Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

[RoyIsALegend]

I think Nelson is more likely to walk than re-sign and I think they can move at least Colton and possible Wood if they package them.

Nelson walking would be a disaster after struggling to find a consistent 2C and giving up so many assets for him. If he can fit in for the rest of the season and playoffs, the Avs need to make re-signing him the #1 priority ahead of any winger or a 4/5 D like Lindgren.

 

[Foppa2118]

Nelson walking would be a disaster after struggling to find a consistent 2C and giving up so many assets for him. If he can fit in for the rest of the season and playoffs, the Avs need to make re-signing him the #1 priority ahead of any winger or a 4/5 D like Lindgren.

If it's up to the Avs and he plays well, I'm sure they'd re-sign him. But I'm not sure it'll be up to the Avs.

It's not clear how much Nelson wants to go back to Minny, and if the Avs can talk him out of it like they might have done with Manson and Anaheim.

If I were to guess, as of today I think LIndgren is more likely to re-sign than Nelson. Would be great if Nelson stays though. Their 2C options are extremely limited with so little assets.

Coyle's played pretty well though, despite a lack of production. I've noticed him start to skate better in transition too which is important for this team.

I think the Avs traded Mitts for Coyle, even after trading for Nelson, instead of using Mitts to get a defenseman, because they weren't sure if Nelson would re-sign.

If they're forced to go with Coyle next year at 2C, maybe he can get to a 60 point level, while bringing other things to the table. He scored 25 goals and 60 points last year with Boston. With the Avs winger options, which could include Landy, it might not be so bad. Too early to tell.

 

[Richard88]

Yeah, that might be where we should set our expectations. Perhaps a younger, less injury prone, Manson.

I kinda thought they'd take that approach earlier and then move Manson to free up space, but now with Mikko gone, and Necas cheap next year, they can probably keep Manson, if they move someone like Colton.

If we're lucky, maybe CMac can get good value again, and the pro scouts can target another gem waiting to breakout. Probably best case scenario in terms of trade.

Maybe the real best case scenario though is Malinski continues playing well, comes into his own and proves himself in the playoffs, and they don't make a move for a D man, re-sign Lindgren, and have two second pairs again with Girard-Manson and Lindgren-Malinski.

Really curious how this plays out in the summer. I think that's when they'll set their team for the year. Have a feeling they won't make any big deadline deals with their lack of assets.

Since @RoyIsALegend likes puckpedia rosters so much here's one to illustrate that it's unrealistic to keep Manson AND re-sign Lindgren if the intention is to keep Drouin and Nelson.

Note that the contracts are pretty much a best case scenario, especially Nelson who turned down $7.5m x 3 years from NYI. You'd likely need to offer 5 years to get him at $6.5m. I'm also assuming that Wood gets traded.

Nelson $6.5m
Drouin $3m
Vesey (or whoever) $800k
Lindgren $4m
Malinski $1.5m

Even with those best case AAV's the 22 man roster is still $4.6m over the cap ceiling...

With the roster above being $4.6m over the cap ceiling you'd have to trade Colton AND let Drouin walk if you're dead set on keeping the D intact like you said.

Trading Colton and not re-signing Drouin in this scenario would leave $2.4m for two forwards.

In this example I've used Kiviranta $1.5m and Ivan $845k which leaves $55k in capspace with 22 guys. I guess you could also do another $800k forward instead of Kiviranta and give an extra $700k to Nelson and Lindgren if that's required.

Honestly now that I'm looking at this roster it might be an approach worth considering if Mackinnon isn't too upset about Drouin not being re-signed.

Wingers are much easier and cheaper to find at the TDL than top 4 Dmen, so letting go of Colton and Drouin to keep both Manson and Lindgren may have some merit. This roster would still be stacked on the wings in the top 6, at center 1-4, as well as on the blueline. You'd simply have to replace Colton and Drouin at the TDL.

With all that said, I'd be somewhat surprised if Drouin isn't re-signed. He clearly wants to be here; has taken discounts twice to be in Denver; and Mackinnon wants him on the team.

 

[Richard88]

The Avs can’t afford to have a D of Makar, Toews, Girard, Manson, Lindgren, and Malinski on the roster to start the season. Not with Landeskog there to start the year.

That would mean no Nelson or Drouin coming back and we would still have to dump Colton and Wood either way.

My concern is a strong top 9, top 4 and 2 goalies. 4th line are already under contract and Malinski can have some bozo as his D partner on the third pairing until the trade deadline.

The logical move is Lindgren walks.

