Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[The Nemesis]

They just gave Loperfido #9. The blatant JP Arencibia disrespect

 

[Blitzkrug]

Kinda feels like the start of a new era.

 

[dredeye]

They just gave Loperfido #9. The blatant JP Arencibia disrespect

Remember that JP poster that used to go nuts defending him all the time? He ended up changing his name to try and be sly and then disappeared.

 

[MS]

Please walk us through why you think signing IKF at the term and $ amount was not a terrible signing.

If you believe in your statement, defend it. You are the one saying that it doesn't make sense for others to think it was a terrible signing.

Show your math...defend the signing.

1 WAR in baseball is generally perceived to on average cost $8 million.

That means that in a half-season of baseball before getting hurt IKF provided ~$25 million in value in exchange for $3.75 million in salary.

That’s, like 700% return on investment and over $20 million in surplus value.

It was probably the single best FA signing in baseball last winter.

 

[DuklaNation]

IKF was a useful utility guy ideally as first infield option off the bench, only used as a starter if the rest of the offense was above average. Trying to assign a dollar value to a player like this is really chasing some stat justification.

 

[MS]

IKF was a useful utility guy ideally as first infield option off the bench, only used as a starter if the rest of the offense was above average. Trying to assign a dollar value to a player like this is really chasing some stat justification.

He started virtually every game for the first half of the season and was one of the team’s best offensive players.

It’s like people decided they hated the signing in December and didn’t watch a single game though the first half of the season and are now popping up again when the guy gets traded just to re-iterate their previous wrong position that the signing sucked.

Dude was on pace for a 6 WAR season through the first 3 months.

 

[DuklaNation]

He started virtually every game for the first half of the season and was one of the team’s best offensive players.

It’s like people decided they hated the signing in December and didn’t watch a single game though the first half of the season and are now popping up again when the guy gets traded just to re-iterate their previous wrong position that the signing sucked.

Dude was on pace for a 6 WAR season through the first 3 months.

Personally feel these WAR stats are overrated. I wouldn't mind starting an IKF type player if offense is already good. Otherwise, his impact isn't significant. No problem dumping him in a house cleaning scenario. They only signed him because they were desperate for a 3rd baseman.

 

[MS]

Personally feel these WAR stats are overrated. I wouldn't mind starting an IKF type player if offense is already good. Otherwise, his impact isn't significant. No problem dumping him in a house cleaning scenario. They only signed him because they were desperate for a 3rd baseman.

If you don’t like WAR then you can just say that he’s unquestionably an elite defender who put up the 2nd best offensive numbers on the team behind Guerrero in the 1st half of the season and an OPS+ of 115.

That’s obviously a starting-quality player and whether it was a desperate signing or not he replaced Chapman’s contribution at a fraction of the cost. It was a great signing. I know it’s trendy to say that the worst management in history got everything wrong but they very obviously got this one right.

 

[DuklaNation]

If you don’t like WAR then you can just say that he’s unquestionably an elite defender who put up the 2nd best offensive numbers on the team behind Guerrero in the 1st half of the season and an OPS+ of 115.

That’s obviously a starting-quality player and whether it was a desperate signing or not he replaced Chapman’s contribution at a fraction of the cost. It was a great signing. I know it’s trendy to say that the worst management in history got everything wrong but they very obviously got this one right.

I grew up with Tony Fernandez and Roberto Alomar. IKF is a good defender. Elite? No.

 

[Discoverer]

I grew up with Tony Fernandez and Roberto Alomar. IKF is a good defender. Elite? No.

I grew up with those guys, too. IKF is an elite defender.

 

[DuklaNation]

I grew up with those guys, too. IKF is an elite defender.

LOL. Thats a conversation ender. IKF isn't even close to an Alomar on defense.

 

[MS]

I grew up with Tony Fernandez and Roberto Alomar. IKF is a good defender. Elite? No.

Ah, nostalgia.

All of the numbers (and Gold Gloves) state pretty clearly that IKF is an elite defender.

 

[Discoverer]

LOL. Thats a conversation ender. IKF isn't even close to an Alomar on defense.

