Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

[Richard88]

Further to the post above, Malinski's first contract (shown below) was a 2 year league minimum deal with $75k bonuses. He's turning 27 in July when he'll be an arbitration eligible free agent.

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At first glance the closest comparables I could think of are Spence, Kesselring, and maybe Samberg.

Malinski has 86 games played and 20 points.

Spence $1.4m x 2 years, signed after 101 career games and 33 points.

Kesselring $1.4m x 2, signed after 74 career games and 24 points.

Samberg $1.4m x 2, signed after 78 career games and 13 points.

A big difference compared to those guys however is that those deals were all bridge deals where those players were going to be RFA's upon expiry. Malinski will already be 27 this offseason, meaning that there's only one more RFA year left, so any contract the Avs sign walks Malinski straight to UFA.

That being the case Malinski might push to around $2m+territory if the Avs want to sign him for more than 1 year. Given the Avs lack of organisational depth at RHD it probably makes sense to lock him in for 2-3 years if the AAV can be kept reasonably low still.

 

[dahrougem2]

I hope the Avs keep Malinski if he comes in around 1.5M. Points pay in this league and he doesn't produce much, but he also gets zero PP time. He had a very rough patch this season no doubt but he fits the Avs playing style to a tee.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Yeah, Malinski needs to stay and be re-signed.

We need to remember that Bednar's breakout system is very hard for defensemen who can't a) skate, b) retrieve under pressure, and c) make long breakout passes OR skate it out themselves. Malinski can do all of these, regardless if it doesn't result in points.

Given he gets no PP time and doesn't really put up points, this shouldn't be an expensive re-signing.

I'd be happy giving him a 2 or 3 year deal and keeping the AAV at $2m or under. That would be the going rate for a consistent, bottom pairing defenseman who doesn't get special teams time.

 

[MacKaRtin]

Yeah, Malinski needs to stay and be re-signed.

We need to remember that Bednar's breakout system is very hard for defensemen who can't a) skate, b) retrieve under pressure, and c) make long breakout passes OR skate it out themselves. Malinski can do all of these, regardless if it doesn't result in points.

Given he gets no PP time and doesn't really put up points, this shouldn't be an expensive re-signing.

I'd be happy giving him a 2 or 3 year deal and keeping the AAV at $2m or under. That would be the going rate for a consistent, bottom pairing defenseman who doesn't get special teams time.

I agree with the last paragraph. For borderline NHLers that the Avs find useful in their system, it could be a win-win for the Avs and Malinski to go multiple years at a sub $2M AAV. Avs get a player that can play in their system locked up for a figure that fits their salary structure. Malinski gets the security of knowing he'll have enough hockey earnings to lead a good life afterwards if he manages money wisely.

Logan O'Connor took a similar low AAV deal for us in a similar career position, and maybe Malinski would be comfortable with the same.

 

[Toothless Legend]

Malinski's development this year has been a treat to watch. He's always had talent, but he's really gotten comfortable with his role and the system overall. Aside from the great plays he's been making at both ends, to me the major unlock for him has been consistency. I wouldn't mind seeing him given a true shot at a top-4 role (especially if we need to move Sammy or Manson) to see how he handles it. If he falters, it can be addressed at TDL.

 

[dahrougem2]

Malinski's development this year has been a treat to watch. He's always had talent, but he's really gotten comfortable with his role and the system overall. Aside from the great plays he's been making at both ends, to me the major unlock for him has been consistency. I wouldn't mind seeing him given a true shot at a top-4 role (especially if we need to move Sammy or Manson) to see how he handles it. If he falters, it can be addressed at TDL.

I don't know that he's been consistent this season. He started out great for a couple of months, but he had a disastrous few months right after. Bednar even mentioned it a few weeks ago after one of Malinski's games saying it was the best he'd looked in months.

 

[BobRossColton]

Yeah, Malinski needs to stay and be re-signed.

We need to remember that Bednar's breakout system is very hard for defensemen who can't a) skate, b) retrieve under pressure, and c) make long breakout passes OR skate it out themselves. Malinski can do all of these, regardless if it doesn't result in points.

Given he gets no PP time and doesn't really put up points, this shouldn't be an expensive re-signing.

I'd be happy giving him a 2 or 3 year deal and keeping the AAV at $2m or under. That would be the going rate for a consistent, bottom pairing defenseman who doesn't get special teams time.

3x1.75, get it done

 

[Pokecheque]

I don't know that he's been consistent this season. He started out great for a couple of months, but he had a disastrous few months right after. Bednar even mentioned it a few weeks ago after one of Malinski's games saying it was the best he'd looked in months.

