Prospect Info: 2025 Draft discussion

[Le Magnifique 66]

9OA and we'll take some guy with skating issues

He will be ready by 2036

 

[Ulf5]

He will be ready by 2036[b/]for 6 minutes a night on the 4th line under Sully.
[/b]

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm heading to Erie in January to watch a game. Hopefully I get to see Schaefer in person.

Can you also keep an eye on Spence? He's another guy projected to go high and I'm curious for your insights on him. He may be an option if the Penguins 1st falls in that 7-10 range.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Can you also keep an eye on Spence? He's another guy projected to go high and I'm curious for your insights on him. He may be an option if the Penguins 1st falls in that 7-10 range.

I'll be drunk but okay.

Then again, how do we know that professional scouts aren't throwing back beers?

 

[eXile3]

I don't see why that would be necessary. Just as a quick example, Victor Eklund has 15 points in 20 games in the Allsvenskan as a 17 year old and he's projected to go around 10. He's a guy I'd absolutely take with their 1st if they're sitting around 8-10. Ryabkin and Eklund would be the main 2 guys I'd be looking at if the Penguins are sitting in that 7-10 range.

I think the CHL classes look pretty middling in that range but there's still some good Euro talent.

Ryabkin is exactly the kind of prospect I mean. He’s bounced around from the MHL to the KHL and his production has regressed considerably in his draft year.

If you want further evidence look at McGroaty and Brunicke. One was taken mid 1st and the other a mid 2nd, but they have similar value. Especially considering Brunicke is two years behind McGroaty.

Mid first round picks you get guys like Yager and McGroaty. Once you get past the elite talent guys it’s a crapshoot and the separation between the first and second rounds just aren’t as apparent as people think.

 

[chethejet]

Pens need to fill the system with talent. Dubas is adding picks for that. I do see trades after this season to add to that. Respective of the 3 wins, Pens are a non playoff team to me and then it becomes where the slotting is post lottery.

 

[HandshakeLine]

That incredibly dumb Pens PR Kobasew post in another thread reminded me to go back and look at some earlier drafts and man, it's kind of wild drafts like 2001 were where you have guys that are clear consensus top 5 picks (like Kovachoooooo and AGM of the Future, Jason Spezza) and all the draft write ups go on about how deep the draft is and then... you look at how they actually turned out and you realize that scouts and scouting organizations are snake oil salesmen.

Also, Kovchewwwwww (or Spezza for that matter) is such a great example of how you cannot simply build a franchise around a franchise quality player without all the other necessary organizational components and expect success.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Also, Kovchewwwwww is such a great example of how you cannot simply build a franchise around a franchise quality player without all the other necessary organizational components and expect success.

NJD were so close to winning the Cup that one season. Crazy that Hedberg was on that team and was better than Brodeur.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah 2012, was a weird year.

Some bum won the Art Ross that year too.

 

[Freeptop]

Ryabkin is exactly the kind of prospect I mean. He’s bounced around from the MHL to the KHL and his production has regressed considerably in his draft year.

If you want further evidence look at McGroaty and Brunicke. One was taken mid 1st and the other a mid 2nd, but they have similar value. Especially considering Brunicke is two years behind McGroaty.

Mid first round picks you get guys like Yager and McGroaty. Once you get past the elite talent guys it’s a crapshoot and the separation between the first and second rounds just aren’t as apparent as people think.

Much of the hype of the "first round pick" (and the "second round pick" for that matter) was born in a time when the League only had around 16-20 teams.
There are now 32 teams, so a significant portion of the "first round" used to be "second round" picks, and so on and so forth. But somehow, the hype hasn't adjusted to that fact.

That incredibly dumb Pens PR Kobasew post in another thread reminded me to go back and look at some earlier drafts and man, it's kind of wild drafts like 2001 were where you have guys that are clear consensus top 5 picks (like Kovachoooooo and AGM of the Future, Jason Spezza) and all the draft write ups go on about how deep the draft is and then... you look at how they actually turned out and you realize that scouts and scouting organizations are snake oil salesmen.

Also, Kovchewwwwww (or Spezza for that matter) is such a great example of how you cannot simply build a franchise around a franchise quality player without all the other necessary organizational components and expect success.

