OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[CapitalsCupReality]

The more I’ve dug into this years FAs the more I’m convinced their primary target should be Chris Godwin. He’s a run blocking slot receiver who can get open downfield and was graded out Top 10 overall WR. Only red flag is injury history.

As much as I love Higgins he doesn’t fit KKs offense.

Ronnie Stanley at T and maybe an edge rusher via trade…

Don’t the best coaches build systems around their weapons, not the reverse? (I have very little opinion on Higgins either way, I just know JD needs weapons).

 

[DWGie26]

I love tee Higgins. He goes across the middle. Terry is best tearing the top off. Higgins frees that up because he is a load to handle in the middle. And he can go deep.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Congrats Josh Allen…..wow….

 

[Ajax1995]

Congrats Josh Allen…..wow….

Well deserved.

 

[John Price]

 

[g00n]

No shit!

Right? It says something. Maybe WFT can't get a total near-MVP gamebreaking stud like Barkley (anymore...what a miss) but that ONE position probably decided the game more than anything else.

So "we're not one piece away" may not be that accurate. If PHI are running Gainwell all game long, do we still lose? If they have Gainwell and we have Barkley what's the result?

Hell, PHI got SEVEN f***ing rushing TDs and one pass TD, a 4yder to Brown. To me that says DL and LBs need the most attention, despite what we've thought about the secondary. Granted, Barkley and Hurts accounted for 6 of those TDs and they're incredibly hard to stop for anyone, but 6 is way way too much.

Which still means to me what I said before...get a banger, elite talent RB and shore up that DL especially up the middle. With MG adding to that line and JD doing his thing you have a chance to repeat a deep playoff run next year.

Remember when I said earlier in the season the WR2 needs may have changed compared to preseason because JD was showing how good he is, and makes all his WRs better like Brady used to? I caught some shit for that but it sure seemed like everyone below Terry turned into a kind of WR2.5...not elite WR1-2 level but good enough for a WR2 rotation.

Would still be nice to have another really solid deep threat WR2 to just scare the piss out of defenses and make safeties choose a side of the field, though.

 

[ynotcaps]

Right? It says something. Maybe WFT can't get a total near-MVP gamebreaking stud like Barkley (anymore...what a miss) but that ONE position probably decided the game more than anything else.

So "we're not one piece away" may not be that accurate. If PHI are running Gainwell all game long, do we still lose? If they have Gainwell and we have Barkley what's the result?

Hell, PHI got SEVEN f***ing rushing TDs and one pass TD, a 4yder to Brown. To me that says DL and LBs need the most attention, despite what we've thought about the secondary. Granted, Barkley and Hurts accounted for 6 of those TDs and they're incredibly hard to stop for anyone, but 6 is way way too much.

Which still means to me what I said before...get a banger, elite talent RB and shore up that DL especially up the middle. With MG adding to that line and JD doing his thing you have a chance to repeat a deep playoff run next year.

Remember when I said earlier in the season the WR2 needs may have changed compared to preseason because JD was showing how good he is, and makes all his WRs better like Brady used to? I caught some shit for that but it sure seemed like everyone below Terry turned into a kind of WR2.5...not elite WR1-2 level but good enough for a WR2 rotation.

Would still be nice to have another really solid deep threat WR2 to just scare the piss out of defenses and make safeties choose a side of the field, though.

I think we also have to remember that we gave them the ball 4 times on turnovers, 3 of which were when the game was still in play, and all of which led to PHI TDs.

It would be one thing if they were all or mostly INTs and our QB was prone to throwing INTs -- that's a harder battle to fight and correct. But the first 3 were all fumbles, which are essentially 50-50 balls once they hit the ground, and all committed by skill position guys, who we basically all agree that the team needs to improve, though we lack consensus on the "who."

You can game out for yourself what happens if we recover one, two or all 3 of those fumbles. (Or if none of them happened in the first place.) Completely different game flow. If we're not chasing the game, maybe the INT doesn't happen. Or maybe it does earlier, with the game in doubt, who knows? But it's a competitive game, and one we might even be leading going into the 4th/end of game.

Long way of saying: we're not 32 points worse than PHI walking onto the field.