He was absolutely terrible for a good stretch there, but I'd also argue he was saddled with some absolute horseshit defensive partners for a huge chunk of the season. Ain't nobody gonna look that good when f***ing D-Hawn is on the other side.

That said, it feels like his extended downturn happened right around the time that he was paired with the Other Sam. Girard, who still doesn't look quite right since coming back from injury, and Malinski looked great to start, and then something happened. Recently when they've gotten paired up again it's looked relatively good in stretches. Maybe it was just a confidence issue, I don't know. Regardless, it's important they keep him around.

 

[Richard88]

Here's a list of RHS Dmen who's contracts expire in 2026 at the same time as Manson's (UFA's and RFA's).

 

[Pokecheque]

3x1.75, get it done

That won't get it done.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

That said, it feels like his extended downturn happened right around the time that he was paired with the Other Sam. Girard, who still doesn't look quite right since coming back from injury, and Malinski looked great to start, and then something happened. Recently when they've gotten paired up again it's looked relatively good in stretches. Maybe it was just a confidence issue, I don't know. Regardless, it's important they keep him around.

Somehow, the Girard-Malinski pairing have absolutely incredible analytics numbers. They were higher than Toews-Makar in corsi and possession some games. This pairing seems to spend 80% of the time in the offensive zone even with defensive zone starts. It shouldn't work so well on paper because both are undersized, offensive-minded defensemen, but they somehow dominate the play.

Anyways, nothing is as bad as Toews-Girard paired. They get absolutely hammered whenever Bednar puts them together for the odd shift.

 

[Richard88]

I don't know that he's been consistent this season. He started out great for a couple of months, but he had a disastrous few months right after. Bednar even mentioned it a few weeks ago after one of Malinski's games saying it was the best he'd looked in months.

He was absolutely terrible for a good stretch there, but I'd also argue he was saddled with some absolute horseshit defensive partners for a huge chunk of the season. Ain't nobody gonna look that good when f***ing D-Hawn is on the other side.

That said, it feels like his extended downturn happened right around the time that he was paired with the Other Sam. Girard, who still doesn't look quite right since coming back from injury, and Malinski looked great to start, and then something happened. Recently when they've gotten paired up again it's looked relatively good in stretches. Maybe it was just a confidence issue, I don't know. Regardless, it's important they keep him around.

As shown in the chart below Malinski's metrics to start the year when he was paired with DeHaan were really good. The parts with Girard have been good. The part of the season he was partnered with Middleton was a trainwreck, as highlighted in red below.

 

[Richard88]

3x1.75, get it done

At 3 years the AAV would start with a 2 most likely.

 

[Pokecheque]

Somehow, the Girard-Malinski pairing have absolutely incredible analytics numbers. They were higher than Toews-Makar in corsi and possession some games. This pairing seems to spend 80% of the time in the offensive zone even with defensive zone starts. It shouldn't work so well on paper because both are undersized, offensive-minded defensemen, but they somehow dominate the play.

Anyways, nothing is as bad as Toews-Girard paired. They get absolutely hammered whenever Bednar puts them together for the odd shift.

I swear the de-Haan/Girard pairing was good for a goal against per shift. They were THAT bad to the point where I went full cringe if they ever ended up on the ice together.

Their main issue might be what is plaguing Toews/Girard where neither of them can figure the f*** out which guy has to cover the right side of the ice. The positional sense just goes right out the window.

49/70 just seem really efficient at puck management, I agree it shouldn't necessarily work, but I'd argue both are pretty adept at picking the right puck battles and obviously both of them can skate and move the puck well once they have it. Near as I can tell, they're also both really good at forcing the opposition wide, something they have over even Makar IMO.

 

[Balthazar]

Somehow, the Girard-Malinski pairing have absolutely incredible analytics numbers. They were higher than Toews-Makar in corsi and possession some games. This pairing seems to spend 80% of the time in the offensive zone even with defensive zone starts. It shouldn't work so well on paper because both are undersized, offensive-minded defensemen, but they somehow dominate the play.

Anyways, nothing is as bad as Toews-Girard paired. They get absolutely hammered whenever Bednar puts them together for the odd shift.

Two LD playing together...having Girard on the right side is asking for trouble...and Toews can't play there.

As for the Sams playing together, it may be fine for regular season but I don't think it will work in the playoffs. We'll see.

 

[Pokecheque]

As shown in the chart below Malinski's metrics to start the year when he was paired with DeHaan were really good. The parts with Girard have been good. The part of the season he was partnered with Middleton was a trainwreck, as highlighted in red below.