I agree with the conclusion on this, but I did want to point out that 2001 can be regarded as a deep draft, depending on what you consider "deep". If you're looking solely for elite talent? No. But if you're looking to get NHL players? 2001 produced multiple players who had 200+ game careers in every round all the way down to the ninth round. From the 4th through the 8th, there were 4-6 such players each round.

I also think there's the context of the time to take into account, as well. The dropoff in talent was a lot more stark in the 2000 draft, and even the 2002 draft. And that's still coming off the heels of the late 90s, which had some truly abysmal draft years. So in the context of the time, yeah, that was a pretty deep draft.

I'll spare you the wall of text I started to write about how there was a sea change in the draft following the lockout that has resulted in the talent being compressed into the top, this post is already enough tl;dr as it is

 

[HandshakeLine]

Much of the hype of the "first round pick" (and the "second round pick" for that matter) was born in a time when the League only had around 16-20 teams.
There are now 32 teams, so a significant portion of the "first round" used to be "second round" picks, and so on and so forth. But somehow, the hype hasn't adjusted to that fact.

Yeah, I think there's still a bit of a reliance on really outdated conventional wisdom regarding how teams used to draft, and where they used to draft. That said, I think it's useful often to go back and look at how a lot of "sure shot" 5OA players were obviously not going to pan-out in hindsight, if for nothing else than to help spot warning signs for future drafts and to lower our own expectations a bit.

I agree with the conclusion on this, but I did want to point out that 2001 can be regarded as a deep draft, depending on what you consider "deep". If you're looking solely for elite talent? No. But if you're looking to get NHL players? 2001 produced multiple players who had 200+ game careers in every round all the way down to the ninth round. From the 4th through the 8th, there were 4-6 such players each round.

I also think there's the context of the time to take into account, as well. The dropoff in talent was a lot more stark in the 2000 draft, and even the 2002 draft. And that's still coming off the heels of the late 90s, which had some truly abysmal draft years. So in the context of the time, yeah, that was a pretty deep draft.

For sure. I get the argument that it's not about the calibre of players, but the amount of players who make it to the big show. That said, there's a lot of players in that 2001 draft who played like a season and a half for terrible teams before going back to where they came from. Looking at you, Chistov.

I'll spare you the wall of text I started to write about how there was a sea change in the draft following the lockout that has resulted in the talent being compressed into the top, this post is already enough tl;dr as it is

I'd be interested to read it, honest.

 

[Freeptop]

I'd be interested to read it, honest.

This is purely a personal theory of mine, but it's based on looking at the results of drafts over the years.

The gist of it is basically: following the lockout, the game changed, and smaller players with a lot of talent weren't automatically going to fail. Likewise, big, tough players weren't going to automatically succeed. (Granted, neither of those were ever true to begin with, but I'm talking about the general "hockey wisdom" of the time).

This meant there was a shift as to where such players are taken in the draft. While teams still want to pick agitators with some skill, or big, "tough" defensemen, they don't get picked nearly as high as they used to be (no spending a 5OV on Raffi Torres, these days, for example). As those players fall further down, they're usually replaced with more talented players.

A "deep" draft in years past meant that you could easily have 3-4 players (or more!) in the top 10 who ended up as bottom-six forwards, or bottom pairing defensemen, or even outright busts. The "depth" in the past was a result of many early picks being used on suboptimal prospects, which pushed more talented players lower in the draft, giving an illusion of more depth than there really was.

Teams have adjusted to the "new NHL" that came out of the lockout, and we get fewer of those suboptimal picks so high in the draft, which results in compressing much of the talent higher up. This means there are fewer "diamond in the rough" picks lower down the draft, to boot.

There are definitely additional factors as well: the League overall makes more money, which means more teams invest more in drafting. The Cap also puts more emphasis on having players contribute while on ELCs, thus motivating better drafts as well. So scouting has gotten better, overall.

This isn't a perfect theory, of course. I'm sure there's plenty of holes to pick in it. But as a general concept, I think I'm on to something here

 

[Jacob]

This is purely a personal theory of mine, but it's based on looking at the results of drafts over the years.