Barkly and some good draft picks and targeted FA additions turned PHI around in one year from the sad-sack end they had to '23. Much like JD, some other good draft picks and targeted FA additions turned us around in one year from the sad-sack franchise we've been since back when I had just the one chin.

AP and his team authored that, and they have MORE going for them this year: still a ton of cap space, but the most important role filled along with 2 net-new CBs who are a vast improvement over the dreck that was the '23 group, a bona fide stud LB, a developing OT, a coaching staff that has demonstrated an excellent proof-of-concept, and a culture and an aura that we're hearing is a factor for FAs looking for a new home.

Going into last off-season, the only one of those we had going for us was cap space.

If they use draft picks in trade to fill a DE spot, OK, then the cap space is going to be what we use to fill other needs (WR? OT? CB?) If we keep the picks, we look to fill one or 2 starting roles with those (DE? WR? CB?) a couple more contributors (RB? DT? OL?), and the cap space is used to bring another starter or 2 (Stanley? WR?)

There are many ways to 'Skin a Bird.

In AP I trust.

 

[Bananas]

I think we also have to remember that we gave them the ball 4 times on turnovers, 3 of which were when the game was still in play, and all of which led to PHI TDs.

It would be one thing if they were all or mostly INTs and our QB was prone to throwing INTs -- that's a harder battle to fight and correct. But the first 3 were all fumbles, which are essentially 50-50 balls once they hit the ground, and all committed by skill position guys, who we basically all agree that the team needs to improve, though we lack consensus on the "who."

You can game out for yourself what happens if we recover one, two or all 3 of those fumbles. (Or if none of them happened in the first place.) Completely different game flow. If we're not chasing the game, maybe the INT doesn't happen. Or maybe it does earlier, with the game in doubt, who knows? But it's a competitive game, and one we might even be leading going into the 4th/end of game.

Long way of saying: we're not 32 points worse than PHI walking onto the field.

Barkly and some good draft picks and targeted FA additions turned PHI around in one year from the sad-sack end they had to '23. Much like JD, some other good draft picks and targeted FA additions turned us around in one year from the sad-sack franchise we've been since back when I had just the one chin.

AP and his team authored that, and they have MORE going for them this year: still a ton of cap space, but the most important role filled along with 2 net-new CBs who are a vast improvement over the dreck that was the '23 group, a bona fide stud LB, a developing OT, a coaching staff that has demonstrated an excellent proof-of-concept, and a culture and an aura that we're hearing is a factor for FAs looking for a new home.

Going into last off-season, the only one of those we had going for us was cap space.

If they use draft picks in trade to fill a DE spot, OK, then the cap space is going to be what we use to fill other needs (WR? OT? CB?) If we keep the picks, we look to fill one or 2 starting roles with those (DE? WR? CB?) a couple more contributors (RB? DT? OL?), and the cap space is used to bring another starter or 2 (Stanley? WR?)

There are many ways to 'Skin a Bird.

In AP I trust.

Dude we had way, way more draft capital plus cap space. We could have traded down from 2nd overall and gotten 3 first rounders plus traded up from our two second rounders to get 2 more. We had 5 first round picks worth of capital. This year we have 29OA and don’t pick again until the late 50s. It’s a gigantic issue.

They don’t have the juice left to trade multiple picks from this years draft class unless Peters wants to build the entire team through FA and trades. If he does that we’ll have a weak core roster for years as soon as our vets age out. It’s a flimsy build if you zoom out long term. It’s the big problem with trading for Lattimore at the deadline and making the Championship Game.

This offseason would be much more challenging than last year had we not struck gold with Daniels and the coaching staff. The good news is we might find deals since we’re on the map again. I truly don’t believe trading multiple picks for one player is in the cards though.

 

[ynotcaps]

Dude we had way, way more draft capital plus cap space. We could have traded down from 2nd overall and gotten 3 first rounders plus traded up from our two second rounders to get 2 more. We had 5 first round picks worth of capital. This year we have 29OA and don’t pick again until the late 50s. It’s a gigantic issue.

