Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

[trellaine201]

Unfortunately we really don’t have any game changers for trade this deadline . We have to lightning in a bottle in any exchange IMO

 

[MS]

What catchers are out there on the market? Assuming they are 100% moving on from Jano. Can they roll with Kirk and some backup if they improve the offence enough?

The FA market sucks outside of Jansen if you want someone under the age of 35.

The other thing is that literally every FA catcher hits right, so you won't find a platoon hitting option there.

Someone like Carson Kelly for cheap is probably what we'd be looking at if Jansen leaves.

 

[trellaine201]

Why haven’t the Jays signed him? It doesn’t seem they are interested from what I understand?

 

[canucksfan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815494506373849233

 

[canucksfan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815494506373849233

Another one

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815534909701931134

 

[Canada4Gold]

Gives us 580k overslot that we can give Yesavage, Messina and Terrell combined. I don't really see Messina taking up that much over and not sure they can get both him and Terrell for that much so I guess Yesavage is coming in slightly above slot?

 

[dredeye]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815494506373849233

Looks like they are gonna give Yesavage everything left over above the slot value if I’m gonna predict anything lol

 

[metafour]

Gives us 580k overslot that we can give Yesavage, Messina and Terrell combined. I don't really see Messina taking up that much over and not sure they can get both him and Terrell for that much so I guess Yesavage is coming in slightly above slot?

Messina is a Top 250 ranked prospect and will take up pretty much everything they have left most likely. I expect him to sign for $700K+.

Terrell was a courtesy pick. They don't have the money to sign him. If they did they wouldn't have waited until the 19th round to draft him.

Looks like they are gonna give Yesavage everything left over above the slot value if I’m gonna predict anything lol

The rest of the saved money goes to Messina. HS RHP ranked in the Top 250 with an SEC commitment isn't going to be cheap.

Atlanta signed a similarly ranked HS RHP for ~$800-850K in the 5th round. I haven't looked at the numbers closely, but if Yesavage signs for slot then they have like $700-750K to pay Messina.

 

[al secord]

It's not really. But not because of the gap between the high-powered teams and others. It's more because drafting in baseball is a massive crapshoot and even drafting at the top is not the guarantee you get a marquee, franchise altering player that it is in other sports. It's still easier to rack up good prospects drafting at the top of the board vs further down, but even elite prospects in an MLB draft are far less of a sure thing than they are in hockey, basketball, or football.

Cheers.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

drafting in baseball is a massive crapshoot and even drafting at the top is not the guarantee you get a marquee, franchise altering player that it is in other sports. I

Past NBA Draft Results | Tankathon

View historical NBA Draft results going back to the 2004 NBA Draft.

www.tankathon.com

feels like drafting in basketball is a crapshoot too.

 

[phillipmike]

Got to trade Jansen. Have been talking extension for 2-3 years now and nothing. Take what you can get and if he hits the market, take another run at him, if not, controllable talent is worth more than keeping him and trying to re-sign him.

No one is off the table, this is gearing up to be a sellers market.

Only the Jays, Angels, A's and White Sox are 6+ GB of a WC. Rangers are 7.5 GB of the WC but are 4.0 GBs of the weak AL West. In the NL, everyone is 4 GB of the WC except for Colorado and Miami. You could legit have 10-15+ teams buying at some level and only 6 for sure sellers.

 

[phillipmike]

Bold predictions for MLB's second half: Mets make blockbuster trade, regular season ends with tiebreaker, more

The second half gets underway Friday and almost immediately heads into the trade deadline

www.cbssports.com

2. The Blue Jays will trade a cornerstone player​

It feels like it's time. The first half went about as poorly as possible for the Blue Jays, who are 44-52 overall and 9.5 games out of a wild-card spot with six teams ahead of them. FanGraphs puts Toronto's postseason odds at 1.8% and that feels high. SportsLine puts them at a more humbling 1.0%. Things are dire north of the border.

The question is not will the Blue Jays sell at the deadline. Of course they will. Rentals Yusei Kikuchi and Danny Jansen are as good as gone in a trade market starved for pitching and light on catchers. It wouldn't be a bad idea to listen to offers for Chris Bassitt and Chad Green even though they're signed through 2025. What about Kevin Gausman? Never hurts to take a call, right?

The Blue Jays are going to sell. The question is to what extent? To put it another way, would they actually trade a homegrown cornerstone player like Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? This bold prediction says yes, the Blue Jays will send shockwaves through Toronto and the trade market by trading one of their foundational pieces.

We'll say Guerrero stays and Bichette goes. Specifically, he'll get traded to the Giants for erstwhile top prospect Marco Luciano and lefty Carson Whisenhunt, among others. San Francisco gets a needed shortstop and the big name it craves, and the Blue Jays shake things up and improve their young talent base. Bichette's days in Toronto are numbered, we boldly predict.

Bichette for 2 top 100, MLB ready prospects in Marco Luciano and Carson Whisenhunt? Yeah, i am taking that an run.

