Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

[cyris]

Please walk us through why you think signing IKF at the term and $ amount was not a terrible signing.

If you believe in your statement, defend it. You are the one saying that it doesn't make sense for others to think it was a terrible signing.

Show your math...defend the signing.

Well he produced a little over 3 WAR in around half a season, he was probably on pace to win the utility gold glove before he got hurt and a team just gave us a recently drafted solid prospect for him.

So your turn. How was it a bad signing? Defend your position.

 

[Blitzkrug]

At the time, it was a pretty bad signing. Giving the type of term and money to a guy with a career OPS+ of 93 to come to a team who desperately needed some type of extra reinforcement on offense was a bad look. It made Atkins look even dumber for doubling down on his runs saved team model. Doubly so because he was going to get significant playing time. (This is also with the knowledge of how awful he was with the Yankees)

But for reasons not understood, IKF decided to learn to hit the baseball and make himself a pretty valuable piece. He's ready beat his career best fWAR mark of 1.6 by 0.4 and counting.

Bad signing at the time. In hindsight? Actually pretty good.

If he doesn't get hurt there's a punchers chance he makes the all-star team

 

[Discoverer]

At the time, it was a pretty bad signing. Giving the type of term and money to a guy with a career OPS+ of 93 to come to a team who desperately needed some type of extra reinforcement on offense was a bad look. It made Atkins look even dumber for doubling down on his runs saved team model. Doubly so because he was going to get significant playing time. (This is also with the knowledge of how awful he was with the Yankees)

But for reasons not understood, IKF decided to learn to hit the baseball and make himself a pretty valuable piece. He's ready beat his career best fWAR mark of 1.6 by 0.4 and counting.

Bad signing at the time. In hindsight? Actually pretty good.

If he doesn't get hurt there's a punchers chance he makes the all-star team

I say this as someone who REALLY didn't like the signing when it happened: I think a huge part of any move is anticipating what a player will become going forward. If you look at a 1 WAR bench player and think he's a small tweak away from becoming a 3+ WAR regular, then overpaying (based on him being a 1 WAR player) to convince him to come here makes a lot of sense. There's a good chance you're wrong and it just looks like a bad signing, but the signing should be re-evaluated if it works out. People doubling down on "it was a terrible signing" is really strange given the result.

Obviously this works in reverse, too... if you bring someone in on a good contract and they end up providing nothing, that's a bad deal because it's your job to anticipate what players will become.

 

[Nineteen67]

I wonder what the offers were for Bassitt and Gausman?

 

[Eyedea]

While i will acknowledge his deadline was very good, you're the reason the team is in this spot, Ross.

This f***ing dork has been here 9 years and has produced two seasons of actually competitive baseball. I don't count last year because they only got in because the Mariners decided to be the Mariners and everyone knew that team didn't have a hope in hell of making a run. Why is he allowed to keep his job?

Rogers used their influence within MLSE to try shitcan Masai Ujiri after the Raptors won the NBA championship because they "didn't like his attitude." and yet they let this guy stick around?

The only way he should be even considered to stick around is if he cleans house on the schlubs that need to be fired. Martinez, Hudgens, and Mattingly. All three of them should have been fired after last year but nooooo. And even then i probbaly want him in the unemployment line with the rest of them.

What exactly does a “competitive” ball club look like? Because one could argue they were competitive from 2020-2023 after a fairly short rebuild. Some teams have been rebuilding since the Jays first competitive window (2015-2016) and haven’t had anything to show for it…

 

[Bjindaho]

What exactly does a “competitive” ball club look like? Because one could argue they were competitive from 2020-2023 after a fairly short rebuild. Some teams have been rebuilding since the Jays first competitive window (2015-2016) and haven’t had anything to show for it…

I agree that this team was competitive for that 4 year span.

Where I have an issue is that it is clear that the front office doesn't believe in fiscal responsibility. There is no way that this year's roster should have been a tax-paying team. There were obvious holes from day 1 (the Jays broke camp with 4 starters).

Between that and the poor prospect pool that Toronto has had (for nearly the entirety of their reign), these are the issues that I see and that concern me.

 

[Bjindaho]

I agree that this team was competitive for that 4 year span.

Where I have an issue is that it is clear that the front office doesn't believe in fiscal responsibility. There is no way that this year's roster should have been a tax-paying team. There were obvious holes from day 1 (the Jays broke camp with 4 starters).

Between that and the poor prospect pool that Toronto has had (for nearly the entirety of their reign), these are the issues that I see and that concern me.

Using FG (because it is an easy sort),

the Jays have been in the 20s the last 3 years, 5 the year before that, 16 before that, and 5 before that.

Of course, those pools including guys that pre-dated the current regime and a heavy influence of the 2016 group (which was drafted by an entirely different scouting staff).

 

[Discoverer]

What exactly does a “competitive” ball club look like? Because one could argue they were competitive from 2020-2023 after a fairly short rebuild. Some teams have been rebuilding since the Jays first competitive window (2015-2016) and haven’t had anything to show for it…

Yeah, and the idea that 2023 doesn't count because another team was worse is a little strange.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I hope in the off season they fire Martinez, and Mattingly. I don’t know if Edwin Encranacion is interested in being a coach full time, but I’d welcome him being one of our full time hitting coaches next year. Along with Matt Hague. Would love to have Eddy around the team all the time.

