Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[aingefan]

McAdoo's ability to rotate and generate power despite almost no movement in his lower half other than a subtle toe tap is ridiculously impressive. I would like to see him add a slight leg kick so he's not overly stiff in his swing like Varsho, but until it stops working there's no real necessity to change things right now.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1823888123597889929

https://x.com/i/web/status/1823562814281134269

I’m really interested with this guy, similarly curious with Shreck. His tools are louder than most of the trade acquisitions.
Baseball prospects come in all kinds of fruit, so you’ve gotta be careful comparing them. But seems that by targeting recent draftees who were college seniors in trades , the Jays are trying to max out guys primes at low salary.
Risky strategy based on upside, but if you get 4-5 good to great years from guys who start as seniors, they’re not hitting FA for the first time til 32-33. Horwitz, Wagner and a bunch of others fit this profile. The optics won’t be favourable, like prospect and system ranking because of age, but if the team churns out a couple waves of ‘em it’ll be fun to watch.
Hoping a bunch hit, won’t but help the teams positioning and roster flexibility.

 

[aingefan]

In two innings he SO 6 and gave up one run.

Bloss pitched well in his start. I guess they are building him up again?

Nice.
The 19yo lhp who followed him has had an impressive minor league career so far and hasn’t seemed too fazed by A ball hitters. Torres might be a kid to watch.

Any word on when/if 24 pitching draftees might toe the pro rubber? Yesavage, Stephen, Wentworth?

I presume the prep kids will hang around the complex.

 

[aingefan]

Lastly, from A+:
Adrian Pinto had another game. 3-3, 2b, 2sb.
In his career, he’s got 512ab’s. His career line is pretty exciting: 880 ops, with 73 sb’s.
20yo lhp Kendry Rojas spun a 7ip beauty.
And Jace Bohrofen is having a nice second half.

 

[Discoverer]

Lastly, from A+:
Adrian Pinto had another game. 3-3, 2b, 2sb.
In his career, he’s got 512ab’s. His career line is pretty exciting: 880 ops, with 73 sb’s.
20yo lhp Kendry Rojas spun a 7ip beauty.
And Jace Bohrofen is having a nice second half.

Between the deadline trades, guys coming back from injuries, and a bunch of guys turning things around after slow starts, it's nice to see the strong performances starting to pile up. Other than the AAA bats (most of which ended up being needed in the majors) there wasn't a lot of excitement on the farm in the first half of the season.

 

[aingefan]

Between the deadline trades, guys coming back from injuries, and a bunch of guys turning things around after slow starts, it's nice to see the strong performances starting to pile up. Other than the AAA bats (most of which ended up being needed in the majors) there wasn't a lot of excitement on the farm in the first half of the season.

True, a handful of modest success stories buried beneath lots of dserious injuries, suspensions and underperformance.
Hopefully there’s more positive trends ahead, if some of the high pedigree kids turn it on, I wonder where the system would rank? Beltre, Bonilla, Toman are just a few that have fallen off the map. Upside arms that haven’t performed recently like Carter and Dallas.
Probably normal baseball attrition, but, there’s actually plenty of talent in system to feel good/not great and so much went wrong this year that you can’t help but envision better luck soon.

 

[dredeye]

Terrible idea

 

[canucksfan]

Nice.
The 19yo lhp who followed him has had an impressive minor league career so far and hasn’t seemed too fazed by A ball hitters. Torres might be a kid to watch.

Any word on when/if 24 pitching draftees might toe the pro rubber? Yesavage, Stephen, Wentworth?

I presume the prep kids will hang around the complex.

I read where those guys won’t play this year. Maybe a few inning at most.

Rojas’ numbers

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824802602783031644

 

[canucksfan]

Between the deadline trades, guys coming back from injuries, and a bunch of guys turning things around after slow starts, it's nice to see the strong performances starting to pile up. Other than the AAA bats (most of which ended up being needed in the majors) there wasn't a lot of excitement on the farm in the first half of the season.

I usually stat watch the Jays' minor league teams but after April I stopped. Just really paid attention to Buffalo.

Hopefully, the injured guys next year come back and do well. I haven't heard if Macko is coming back this year yet. They might just shut him down.

