Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

[The Old Master]

There really needs to be higher expectation than just drafting “an NHLer.”

Matt Nieto and Cale Makar are both NHLers.

there are people that hit the lotto all the time, but you're not that bright to expect it.

 

[SomeDude]

there are people that hit the lotto all the time, but you're not that bright to expect it.

I'd gladly do mock drafts where I pick 10-25 and you get the entire 2nd round and we'll see who ends up with more impact players.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Imagine being Boston in the first round of that McDavid draft.

Anyway, I'm looking at this old spreadsheet of mine. Will try to update it for the 2010 to 2019 drafts. I want to keep it to just ten years of drafts. And I don't want to use too recent of a draft as players are still developing. I'd say a 5 year buffer is reasonable.

edit 1: I need to double check some stuff and pretty it up but here's an updated chart:

edit 2: ok so the above is for a "pessimistic" view. below is for the actuals

 

[Randy Butternubs]

New lore just dropped

 

[Mr. T]

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

I have a lot of work to do right now. Who's going to do the inevitable and photoshop Randy's work into Chad's frame?

 

[Jacob]

According to my calculations 1 1st overall is roughly equal to 2 3rd round picks.

 

[PensFutures]

Dubas needs to have a One Red Paperclip moment. Trade the 6th and 7th for another 5th, trade the four 5ths for two 4ths, and then use two 4ths and 2 3rds to get a couple 2nds. Send both 2nds and 4th to STL for their 1st. 3 picks in the top 70-75, trade Acciari, and call it a draft.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

According to my calculations 1 1st overall is roughly equal to 2 3rd round picks.

I didn't know you were an optimist.

 

[Deport Ogie]

According to my calculations 1 1st overall is roughly equal to 2 3rd round picks.

1f 1 1 = 2 3 and 3 ass = 1 g then how many asses do you receive for an early 2nd rounder?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

1f 1 1 = 2 3 and 3 ass = 1 g then how many asses do you receive for an early 2nd rounder?

Oooh I know this one! The answer is "Kevin Hayes!"

EDIT: Ah shit I screwed up. The correct answer is actually "Jake Guentzel"

 

[Empoleon8771]

McKenzie just came out with his top-10 for this draft:

1. Schaefer
2. Hagens
3. Misa
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Smith

Very center heavy at the top of the draft, with Hagens, Misa, Frondell, Desnoyers, McQueen and O'Brien listed as centers. I've liked Eklund when I've looked into him in the past but it seems like there are quite a few good options. I think my preferred picks are either Desnoyers or McQueen just from looking at stats, although McQueen missing a ton of this year due to injury definitely scares me.

Desnoyers is a guy that looks extremely interesting to me. There are some scouting reports that describe him more as a complementary piece that won't be a top end offensive skill guy in the NHL, but he's apparently a really good all around player that is also producing like crazy in the Q this year (60 points in 37 games). He's also young for this draft, he's an April 2007 birthday.

He seems to have a 2-way top-6 center upside, which seems like it would be a nice pick if they're picking at like #8.

 

[Jacob]

Frondell sure isn’t scoring much but I watched a few shift-by-shifts and he looks pretty good. Kind of a stocky build and plays a physical game.

 

[PensFutures]

McKenzie just came out with his top-10 for this draft:

1. Schaefer
2. Hagens
3. Misa
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Smith

Very center heavy at the top of the draft

I think thats very good news for the Pens. Getting a legit top 6 center prospect would fill a gaping hole in our system IMO.

 

[Ulf5]

I think thats very good news for the Pens. Getting a legit top 6 center prospect would fill a gaping hole in our system IMO.

So we'll be drafting 11 OA?

 

[PensFutures]

So we'll be drafting 11 OA?

Knowing this team, we will pick right after all the C are gone, draft Spence and turn him into a pk'ing 3RW.

 

[eXile3]

New lore just dropped

Did it move at all with the added years? Doesn’t seem like it did but was curious.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

EP Updated their rankings too:

1 - 10 (1 is at the top)

Schaefer
Hagens
Misa
Martone
McQueen
Smith
Eklund
Bear
Lakovic
Schmidt

edit: they have an image of their rankings (HM = honorable mention)

Did it move at all with the added years? Doesn’t seem like it did but was curious.

The optimistic line shifted a little bit higher but that's likely because I used a different trendline equation (polynomial vs. natural log). Overall I'd say no significant difference.

 

[Jacob]

I think we’re getting a good player regardless it’s just a question of them being ready immediately (1-4, maybe 5 or 6) or being 1 year away.