As shown above it might actually be doable if you trade Wood and Colton, and don't re-sign Drouin. Nelson and Lindgren would simply need to sign for a combined $11.2m maximum - in my example I used $6.5m and $4m ($10.5m combined) but an extra $700k could be found by swapping Kiviranta's $1.5m for a $800k forward.

 

[Foppa2118]

Since @RoyIsALegend likes puckpedia rosters so much here's one to illustrate that it's unrealistic to keep Manson AND re-sign Lindgren if the intention is to keep Drouin and Nelson.

Note that the contracts are pretty much a best case scenario, especially Nelson who turned down $7.5m x 3 years from NYI. You'd likely need to offer 5 years to get him at $6.5m. I'm also assuming that Wood gets traded.

Nelson $6.5m
Drouin $3m
Vesey (or whoever) $800k
Lindgren $4m
Malinski $1.5m

Even with those best case AAV's the 22 man roster is still $4.6m over the cap ceiling...

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With the roster above being $4.6m over the cap ceiling you'd have to trade Colton AND let Drouin walk if you're dead set on keeping the D intact like you said.

Trading Colton and not re-signing Drouin in this scenario would leave $2.4m for two forwards.

In this example I've used Kiviranta $1.5m and Ivan $845k which leaves $55k in capspace with 22 guys. I guess you could also do another $800k forward instead of Kiviranta and give an extra $700k to Nelson and Lindgren if that's required.


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Honestly now that I'm looking at this roster it might be an approach worth considering if Mackinnon isn't too upset about Drouin not being re-signed.

Wingers are much easier and cheaper to find at the TDL than top 4 Dmen, so letting go of Colton and Drouin to keep both Manson and Lindgren may have some merit. This roster would still be stacked on the wings in the top 6, at center 1-4, as well as on the blueline. You'd simply have to replace Colton and Drouin at the TDL.

With all that said, I'd be somewhat surprised if Drouin isn't re-signed. He clearly wants to be here; has taken discounts twice to be in Denver; and Mackinnon wants him on the team.

Yeah, again though, I never said they'd keep the same D core AND Nelson. I think we're being a little over focused on Nelson in this discussion, though I understand why.

If he wants to go back to Minny, there's not much the Avs can do about it.

If they're lucky enough to win the Cup, I would be he's very likely to go back to Minny too. He'll have his Cup and he can sign his retirement contract at home.

And I don't think they traded Mitts just for Coyle to play 3C. They could have kept Mitts at 3C where he'd have been fine and waited to see if he rebounded, or traded him for a defenseman and used Drury at 3C. Or moved him in th off season for a 2C if Nelson walked.

I think they traded him for Coyle instead as Nelson insurance, becasue they didn't think Mitts could be their 2C, and they'd give Coyle a chance if Nelson walks.

Also side point, I think Kivi might have played his way out of Denver. He's on pace for 19 goals. Someone could give him an overpayment the Avs can't match.

 

[Richard88]

Yeah, again though, I never said they'd keep the same D core AND Nelson. I think we're being a little over focused on Nelson in this discussion, though I understand why.

If he wants to go back to Minny, there's not much the Avs can do about it.

If they're lucky enough to win the Cup, I would be he's very likely to go back to Minny too. He'll have his Cup and he can sign his retirement contract at home.

And I don't think they traded Mitts just for Coyle to play 3C. They could have kept Mitts at 3C where he'd have been fine and waited to see if he rebounded, or traded him for a defenseman and used Drury at 3C. Or moved him in th off season for a 2C if Nelson walked.

I think they traded him for Coyle instead as Nelson insurance, becasue they didn't think Mitts could be their 2C, and they'd give Coyle a chance if Nelson walks.

Also side point, I think Kivi might have played his way out of Denver. He's on pace for 19 goals. Someone could give him an overpayment the Avs can't match.

Thanks for clarfying. I agree there's a big chance Nelson walks, and I do think CMac at least in part hedged his bets with Coyle as the fallback option as 2C next season.

If Nelson walks the offseason is actually pretty straightforward as the Avs would have enough capspace to re-sign everyone while only needing to trade Wood.

Drouin $3m
Kiviranta $1.5m
Vesey/other depth fwd $800k
Lindgren $4m
Malinski $1.5m

That leaves the 22 man roster below with $400k to spare.

It's still a pretty deep group, albeit not quite as offensively skilled at 2C.

 

[Foppa2118]

Thanks for clarfying. I agree there's a big chance Nelson walks, and I do think CMac at least in part hedged his bets with Coyle as the fallback option as 2C next season.