The gist of it is basically: following the lockout, the game changed, and smaller players with a lot of talent weren't automatically going to fail. Likewise, big, tough players weren't going to automatically succeed. (Granted, neither of those were ever true to begin with, but I'm talking about the general "hockey wisdom" of the time).

This meant there was a shift as to where such players are taken in the draft. While teams still want to pick agitators with some skill, or big, "tough" defensemen, they don't get picked nearly as high as they used to be (no spending a 5OV on Raffi Torres, these days, for example). As those players fall further down, they're usually replaced with more talented players.

A "deep" draft in years past meant that you could easily have 3-4 players (or more!) in the top 10 who ended up as bottom-six forwards, or bottom pairing defensemen, or even outright busts. The "depth" in the past was a result of many early picks being used on suboptimal prospects, which pushed more talented players lower in the draft, giving an illusion of more depth than there really was.

Teams have adjusted to the "new NHL" that came out of the lockout, and we get fewer of those suboptimal picks so high in the draft, which results in compressing much of the talent higher up. This means there are fewer "diamond in the rough" picks lower down the draft, to boot.

There are definitely additional factors as well: the League overall makes more money, which means more teams invest more in drafting. The Cap also puts more emphasis on having players contribute while on ELCs, thus motivating better drafts as well. So scouting has gotten better, overall.

This isn't a perfect theory, of course. I'm sure there's plenty of holes to pick in it. But as a general concept, I think I'm on to something here

I can agree with that. Letang probably would’ve been a top 15 pick if the lockout happened like 2 years earlier. Mike Rupp probably would’ve been a late rounder if he was 10 years younger.

 

[cygnus47]

...

This isn't a perfect theory, of course. I'm sure there's plenty of holes to pick in it. But as a general concept, I think I'm on to something here

Yeah specifics aside, so much of the old drafting stuff was just guys being lazy and going by their gut or random xenophobic ideas. Detroit just bothered to scout Europe and regularly picked up superstars in late rounds that no-one else had even heard of. Small guys that were absolute jets got passed over because their scalp wasn't at the right number. That sort of stuff doesn't really happen anymore. They still overcomplicate it with "old school hockey wisdom", but much less than they used to.

 

[PensFutures]

I'm heading to Erie in January to watch a game. Hopefully I get to see Schaefer in person.

You going to Mcdavid jersey retirement night? I think its the 10th

 

[PensFutures]

Can you also keep an eye on Spence? He's another guy projected to go high and I'm curious for your insights on him. He may be an option if the Penguins 1st falls in that 7-10 range.

I may go in 2 weeks when they play Saginaw so I can see Misa as well. Assuming they dont close I-79 due to lake effect weather again.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah specifics aside, so much of the old drafting stuff was just guys being lazy and going by their gut or random xenophobic ideas. Detroit just bothered to scout Europe and regularly picked up superstars in late rounds that no-one else had even heard of. Small guys that were absolute jets got passed over because their scalp wasn't at the right number. That sort of stuff doesn't really happen anymore. They still overcomplicate it with "old school hockey wisdom", but much less than they used to.

I mean, it does still happen, just that different kinds of players now fall or are picked later and for different reasons-- Kaprizov, for example, fell mostly because scouts just wrote him off as a Russian kid on a bad KHL team.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I mean, it does still happen, just that different kinds of players now fall or are picked later and for different reasons-- Kaprizov, for example, fell mostly because scouts just wrote him off as a Russian kid on a bad KHL team.

I thought that was Panarin.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I thought that was Panarin.

Panarin was undrafted because people weren't sure he would physically develop and then when he did, people were unsure if he would come over. Kaprizov IIRC fell because people thought his production on Metallurg Novokuznetsk was a fluke and nobody was really scouting them except for Minnesota. Famously, they only looked at him because their return flight home was delayed because of the 2014 wildfires.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Also, it is wild that Kaprizov was drafted 10 years ago.

 

[Jacob]

Martone has skating questions. I mean not to me but some question it in the prospects thread. Sounds like our guy.

The nice thing about Martone is that even if he's not the best player in the draft he might be the most physically ready because he's a little older and he's already like 6'3" 215, and being a winger helps too.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The nice thing about Martone is that even if he's not the best player in the draft he might be the most physically ready because he's a little older and he's already like 6'3" 215, and being a winger helps too.