They don’t have the juice left to trade multiple picks from this years draft class unless Peters wants to build the entire team through FA and trades. If he does that we’ll have a weak core roster for years as soon as our vets age out. It’s a flimsy build if you zoom out long term. It’s the big problem with trading for Lattimore at the deadline and making the Championship Game.

This offseason would be much more challenging than last year had we not struck gold with Daniels and the coaching staff. The good news is we might find deals since we’re on the map again. I truly don’t believe trading multiple picks for one player is in the cards though.

Yes, we have fewer picks. We also have fewer holes.

I'm not necessarily advocating for spending a bunch of picks on Garrett -- or anyone, for that matter.

My point is, the group in charge right now has a better handle on the true value of our assets and the true value of our targets, and the demonstrated know-how as to how to apply the former in pursuit of the latter.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Dude we had way, way more draft capital plus cap space. We could have traded down from 2nd overall and gotten 3 first rounders plus traded up from our two second rounders to get 2 more. We had 5 first round picks worth of capital. This year we have 29OA and don’t pick again until the late 50s. It’s a gigantic issue.

They don’t have the juice left to trade multiple picks from this years draft class unless Peters wants to build the entire team through FA and trades. If he does that we’ll have a weak core roster for years as soon as our vets age out. It’s a flimsy build if you zoom out long term. It’s the big problem with trading for Lattimore at the deadline and making the Championship Game.

This offseason would be much more challenging than last year had we not struck gold with Daniels and the coaching staff. The good news is we might find deals since we’re on the map again. I truly don’t believe trading multiple picks for one player is in the cards though.

I’m not understanding the mental gymnastics you’re working through in your head by saying we could have traded down from 2 and gotten 3 1sts, or that we could have traded up with our seconds to get more 1sts. Again we didn’t, and there would have been not insignificant costs in trading up from 2 2nd to get first rounders. This is all imaginary what if stuff, not actual “draft capital”. The extra picks we actually had WERE draft capital beyond what we have this year yes.


AP just rebuilt a 4 win team with largely free agent signing on short deals. He’s going to do the same thing.

We are a free agent destination now. Doesn’t sound like you have accepted that or appreciate what AP did (and CAN do) in one short offseason.

As of March 2024, we had $62 mil free cap space. Currently we have $81mil. So we are even more financially armed than last season.

 

[Roric]

KK will probably not be here again after this upcoming season, he will eventually take another head coaching job. We shouldn't base the acquisition of weapons on whether they fit his scheme or not.

 

[Jags]

Yeah you don't get to the NFC championship every day. Stepping back into a "whoah let's pump the brakes and slowly rebuild" mode right now could backfire as much or more than going too far too fast.

I'm not sure their argument is to slowly rebuild. It all boils down to what our staff sees at the tail end of the first this year. Not everyone is convinced it'll take two firsts to get MG. His last two years aren't guaranteed, so he's very likely to want a new deal in the process. At 29 he'll want term and guaranteed money that both might exceed his shelf life. So it depends on how fond he is of that contract, too, or how lenient he might be in joining a winner.

But yeah, if there's a reasonable deal to be made and he wants to be here, go for it. He's a monster. Fits in character-wise, too.

I’m not as smart as Peters but you guys are going full Snyder here. It’s a little surprising to be honest.

This is the flipside argument, also an overstatement. We're light on draft capital but heavy on cap space. No reason we can't shop exactly the way we did last year in free agency. And being a top destination might save us some cash in the process. We can still improve by leaps and bounds even if we trade top picks (or use them and whiff).

And I'm not sure one player, albeit a good one, is going to stop the Eagles from scoring, *checks note* fifty five f***ing points on us. We need DBs, DTs, DEs, OTs, WRs, RBs.

Hang on to 3 of those turnovers and get field goals out of them and that 55-23 game is 34-32. There is no question that we maximize our assets and space in the offseason this year to improve everywhere we can, regardless of how. That'll be enough to hang with anyone if we don't f*** it up. We're not a roster away.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

KK will probably not be here again after this upcoming season, he will eventually take another head coaching job. We shouldn't base the acquisition of weapons on whether they fit his scheme or not.

Kliff gets paid by Arizona through 2027…..in other words, he’s getting HC $ now without the stress and his head being on a chopping block all the time.