I mean, I never said he was, and I don't know how you're even comparing them other than feelings.

For one thing, calling IKF elite means he's one of the best defensive players in the game today. I don't need to compare him to someone from 25 years ago to do that.

And also... IKF primarily played a position that Alomar never once played in his life, so I don't really understand where that comparison is comping from.

 

[MS]

I mean, I never said he was, and I don't know how you're even comparing them other than feelings.

For one thing, calling IKF elite means he's one of the best defensive players in the game today. I don't need to compare him to someone from 25 years ago to do that.

And also... IKF primarily played a position that Alomar never once played in his life, so I don't really understand where that comparison is comping from.

But I saw Brooks Robinson play!

It’s silly. Historical players are irrelevant to whether IKF is one of the top 5% of defensive players in MLB today, which he obviously is.

 

[Discoverer]

But I saw Brooks Robinson play!

It’s silly. Historical players are irrelevant to whether IKF is one of the top 5% of defensive players in MLB today, which he obviously is.

Yep. Not only is Alomar irrelevant to this discussion, but I'm not a big fan of "I just know, and if you disagree or question me it's because you're wrong" type arguments.

 

[MS]

Yep. Not only is Alomar irrelevant to this discussion, but I'm not a big fan of "I just know, and if you disagree or question me it's because you're wrong" type arguments.

I’m also not really wanting to go down the rabbit hole of whether Alomar was actually elite defensively during his Toronto years.

 

[tmlfan98]

Jays farm system slightly improved by 3 spots in Fangraphs updated rankings. After the sell off of expiring contracts, went from 25th to 22nd.

 

[Amadeus]

Fire ASS

Atkins, Shapiro and Schneider.

 

[Kurtz]

1 WAR in baseball is generally perceived to on average cost $8 million.

That means that in a half-season of baseball before getting hurt IKF provided ~$25 million in value in exchange for $3.75 million in salary.

That’s, like 700% return on investment and over $20 million in surplus value.

It was probably the single best FA signing in baseball last winter.

What's your source on this and are you sure you've read it correctly?

I say this because the average MLB salary is $5m and an average MLB starter produces fWAR of 2.0. IKF is currently sitting at 2.0 fWAR through half a season. (3.1 bWar).

Are you talking about the worth of each incremental 1 WAR past the 2.0 baseline? fWar or bWar? In either case, that would make more sense I think.

And are you talking about average of all players, or just players signed in free agency costing $8m for each 1 WAR above the baseline (or each 1 WAR period) in which case that would largely just be making a case against signing UFAs, period.


With regards to IKF, two things can be true:

1. It was a bad value signing based on his historical production compared to the other infielders who signed last season.

2. He's having a career season, hitting 100 OPS points higher than his career average, so he more than justified his contract so far. However, it is far more likely statistically that he will regress to his career average rather than be this whole new player. Now, he wouldn't be the first player to break out at age 29, but it's just statistically unlikely. This seems to be the opinion shared by GMS, otherwise the trade return on him would have been much higher.

 

[Killer Orcas]

Jays farm system slightly improved by 3 spots in Fangraphs updating rankings. After the sell off of expiring contracts, went from 25th to 22nd.

Damn we really that bad still eh. Ouch

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Jays farm system slightly improved by 3 spots in Fangraphs updating rankings. After the sell off of expiring contracts, went from 25th to 22nd.

Yikes.

Thanks for the solid trade deadline, Ross, but don't let the door hit you on the way out.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't follow pre-draft stuff very closely at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's common for evaluators to be conservative with ratings when we're this far out from the draft and that some of the top guys will be bumped up as they have another year to prove themselves.

Someone like @TheMadHatTrick would know way better than me, though.

Exactly. That's what I was going to say. It's pretty early to ultimately assess how many 50FV players there will be in this draft so typically they'll only list the guys who are most likely to be there in a years time.

For reference, Paul Skenes was not even ranked among ESPN's 50FV or 45FV prospects for the 2023 draft in their initial rankings, while Jacob Wilson and Enrique Bradfield were.