 

[Discoverer]

I usually stat watch the Jays' minor league teams but after April I stopped. Just really paid attention to Buffalo.

Hopefully, the injured guys next year come back and do well. I haven't heard if Macko is coming back this year yet. They might just shut him down.

I've found all of the full season levels interesting follows in the second half, particularly since deadline when they added all the new guys, the recent draftees made their debuts, and they moved a few guys up. Each level has at least 3-4 position players who are exciting to track each day.

 

[canucksfan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824796258088718501

Interesting. Maybe this is why Teo had a poor year last year. Not sure where Rogers Centre is.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824857394142474268

 

[trellaine201]

Nick Keys with his first pro HR last night.

Charles McAdoo heating up: 3-6, HR, SB, 2bb his last 8 pa’s.

Is he related in anyway to Bob Macadoo

 

[jetsforever]

Wonder if Votto will make an appearance vs the Reds

 

[Discoverer]

Wonder if Votto will make an appearance vs the Reds

There's room to get him on the 40-man without having to DFA anyone by moving Manoah to the 60-day IL. I really hope they add him. Send Schneider down and let him work things out in Buffalo.

 

[tmlfan98]

There's room to get him on the 40-man without having to DFA anyone by moving Manoah to the 60-day IL. I really hope they add him. Send Schneider down and let him work things out in Buffalo.

I agree, as long as the Jays would still be under the CBT threshold. Also Berroa and probably Barger too deserve to get sent down before Schneider.

 

[canucksfan]

If he has any interest they should think about hiring Votto as a hitting coach in the minors or even the hitting coordinator of the farm system.

 

[Discoverer]

I agree, as long as the Jays would still be under the CBT threshold. Also Berroa and probably Barger too deserve to get sent down before Schneider.

Barger's made some really nice progress since his last promotion. I'd like to see him get plenty of playing time. Berroa... sure. He doesn't play much anyway.

Schneider's just been a train wreck for almost three months now and has shown no signs of figuring it out. It's not even just about who deserves it, it's about needing him to get it together, and it hasn't been happening in the majors.

 

[tmlfan98]

Barger's made some really nice progress since his last promotion. I'd like to see him get plenty of playing time. Berroa... sure. He doesn't play much anyway.

Schneider's just been a train wreck for almost three months now and has shown no signs of figuring it out. It's not even just about who deserves it, it's about needing him to get it together, and it hasn't been happening in the majors.

Huh? Barger has a wRC+ of -23 vs RHP in August. He literally had 3 great games at the end of July that makes the entire sample of his latest callup look way better than it actually is. Whatever progress you think he made seems to have reverted back to his major league baseline of struggling bat without a defensive position other than RF which is Springer's everyday spot.

In the case of Schneider, I think he still needs to be fed reps in a lost season. This is a guy who has always projected well even before his first callup, and projects very well going forward. Sportsnet shills like Arden Zwelling love to talk abut ZiPS 2025 projections these days especially when trying to carry water for their favourite sub-100 wRC+ bats like Kirk, Springer and Varsho, but absolutely refuse to bring up what ZiPS 2025 says about Davis Schneider when discussing the cold streak he's been on.

I shouldn't be surprised, none of the idiots around the team wanted to give him proper credit last year either, yet are falling over themselves to anoint Billy Wagner's son after he starts his career on an identical hot streak to Schneider. Too bad for Davis not having a hall of fame dad I guess. At the very least, Schneider should be a weak side platoon bat on the 2025 team.

 

[Discoverer]

Huh? Barger has a wRC+ of -23 vs RHP in August. He literally had 3 great games at the end of July that makes the entire sample of his latest callup look way better than it actually is. Whatever progress you think he made seems to have reverted back to his major league baseline of struggling bat without a defensive position other than RF which is Springer's everyday spot.

In the case of Schneider, I think he still needs to be fed reps in a lost season. This is a guy who has always projected well even before his first callup, and projects very well going forward. Sportsnet shills like Arden Zwelling love to talk abut ZiPS 2025 projections these days especially when trying to carry water for their favourite sub-100 wRC+ bats like Kirk, Springer and Varsho, but absolutely refuse to bring up what ZiPS 2025 says about Davis Schneider when discussing the cold streak he's been on.