If Nelson walks the offseason is actually pretty straightforward as the Avs would have enough capspace to re-sign everyone while only needing to trade Wood.

Drouin $3m
Kiviranta $1.5m
Vesey/other depth fwd $800k
Lindgren $4m
Malinski $1.5m

That leaves the 22 man roster below with $400k to spare.

It's still a pretty deep group, albeit not quite as offensively skilled at 2C.


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Yeah, we're just spitballing here for fun. It's way too early to know who they will and won't keep next year. So many things can change their decisions. That's why this summer will be so interesting.

Among the many different things that can change their decisions with the D core, is just one decent sized salary like Manson, or someone else, having off season surgery, and starting the year on LTIR.

I don't know what's going on with Manson, but if it's a bad shoulder injury that they took their time figuring out if he could come back this year or not and play though it, that could easily happen. Especially if they go deep into the summer in the playoffs.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Yep, he’s not a goon, he’s a good hockey player.

Also, interesting stat…

Tom Wilson, Brady Tkachuk, and Matthew Knies are the only 3 players in the NHL with 25+ goals and 150+ hits.

They are the true unicorns, IMO.

Ahhh the days of Landeskog and the 20G/200 hits.. Didn't he do that his rookie year?

 

[Foppa2118]

Ahhh the days of Landeskog and the 20G/200 hits.. Didn't he do that his rookie year?

Yeah I was gonna say, I bet Landy would be in that group if he played for another team. He's a bit of unicorn for this era too. He just adapted his game for Bednar.

Someone should make a Landeskog viking unicorn centaur.

 

[Foppa2118]

You're right btw @CobraAcesS, 219 hits his rookie year according to NHL.com.

Actually he'd still be in that group under Bednar. He paced for 151 last season.

2011-12 - 22 goals - 219 hits
2012-13 - 9 goals - 86 hits (in 36 games)
2013-14 - 26 goals - 176 hits
2014-15 - 23 goals - 169 hits
2015-16 - 20 goals - 141 hits (in 75 games)
2016-17 - 18 goals - 143 hits(in 72 games)
2017-18 - 25 goals - 149 hits
2018-19 - 34 goals - 120 hits (in 73 games)
2019-20 - 21 goals - 86 hits (in 54 games)
2020-21 - 20 goals - 81 hits (in 54 games)
2021-22 - 30 goals - 94 hits (in 51 games)

 

[RoyIsALegend]

You're right btw @CobraAcesS, 219 hits his rookie year according to NHL.com.

Actually he'd still be in that group under Bednar. He paced for 151 last season.

2011-12 - 22 goals - 219 hits
2012-13 - 9 goals - 86 hits (in 36 games)
2013-14 - 26 goals - 176 hits
2014-15 - 23 goals - 169 hits
2015-16 - 20 goals - 141 hits (in 75 games)
2016-17 - 18 goals - 143 hits(in 72 games)
2017-18 - 25 goals - 149 hits
2018-19 - 34 goals - 120 hits (in 73 games)
2019-20 - 21 goals - 86 hits (in 54 games)
2020-21 - 20 goals - 81 hits (in 54 games)
2021-22 - 30 goals - 94 hits (in 51 games)

So he would make that list once then.

Pace doesn’t matter, because the whole point is the style these guys play leads to injuries and is tough to actually maintain over a full season.

25 goals and 150 hits is no joke.

 

[CobraAcesS]

The Avs can’t afford to have a D of Makar, Toews, Girard, Manson, Lindgren, and Malinski on the roster to start the season. Not with Landeskog there to start the year.

That would mean no Nelson or Drouin coming back and we would still have to dump Colton and Wood either way.

My concern is a strong top 9, top 4 and 2 goalies. 4th line are already under contract and Malinski can have some bozo as his D partner on the third pairing until the trade deadline.

The logical move is Lindgren walks.

While I agree on Nelson being a priority assuming he adjusts/fits etc. I think there is a better than outside chance Lindgren is our #3 D when everything shakes out.

It will be close between him and Girard, but it's a legit possibility Lindgren is the better of the two in the playoffs.

So no, that isn't the obvious logical move IMO. We'll see though.

 

[Foppa2118]

So he would make that list once then.

Pace doesn’t matter, because the whole point is the style these guys play leads to injuries and is tough to actually maintain over a full season.

25 goals and 150 hits is no joke.

lol you love to nitpick things I say so much you didn't even realize you contradicted yourself.

Wilson and Knies have only scored 25 goals once too.

And Gabe missed 25+ goals and 150 hits by one hit in a second year.

 

[CobraAcesS]

lol you love to nitpick things I say so much you didn't even realize you contradicted yourself.

