Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

[Richard88]

It's simple to me. If Landy is healthy next year, and you want to keep Lindgren and Nelson, then you have to deal one of Manson or Girard, and go with a Middleton/Malinski-type bottom 3 paring that makes less than $1M on defense. And then you have to deal Wood and one of Colton or Coyle, and fill out the 4th line with prospects like Prishchepov and/or Ivan. This would leave you with something between $3M and $5M (depending on who you trade away and how much Lindgren and Nelson sign for) to go out and get someone for the 3rd line, or another D-man.

IMO, you trade away the guy that can get you the most in return, and that is Girard. Then you lose Manson after next season, and you have his $4.5M to use on another RD in 2026-27. It's too bad Behrens was injured and missed this entire season, as I'm almost betting that he would be on the Avs next year had he not lost a whole year of experience (He may still be, who knows). Trading Wood might not be easy. You might have to attach another asset to him to get someone to bite, or just buy him out ($708k '25, $1.208M '26-'29, and $708k '30-'33).

Technically you're wrong, because the guy who's going to get you the most in return isn't Girard, it's Makar. lol

Seriously though, trading Girard shouldn't even be an option. At least not until one of Behrens or Gulyayev show up.

A useful way to look at the roster is to add everyone at roughly the numbers they project to be getting, and then subtract as appropriate to get below the cap.

For example, the roster below includes all our free agents signed to the contracts listed below. The roster with these signings has 25 players and is $10.4m over the $95.5m cap ceiling. Obviously some guys gotta go to be cap compliant.

Nelson $6.5m x 4-5 years
Drouin $4m x 4-5 years
Kiviranta $1.5m x 2 years
Vesey $800k x 1 year

Lindgren $4m x 4 years
Malinski $1.5m x 2 years
EJ $800k x 1 year

First, trading Wood's $2.5m puts you at 24 players and $7.9m over.

Second, trading Colton's $4m puts you at 23 players and $3.9m over.

Thirdly, not signing Lindgren puts you at 22 players and $100k under. As illustrated in the roster below.

Alternatively, trading Manson instead of Lindgren puts you at 22 players and $600k under. Maybe you then squeeze out an extra $200k somewhere to add another guy at $800k.

What makes sense to me, assuming that you can re-sign Nelson, is that you have to shed the Colton and Wood money (in favour of more cost-effective guys like Kiviranta and Vesey), and then also make a direct choice between Manson and Lindgren.

Colton at 3LW for $4m and Wood as a healthy scratch making $2.5m are clearly where the cuts need to be made. Colton probably nets you a 2nd round pick, which you may need to attach to Wood to move him if he doesn't get LTIR'ed. The asset management move on D would be to trade Manson and re-sign Lindgren, and I could see that one going either way depending on the playoffs and Lindgren's ask in free agency.

 

[Richard88]

Now, I'm actually not here to advocate one guy or the other departing (yes, I know), but I disagree on which one of them yields the best return. That still would be Manson. Doesn't matter if he's been battling injury every single solitary season since signing (alliteration is fun) that deal. The appetite for big defensemen who hit will never cease. A much, much worse defenseman in Ilya Lyubushkin gets dealt for assets nearly every single deadline. And as has been pointed out, Manson is a very good skater for a big man and is a very capable puckmover. Sammy G really doesn't generate a whole lot of offense, he moves the puck well but has virtually no finish, doesn't have a great shot, and is not a big guy, and those are things other teams want nothing to do with. IMO he's a very good two-way defender but he has a lot of flaws. In short, he's just not as good a sell as Manson is.

I'm actually torn at this point. Yeah, yeah, I've dissed Manson a lot, though I maintain I love the guy when he's healthy. When he's playing hurt or just plain outta the lineup, he's useless. So yeah, maybe ditch him and sign Lindgren, though I imagine the same thing will happen with him then.

Sure hope Wyatt Aamodt proves to be an okay callup someday. He's not exactly a spring chicken anymore, but geez, if he can be a good bottom pair guy that saves a whole lotta cap and grief.

The issue with ditching Manson in favour of Lindgren is the handedness. If Lindgren was a RHS it would make the decision pretty straightforward, but since he's a LHS you're essentially forced into playing one of Lindgren or Girard on the right which isn't ideal.

That said, the success of Girard-Malinski as a pairing since the TDL (admittedly in limited minutes) perhaps indicates that that could potentially work if they do go with Lindgren over Manson...

