because you want to bitch about it.

They were at #6 at the deadline and are sitting at #7 right now. That is factually how their draft position has changed with their recent hot streak.

It's not happening because of the hot streak they've been on, and that's the whole point as to why people are annoyed. At 5th, they'd be getting one of Martone, Hagens, or Frondell. Schaefer 1st, Misa 2nd (or vice versa), some combination of Martone, Hagens, and Frondell likely ending up 3rd, 4th and 5th.

I dunno why you're railing so hard against people being annoyed that the team's suddenly winning detrimental games when the only goal now is to move up the draft as much as possible. We can argue in circles about the merits of landing an Eklund or O'Brien or Mrtka or whatever but the universal consensus is that this draft has a big four in Schaefer, Misa, Hagens and Martone, then a relatively substantial drop off with guys like Frondell and Desnoyers being the next up, then a muddle mess of whatever from then on.

It objectively sucks shit that this team's winning games now. /shrug

Because their draft pick has literally moved 1 spot and there is no tangible difference in the prospects in the range they're going to pick in.

People are making up a scenario that they're going from Martone or Hagens to Mrtka or McQueen which is factually not what has happened. They were in line to pick Frondell or Desnoyers at #5 or #6, and are now in line to draft Eklund or O'Brien at #7 or #8. And it wouldn't be all that surprising for those 4 to end up in any order from #5 to #8, or even earlier or later.

I'm "railing so hard" against this argument because people are acting like they're playing themselves out of the #1 pick. At most, they fall from like #5 to #8 with all of the prospects in that range being pretty similar. This isn't falling from Evgeni Malkin at #2 to Cam Barker at #3.

 

[Jacob]

Just no Roger McQueen. Please.

Yeah not worth the risk.

 

[Gurglesons]

Exactly what is happening is why a group of us were pissed they kept Rakell.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Because how their pick has actually changed is 6 to 7. You're making up a scenario of 4/5 to 8/9 when that isn't what has happened because you want to bitch about it.



Because their draft pick has literally moved 1 spot and there is no tangible difference in the prospects in the range they're going to pick in.

The point is that they're moving in the wrong direction. It's the same situation as being right on the cusp of a WC spot but you start bombing games and losing ground. The margin for error is razor thin.

The difference between sitting 5th and 7th is more significant than you're making it out to be imo. If a team up high makes a reach pick for McQueen because of his frame (as an example), and one of the big four drops a couple spots, you're still shit outta luck if you're sitting 7th.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Just no Roger McQueen. Please.

GMs will see his height and lose their minds but I think, at best, you're probably getting like a Bjugstad there. Maybe I'm wrong and McQueen makes me eat a ton of crow in a handful of years, but the guy seems like the poster boy for a bait pick.