Wilson and Knies have only scored 25 goals once too.

And Gabe missed 25+ goals and 150 hits by one hit in a second year.

Landeskog changed his style to both not get injured as much, and to stay off of the suspension block, but he still engaged Viking mode on occasion.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

lol you love to nitpick things I say so much you didn't even realize you contradicted yourself.

Wilson and Knies have only scored 25 goals once too.

And Gabe missed 25+ goals and 150 hits by one hit in a second year.

No bro, I’m not nitpicking.

I’m just highlighting how hard it is to actually score 25 goals, get 150 hits, and have your body hold up enough through the season to even achieve those numbers.

There’s many players who would pace at those numbers, the whole point is the way these types of guys play it’s very hard to not get injured and actually reach those numbers. That’s all.

Healthy Landy is a better player than all 3 of them, no doubt, but his style has serious wear and tear on the body. That’s why he has actually only done it once in his career.

P.S.: Knies is doing this in his second full season. Logic would say he will do it again as he plays on Toronto’s first line. However, the whole point is this style beats the crap out of you and it wouldn’t shock anybody if he starts to get hurt in upcoming seasons. It’s the reality of a true power forward.

 

[Foppa2118]

Landeskog changed his style to both not get injured as much, and to stay off of the suspension block, but he still engaged Viking mode on occasion.

Yeah that's a good point. I think the suspensions had a lot to do with it.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm fine with Nelson this year but Necas is a natural center and is still listed as such on most sites, including Sportsnet:

I really, really wish Bednar would have tried him at center. I understand that it didn't work well in Carolina but Carolina and the Avs are the opposite when it comes to playing styles.

His skillset is similar to Mack's. Imagine Necas becoming the 2C version of Mack, it would solve all our problems next summer and for the rest of our window. It's his natural position, try him FFS. Ideally before we need to make a decision with Nelson.

 

[Foppa2118]

No bro, I’m not nitpicking.

I’m just highlighting how hard it is to actually score 25 goals, get 150 hits, and have your body hold up enough through the season to even achieve those numbers.

There’s many players who would pace at those numbers, the whole point is the way these types of guys play it’s very hard to not get injured and actually reach those numbers. That’s all.

Healthy Landy is a better player than all 3 of them, no doubt, but his style has serious wear and tear on the body. That’s why he has actually only done it once in his career.

P.S.: Knies is doing this in his second full season. Logic would say he will do it again as he plays on Toronto’s first line. However, the whole point is this style beats the crap out of you and it wouldn’t shock anybody if he starts to get hurt in upcoming seasons. It’s the reality of a true power forward.

Happy Friday brother.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'm fine with Nelson this year but Necas is a natural center and is still listed as such on most sites, including Sportsnet:

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I really, really wish Bednar would have tried him at center. I understand that it didn't work well in Carolina but Carolina and the Avs are the opposite when it comes to playing styles.

His skillset is similar to Mack's. Imagine Necas becoming the 2C version of Mack, it would solve all our problems next summer and for the rest of our window. It's his natural position, try him FFS. Ideally before we need to make a decision with Nelson.

Next season maybe, if Nelson doesn't merit it or won't re-sign.

I don't even see it as something he'll do out of desperation since once we had the opportunity to run Colton, Nuke, Lehhky and Drouin as the top six wingers after 4 Nations he still didn't try it for even one shift.

 

[Balthazar]

Next season maybe, if Nelson doesn't merit it or won't re-sign.

It would be very wise to know if Necas can play center for the Avs before the summer though.

 

[CobraAcesS]

It would be very wise to know if Necas can play center for the Avs before the summer though.

It would have been before paying the price for Nelson too.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Any chance someone would overpay for Scott Wedgewood this summer? If so, would you recoup assets in a Wedgewood trade and then sign a backup?

 

[Balthazar]

Any chance someone would overpay for Scott Wedgewood this summer? If so, would you recoup assets in a Wedgewood trade and then sign a backup?

If it's easy to just sign a decent backup why would anyone overpay for Wedgewood?

 

[Foppa2118]

Any chance someone would overpay for Scott Wedgewood this summer? If so, would you recoup assets in a Wedgewood trade and then sign a backup?

Interesting idea, but don't think it would be worth it IMO. This team needs a quality backup and Blackwood has had some injury problems in his career.

 

[Richard88]

Any chance someone would overpay for Scott Wedgewood this summer? If so, would you recoup assets in a Wedgewood trade and then sign a backup?

After how the last two seasons have gone let's not mess with the goaltending m'kay