Speculation: 2024 Off-season Team Discussion

[Mangosteen]

1 bird in the hand.

I would love to move our draft picks for proven young talent. NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Draft picks are a gamblers dream.

 

[Jakey53]

He's an RFA. If Carolina wants to sign him for cheaper than his contract demands, their only option is through an arbitration hearing. Necas's camp will, like you said, point out that he had 70 pts last year and 60ish this year, and was a great playoff performer this year and decent last year.

Necas will point to guys like Meier, Debrincat, and Terry who all filed for arbitration and had similar stats to him at time of signing. Those contracts run between 5-8m in terms of salary which is what Arbitration cares about (although Suzuki, another similar player, just got 10m). Carolina has 27m with Jarvis, TT, Guentzel, Drury, Pesce and Skjei needing contracts.

Jarvis will rightfully want more than Necas. If Carolina wants to stay competitive (seems likely) they need to at least keep Pesce and Drury too. Or at least according to their fans they want to keep Pesce really badly. Drury probably won't get much but he's been good in the playoffs. Could see that going to Arbitration too.

They need at least 5 players signed with that 27m. Jarvis I can't see taking any less than 7 and will probably get more than that, but lets assume 7. That's 20m for 4 players now.

And these guys aren't the 3rd and 4th liners for Carolina. These are 4 players in the top 6 who need to be signed or replaced. Even if Drury only gets like 2m, there is just no way Necas will be happy getting 5 or 6. I believe it was reported he wants 8 something. Carolina just can't afford that.

So they have two options. They can either go to arbitration, which will probably be 1-2 years given that Necas has already said he wants to play center and doesn't intend on signing long term with Carolina, and hope that Arbitration awards him a 5m contract and they can give him a bunch of performance bonuses to keep him happy that won't impact the cap...or they can trade him.

I believe Necas will be available in a trade, and he would be a nice add, but I don't think you could count on him being any good playing C, and besides giving him a new contract we will have to give up assets. There will be other teams looking at him as well. As usual time will tell.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Ran it through undetectable AI.

View attachment 874349

AI to detect AI? I smell a bot conspiracy.

 

[Kaizen]

I hope they can trade for at least 2 NHL Ds during the draft weekend...

And sign Duda.

 

[Schemp]

And sign Duda.

Sign him? They have to find him 1st!

 

[Heldig]

<shrug>
This is the head bot...

View attachment 874312

So not legit.

 

[rt]

He isn't switching to center. It's not like he's never played center. Last year he took 417 faceoffs, which is good second line center numbers.

417 faceoffs is less than half of a 2nd line center.

 

[Dead Coyote]

417 faceoffs is less than half of a 2nd line center.

My bad, thought I was remembering FOW and not FO.

You're right that that would put him around 4th or 5th for most teams. I wouldn't necessarily say it's less than half because some teams spread out their faceoffs a lot (like Anaheim) where they don't have a true #1C and some teams have guys who take like 2k faceoffs (Crosby etc). Also often times centers will take 20+ faceoffs throughout the night so a few games could really swing it.

My point though is that he has 2nd line skill, has the skills for the center role (good distributor, defensively responsible, sees the ice well, potentially decent faceoff skills though hard to say for sure) and has never been given that opportunity by Carolina.

I would be interested in seeing how many players have a good FO% in their first full year as a center. Necas had 45%, Cooley (this year) had 38%. McTavish had 42%. Cozens had 45%, Obviously these guys are much younger than Necas was when they had their first years, I just looked at guys off the top of my head. I'm curious also if there's anyone who was a pure winger who was switched to C for a season like Necas was.

 

[tucknroll]

I like Necas, don't think he is the upgrade people are expecting him to be though. Also wouldn't count on him being a better center either. He's about as much of a center as Schmaltz is. A slightly better option, which is great when you need a filler but at full time he wont provide you with much of an advantage.
For me, If you can get Necas at 6.5-6.75mill (maybe 7) and you can get him for the price of Schmaltz (or whatever Schmatlz is worth)+ 3rd... thats an avenue worth exploring.