 

[phillipmike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815743789832495516

 

[mjd1001]

I am reading this thread almost everyday, but I feel like I'm doing it out of obligation, not because I really want to.

This current Blue Jays team has sucked the life out of my love for not only them but for MLB. Yeah, my interest in Baseball has been going down, becoming less and less for about a decade now. I can't get into the sport even as close to as much as I did before. But hope for this team starting a couple years ago, that is what kept me clinging to any desire I had to watch Baseball at all.

I'm trying to keep an interest, I really am, but its just about gone.

 

[Bjindaho]

I am reading this thread almost everyday, but I feel like I'm doing it out of obligation, not because I really want to.

This current Blue Jays team has sucked the life out of my love for not only them but for MLB. Yeah, my interest in Baseball has been going down, becoming less and less for about a decade now. I can't get into the sport even as close to as much as I did before. But hope for this team starting a couple years ago, that is what kept me clinging to any desire I had to watch Baseball at all.

I'm trying to keep an interest, I really am, but its just about gone.

Honestly, I think there are a lot of people that feel the same way.

I've watched terrible versions of the Jays, but this feels closer to a Gord Ash run organization than anything we've had for years. The problem isn't that the 2024 Jays stink; it is that they stink while spending a ton of money, signing the wrong people and not bothering to lock up Bo and Vladdy.

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly, I think there are a lot of people that feel the same way.

I've watched terrible versions of the Jays, but this feels closer to a Gord Ash run organization than anything we've had for years. The problem isn't that the 2024 Jays stink; it is that they stink while spending a ton of money, signing the wrong people and not bothering to lock up Bo and Vladdy.

It kind of feels like we're heading the same direction with Bo/Vlad as we did back then with Green/Delgado. Assume they go that direction (extend one, trade the other) the key will be to not trade one of them for someone who both worse and older. That Green deal set the Jays back YEARS.

There's a bit of a 2013 feeling to this one too, though: they spent a lot of money and plenty of prospects to try to contend now, and they're vastly underperforming where they should be. The core of that team was signed, but they were also well into their 30s, so it was a similarly win-now situation. I'm not convinced they have a couple Josh Donaldson/Russell Martin type moves in them to turn things around, though.

 

[dredeye]

I am reading this thread almost everyday, but I feel like I'm doing it out of obligation, not because I really want to.

This current Blue Jays team has sucked the life out of my love for not only them but for MLB. Yeah, my interest in Baseball has been going down, becoming less and less for about a decade now. I can't get into the sport even as close to as much as I did before. But hope for this team starting a couple years ago, that is what kept me clinging to any desire I had to watch Baseball at all.

I'm trying to keep an interest, I really am, but its just about gone.

Your interest should no longer be in this current team but in the deadline itself and then in the off season we see what if there’s a new front office and what they do. If it’s Shapiro/Atkins after this year then give up and many of us will

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815743789832495516

I don’t really have a problem with them trading Green and with the season he’s having and extra year he should be able to bring a strong return back. He’s been great but he’s injured so often I’m fine spending that 10 million elsewhere next year


I just wanted to add that I was just reading MLBTR and they were talking about the Mets making small additions at the deadline because they are trying to re stock their farm system and don't want to move any of their better prospects. They followed that up with the only piece they could be looking at is Green from us and that because he has a two year deal worth 21 million that we might be willing to move him for the sake of dumping his salary so we can get under the tax. Now I think that's certainly something they'd like to do but unless it's Springer we aren't just giving away guys under contract. Green should bring back a good return and will not be a salary dump.

 

[saska sault]

I echo what the last few posts have said. Love baseball, love watching games, last year was not the most enjoyable team fo watch... this year's team is far worse. They got so far behind in the standings that nothing feels important and they lack any excitement besides great fielding from Varsho and Co... not a recipe for fan engagement. New training facility, stadium renovations and 250 million payroll and not one guy locked up long term besides a few aging pitchers and Berrios. It will be incredible to see how they can try to regain fan support while doing everything possible to wreck it at the same time.

 

[Bjindaho]

I echo what the last few posts have said. Love baseball, love watching games, last year was not the most enjoyable team fo watch... this year's team is far worse. They got so far behind in the standings that nothing feels important and they lack any excitement besides great fielding from Varsho and Co... not a recipe for fan engagement. New training facility, stadium renovations and 250 million payroll and not one guy locked up long term besides a few aging pitchers and Berrios. It will be incredible to see how they can try to regain fan support while doing everything possible to wreck it at the same time.

They need to pick a direction and next year IS NOT A DIRECTION.

Either they sell and they make everyone available (with the caveat that they either sign Vladdy and Bo or make them truly available) or they retool (moving out all of the rentals plus some extra pieces with value like Green but this ONLY works if Vladdy and Bo are locked up).

There is no middle ground. You do not take this team team into next year with your big 2 headed to free agency.

 

[dredeye]

They need to pick a direction and next year IS NOT A DIRECTION.