 

[aingefan]

I wonder what the offers were for Bassitt and Gausman?

And Green.
I’m actually most curious what offers there were on Bo and Vlad, if any.

 

[Nineteen67]

And Green.
I’m actually most curious what offers there were on Bo and Vlad, if any.

Bo and Vlad were understandably not available, but they could’ve moved some of the pitchers.

 

[aingefan]

Bo and Vlad were understandably not available, but they could’ve moved some of the pitchers.

Yeah, I get the teams stance on keeping their best controlled players but that doesn’t stop teams from offering. There was a strong case for moving at least one of Bassitt/Gausman, so yeah that’s interesting.
But the interest in the premium guys is more interesting imo.
Reports had SEA hot for Vladdy, and offering at least their top two prospects (C and SS both at AA, both ranked in Fangraphs top 50 both with FV of 50).
Reports say Bo wouldn’t be surprised by a trade and that the industry values him for what he has been in his career, not this years injured underperforming version.
Neither have signed long term and the clock is reaching decision time.
Any offers on those guys interest me more.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, I get the teams stance on keeping their best controlled players but that doesn’t stop teams from offering. There was a strong case for moving at least one of Bassitt/Gausman, so yeah that’s interesting.
But the interest in the premium guys is more interesting imo.
Reports had SEA hot for Vladdy, and offering at least their top two prospects (C and SS both at AA, both ranked in Fangraphs top 50 both with FV of 50).
Reports say Bo wouldn’t be surprised by a trade and that the industry values him for what he has been in his career, not this years injured underperforming version.
Neither have signed long term and the clock is reaching decision time.
Any offers on those guys interest me more.

I was a firm believer that the Jays should have paid market value after the 2021 season regardless of how bad it would have looked early on. There hasn't been a point in the past 3 years that signing him would have been a terrible deal (because a smart contract would have essentially paid him exactly what he got in arbitration which was predictable then add on market value for the extra years).

There's a reason that long-term deals didn't get traction and there is no way that it was the player's side (although it wouldn't shock me if Bo is less receptive now than he was 3 years ago).

 

[Puckstuff]

It’s taking very long to get the Vlad deal done. This has to be priority 1. Get it done ASAP.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yeah, I get the teams stance on keeping their best controlled players but that doesn’t stop teams from offering. There was a strong case for moving at least one of Bassitt/Gausman, so yeah that’s interesting.
But the interest in the premium guys is more interesting imo.
Reports had SEA hot for Vladdy, and offering at least their top two prospects (C and SS both at AA, both ranked in Fangraphs top 50 both with FV of 50).
Reports say Bo wouldn’t be surprised by a trade and that the industry values him for what he has been in his career, not this years injured underperforming version.
Neither have signed long term and the clock is reaching decision time.
Any offers on those guys interest me more.

I don’t know, but an offer of their top 2 prospects doesn’t really blow me away. It’s a great offer, but nothing that should make Atkins pull the trigger. Give me one of their stud pitchers on top of that, then maybe. They don't have to move Vladdy for just a "great or fair offer".

 

[aingefan]

Those two are obviously the biggest dominos of the off-season ahead.

There’s so much emphasis from the fo about competing in ‘25. Not enough talk about ‘26 and beyond.

 

[aingefan]

I don’t know, but an offer of their top 2 prospects doesn’t really blow me away. It’s a great offer, but nothing that should make Atkins pull the trigger. Give me one of their stud pitchers on top of that, then maybe. They don't have to move Vladdy for just a "great or fair offer".

That’s fair. I tend to agree with you, obviously not knowing the totality of the offer - just that those two assets were in there. Both would have been smart fits, at least. I do think if either guy is traded, a package should include at least one controllable quality arm.
The off-season might be the better time to make that kind of trade, when budgets are being set and rosters constructed.
Their future is the big story in any case.

 

[tmlms13]

Nate Pearson got ejected in his first appearance for the Cubs. It was for intentionally throwing at a batter and those usually come with suspensions lol

I guess that change of scenery didn't help

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Jays currently in line for the 5th best odds in next year's draft, but are not far from Washington and "Anaheim" for 4th and 3rd.

Kiley has 3 players projected as 50FV guys.

Cam Cannarella, CF, NCAA



Jace LaViolette, CF, NCAA



Ethan Holliday, 3B, HS

 

[ryno23]

I'd trade Bichette this offseason to the Dodgers. Not sure the Dodgers would do it but they have unlimited money. Betts can move back to the OF. Othani is back to pitching next year so losing 2 current pitchers is offset with Bassit coming over.