View attachment 996127

Huh. That's good information.

 

[Pokecheque]

Two LD playing together...having Girard on the right side is asking for trouble...and Toews can't play there.

As for the Sams playing together, it may be fine for regular season but I don't think it will work in the playoffs. We'll see.

We'll see but yeah I could see them struggling against a Dallas forecheck.

 

[Richard88]

Somehow, the Girard-Malinski pairing have absolutely incredible analytics numbers. They were higher than Toews-Makar in corsi and possession some games. This pairing seems to spend 80% of the time in the offensive zone even with defensive zone starts. It shouldn't work so well on paper because both are undersized, offensive-minded defensemen, but they somehow dominate the play.

Anyways, nothing is as bad as Toews-Girard paired. They get absolutely hammered whenever Bednar puts them together for the odd shift.

Funnily enough Toews-Girard actually have the best Corsi of any Avs D pairing... but their xGF% is the 3rd worst.

And the DeHaan-Malinski pairing had some great metrics too, 55.58 CF% (3rd), 55,65 xG% (1st), and 62.86 HDCF% (1st).

Note: the charts below only include pairings with 100mins TOI or more.

 

[Pokecheque]

That's so weird, why doesn't Toews/Malinski work?

 

[BobRossColton]

At 3 years the AAV would start with a 2 most likely.

Just flip his number, 3x2.07

 

[Richard88]

Filtering for minimum 30mins TOI:

The early returns for the Girard-EJ pairing are great (60.47 CF%).

Same with Lindgren-Manson (57.14 CF%).

 

[Richard88]

That's so weird, why doesn't Toews/Malinski work?

Small sample size...

Only 105 mins played together. Their Corsi is great at 54.5 CF%, just their HDCF% is bad 46.67%. But that's based on 21 HDCF and 24 HDCA which is just not a lot of data.

 

[Toothless Legend]

I don't know that he's been consistent this season. He started out great for a couple of months, but he had a disastrous few months right after. Bednar even mentioned it a few weeks ago after one of Malinski's games saying it was the best he'd looked in months.

Yeah, I guess to drill down, it's been a steady improvement as time has gone on. From last year to this year, from the early part of the season to where we are now, it feels like the mistakes are happening much less frequently and he's blending into the furniture when he isn't purely on offense.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Malinski has really turned the corner since the deadline. I think he was afraid he'd be the one to get moved and has felt a confidence boost from management

 

[Richard88]

Nemec is the guy the Avs need to be pushing for this offseason.

He's stuck in the depth chart behind Hamilton, Pesce, and Kovacevic, all three of whom are signed for $4m+ for 4-6 years. Hamilton has a NMC, Pesce has a NTC, and Kovacevic's contract only starts next season. Clearly there's no room there for Nemec.

Looking at NJ's offseason roster the only big contract they have to deal with is Luke Hughes. Signing him at around $7m, plus depth guys like Bastian and Sprong, would leave them with about $5m for one last forward. They have Glass to sign too but that probably isn't a huge priority if they can make a bigger move for a top 6 forward...

With that said, what would work cap-wise for them might be something around Lehkonen/Nemec (adding 1sts/lesser picks/prospects as appropriate).

Not sure if 2 years of Lehkonen at $4.5m before he hits UFA in 2027 would be enough as the central piece, but maybe it would at least give them something to think about. A proven winner and glue guy like him would be a nice add for a young team looking to take the next step. The Avs probably don't have any futures to outbid other teams with so that would likely be the only avenue to get it done.

From the Avs perspective they're already pretty full on the wings, especially if Landeskog returns and if they re-sign Drouin as one would expect they will. Losing Lehkonen would hurt obviously, but filling the 2 RHD spot long-term would be important.

Given that Nemec is still on an ELC a trade around Lehkonen and Nemec would also save the Avs $3.5m in capspace which could feasibly give the Avs enough capspace to re-sign guys.

Nelson $6.5m x 4-5 years
Drouin $4m
Lindgren $4m
Kiviranta $1.5m
Malinski $1.5m
+ Trade Colton and Wood for capspace, and roll with the roster below.

Manson/Nemec/Malinski would rotate in the bottom 4 depending on who's healthy, and then in 2026 Nemec would take over from Manson full-time. Manson's $4.5m rolling off would cover a raise for Nemec.

New Jersey would have to REALLY like Lehkonen to do that admittedly. They're likely going to have 20+ teams calling and making offers for Nemec so it's quite a long-shot that he'd end up on the Avs. But it would be pretty nice if it happened.