Way-too-early 2023 MLB draft rankings: Kiley McDaniel's initial top 50 prospects

Now that the 2022 draft is behind us, we're already turning the page to next summer's top prospects.

www.espn.com

Having said that, it is looking to be a weaker draft at this early stage, but I expect guys to pop up by next spring who we're not even talking about yet. We'll still get a good player, though it may make sense to cut a deal with a guy to save some money for later picks.

 

[Eyedea]

What's your source on this and are you sure you've read it correctly?

I say this because the average MLB salary is $5m and an average MLB starter produces fWAR of 2.0. IKF is currently sitting at 2.0 fWAR through half a season. (3.1 bWar).

Are you talking about the worth of each incremental 1 WAR past the 2.0 baseline? fWar or bWar? In either case, that would make more sense I think.

And are you talking about average of all players, or just players signed in free agency costing $8m for each 1 WAR above the baseline (or each 1 WAR period) in which case that would largely just be making a case against signing UFAs, period.


With regards to IKF, two things can be true:

1. It was a bad value signing based on his historical production compared to the other infielders who signed last season.

2. He's having a career season, hitting 100 OPS points higher than his career average, so he more than justified his contract so far. However, it is far more likely statistically that he will regress to his career average rather than be this whole new player. Now, he wouldn't be the first player to break out at age 29, but it's just statistically unlikely. This seems to be the opinion shared by GMS, otherwise the trade return on him would have been much higher.

Cost-controlled players add significantly more surplus value, but you also have to take into account the resources put into developing that player before they make it to the bigs (including draft/signing bonuses). Whereas a free agent hypothetically costs you nothing but the salary.

And $5m per 1 win in free agency may have been something a decade ago, but not now considering the average mlb salary you mentioned is $5m and takes those pre-arb, arb, and no role into account. The average player also doesn’t accumulate 2 wins, that’s what would be considered the average starter.

 

[Bjindaho]

What's your source on this and are you sure you've read it correctly?

I say this because the average MLB salary is $5m and an average MLB starter produces fWAR of 2.0. IKF is currently sitting at 2.0 fWAR through half a season. (3.1 bWar).

Are you talking about the worth of each incremental 1 WAR past the 2.0 baseline? fWar or bWar? In either case, that would make more sense I think.

And are you talking about average of all players, or just players signed in free agency costing $8m for each 1 WAR above the baseline (or each 1 WAR period) in which case that would largely just be making a case against signing UFAs, period.


With regards to IKF, two things can be true:

1. It was a bad value signing based on his historical production compared to the other infielders who signed last season.

2. He's having a career season, hitting 100 OPS points higher than his career average, so he more than justified his contract so far. However, it is far more likely statistically that he will regress to his career average rather than be this whole new player. Now, he wouldn't be the first player to break out at age 29, but it's just statistically unlikely. This seems to be the opinion shared by GMS, otherwise the trade return on him would have been much higher.

FWIW, the average player puts up significantly less than 2.0fWAR.

The last one I saw had it at something like 8.7M per fWAR, but Fangraphs publishes them every couple of years.

I was a fan of the IKF signing in the sense that if you can afford 7.5M, he's a better Espinal (with borderline starter ability). He outperformed that, but the Jays couldn't afford it in retrospect.

 

[Kurtz]

Cost-controlled players add significantly more surplus value, but you also have to take into account the resources put into developing that player before they make it to the bigs (including draft/signing bonuses). Whereas a free agent hypothetically costs you nothing but the salary.

And $5m per 1 win in free agency may have been something a decade ago, but not now considering the average mlb salary you mentioned is $5m and takes those pre-arb, arb, and no role into account. The average player also doesn’t accumulate 2 wins, that’s what would be considered the average starter.

I did write average starter. Also the figure was $8m per war (not sure if the reference is to fWar or bWar).

I'm not sure that adding signing bonuses to the equation would be of much use - you'd have to amortize the bonus over the length of a player's first 6 year contract, which on average would amount to a relatively miniscule amount.