I think we could keep him another year past this coming season, if it looks like we’re still a building playoff team, sort of like Ben Johnson stayed this past season.

And yes….good coaches build schemes around/for their talent.

 

[Jags]

They don’t have the juice left to trade multiple picks from this years draft class unless Peters wants to build the entire team through FA and trades. If he does that we’ll have a weak core roster for years as soon as our vets age out. It’s a flimsy build if you zoom out long term.

None of this is true if AP shops like he did last year. No albatross contracts or crippling guaranteed money. Vets aging out isn't a thing in the NFL as long as you're not paying them when they wither. We're not doing that. We signed older guys to shorter deals. When they age out, we'll either have draft picks aging in or we'll start the same process over with different vets.

So long as we can keep DC a destination franchise and properly embrace turnover every year, we can evolve our core and ride the irreplaceable parts all the way to their retirement.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think if we swapped RBs with Philly we'd have won that game

Well maybe if we swapped OL as well. Those long runs by SB, he had holes that you or I could have run through. They scored 55. It wasn't just because of one player.

 

[kicksavedave]

Yeah you don't get to the NFC championship every day. Stepping back into a "whoah let's pump the brakes and slowly rebuild" mode right now could backfire as much or more than going too far too fast.

There's a middle ground between going too fast and pumping the brakes/slowly rebuilding. Trading multiple picks for one players is a move that you make when A) you're one player away and you know you're going to be blowing it all up soon anyway, and B) that one player is a QB. See: Rams, trading for Stafford. We're just not one player away, and a DE isn't the player that gets us over the hump. We need better starters at multiple places, not just one.

We already traded a few valuable picks for one player to supposedly fix the defense and that did not pay off at all (Lattimore).

The overall strategy I'd like to see them adopt is to spend their cap space to bring in FA's who are significant upgrades to the current starter, trade expiring or soon to expire contracts for draft capital if those players aren't part of the future plans (Payne? Allen?) and continue to build through the draft so that we remain a contender every year, like the Chiefs have done. They haven't gone bananas with massive trades or massive UFA splurges, they've sought value free agent adds, and they've been unafraid to trade talented players who didn't fit in with their salary cap management approach (Hill) or release those who didn't fit with their culture (Hunt).

If there is any team we should be modeling, its the Chiefs. They found their QB and kept a SB competitive team around him, turning over plenty of parts along the way, but drafting well and being smart, not splurgy, with free agency, both adds and drops. The second team to model after is the Eagles, which basically use the same approach.

 

[kicksavedave]

Also, once it became apparent that Mahomes was THE MAN, they locked his ass up for 10 years and $500M as soon as league rules allowed. I expect the Redskins to do the same thing as soon as they can.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

There's a middle ground between going too fast and pumping the brakes/slowly rebuilding. Trading multiple picks for one players is a move that you make when A) you're one player away and you know you're going to be blowing it all up soon anyway, and B) that one player is a QB. See: Rams, trading for Stafford. We're just not one player away, and a DE isn't the player that gets us over the hump. We need better starters at multiple places, not just one.

We already traded a few valuable picks for one player to supposedly fix the defense and that did not pay off at all (Lattimore).

The overall strategy I'd like to see them adopt is to spend their cap space to bring in FA's who are significant upgrades to the current starter, trade expiring or soon to expire contracts for draft capital if those players aren't part of the future plans (Payne? Allen?) and continue to build through the draft so that we remain a contender every year, like the Chiefs have done. They haven't gone bananas with massive trades or massive UFA splurges, they've sought value free agent adds, and they've been unafraid to trade talented players who didn't fit in with their salary cap management approach (Hill) or release those who didn't fit with their culture (Hunt).

If there is any team we should be modeling, its the Chiefs. They found their QB and kept a SB competitive team around him, turning over plenty of parts along the way, but drafting well and being smart, not splurgy, with free agency, both adds and drops. The second team to model after is the Eagles, which basically use the same approach.