Schmaltz gets too much hate around here though. You will struggle to find a player that controls the puck like he does. He gains the zone/pick pockets and he rarely turns the puck over. He is a poor mans Nylander and that is still a very valuable asset. He can be soft but lets not act like Necas is a hard nosed player that kills in the corners.

Also wouldn't explore Lindholm unless he will take 1 year so we can retain half and move him. He wouldn't be more than a stop gap and he will be 33 before this team is actually competing. With his consistency I'm not willing to pay him his last big contract just to hope he can find and keep his rhythm here.

 

[rt]

My bad, thought I was remembering FOW and not FO.

You're right that that would put him around 4th or 5th for most teams. I wouldn't necessarily say it's less than half because some teams spread out their faceoffs a lot (like Anaheim) where they don't have a true #1C and some teams have guys who take like 2k faceoffs (Crosby etc). Also often times centers will take 20+ faceoffs throughout the night so a few games could really swing it.

My point though is that he has 2nd line skill, has the skills for the center role (good distributor, defensively responsible, sees the ice well, potentially decent faceoff skills though hard to say for sure) and has never been given that opportunity by Carolina.

I would be interested in seeing how many players have a good FO% in their first full year as a center. Necas had 45%, Cooley (this year) had 38%. McTavish had 42%. Cozens had 45%, Obviously these guys are much younger than Necas was when they had their first years, I just looked at guys off the top of my head. I'm curious also if there's anyone who was a pure winger who was switched to C for a season like Necas was.

I love Necas. He’s who I wanted before we traded the pick for Stepan. I’m not dogging Necas. I’m a big fan. But he’s a winger. That’s all I’m saying.

 

[DustyDangler]

I like Necas, don't think he is the upgrade people are expecting him to be though. Also wouldn't count on him being a better center either. He's about as much of a center as Schmaltz is. A slightly better option, which is great when you need a filler but at full time he wont provide you with much of an advantage.
For me, If you can get Necas at 6.5-6.75mill (maybe 7) and you can get him for the price of Schmaltz (or whatever Schmatlz is worth)+ 3rd... thats an avenue worth exploring.

Schmaltz gets too much hate around here though. You will struggle to find a player that controls the puck like he does. He gains the zone/pick pockets and he rarely turns the puck over. He is a poor mans Nylander and that is still a very valuable asset. He can be soft but lets not act like Necas is a hard nosed player that kills in the corners.

Also wouldn't explore Lindholm unless he will take 1 year so we can retain half and move him. He wouldn't be more than a stop gap and he will be 33 before this team is actually competing. With his consistency I'm not willing to pay him his last big contract just to hope he can find and keep his rhythm here.

His giveaways (unforced turnovers) are amongst the most frustrating things about him. Amongst forwards he had the 2nd most for the Coyotes and was 30th in the league.

 

[tucknroll]

His giveaways (unforced turnovers) are amongst the most frustrating things about him. Amongst forwards he had the 2nd most for the Coyotes and was 30th in the league.

Doesn't bug me as much. Love having a player that wants to have the play on their stick, I want players who are comfortable skating with the puck. Doing that will obviously lead to more ugly turnovers, but it's the players that don't know when to let the play go or don't have the skill to evade forced situations and turn it over that bug me. Forced/trapped turnovers annoy me more than anything typically.

 

[Grimes]

I like Necas, don't think he is the upgrade people are expecting him to be though. Also wouldn't count on him being a better center either. He's about as much of a center as Schmaltz is. A slightly better option, which is great when you need a filler but at full time he wont provide you with much of an advantage.
For me, If you can get Necas at 6.5-6.75mill (maybe 7) and you can get him for the price of Schmaltz (or whatever Schmatlz is worth)+ 3rd... thats an avenue worth exploring.

