Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending)

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Cloned

Begging for Bega
Aug 25, 2003
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Ya, it definitely runs through the organization now. Likely why Mattingly is still with the team. Up until 2022, the organization liked power bats. I remember them trotting out Derek Fisher. Low IQ player, high K% but a lot of power potential. In the 21/22 seasons, the Jays had great power, and even in 2020.

Did the M's series change them or was it something else?
It’s Atkins’ MO. Reactionary to a fault and overcompensating for weaknesses. The word balance means nothing to him.
 

canucksfan

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Mar 16, 2002
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I don't think this really correlates as much as you think it does.

Their first round pick last year: Arjun Nimmala - 60+ grade power, major contact concerns. Their next highest drafted hitter (Jace Bohrofen) had the same profile.

Their top hitting prospects:

Martinez: Power bat, contact concerns
Nimmala: Power bat, contact concerns
Leo Jimenez: Contact driven
Addison Barger: Power bat, contact concerns
Alan Roden: Contact driven
Enmanuel Bonilla: Power over contact profile

Their most recent significant trade was moving a no-power contact oriented catcher (Moreno) for a CF who can hit for power but struggles to make consistent contact (Varsho).

They ARE trying to develop and bring in power hitters. The problem is that they literally haven't been able to develop ANY type of hitter successfully. Their contact oriented guys haven't unlocked power (which is what a team hopes to develop when they draft one) and their power-oriented guys haven't progressed as hitters.

If they were tailoring to "contact", then they wouldn't have used their 1st round pick last year on arguably the most power-projected hitter in the 1st round. Point blank.
Barger and Martinez were picked/signed earlier. Definitely agree with Nimmala and the others. It could just be a coincidence at the drafting level but they seem to take more contact hitters recently than guys with power. Furthermore, at the MLB level they have gone with more contact hitters over power hitters. Some exceptions for sure such as Belt last year.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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[@BrooksGate] How much money each MLB team made last year, and how much of that is going towards their payroll this year​


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dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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The rankings mean very little at that point. If you want context: 9 of the players selected in the 4th round weren't even on MLB.com's Top 250, and another 6 of the players selected were ranked 100+ spots lower than their actual draft slot.

But also, they need to make up money for Johnny King. His pick has a $767K slot, but I'd bet he signs for something like $1.5 million similar to Maroudis last year. Yesavage might get slightly over slot, but I doubt its significant.

They may also be lining up a HS player for the 11th round.
They can’t use the bonus pool outside of the 10th round can they? I’m assuming they’ve punted some picks a bit but pretty underwhelmed by this draft. I’ve seen some decent reports on some of the guys but I’m not blown away. Maybe the fact that I’m not enthused this year will be a good thing lol
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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I would be impressed if I had even the slightest belief that any of those numbers were accurate, particularly for the Jays who massively underreport TV earnings.
Considering they paid 25 million for the dome and own all the tv rights those profit numbers aren’t believable to me either. I guess the difference in dollar hurts them quite a bit though
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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They can’t use the bonus pool outside of the 10th round can they? I’m assuming they’ve punted some picks a bit but pretty underwhelmed by this draft. I’ve seen some decent reports on some of the guys but I’m not blown away. Maybe the fact that I’m not enthused this year will be a good thing lol

You can sign anyone 11th to 20th round for 150k and it doesn't count. Any amount above that comes out of the pool
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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They can’t use the bonus pool outside of the 10th round can they? I’m assuming they’ve punted some picks a bit but pretty underwhelmed by this draft. I’ve seen some decent reports on some of the guys but I’m not blown away. Maybe the fact that I’m not enthused this year will be a good thing lol

Yes, they can use any saved money on picks outside the Top 10 rounds as well. And it sounds like that is exactly what is happening. They took HS pitchers in the 11th and 12th rounds. 12th round pick Carson Messina is reportedly signing, he ranks #222 on MLB.com's list - that is a big one (he already hits 97 with a potentially plus breaking ball, albeit he needs a lot of work on command and mechanics).
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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You can sign anyone 11th to 20th round for 150k and it doesn't count. Any amount above that comes out of the pool
Oh interesting I didn't know that. Thanks for the info

Yes, they can use any saved money on picks outside the Top 10 rounds as well. And it sounds like that is exactly what is happening. They took HS pitchers in the 11th and 12th rounds. 12th round pick Carson Messina is reportedly signing, he ranks #222 on MLB.com's list - that is a big one (he already hits 97 with a potentially plus breaking ball, albeit he needs a lot of work on command and mechanics).
If he's hitting 97 as a high schooler I'm sure they project 100 for him in the future. I'm sure he's one of the back end bullpen guys if control doesn't get where it needs to
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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Found this interesting. Jays might have a shot at signing him. Having read some things I kind of like the Jays draft.


It feels like Ben Nicholson-Smith is posting the eyes emoji to just point out that he was correct about the Jays' interest in Terrell (since they did in fact draft him). I don't think he's suggesting that they're signing him.

I can't imagine they have enough saved to sign him. If they did, they would have known that before the 19th round.
 
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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Toronto Blue Jays

East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage (1) was the No. 3 pitcher on my draft board, and many others, I think, based on my conversations all spring. He’s 91-96 with a four-seamer and has a wipeout splitter with huge bottom and even some run that can make it look like a power slider. He has a breaking ball as a third pitch but prefers the splitter to hitters on both sides of the plate. He has a super-short arm action that works for him, although I can’t think of a starter with a comparable delivery. He suffered a collapsed lung when receiving a pseudoscience-y treatment back in May, but that shouldn’t present any long-term issues. I see a very quick-to-the-majors starter but maybe a lower ceiling of a No. 3.

go-deeper
GO DEEPER
Get to know Blue Jays' first-round pick Trey Yesavage, the most polished starter in the class

Right-hander Khal Stephen (2) throws a ton of strikes, walking just 5 percent of batters this spring for Mississippi State, with a bunch of average-at-best pitches, 92-93 on the four-seamer with the slider a solid 50 and the changeup maybe a tick below. He comes from a high three-quarters slot that can make it hard to throw a traditional slider. He’s probably a back-end starter unless any of his pitches improve.