I shouldn't be surprised, none of the idiots around the team wanted to give him proper credit last year either, yet are falling over themselves to anoint Billy Wagner's son after he starts his career on an identical hot streak to Schneider. Too bad for Davis not having a hall of fame dad I guess. At the very least, Schneider should be a weak side platoon bat on the 2025 team.

Yes, if you want to break it down into little chunks like that, then Barger struggled for almost 20 PA after looking good when he got called back up. I'm ok with that from a young player trying to find his footing after the first hot stretch of his career. Still way too many Ks, but his hitting the ball hard in the air. He's shown something to build on.

Schneider has a 43 wRC+ in 183 PA since the start of June. That's a long, concerning cold streak, and it's just been getting worse. I have confidence that he'll turn it around, but he's shown no signs of progress in 2.5 months.

I don't know what you're talking about with Wagner because the hype around him has been nothing compared to Schneider's last year.

 

[tmlfan98]

Yes, if you want to break it down into little chunks like that, then Barger struggled for almost 20 PA after looking good when he got called back up. I'm ok with that from a young player trying to find his footing after the first hot stretch of his career. Still way too many Ks, but his hitting the ball hard in the air. He's shown something to build on.

Schneider has a 43 wRC+ in 183 PA since the start of June. That's a long, concerning cold streak, and it's just been getting worse. I have confidence that he'll turn it around, but he's shown no signs of progress in 2.5 months.

I don't know what you're talking about with Wagner because the hype around him has been nothing compared to Schneider's last year.

So his August sample is too small to evaluate, but if you add those 3 games that made him look good at the end of July, now we can evaluate the sample like you were doing when you initially brought it up?

I don't care about Schneider's cold streak. It's a lost season and he still projects well moving forward. I'd rather let him work it out at the major league level with reps than continue to spoonfeed a lefty bat with a career 57 wRC+ vs RHP so far.

Also, I'm not buying this 183 PA cold streak sample from Schneider just like I wasn't buying Cavan Biggio's hot streak sample of 126 wRC+ vs RHP in 225 PA, from mid-May 2023 until the end of last season that caused many Jays fans to declare "he's back and he just had a bad April." Jays fans like you need to stop buying too much into short samples and calling them large samples.

 

[metafour]

Jays fans like you need to stop buying too much into short samples and calling them large samples.

Aren't you guilty of this exact same thing?

Davis Schneider in 2023:

Expected wOBA: .355
Actual wOBA: .424

HR/FB%: 21.1%

There are only 13 hitters in baseball this season with a HR/FB% over 20%. All of them except for one (Josh Naylor) are EV darlings who hit the ball MUCH harder than Schneider could ever even dream of.

His 2023 fluke streak was marred by drastically over-exceeding his underlying metrics (literally a 70-point bump on his wOBA vs. expectation) and a comically inflated HR/FB%. There is nothing in his profile to suggest that he is anywhere near a 20%+ HR/FB% hitter.

This season the underlying batted ball and plate-discipline data is all more or less in line with last season, and he is hitting the ball with the same EV. His plate-discipline metrics are actually BETTER as he is making more contact. The difference is that everything is normalizing back down to what it should actually look like, and what you see is a ~100 wRC+ type hitter, which was basically his realistic best case scenario anyway as a non-elite prospect. This season you are seeing his xwOBA and wOBA in line with each other:

Expected wOBA: .298
Actual wOBA: .289

HR/FB%: 9.3% (basically in line with the league average, which is slightly under 10%)

He strikes out way too much and has below-average contact ability. He is entirely dependent on launch-angle and barrel% because his EV's are average to slightly below average. The fact that he hits so many flyballs means that he will always be a low-BA hitter. All of these characteristics were there is 2023 as well.

 

[tmlfan98]

Aren't you guilty of this exact same thing?

Davis Schneider in 2023:

Expected wOBA: .355
Actual wOBA: .424

HR/FB%: 21.1%

There are only 13 hitters in baseball this season with a HR/FB% over 20%. All of them except for one (Josh Naylor) are EV darlings who hit the ball MUCH harder than Schneider could ever even dream of.