I get this but at pick 28 has almost no value unless we hit a home run. And I doubt that we will. Myles is worth it. I wouldnt give 2 1st rounders
Someone suggested pick 28 and 2026 2nd plus a throw in contract. I would do this as fast as one could make a trade. And I love draft picks

 

[kicksavedave]

I get this but at pick 28 has almost no value unless we hit a home run. And I doubt that we will. Myles is worth it. I wouldnt give 2 1st rounders
Someone suggested pick 28 and 2026 2nd plus a throw in contract. I would do this as fast as one could make a trade. And I love draft picks

You would but the Browns won't.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There's a middle ground between going too fast and pumping the brakes/slowly rebuilding. Trading multiple picks for one players is a move that you make when A) you're one player away and you know you're going to be blowing it all up soon anyway, and B) that one player is a QB. See: Rams, trading for Stafford. We're just not one player away, and a DE isn't the player that gets us over the hump. We need better starters at multiple places, not just one.

We already traded a few valuable picks for one player to supposedly fix the defense and that did not pay off at all (Lattimore).

The overall strategy I'd like to see them adopt is to spend their cap space to bring in FA's who are significant upgrades to the current starter, trade expiring or soon to expire contracts for draft capital if those players aren't part of the future plans (Payne? Allen?) and continue to build through the draft so that we remain a contender every year, like the Chiefs have done. They haven't gone bananas with massive trades or massive UFA splurges, they've sought value free agent adds, and they've been unafraid to trade talented players who didn't fit in with their salary cap management approach (Hill) or release those who didn't fit with their culture (Hunt).

If there is any team we should be modeling, its the Chiefs. They found their QB and kept a SB competitive team around him, turning over plenty of parts along the way, but drafting well and being smart, not splurgy, with free agency, both adds and drops. The second team to model after is the Eagles, which basically use the same approach

That just wrong….if you thought that at time of acquisition….don’t know what to tell you. He was there to bolster one position, not “fix the D”.

You’re trying too hard Dave. You made an incorrect statement saying we are an “entire roster” away from beating Philly. It’s an incorrect assertion, but we can move on.

I strongly disagree that trading multiple picks for a player is only something you do if “you're one player away and you know you're going to be blowing it all up soon anyway, and B) that one player is a QB.”.

“One player away” is a fantasy….you can almost never determine that in team sports.”

 

[John Price]

Also, once it became apparent that Mahomes was THE MAN, they locked his ass up for 10 years and $500M as soon as league rules allowed. I expect the Redskins to do the same thing as soon as they can.

This is the only negative about this whole jayden deal, the last thing we need is another cousins drama situation

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

You’re trying too hard Dave. You made an incorrect statement saying we are an “entire roster” away from beating Philly. It’s an incorrect assertion, but we can move on.

We had to play them 3 times and beat them once. They dont scare me

 

[kicksavedave]

That just wrong….if you thought that at time of acquisition….don’t know what to tell you. He was there to bolster one position, not “fix the D”.

You’re trying too hard Dave. You made an incorrect statement saying we are an “entire roster” away from beating Philly. It’s an incorrect assertion, but we can move on.

I strongly disagree that trading multiple picks for a player is only something you do if “you're one player away and you know you're going to be blowing it all up soon anyway, and B) that one player is a QB.”.

“One player away” is a fantasy….you can almost never determine that in team sports.”

Here's my main point, I'd welcome data which shows differently: When teams trade multiple assets for one player, and that player isn't a QB (Stafford), how often does the team trading those multiple assets for that one player, actually improve? Particularly when that one team is a "close, but not yet a SB winner type", like we are suggesting that we currently are? Thinking Bills, Ravens, Packers, Eagles, or really any of the recent playoff teams that have made this kind of move.

About being an entire roster away from beating Philly, I'll restate it: They are much better than us in every roster area, every position group, except QB. I get that QB is most important but they have a pretty good one also. Everywhere else, they are better than we are. Until that changes, we may just have to hope that Hurts gets hurt like he did when we beat them this year. We never beat Hurts this year and neither game was especially close.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is the only negative about this whole jayden deal, the last thing we need is another cousins drama situation

It will never happen unless JD goes diva on them. They will negotiate in good faith and lock this kid up if he keeps playing like he started off.

 

[kicksavedave]

We had to play them 3 times and beat them once. They dont scare me

We beat them without their QB. We weren't close the other times.

They just beat us 55 to 'who cares'. They should scare us all.