Toews - Makar
Girard - Malinski
Lindgren - EJ
Middleton

Or,

Toews - Makar
Lindgren - Malinski
Girard - EJ
Middleton

Malinski as an everyday guy on your second pairing isn't ideal, but perhaps it would be enough for the regular season and you simply look to add a RHD at the 2026 TDL. Below is the 2026 RHD UFA class. The options basically consist of Trouba, Andersson, Murphy, Jensen, Gudas, Brodie, and Peeke.

 

[the_fan]

Something tells me Nelson walks, we go with Coyle as 2C next year then start shopping for a new center

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I thought Lindgren had played both sides previously? Am I mistaken on that or is the concern that while players might not mind playing offhand, Bednar does?

 

[AvsMakar08]

Looks like Avs are contenders once again.

 

[the_fan]

I thought Lindgren had played both sides previously? Am I mistaken on that or is the concern that while players might not mind playing offhand, Bednar does?

Bednar doesn’t like d-men playing offhand. He prefers lefties/righties, and I actually agree with that

 

[Foppa2118]

Signing Rantanen at $12M AAV would ruin this team’s future in terms of balance (ie.being able to roll 4 effective lines.). Signing Rantanen would put us on the road to becoming TML of the western conference. Nuke. No question. Look at how much more dynamic the 1st line and the team’s overall offense up and down the lines. Kelly scored 2C goals against Calgary IIRC. That’s 4th line scoring!

I think the decision to go with Necas instead of Mikko is mostly for this year and next.

Necas could easily get $10.5M on his next deal.

That $2M difference between Necas and giving Mikko something like Nate's deal might not be that big a deal when the cap is scheduled to be $16M and $25M higher than it is now the two years after that.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Lindgren and Kiviranta walk.

Colton and Wood traded.

EJ retires.

Nelson and Drouin extended.

Landy plays.

Avs roll with Malinski and some bozo on the third pairing until the TDL.

 

[Richard88]

Something tells me Nelson walks, we go with Coyle as 2C next year then start shopping for a new center

Yeah I think there's a pretty big chance that happens too. CMac let Kadri walk because of concerns about the aging curve, and Nelson is going to be 34 years old when next season starts... AND he wants more than a 3 year deal.

It's also quite telling that the other center that CMac targeted in Coyle has an extra year of term and is only a season removed from putting up 60 points. Seems like CMac is hedging his bets in case Nelson leaves. The roster obviously wouldn't be as loaded with Coyle at 2C as it is right now, but it's not like the top 6 wouldn't be pretty darn solid still even with Coyle at 2C, especially if you add a 3C or scoring winger at the deadline to add some extra offense.

Nelson walking also makes the off-season pretty straight-forward too, as you'd just have to do something like the moves below to fit most guys in, apart from Nelson and Kiviranta. Wood gets traded for whatever.

Drouin $4m
Vesey $800k
Lindgren $4m
Malinski $1.5m
EJ $800k

That leaves the 22 man roster below which is $30k under the cap, and which includes Ivan as the 13th forward.

 

[the_fan]

Lindgren and Kiviranta walk.

Colton and Wood traded.

EJ retires.

Nelson and Drouin extended.

Landy plays.

Avs roll with Malinski and some bozo on the third pairing until the TDL.

Bozak?

 

[hockeyfish]

Bozak?

And a 2nd.

 

[Richard88]

Lindgren and Kiviranta walk.

Colton and Wood traded.

EJ retires.

Nelson and Drouin extended.

Landy plays.

Avs roll with Malinski and some bozo on the third pairing until the TDL.

Are you hearing from your insiders that EJ is leaning towards retirement after this season, or is that just you speculating?

Other than that the moves would probably work...

Nelson $6.5m
Drouin $4m
Vesey $800k
Malinski $1.5m
Ivan called up

That leaves the 21 man roster below with $1.55m in capspace... which is enough for a 7D and 14th forward each making league minimum $775k and $5k left over.

 

[Vaslof]

They gave up Ritchie for Nelson. That tells us that the plan is to extend him.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I think the decision to go with Necas instead of Mikko is mostly for this year and next.

Necas could easily get $10.5M on his next deal.

That $2M difference between Necas and giving Mikko something like Nate's deal might not be that big a deal when the cap is scheduled to be $16M and $25M higher than it is now the two years after that.

I'm sorry, it's just getting hard to believe anyone thinks Mikko should be getting 2M more than Necas. Today? Maybe. For the next 8 years? Certainly not.