Tor -
SS - Bichette
SP - Bassit

for

LAD

SP - Bobby Miller
C - Diego Cartaya
SP - Dustin May
INF - Gavin Lux

 

[DuklaNation]

Other than Bloss, the other players seem like non top 5/6 starting lineup guys or depth pitchers. Jays didn't trade any key pieces, so you're not getting top prospects. Fixing this team must require something other than a yard sale.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

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www.mlb.com

3. Jake Bloss, RHP, Blue Jays (No. 3)
Acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade
Bloss has been one of the breakout stories of the Minor League season, going from a third-round pick out of Georgetown last year to the Majors this summer. Paul Skenes and Hurston Waldrep are the only other pitchers from the 2023 Draft class to see The Show to this point. Bloss’ 92-94 mph fastball and multiple above-average breaking balls give him a well-rounded arsenal, and that should give him plenty of shots at the Toronto rotation

18. Jonatan Clase, OF, Blue Jays (No. 8)
Acquired from the Mariners in the Yimi Garcia trade

26. Charles McAdoo, OF, Blue Jays (No. 14)
Acquired from the Pirates in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade

33. Eddinson Paulino, INF, Blue Jays (No. 21)
Acquired from the Red Sox in the Danny Jansen trade

36. Will Wagner, 1B/2B/3B, Blue Jays (No. 22)
Acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade

45. Yohendrick Pinango, OF, Blue Jays (No. 27)
Acquired from the Cubs in the Nate Pearson trade

49. Cutter Coffey, 3B/SS, Blue Jays (No. 29)
Acquired from the Red Sox in the Danny Jansen trade

53. RJ Schreck, OF, Blue Jays (No. 30)
Acquired from the Mariners in the Justin Turner trade

 

[Discoverer]

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www.mlb.com

3. Jake Bloss, RHP, Blue Jays (No. 3)
Acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade
Bloss has been one of the breakout stories of the Minor League season, going from a third-round pick out of Georgetown last year to the Majors this summer. Paul Skenes and Hurston Waldrep are the only other pitchers from the 2023 Draft class to see The Show to this point. Bloss’ 92-94 mph fastball and multiple above-average breaking balls give him a well-rounded arsenal, and that should give him plenty of shots at the Toronto rotation

18. Jonatan Clase, OF, Blue Jays (No. 8)
Acquired from the Mariners in the Yimi Garcia trade

26. Charles McAdoo, OF, Blue Jays (No. 14)
Acquired from the Pirates in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade

33. Eddinson Paulino, INF, Blue Jays (No. 21)
Acquired from the Red Sox in the Danny Jansen trade

36. Will Wagner, 1B/2B/3B, Blue Jays (No. 22)
Acquired from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade

45. Yohendrick Pinango, OF, Blue Jays (No. 27)
Acquired from the Cubs in the Nate Pearson trade

49. Cutter Coffey, 3B/SS, Blue Jays (No. 29)
Acquired from the Red Sox in the Danny Jansen trade

53. RJ Schreck, OF, Blue Jays (No. 30)
Acquired from the Mariners in the Justin Turner trade

I would have expected Coffey to be a bit higher given his age, performance, and draft pedigree, but I guess he'll be somewhat limited unless he can lock down a defensive position.

I imagine Loperfido would be somewhere in the 5-10 range if he hadn't graduated from the list.

 

[tmlfan98]

Jays currently in line for the 5th best odds in next year's draft, but are not far from Washington and "Anaheim" for 4th and 3rd.

Kiley has 3 players projected as 50FV guys.

Cam Cannarella, CF, NCAA



Jace LaViolette, CF, NCAA



Ethan Holliday, 3B, HS

If the top of the draft is only headlined by 3 50 FV guys (assuming Kiley is using Fangraphs scale), that would mean it's likely a weak draft at the top. This year's draft was also headlined by a group of 50 FV guys (6 to be exact), and it was considered weak at the top.

2023 had 1 60 and 2 55s (Paul Skenes/Dylan Crews/Wyatt Langford)
2022 had 1 60 and 3 55s (Druw Jones/Jackson Holliday/Brooks Lee/Temarr Johnson)
2021 was headlined by 7 50 FVs
2020 was headlined by 1 55, who was Spencer Torkelson lol (this was also the Austin Martin draft where he was one of the 50 FV tier 2 guys at the top)

Not to diminish the value of 50 FV prospects, because by Fangraphs scale that automatically makes you a top 100 prospect. But a 55+ FV guy automatically slots into the overall rankings as at least a top 30-40 prospect.

 

[Discoverer]

If the top of the draft is only headlined by 3 50 FV guys (assuming Kiley is using Fangraphs scale), that would mean it is likely a weak draft at the top. This year's draft was also headlined by a group of 50 FV guys (6 to be exact), and it was considered weak at the top.

2023 had 1 60 and 2 55s (Paul Skenes/Dylan Crews/Wyatt Langford)
2022 had 1 60 and 3 55s (Druw Jones/Jackson Holliday/Brooks Lee/Temarr Johnson)
2021 was headlined by 7 50 FVs
2020 was headlined by 1 55, who was Spencer Torkelson lol (this was also the Austin Martin draft where he was one of the 50 FV tier 2 guys at the top)

I don't follow pre-draft stuff very closely at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's common for evaluators to be conservative with ratings when we're this far out from the draft and that some of the top guys will be bumped up as they have another year to prove themselves.

Someone like @TheMadHatTrick would know way better than me, though.