2024 Offseason Habs Thread -- news, musings, whatnot

[Scriptor]

Guhle does not seem durable. Hopefully, they find a way to improve on that with a better off season regimen and closer monitoring.

MOAR KEVLAR!

 

[Schooner Guy]

WHERE DO THE HABS DRAFT WITH THE WINNIPEG PICK?

2nd round matchups are:

NY Rangers-Carolina (irrelevant to Winnipeg rank, both teams draft later)
Florida-Boston (Boston win would knock Winnipeg up one rank)
Vancouver-Edmonton (Edmonton win would knock Winnipeg up one rank)
Dallas-Colorado (Colorado win would knock Winnipeg up one rank)
Vegas-Colorado (automatically knocks Winnipeg up one rank)

Winnipeg is currently drafting 27th.

Assuming every game/series is a 50/50 coin flip (which it is not), here are the odds of Winnipeg drafting at different spots:

• 27th - 6.25%
• 26th - 31.25%
• 25th - 43.75%
• 24th - 18.75%

If Dallas wins today, they change to:

• 27th - 12.5%
• 26th - 37.5%
• 25th - 37.5%
• 24th - 12.5%

If Vegas wins today, they change to:

• 27th - none
• 26th - 25.0%
• 25th - 50.0%
• 24th - 25.0%

The actual odds will skew slightly worse for the Habs as Florida is the favourite over Boston. Dallas-Vegas, Colorado-Dallas and Edmonton-Vancouver all seem close to toss-ups to me.

This is great! Thanks for breaking it all down.

Now please do the percentages of every possible scenario for the 2025 Calgary-Florida 1st round pick.

 

[HuGort]

I'll add my voice to this. I agree. Whoever we draft + whoever we trade for will fill out the top 6 and in 2 years....we have....

Slaf - Suzuki - Mack/Demi
Caufield - Dach - Necas?
Newhook - Beck - Roy

You don't think Mesar will make it?

 

[waitin425]

You don't think Mesar will make it?

I dont see him reaching the heights of any of the players listed. But maybe he will. Slot him on the fourth right there, with potential to climb the lineup or get traded for an upgrade somewhere else.

 

[HuGort]

I dont see him reaching the heights of any of the players listed. But maybe he will. Slot him on the fourth right there, with potential to climb the lineup or get traded for an upgrade somewhere else.

Can't see Mesar playing 4th line minutes. If he's not projected future top 6 probably trade candidate in package to move up.

 

[ReHabs]

Off-season musing: playoff hockey kicks ass and we should be looking forward to enjoying playoff games very soon.

Out of curiosity, how much will Sam Reinhart command on the market? 10m a year? 11.5% (and lowering) portion of the salary cap. Seems like a worthwhile FA to pursue if you want to inject a serious bit of talent to the top6.

 

[Runner77]

 

[vokiel]

I think we need a deep discussion on acquiring PLD once the Kings are eliminated. I don’t think we’ve discussed the topic enough.

I don't think 5 months would be enough.

No worries we will have Trevor Zegras to discuss all summer long.

The ship has sailed. How about Lundell?

 

[Runner77]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1791527929081475088

 

[CanukInAugusta]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1791527929081475088

What is the reason why Price isn't already on LTIR? I don't know what the rules are.

 

[Tyson]

What is the reason why Price isn't already on LTIR? I don't know what the rules are.

Price has to be evaluated at the start of each camp medically. Once he is deemed unable to perform he can be placed on LTIR. Annual drill.

 

[morhilane]

What is the reason why Price isn't already on LTIR? I don't know what the rules are.

Technically, you can have off-season LTIR, but it's:
A) totally useless unless you actually need it
B) if you start the season with off-seasons LTIR, your max cap is the total cap hit you have at the start of the season, so you don't put a salary on off-season LTIR unless you intend to max it at season start.

 

[BozoTheClown]

Look at trading Harvey-Pinard, Harris and Dvorak.

Sign Maroon to a 1 year deal to be traded at the deadline.

Get a 4th line centre.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Price has to be evaluated at the start of each camp medically. Once he is deemed unable to perform he can be placed on LTIR. Annual drill.

Imagine having to show up to fail a physical once a year where you get paid $10M to stay home.

 

[ReHabs]

What is the reason why Price isn't already on LTIR? I don't know what the rules are.

It resets every year. Regardless, a team can exceed the Salary cap by 10% of the ceiling anyway so Price's contract isn't in the way at all -- assume a cap ceiling of 86m, that means you can commit to spending 86+8.6 before the season begins.

The thing with putting him on LTIR is that a team ought to spend all of it to get the most use of it, so if the Habs have 10.5m worth of cap hit to add, they can do so. When commentators claim the Habs have 20m to spend, they mean c. 10m in open cap space and 10.5m in Price's cap hit that could be relieved and replaced.

 

[HABitual Fan]

It resets every year. Regardless, a team can exceed the Salary cap by 10% of the ceiling anyway so Price's contract isn't in the way at all -- assume a cap ceiling of 86m, that means you can commit to spending 86+8.6 before the season begins.

The thing with putting him on LTIR is that a team ought to spend all of it to get the most use of it, so if the Habs have 10.5m worth of cap hit to add, they can do so. When commentators claim the Habs have 20m to spend, they mean c. 10m in open cap space and 10.5m in Price's cap hit that could be relieved and replaced.

Price's cap is basically unspendable before the season unless other players are starting the year on IR like Dvorak last year. Good luck finding a player that is willing to attend camp on a PTO and only sign a contract after Price goes on regular season LTIR. Bergie, the gift that keeps giving!

 

[ReHabs]

Price's cap is basically unspendable before the season unless other players are starting the year on IR like Dvorak last year. Good luck finding a player that is willing to attend camp on a PTO and only sign a contract after Price goes on regular season LTIR. Bergie, the gift that keeps giving!

I think Price can considered LTIR even before the October start date. This is how Vegas go around to utilizing Weber’s contract’s cap space in the Dadanov trade.

Otherwise I agree, Bergy screwed the pooch with the Price contract structure and basically tons of other things too.

 

[DAChampion]

IMO, keep the Jets 1st round pick and draft BPA.

 

[overlords]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1791527929081475088

Can someone with a twitter/x account tell capfriendly about their own dark mode function, geez.

 

[Beer and Chips]

Although the rebuild is not completed yet but it's still over.

Habs don't need to trade more assets to get picks and prospects, they have a load of them already. They already set-up for another big draft this year and the next with 12 picks including 2 first rounder in each of the next 2 drafts.

Time to move to the next phase of the rebuild.

The rebuild isn't over, keep drafting. Trading first round picks for immediate help while we have practically no forward depth is a mistake.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Look at trading Harvey-Pinard, Harris and Dvorak.

Sign Maroon to a 1 year deal to be traded at the deadline.

Get a 4th line centre.

Maroon is probably going to retire.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

The rebuild isn't over, keep drafting. Trading first round picks for immediate help while we have practically no forward depth is a mistake.

They should only trade picks for good young players. Have to try to give the troops hope that they will be making the playoffs within the next couple of years. If there is no Newhook - type deal to be had then just keep drafting and preferably forwards.

 

[DAChampion]

Look at trading Harvey-Pinard, Harris and Dvorak.

Those types of players are routinely available for free on the waiver wire.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Those types of players are routinely available for free on the waiver wire.

Harvey-Pinard yes. The others no.

 

[Rapala]

Those types of players are routinely available for free on the waiver wire.

Look at trading Harvey-Pinard, Harris and Dvorak.

Sign Maroon to a 1 year deal to be traded at the deadline.

Get a 4th line centre.

Yikes Maroon was done last season.