 

[BobRossColton]

Yeah we gave up a first round prospect and a 1st, we'll do our damnedest to re-sign Nelson.

 

[hockeyfish]

Spending that much on Nelson only to watch him walk would be a gut punch, regardless of how this spring goes.

But it's still too early to even talk about it. Still haven't even seen Landy play a game yet.

 

[the_fan]

We still don’t know if Nelson is even a good fit on the Avs. Yeah he’s doing little things out there to help the team, but he hasn’t produced offensively yet which he needs to do being the 2C. If he continues to struggle offensively rest of this season and the playoffs, I don’t know how or why the Avs re-sign him

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I have no idea what Nelson's wants or desires are, but I could honestly see term being the biggest sticking point when they get to negotiations.

 

[Foppa2118]

I'm sorry, it's just getting hard to believe anyone thinks Mikko should be getting 2M more than Necas. Today? Maybe. For the next 8 years? Certainly not.

I know you're really upset with Mikko, but lets just be honest, if they were both UFA's this summer, Mikko would definitely get more. Would be kind of ridiculous if he didn't. Even if Necas outscored Mikko this year.

Mikko's Career High Points - 105, 104, 92, 87, 84
Necas' Career High Points - 71, 53, 41, 40, 36

 

[Alienblood]

I know you're really upset with Mikko, but lets just be honest, if they were both UFA's this summer, Mikko would definitely get more. Would be kind of ridiculous if he didn't. Even if Necas outscored Mikko this year.

Mikko's Career High Points - 105, 104, 92, 87, 84
Necas' Career High Points - 71, 53, 41, 40, 36

Ya but going forward Necas all day.
Mikko now plays like a Toronto Maple Leaf.

 

[Richard88]

I have no idea what Nelson's wants or desires are, but I could honestly see term being the biggest sticking point when they get to negotiations.

According to some guy on twitter Nelson turned down a $7.5m x 3 years deal from NYI because he wants 4-5 years.

He'll be 34 in October, so signing him to a 4/5 year deal takes him to when he's 3 months shy of 39/40.

 

[Foppa2118]

Ya but going forward Necas all day.
Mikko now plays like a Toronto Maple Leaf.

I'm happy with Necas. I think his style fits the team very well and they can use the cap savings to get better.

But there's a possibility this might be the best he plays on the Avs in this honeymoon phase after the trade, and he's still below a point per game. Hopefully not, but it's certainly possible.

Both players have had small sample sizes on their new teams and it's been a much easier transition with a lot less chaos for Necas. We don't really know for sure who will be the better player going forward.

 

[Balthazar]

I thought Lindgren had played both sides previously? Am I mistaken on that or is the concern that while players might not mind playing offhand, Bednar does?

Bednar loathes it, as do nearly all NHL coaches. For defensemen it's a notable disadvantage—requiring them to clear the zone using their backhand or leaving them vulnerable to hits due to their positioning.

 

[BobRossColton]

My ideal off-season
Trade Colton for someone who is on a 2.5-3.0 bridge
Wood for like a 3rd+6th
Re-sign Lindgren unless he's definitely looking for $$
Kiviranta 3x1.25
Malinski 2x2.0??
Manson out
Drouin ???

 

[Richard88]

Bednar loathes it, as do nearly all NHL coaches. For defensemen it's a notable disadvantage—requiring them to clear the zone using their backhand or leaving them vulnerable to hits due to their positioning.

The fact that the Avs were rumoured to be after a RHD, especially Carlo who has term left, indicates that CMac is well aware that RHD is a priority position going forward.

The Avs have virtually no serious picks left until 2027, and beyond Behrens, Gulyayev, and Nabokov there isn't much to get excited about in the prospect pool, so CMac will likely need to get creative with how he goes about finding a long-term replacement for Manson when he hits UFA in 2026 (if not sooner).

The Helleson mention by AJ was intriguing simply because of the obvious fit. But there just isn't much the Avs have that would convince Anaheim to part with Helleson who's just now entering his prime. They're already loaded with D prospects so Behrens and Gulyayev wouldn't move the needle, and they're set in net so Nabokov wouldn't either. It would have to be more of a hockey trade involving a forward, like one or more of Lehkonen, Drury, Colton, and/or O'Connor, depending on how highly Anaheim value Helleson.

In general, if Landeskog returns and Drouin re-signs the Avs would have 5 top 6 forwards (Landeskog, Necas, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Drouin), so that would logically be the place to look when filling the hole at RHD.