Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

[Discoverer]

Or it could simply be Click being a voice in the room. Is it your view that Atkins would blatantly ignore comments from Click that these were guys going after? Or is it your view that Click would only be partaking in these discussions if he was n charge?

Now it's always possible that Click is indeed driving the bus, but I fail to see how the players acquired in this deal would actually be evidence of that.

If anything, considering the Kikuchi trade, it seems like Click might still secretly have a voice in the Astros room.

 

[stats1]

This is going to be a wild winter for the Jays. They got under the tax so instead of paying 50% god being a 2 time offender it’ll be 20%. I expect the payroll to take a massive hike. I think it’s going to be around 260-270 million. They are going to big time fishing.

They don’t want to lose the fans especially after the renovations

 

[shaner8989]

This is going to be a wild winter for the Jays. They got under the tax so instead of paying 50% god being a 2 time offender it’ll be 20%. I expect the payroll to take a massive hike. I think it’s going to be around 260-270 million. They are going to big time fishing.

They don’t want to lose the fans especially after the renovations

Problem is there are not even close to competing. Doubt they sign anyone. 2026 might be more of a target year. Next year will be a learning curve season to see how good most of the team is. Horwitz, Barger, Schnieder, Berroa, Clement… are these guys legit? Next year will let us know.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[francis246]

Problem is there are not even close to competing. Doubt they sign anyone. 2026 might be more of a target year. Next year will be a learning curve season to see how good most of the team is. Horwitz, Barger, Schnieder, Berroa, Clement… are these guys legit? Next year will let us know.

even if we can get 3 of those guys to become legit everyday players thats a win. I think Horwitz, Barger and Schnieder are guys with legit bats.

 

[Suntouchable13]

You guys have a mindset of a small market team. Watch, TB will be good and we’re going to be last place. But you guys are happy. Yay, let’s lose 90+ games.

 

[Starry Knight]

A healthy Bo and signing Soto would make the Jays an instant contender in 2025. I would love to see the coaching staff cleared out too, so the people that keep breaking the swings of good players are gone.

 

[Woodman19]

You guys have a mindset of a small market team. Watch, TB will be good and we’re going to be last place. But you guys are happy. Yay, let’s lose 90+ games.

So what's the other option here, trade what little farm we have to heroically finish .500 on a $300 mil payroll?

 

[Discoverer]

A healthy Bo and signing Soto would make the Jays an instant contender in 2025. I would love to see the coaching staff cleared out too, so the people that keep breaking the swings of good players are gone.

I know I'm probably just getting my hopes up after an exciting trade, but a few of the guys they've received so far should be able to replace the outgoing free agents for next year.

Bloss should give you a cheap back-end starter with upside. Loperfido gives you a solid, versatile OF with some pop. Clase gives you a switch-hitting speedster as a 4th OF. Wagner can be a high-OBP utility infielder.

Nothing's a given, obviously, but if a few of them can fill those roles, maybe you don't feel the need to spend $30 million on guys like Turner, Kiermaier, and IKF, and you can consolidate that into one big signing instead.

I'm not particularly confident in that last part, but they at least have a lot of solid, cheap major league pieces in place, and right now they really just need more high-end talent.

 

[Canucks LB]

I am still buzzing from yesterday

 

[Woodman19]

I am still buzzing from yesterday

Same, that was a trade the Rays always seem to make. Anything from here on out is gravy so I can enjoy today in peace with that win already in the bank.

 

[Canucks LB]

Extending vladdy is the most likely call, but man imagine the haul u can get

 

[Eyedea]

Heading into 2025?

Gausman
Berrios
Bassitt
FA
YRod/Francis

YRod/Francis
Bloss
Manoah (longterm IL)
Tiedemann (longterm IL)
Macko (IL)

 

[canucksfan]

Heading into 2025?

Gausman
Berrios
Bassitt
FA
YRod/Francis

YRod/Francis
Bloss
Manoah
Tiedemann
Macko

My biggest concern going into next season is the top three in the rotation. Bassitt will be 36 and his stuff has declined this year. Gausman 33 and his stuff has also taken a hit this year.

 

[ULF_55]

I suppose the title could be, 2024 - The Selling Season

 

[ER89]

I know I'm probably just getting my hopes up after an exciting trade, but a few of the guys they've received so far should be able to replace the outgoing free agents for next year.

Bloss should give you a cheap back-end starter with upside. Loperfido gives you a solid, versatile OF with some pop. Clase gives you a switch-hitting speedster as a 4th OF. Wagner can be a high-OBP utility infielder.

Nothing's a given, obviously, but if a few of them can fill those roles, maybe you don't feel the need to spend $30 million on guys like Turner, Kiermaier, and IKF, and you can consolidate that into one big signing instead.

I'm not particularly confident in that last part, but they at least have a lot of solid, cheap major league pieces in place, and right now they really just need more high-end talent.

Funny part is nothing you said is farfetched.

Hopefully we add a third young guy to the core in Soto but let's see. If vladdy goes we riot. That's all i know.

 

[Eyedea]

My biggest concern going into next season is the top three in the rotation. Bassitt will be 36 and his stuff has declined this year. Gausman 33 and his stuff has also taken a hit this year.

Gausman’s been really weird this season, likely due to the delayed start. His home/away splits have been complete 180s in performance.

