2024 Prospect Poll #6

[Zman5778]

I like a little back and forth with each other's opinions in these threads, like in a scouting meeting. I tend to value ceiling strongly, especially when it comes with a reasonable floor like Wahlberg. Closeness to the NHL isn't big on my rubric (though I think Wahlberg is closer than we realize - imo he could play games later this year if our new 4th line gets banged up).

I also value ceiling strongly. When I see two prospects whose ceilings are similar, my next criteria is floor. And I think that's where you and I differ a bit. I think RJ has shown that his long-term floor is a 6/7 Dman at the very absolute worst. Meanwhile.....while I like what I've seen out of Wahlberg.....I haven't seen enough to say that his floor is that of a no-doubt NHL player.

You mention that Wahlberg could play games later this year -- that's only if he's playing in Rochester. I still think that there is a very reasonable chance that we loan him back to Malmo this year.

 

[Puppa2Miller]

Im going with Johnson, I think he's ready to carve out a nice little NHL career as a #5 or #6 defensive d man. I feel like he's closer to that than Whalberg.

Lately I've been viewing and rating prospects higher for what have they done for me at the level they are playing. If a guy is in the AHL and scoring 20 or 30, I'm going to rate him higher than a guy still in the OHL who might have had 109 points but is further away. Personally judging players by hypothetical ceiling and floor (what I use to do) is just ranking players by personal feelings. You might think there is no personal bias but there is.

Johnson didn't look like he belonged in Rochester's top 4 in the playoffs. I don't think he is nearly as reliable as people think. If his season stopped after his first two weeks with the Sabres, I would agree with the takes from people who see some dependable defensive player.

At his size and the lack of offensive production, there is still a way to go before being anything beyond a #7 type

 

[Chainshot]

Johnson didn't look like he belonged in Rochester's top 4 in the playoffs. I don't think he is nearly as reliable as people think. If his season stopped after his first two weeks with the Sabres, I would agree with the takes from people who see some dependable defensive player.

At his size and the lack of offensive production, there is still a way to go before being anything beyond a #7 type

In his defense, nobody but maybe Metsa looked like they belong in a top four anywhere. They spent the entire series picking the boards out of their teeth. It’s a hard way to try and play defense when you’re forwards are blowing the zone and every check is being finished with authority on you.

 

[AaronPines]

Johnson + Kisakov

Wahlberg is a close second. I still think Johnson has upside as a 3/4 and is trending that way.

 

[Matt Ress]

Yeah I'm not looking at ceiling or floor at all anymore, it's just what are you doing at your current level. I'm still figuring out how to adjust stats at say College/WHL/QMJHL/OHL level to SHL/AHL/KHL in my gradings.

Respect. These polls are always interesting based on everyone's different weighting. I admit I do a lot of projecting based on eyes and instincts. I could probably learn a lot from quantifying my thoughts

 

[HOOats]

I also value ceiling strongly. When I see two prospects whose ceilings are similar, my next criteria is floor. And I think that's where you and I differ a bit. I think RJ has shown that his long-term floor is a 6/7 Dman at the very absolute worst. Meanwhile.....while I like what I've seen out of Wahlberg.....I haven't seen enough to say that his floor is that of a no-doubt NHL player.

You mention that Wahlberg could play games later this year -- that's only if he's playing in Rochester. I still think that there is a very reasonable chance that we loan him back to Malmo this year.

You think Wahlberg and Johnson have similar ceilings?

I'd be very surprised if he's returned to Malmo. I want him banging with the big boys in the AHL.

 

[HOOats]

Yeah I'm not looking at ceiling or floor at all anymore, it's just what are you doing at your current level. I'm still figuring out how to adjust stats at say College/WHL/QMJHL/OHL level to SHL/AHL/KHL in my gradings.

Byron Bader and a dozen other NHLe poindexters have already done that work for you...

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Respect. These polls are always interesting based on everyone's different weighting. I admit I do a lot of projecting based on eyes and instincts. I could probably learn a lot from quantifying my thoughts

The top 5-7 prospects I weight on how close I think they are to being a full time NHL guy. Then it’s “tweeners”. Then it moves into “could make my projections wrong and it’s who I like more”.

Injuries come in to play, obviously, but that’s my criteria. We’re at the point where the three way horse race between Johnson, Rosen and Wahlberg is split, but I think RJ is a better prospect because he has an easier path. He’s the same spot I had last year only this time Benson and Savoie aren’t other options.

 

[HOOats]

Wahlberg love spam

His mobility for his size is top notch. That plus his high motor pursuit and reach makes his floor a better Eric Robinson. His ceiling? Maybe a blend of Miles Wood and Alex Tuch? His hands and dynamic coordination are actually crazy for a tall July birthday D+1. Late bloomer who forced his way into the Swedish u20 setup. He's a legit top forward prospect even without a mature shot yet. And he plays with an actual edge that's been going extinct in Buffalo and in the league.

These are great reels to be clipped from only 9 regular season and 5 playoff AHL games (still months from turning 19).

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804262348850352171

 

[Matt Ress]

The top 5-7 prospects I weight on how close I think they are to being a full time NHL guy. Then it’s “tweeners”. Then it moves into “could make my projections wrong and it’s who I like more”.

Injuries come in to play, obviously, but that’s my criteria. We’re at the point where the three way horse race between Johnson, Rosen and Wahlberg is split, but I think RJ is a better prospect because he has an easier path. He’s the same spot I had last year only this time Benson and Savoie aren’t other options.

I might see Wahlberg as a higher probability/closer to make it than you do. Pretty close to a sure thing to me with a higher ceiling than Johnson. But I also see Novikov very close with a 3/4 ceiling. I'm sure everyone is tired of reading my opinion on him though lol