If we were looking at having a good piece or two already, I would say that's fine. But I'm worried they'll pick a player to give Sid a winger for the last year or so and we'll end up passing up a more logical piece for a rebuild.

 

[SEALBound]

Ryabkin is exactly the kind of prospect I mean. He’s bounced around from the MHL to the KHL and his production has regressed considerably in his draft year.

If you want further evidence look at McGroaty and Brunicke. One was taken mid 1st and the other a mid 2nd, but they have similar value. Especially considering Brunicke is two years behind McGroaty.

Mid first round picks you get guys like Yager and McGroaty. Once you get past the elite talent guys it’s a crapshoot and the separation between the first and second rounds just aren’t as apparent as people think.

Last year was really interesting too but the consensus was "after 10ov or so...there is ZERO consensus". 1-10 were fairly set, order not withstanding. Then from 10 to 50, it was the same level of player with team lists varying wildly. If there's a draft where you see duds in the first, studs in the 2nd, and steals in the 3rd, it was the 2024 draft.

That incredibly dumb Pens PR Kobasew post in another thread reminded me to go back and look at some earlier drafts and man, it's kind of wild drafts like 2001 were where you have guys that are clear consensus top 5 picks (like Kovachoooooo and AGM of the Future, Jason Spezza) and all the draft write ups go on about how deep the draft is and then... you look at how they actually turned out and you realize that scouts and scouting organizations are snake oil salesmen.

Also, Kovchewwwwww (or Spezza for that matter) is such a great example of how you cannot simply build a franchise around a franchise quality player without all the other necessary organizational components and expect success.

Which is what I think they are doing now with McGroarty, Pickering, Brunicke, Blomqvist, Howe, maybe Koivunen and Pono. What you need is McKenna in 2026. Then by the time the old guard is retired and gone, you have a nice foundation of early 20s talent to build on.

Top 5 this year and 1st OV in 2026. That's the redemption arc. As you point out in your last line there, you need quality pieces to surround a franchise guy. We had that with Whit, Orpik, MAF, Army, Letang, and then added Malkin and Sid and later Staal. We need to get our Sid again and I think McKenna is the guy.

If we were looking at having a good piece or two already, I would say that's fine. But I'm worried they'll pick a player to give Sid a winger for the last year or so and we'll end up passing up a more logical piece for a rebuild.

Top 5 is roughly:

Hagen - center
Schaefer - dman
Misa - wing
Martone - wing
McQueen - wing/center

If we pick top 5, what's the "logical piece" that's not one of them?

 

[chethejet]

Pens need the following. RW with size and skill, then another RW with size and skill. A RH center could be had as well. Depending on where they draft I like a RW or RH center with some size and upside. Please no more small LW skill guys as they seem to have more than enough to develop.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Last year was really interesting too but the consensus was "after 10ov or so...there is ZERO consensus". 1-10 were fairly set, order not withstanding. Then from 10 to 50, it was the same level of player with team lists varying wildly. If there's a draft where you see duds in the first, studs in the 2nd, and steals in the 3rd, it was the 2024 draft.

Which is what I think they are doing now with McGroarty, Pickering, Brunicke, Blomqvist, Howe, maybe Koivunen and Pono. What you need is McKenna in 2026. Then by the time the old guard is retired and gone, you have a nice foundation of early 20s talent to build on.

Top 5 this year and 1st OV in 2026. That's the redemption arc. As you point out in your last line there, you need quality pieces to surround a franchise guy. We had that with Whit, Orpik, MAF, Army, Letang, and then added Malkin and Sid and later Staal. We need to get our Sid again and I think McKenna is the guy.

Top 5 is roughly:

Hagen - center
Schaefer - dman
Misa - wing
Martone - wing
McQueen - wing/center

If we pick top 5, what's the "logical piece" that's not one of them?

If we’re picking Martone at 2OA because he might play with Sid, we done f***ed up.

Pens need the following. RW with size and skill, then another RW with size and skill. A RH center could be had as well. Depending on where they draft I like a RW or RH center with some size and upside. Please no more small LW skill guys as they seem to have more than enough to develop.

The Pens need every position but I would start with a center, if possible. Sid and Geno don’t have that much time left.