 

[Gumbercules]

McKenzie just came out with his top-10 for this draft:

1. Schaefer
2. Hagens
3. Misa
4. Martone
5. Frondell
6. Desnoyers
7. McQueen
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Smith

Very center heavy at the top of the draft, with Hagens, Misa, Frondell, Desnoyers, McQueen and O'Brien listed as centers. I've liked Eklund when I've looked into him in the past but it seems like there are quite a few good options. I think my preferred picks are either Desnoyers or McQueen just from looking at stats, although McQueen missing a ton of this year due to injury definitely scares me.

Desnoyers is a guy that looks extremely interesting to me. There are some scouting reports that describe him more as a complementary piece that won't be a top end offensive skill guy in the NHL, but he's apparently a really good all around player that is also producing like crazy in the Q this year (60 points in 37 games). He's also young for this draft, he's an April 2007 birthday.

He seems to have a 2-way top-6 center upside, which seems like it would be a nice pick if they're picking at like #8.

I've seen Desnoyers a number of times, and your assessment isn't too far off. He doesn't wow with electric skating or puck skills, but plays a 200ft game that you really don't see that often for a 17 year old. His offensive output in Moncton should be taken with a grain of salt given the league and how strong his line mates (Pekarcik and Sumpf) and team in general are, but he's not a slouch in and around the net and he can beat goalies from deep with his shot which isn't all that common at that age. I'd be happy if the Pens had him, but top ten seems a bit high, however, i have little insight on the most of the draft class, so the ranking could be perfectly appropriate.

At the U-18 he started as a 12/13 forward and moved up in the lineup (in part due to injury) and was playing big minutes by the end of it as a 16 year old and Canada ended up winning the tournament.

 

[Jacob]

I've seen Desnoyers a number of times, and your assessment isn't too far off. He doesn't wow with electric skating or puck skills, but plays a 200ft game that you really don't see that often for a 17 year old. His offensive output in Moncton should be taken with a grain of salt given the league and how strong his line mates (Pekarcik and Sumpf) and team in general are, but he's not a slouch in and around the net and he can beat goalies from deep with his shot which isn't all that common at that age. I'd be happy if the Pens had him, but top ten seems a bit high, however, i have little insight on the most of the draft class, so the ranking could be perfectly appropriate.

At the U-18 he started as a 12/13 forward and moved up in the lineup (in part due to injury) and was playing big minutes by the end of it as a 16 year old and Canada ended up winning the tournament.

Kinda sounds like Mercer or Couturier.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I've seen Desnoyers a number of times, and your assessment isn't too far off. He doesn't wow with electric skating or puck skills, but plays a 200ft game that you really don't see that often for a 17 year old. His offensive output in Moncton should be taken with a grain of salt given the league and how strong his line mates (Pekarcik and Sumpf) and team in general are, but he's not a slouch in and around the net and he can beat goalies from deep with his shot which isn't all that common at that age. I'd be happy if the Pens had him, but top ten seems a bit high, however, i have little insight on the most of the draft class, so the ranking could be perfectly appropriate.

At the U-18 he started as a 12/13 forward and moved up in the lineup (in part due to injury) and was playing big minutes by the end of it as a 16 year old and Canada ended up winning the tournament.

Yeah I agree with Jacob above, that sounds a bit like Couturier to me. Looking back at Couturier's writeup as a prospect:

After struggling to take his offensive production to the "next level", there are some concerns about his potential as a first line center. While he isn’t going to be a dominant offensive player, Couturier is a very capable offensive forward who has the size to create space for himself at the next level as well.

Couturier also had huge numbers in his draft year (96 points in 58 games) while playing on a line with Palat, so I think the comparison has some validity as well. Desnoyers doesn't quite have the size of Couturier but they're not that far off, I see Desnoyers listed at 6'2" and 172 lbs while Couturier was listed at 6'4" and 195 lbs.

He definitely seems more like great 2C/decent 1C upside, but I would be really happy with a Couturier upside C prospect if they're picking in the 8-12 range. If they're somehow higher, then I think you aim for a higher upside. Couturier himself was the #8 pick back in 2011 I believe.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

EP says Desnoyers is way more of a playmaker than a shooter. His stats suggest otherwise but maybe they mean at the NHL level. He seems like a safe pick but one you hope takes the next step.

 

[The Old Master]

EP Updated their rankings too:

1 - 10 (1 is at the top)

Schaefer
Hagens
Misa
Martone
McQueen
Smith
Eklund
Bear
Lakovic
Schmidt

edit: they have an image of their rankings (HM = honorable mention)

The optimistic line shifted a little bit higher but that's likely because I used a different trendline equation (polynomial vs. natural log). Overall I'd say no significant difference.

no Russian players?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

no Russian players?

They said something about the Russians but I'll have to look again tomorrow.