Either they sell and they make everyone available (with the caveat that they either sign Vladdy and Bo or make them truly available) or they retool (moving out all of the rentals plus some extra pieces with value like Green but this ONLY works if Vladdy and Bo are locked up).

There is no middle ground. You do not take this team team into next year with your big 2 headed to free agency.

I think what we’ll see if Bo isn’t just traded at the deadline is a whole new direction from the new management group. I don’t see them being able to compete next year although they’d still have the starting pitching to be good. But this is how I see it play out.

If Bo isn’t signed in the off season he’s moved. I think they plan to move off of Bo and keep Vlad. I think they play out the year with whatever new additions we have and asses at the deadline. We’ll have Bassitt and Gausman on expiring deals who’ll be great trade assets. If Vlad isn’t signed he’ll be moved. They can’t risk him and Bo walking for nothing. That’s an absolute worst case scenario. They really only have next year to try again and then we’ll have lost most of our starting pitching.

IMO next year is a development year where the likes of Schneider, Horwitz and company get full playing time to develop and see what we have. Either way this off season is going to be a big one for the future if this team.

 

[saska sault]

They need to pick a direction and next year IS NOT A DIRECTION.

Either they sell and they make everyone available (with the caveat that they either sign Vladdy and Bo or make them truly available) or they retool (moving out all of the rentals plus some extra pieces with value like Green but this ONLY works if Vladdy and Bo are locked up).

There is no middle ground. You do not take this team team into next year with your big 2 headed to free agency.

Agreed. I'm on the keep Vlad and trade Bo train if he wants out. Ideally you sign both long term but that doesn't seem a likely solution anymore. Trade guys with term on aging deals for whatever you can get and use that salary cap space going forward on guys who will be here. No more KKs and Turners as main stays in the line up.

 

[The Nemesis]

Past NBA Draft Results | Tankathon

View historical NBA Draft results going back to the 2004 NBA Draft.

www.tankathon.com

feels like drafting in basketball is a crapshoot too.

Basketball's a crapshoot as it falls off. Generally speaking if you draft top 5 there's a reasonable chance you get at least a very good player. Top 10 you probably get someone who is at least in an NBA rotation for a decent chunk of time. The thing with basketball is that by the time you're into the 20s you're pretty much hoping to find someone who might have one marketable skill to stick around on and be an acceptable bench option and once you hit the end of the 1st round it's a victory to find someone who even plays any NBA minutes at all.

But in the MLB draft even at the top of the table it's no sure thing you get someone with any MLB future. Some of that is pitchers and the fantastic rate at which they can injure themselves and derail their careers. If it takes a pitcher 3 or 4 years in the minors to ascend to being MLB ready that's 3 or 4 years in which their arm explodes into confetti, they lose a year, and return from the injury having transformed from a high-90s guy with a wipeout slider into a mid-90s guy with a glorified cutter.

This is going to be a bit of an apples and oranges comparison because I can't find a nice and neat study that replicates methodology across the different sports, but here we go:

There was a research piece from 2021 that suggested that about 27% of lottery picks in the NBA draft make it to an all-star team at some point in their career. And I think somewhere I saw that the bust rate in the 1st round of the NBA draft is somewhere around 30% and only about 8% never even suit up for an NBA game at all.

Comparatively there's a Fangraphs community research piece that suggests the chances of getting a "superior player" (which they quantified as putting up greater than 2.5 bWAR per 500ABs or 25 games pitched) is only about 30% if you pick in the top 5 and while there's no "lottery" range in the MLB draft since there's no lottery, if you pick in the top half of the round that percentage is probably somewhere in the low 20s. Meanwhile your chances of finding a bust (<1.5 bWAR per 500AB/25GPitched) is about 60% if you draft top 5 and probably around 65-66% for the whole top 15. And even more starkly, about 33% of MLB first rounders never even make the major leagues.

Obviously those "never played a game" stats are skewed by the fact that there's no developmental system track for NBA players the way there is for NBA ones. If you get drafted into MLB it's reasonable that you don't see a major league field before your 23rd or 24th birthday. If you get drafted into the NBA and you haven't touched an NBA floor by the time you're 24 your career is probably dead in the water. But it's still telling that you are like twice as likely to get some manner of "bust" player in the first round of the MLB draft as you are in the NBA.

Every draft in every sport is a crapshoot to some degree. But baseball is the most random with the most variance with the highest likelihood of total failure and the longest average time between selection and actually seeing the results of those picks.

 

[trellaine201]

FUK the Dodgers. Hope they lose in their first round! Ok I am jealous. But I still hope they LOSE!

 

[dredeye]

FUK the Dodgers. Hope they lose in their first round! Ok I am jealous. But I still hope they LOSE!

That differed money makes me hope Ohtani never gets a taste of a WS game let alone a title. But they’ll win multiple times instead

 

[trellaine201]

Wow Mike Trout returned and only lasted two innings! Knee trouble. Poor guy has been decimated with injuries and poor teams.