Florida prep left-hander Johnny King (3) won’t turn 18 until the end of July, and he’s got quite a bit of projection to his lanky 6-3 frame. He’s in the low 90s now with some funk in the delivery, with a big two-plane curveball that could end up an out-pitch for him. He rushes off the rubber and his arm can lag a bit behind his landing leg, although it’s all minor stuff that could be cleaned up in pro ball.

Third baseman Sean Keys (4) is the highest draft pick in the history of Bucknell, a power-hitter whose bat is ahead of his glove but who should stick at the hot corner. He hit very well on the Cape, which I know from personal experience is important in the Jays’ draft philosophy, even more so for a kid who didn’t face great pitching in the spring. The power is legit, and he’s got a chance to be an everyday guy.

Indiana outfielder Nick Mitchell (4C) doesn’t miss or chase, especially fastballs, with a lot of medium-quality contact but very little over-the-fence power. I do think he’ll hit the ball hard enough to keep his average up. He also hit well on the Cape. If he could play center, I’d say he was an everyday guy, but he’s a corner outfielder and might be a tweener.

Right-hander Jackson Wentworth (5) doesn’t have much fastball but he gets some bite on a mid-80s slider and had success with a straight change, with at least solid-average control this year. The Kansas State righty struck out 31.5 percent of batters he faced this year, although he struggled against a very advanced Virginia lineup in the Super Regionals. He’s a redshirt sophomore who’ll turn 22 next month. He missed 2022 after Tommy John surgery and had an 8.72 ERA in 2023 in limited time.

Aaron Parker (6) is a rather zaftig catcher, cast from the same mold as Alejandro Kirk, but he looks like he can hit, with quick hands that get the bat to the ball on time even after a very high — well, OK, not that high, he’s only 5-9 — leg kick. He has arm strength and can flash a plus pop time, although he rushes through his throws and ends up high too often. He does move well behind the plate for a bigger guy. Right-hander Austin Cates (7) transferred from JUCO to UNLV this year and had a solid year for the Runnin’ Rebels thanks to a plus changeup and a 3.9 percent walk rate. His fastball’s light, mostly 89-92, up to 95, and he’s probably a reliever as a result, but hitters did not care for his changeup one bit and that’s something to start with.

I don’t usually say much about senior signs, but outfielder Eddie Micheletti Jr. (8) is a Delaware product, from a high school a few miles from my house. He hit well on the Cape last summer as a rising senior and transferred from George Washington to Virginia Tech, where he hit .311/.464/.599 as a senior with a 15 percent strikeout rate. He’s got enough stick for the outfield but needs to work on his defense. Also, I know his high school coach and he’d never forgive me if I didn’t get him into the recap.

Right-hander Colby Holcombe (9) is 92-95, up to 98, with a plus slider, but he’s been awful at Mississippi State and in the New England Collegiate Baseball League because he can’t pitch with men on base. He allowed an OBP over .420 with men on base in the spring, and is doing it again for Newport this summer, much worse than he is from the windup. He posted a 9.05 ERA over two years for the Bulldogs, so I guess it can’t get worse?


Toronto Blue Jays

Getting Trey Yesavage, who many evaluators considered the third best collegiate arm in the class, at No. 20 counts as a win. The Blue Jays stuck with pitching for their other top-100 picks, netting righty Khal Stephens at No. 59 and lefty prepster Johnny King at No. 95. King is of particular note: he won't celebrate his 18th birthday until later in the month, and he throws from a low slot, as is the modern preference. (He does have some bad command indicators, including a creeping elbow and recoil on his follow-through, but there's time to smooth that stuff out.) Provided there's not some deeper issue with Yesavage, I think that pick alone gets them into B territory. Grade: B.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Hayden Gilliland, C, Tennessee Tech

Gilliland is a 5-foot-11, 175-pound catcher who hit over .300 in three of his four seasons at Tennessee Tech. This spring the lefthanded-hitting backstop slashed .325/.433/.569 with 13 home runs and 12 doubles while posting a career-low 9.4% strikeout rate and solid 15% walk rate. He has a fairly well-rounded offensive profile based on his batted ball data, which includes an 83% contact rate, 19% chase rate and solid but unspectacular top-end exit velocities.

Christian Mracna, RHP, Georgia

Mracna attended Belmont Abbey, Northwest Florida State JC and George Mason before he pitched as a starter and reliever for Georgia in 2024. A 6-foot-5, 220-pound righthander, Mracna posted a 5.32 ERA over 45.2 innings and 10 starts this spring with a 33.6% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. Despite his size Mracna throws from a lower release point, thanks in part to above-average extension down the mound, and sits in the 90-94 mph range with a fastball that touches 96 and plays up thanks to his release traits. He overwhelmingly pitches off the fastball, but will mix in a slurvy breaking ball in the upper 70s and an occasional mid-80s changeup.

Jacob Lojewski, SS/3B, Florida Gulf Coast
Peyton Powell, 3B, Texas
Jay Schueler, RHP, Southeastern (Fla.) University
Owen Gregg, 2B/SS, Appleby College HS (Ont.)
 
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