Schmaltz gets too much hate around here though. You will struggle to find a player that controls the puck like he does. He gains the zone/pick pockets and he rarely turns the puck over. He is a poor mans Nylander and that is still a very valuable asset. He can be soft but lets not act like Necas is a hard nosed player that kills in the corners.

Also wouldn't explore Lindholm unless he will take 1 year so we can retain half and move him. He wouldn't be more than a stop gap and he will be 33 before this team is actually competing. With his consistency I'm not willing to pay him his last big contract just to hope he can find and keep his rhythm here.

I do agree with all of this. There really aren't many players who have the same level of skill that Schmaltz has. The ones who have that kind of skill + are great in all areas are the top tier players.

I do think Maccelli will be able to bring a lot of that playmaking and puck on stick creativity though.

Necas brings a little bit more of that driving the net or finding way to get puck on net from high danger positions, which is something we lack. Even though he may not be a "bruiser" I think he is much better at causing some havoc than our skilled guys.

Imagine having him and Guenther on separate lines, with Maccelli, Keller and Cooley dishing pucks. Now add But to this mix. Geez!

 

[tucknroll]

I do agree with all of this. There really aren't many players who have the same level of skill that Schmaltz has. The ones who have that kind of skill + are great in all areas are the top tier players.

I do think Maccelli will be able to bring a lot of that playmaking and puck on stick creativity though.

Necas brings a little bit more of that driving the net or finding way to get puck on net from high danger positions, which is something we lack. Even though he may not be a "bruiser" I think he is much better at causing some havoc than our skilled guys.

Imagine having him and Guenther on separate lines, with Maccelli, Keller and Cooley dishing pucks. Now add But to this mix. Geez!

Yeh I agree with all of this as well.. I think bringing in Necas would be a solid move.. for me though it would have to be as long as it meets the requirements I mentioned before between his contract extension and the price of acquiring him. He's younger and he's RFA so we have him locked into the organization with a chance at a longer extension vs potentially having him walk like Schmaltz will have the chance to do.

2 things you said that I am hesitant on though.
Maccelli who I'm a big fan of and a big name I wanted to draft and was happy when we did.. idk how much I trust him once he gets his payday. I want to see what he does these next two years before I bank on him long term.

And of all the players you mentioned. There's only 1 real center as I don't think Necas is a full time center on a winning team. I'm hoping Hayton can come back strong this season and take a step forward. Being a power forward at his age/size will take some more time but I think he can become a real solid #2 and he's already our best faceoff guy.

So I think Necas can be one our best rw's right now while filling a nice needs on the team for 3-4 years (great because we are only guaranteed 2 more with Schmaltz) and long term it's likely he'll overtaken by the younger guys. Similar to what has happened in Carolina. Hence why I don't want his contract to cost too much and hurt the team when they are finally trying to compete.

 

[lanky]

Would Schmaltz + Matikka be a competitive offer for Necas?

I wonder if Bill would prefer to keep the gang together. It's been a whirlwind that these players have been through. The locker room could have an Us Against the World theme next season and it could help them get the next level. Schmaltz clearly fits with the group - especially with Keller.

 

[Jakey53]

Necas also actually plays defense, isn't particularly inconsistent, and isn't really a perimeter player as much as Schmaltz is. Note that also while Schmaltz has more of a body of work than Necas, he has never reached the same peak that Necas has, and Necas's most recent seasons are still pretty much better than Schmaltz's peak. Plus Necas is a better center. The only real thing Schmaltz has going for him is his contract, but Utah has 40m in cap space with pretty much only their D to sign.

Are we talking about the same player? What peak are you talking about? I wanted Necas because I thought he played C as well until rt set me straight. We all hate Schmaltz at C but Necas is no better. His lifetime FO% is 41%, Schmaltz is 40%. Necas is a .67PPG, Schmaltz is .71PPG. Necas is younger but I expect him to cost more with a new contract. Schmaltz is turning into a pretty good contract. It really all depends on what we can get for Schmaltz and what we have to give up for Necas. But if you think he will solve our C problems, well, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Jakey53]

417 faceoffs is less than half of a 2nd line center.