Bassitt’s a pretty unique case in that he had a string of injuries early in his pro career but has been durable in his 30s. There’s an obvious risk due to age, but he also has thrown less pro innings than Berrios/Gausman.

 

[stats1]

I’m kind of hyped after the trade last night. Imagine the haul the Jays could get for Vladdy! Hell trade Bassitt and Vladdy and you go from having a bottom 5 farm system to top 10

 

[Discoverer]

I’m kind of hyped after the trade last night. Imagine the haul the Jays could get for Vladdy! Hell trade Bassitt and Vladdy and you go from having a bottom 5 farm system to top 10

Vladdy's a player you should be giving a ton of money to and building around for the next decade.

 

[LaP]

Vladdy's a player you should be giving a ton of money to and building around for the next decade.

People forget he's quite young. Turned 25 last march. It's the age players usually start their prime in baseball.

 

[Vector]

People forget he's quite young. Turned 25 last march. It's the age players usually start their prime in baseball.

He's almost 2 years young than Horwitz, for perspective.

 

[Woodman19]

I would be all for locking in Guerrero but resetting the rest of the older parts of the roster so we can retool around him. Not sure how practical it is with the finances we are on the hook for.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I’m kind of hyped after the trade last night. Imagine the haul the Jays could get for Vladdy! Hell trade Bassitt and Vladdy and you go from having a bottom 5 farm system to top 10

It's highly unlikely that you're getting anything close to a Vladdy-type player back, nor will it be likely the 3 or 4 parts would sum up to Vladdy.

He should be signed, and signed for a very long time. He's the franchise player and has been with the team since he's been a teenager. I hope he's here for his entire career.

Moving Vladdy would set the franchise back into irrelevant times again. I'm most disappointed that he has yet to be signed -- that should have been done within the last year or two already.

 

[Eyedea]

Vladdy's a player you should be giving a ton of money to and building around for the next decade.

Vladdy’s Vladdy, but a top 10 farm system could give us anything!

 

[phillipmike]

Yusei Kikuchi Returns an Astronomical Haul for the Blue Jays

This would’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a solid prospect for a mid-rotation rental. But then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in significantly more.

blogs.fangraphs.com

One of the guys Houston has turned to for innings in recent weeks is Jake Bloss, the headline of the players heading to Toronto in the deal. He’s been awesome, a spectacularly fast riser who was a third round draft pick only last year before tearing through the minors. He was a breakout small-college player who transferred to Georgetown in his senior year and impressed against his toughest competition yet, so he’s been moving up levels and surprising people for three years now. A winter in the Houston pitching lab seems to have sharpened his command, and as you might expect, he has the team’s signature rising fastball cooking in 2024.

This isn’t some mirage; he’s throwing multiple plus pitches and might have pretty good command, too. In the minors, he struck out 27% of batters and allowed very little hard contact en route to a sub-2.00 ERA and solid 3.20 FIP. He shredded minor league hitters so comprehensively that I completely understand why Houston brought him up to the majors to see if the magic could continue, but his first three big league starts have been rough. More specifically, his third major league start was rough: The A’s launched four homers off of him in only four innings. I’m a big fan of the potential here, but I’d ideally give him a little bit more time in the minors to develop, and I think the Astros reached that conclusion as well, hence the trade.

This would’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a fast-rising pitching prospect for a mid-rotation rental. But then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in significantly more. We had Bloss as their no. 2 prospect; Joey Loperfido was no. 3 until he graduated from prospect status earlier this season. He’s a big versatile outfielder with true-outcome fever; he has 30-homer power, takes walks, and strikes out a bunch. Our prospect team put a 45 FV grade on him as a versatile bench player with the ability to field five positions (the outfield plus first and second), with an outside chance of hitting enough to become an everyday player.

But wait, there’s still more. The last player in the deal is Will Wagner, Billy Wagner’s son and an upper-minors infielder with a contact-over-power approach. You can probably picture this general archetype; when it works out as well as possible, it’s Brendan Donovan. When it doesn’t, it’s any number of utility infielders that your team uses to patch holes in the roster. Wagner is hitting .307/.424/.429 with more strikeouts than walks in Triple-A this year, but I think that line overstates his likely major league impact. Pitchers are going to assail him with strikes until he starts to make them pay for it, and as you might have realized from how similar his OBP and slug are, that’s been a struggle for him.

Only… why did the Astros need to add a sweetener? This is a huge win for the Blue Jays, in my opinion. The Astros are wizards when it comes to getting the most out of mid-round draft picks. Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner are all big success stories, unheralded picks who have far exceeded their expectations. But after doing all that hard work, the team turned around and flipped them for a mid-rotation rental.

I understand why the Astros need Kikuchi. But based on returns at the past few trade deadlines, Bloss alone was right around what I’d expect the Jays to get for dealing him. Maybe a Wagner-type player or two if the Astros were particularly keen to get the deal done. Loperfido, too? That’s a lot of good young players for 2-3 months of a solid-but-not-overwhelming pitcher.

I think it’s worth bumping expectations of Kikuchi up slightly given this context. When a team wants someone this badly, it surely has a reason. But I also think the Astros front office is a strange mishmash of old and new, and that they’re working at cross purposes. The part of the org that sagely selects college pitchers with interesting peripherals and then helps them unlock new heights in their game probably isn’t the same part that ships out a mountain of top prospects for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starter. I understand the Astros’ motivation in the deal, and yet I still think they gave up too much.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818318233859994103

Its Loperfido time!