His 2023 fluke streak was marred by drastically over-exceeding his underlying metrics (literally a 70-point bump on his wOBA vs. expectation) and a comically inflated HR/FB%. There is nothing in his profile to suggest that he is anywhere near a 20%+ HR/FB% hitter.

This season the underlying batted ball and plate-discipline data is all more or less in line with last season, and he is hitting the ball with the same EV. His plate-discipline metrics are actually BETTER as he is making more contact. The difference is that everything is normalizing back down to what it should actually look like, and what you see is a ~100 wRC+ type hitter, which was basically his realistic best case scenario anyway as a non-elite prospect. This season you are seeing his xwOBA and wOBA in line with each other:

Expected wOBA: .298
Actual wOBA: .289

HR/FB%: 9.3% (basically in line with the league average, which is slightly under 10%)

He strikes out way too much and has below-average contact ability. He is entirely dependent on launch-angle and barrel% because his EV's are average to slightly below average. The fact that he hits so many flyballs means that he will always be a low-BA hitter. All of these characteristics were there is 2023 as well.

Davis Schneider 2023 xwOBA was .355 (3rd on the 2023 Jays behind only Bo and Vlad, and 53rd in baseball among players with at least as many PA as him last season)
Davis Schneider 2024 xwOBA is .298
Addison Barger 2024 xwOBA is .260

Also what you are describing in the bolded part of your post seems like at the very least, a weak side platoon bat considering he is also a good defender at 2B.

 

[Discoverer]

So his August sample is too small to evaluate, but if you add those 3 games that made him look good at the end of July, now we can evaluate the sample like you were doing when you initially brought it up?

I don't care about Schneider's cold streak. It's a lost season and he still projects well moving forward. I'd rather let him work it out at the major league level with reps than continue to spoonfeed a lefty bat with a career 57 wRC+ vs RHP so far.

Also, I'm not buying this 183 PA cold streak sample from Schneider just like I wasn't buying Cavan Biggio's hot streak sample of 126 wRC+ vs RHP in 225 PA, from mid-May 2023 until the end of last season that caused many Jays fans to declare "he's back and he just had a bad April." Jays fans like you need to stop buying too much into short samples and calling them large samples.

I'm not adding three games to the sample, I'm looking at the whole of what Barger has provided since he last got called up. It's still a small sample, and he has obvious flaws, but he's been hitting the ball with enough authority that he has a 118 wRC+ since being promoted. He's a 24 year old with a handful of short stints in the majors and the most recent one has shown progress.

I don't believe by any means that Schneider is who he's been over his last 183 PA, but it gives me plenty of concern that he's nowhere near the player he was in his previous 322 PA. His overall production this year has been bad, he's been trending down, and he's shown zero signs of turning it around. If I had any confidence in the Jays coaches' ability to figure it out, I might feel different, but right now I think he's better off facing lesser competition for a bit.

 

[tmlfan98]

I'm not adding three games to the sample, I'm looking at the whole of what Barger has provided since he last got called up. It's still a small sample, and he has obvious flaws, but he's been hitting the ball with enough authority that he has a 118 wRC+ since being promoted. He's a 24 year old with a handful of short stints in the majors and the most recent one has shown progress.

Let me try and break down this sample more clearly for you:

Whole sample since last callup: 142 wRC+ vs RHP in 32 PA (I decided to exclude his 59 wRC+ in 13 PA vs LHP because he is a lefty bat)

July 25-July 31: 272 wRC+ in 14 PA vs RHP (only 3 games within this mini sample where he recorded a single game wRC+ of 100 or more)

August 1-present: 41 wRC+ in 18 PA vs RHP

So to recap, since August 1st Barger has reverted back to dog poop, the August mini sample is already larger than the end-of-July mini sample, and the end-of-July mini sample itself only contained 3 single game performances clearing 100 wRC+.

Whether you want to admit it or not, out of the 45 PA Barger has gotten so far since his latest callup, his only good stretch within was the 14 PA vs RHP in the last week of July (his games on the 28th, 30th and 31st to be exact).

 

[Gabriel426]

I just finished the book about Doc by Todd Zolecki. It was a really good read and there are stuff that I either forgot or didn’t know. Highly recommended

 

[phillipmike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1825188233447145910

Need September Bo to finish the season strong so we can get a good return.