Last year he took 138 with a 34FO%.

 

[Jakey53]

I love Necas. He’s who I wanted before we traded the pick for Stepan. I’m not dogging Necas. I’m a big fan. But he’s a winger. That’s all I’m saying.

As a player I would take Necas over Schmaltz, mostly because of his age. But, what does he want on a new contract, what will Carolina want for him, and what can we get for Schmaltz in a trade? So many unknowns.

 

[Jakey53]

His giveaways (unforced turnovers) are amongst the most frustrating things about him. Amongst forwards he had the 2nd most for the Coyotes and was 30th in the league.

Necas was 32nd. and on his team for forwards he was 2nd. Not sure that I would put much weight with these stats as the players that have the puck on their sticks more usually have more giveaways.

 

[rt]

Would Schmaltz + Matikka be a competitive offer for Necas?

I wonder if Bill would prefer to keep the gang together. It's been a whirlwind that these players have been through. The locker room could have an Us Against the World theme next season and it could help them get the next level. Schmaltz clearly fits with the group - especially with Keller.

Forget Necas. Let’s shoot for Cirell+Jeannot.

 

[DustyDangler]

Necas was 32nd. and on his team for forwards he was 2nd. Not sure that I would put much weight with these stats as the players that have the puck on their sticks more usually have more giveaways.

You can put weight on it when someone is saying "he rarely turns the puck over". It is not rare, it is common. I agree on the "pucks on their sticks" premise as some of the best players in the league have the most giveaways but Schmaltz isn't in that group and if you compare it to his better linemate, Clayton Keller, you will see Schmaltz has ~20% more giveaways.

 

[Grimes]

And of all the players you mentioned. There's only 1 real center as I don't think Necas is a full time center on a winning team. I'm hoping Hayton can come back strong this season and take a step forward. Being a power forward at his age/size will take some more time but I think he can become a real solid #2 and he's already our best faceoff guy.

Honestly the center issue is the bigger need and concern at forward. Necas is kind of a fun idea, a nice potential upgrade that makes sense for the rebuild (to some extent) that could realistically happen. But I think we really need to address center.

I'm still a Hayton supporter. The flashes have shown a player who is willing to battle in the dirty areas, absolutely piss other teams off, and dgaf about parking his ass in front of the goalie while getting checked from behind for two minutes straight. He's still young enough to continue growing and developing. I completely agree he could become a solid 2C but more likely than not will be a value 3C.

But like last season of anyone of McBain, Hayton, Bjudstadt or Cooley go down we look very very thin at center.

Forget Necas. Let’s shoot for Cirell+Jeannot.

This is the way. I'm all about going for Bennett too but Cirelli being locked up long term is huge. Having him in the team means Geekie panning out isn't a must-happen situation. It could let Hayton focus on his offensive development too. You could even make a shutdown line with Cirelli and let the Cooley and Keller lines exploit mismatches.

Two 2nds (in 38th and then a later one?) + Jenik. TBL probably wants a player back to fill Cirelli's spot and while I just said we need more centers k would be comfortable adding Bjudstadt here. Saves them a ton of cap to re-sign Stamkos.

 

[Llewzaher]

I wonder if BA tries to go for someone being coached by AT at the worlds…maybe Tavares who rumour has it is 79% on the draw over there….

Side note Guenther getting less and less ice time over there..hopefully he has a couple of stellar performances

Guenther player of the game today

 

[Foggy1097]

If I could handpick a player on D to add to this roster it might be Rasmus Andersson…just not sure CGY wants to part with him, especially after losing Hanifin. Guess it just depends on how deep they want to cut when it comes to rebuilding their team. I would probably give up Crouse + Soderstrom + a 2nd for him.

 

[Kaizen]

Small sample size and all that but Nick Paul would be a name BA should look at if Tampa is looking to move money. There seems to be some chemistry with Spicy Dyl.