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Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

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All Mighty

All Mighty

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Gliff

Gliff

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lwvs84 said:
I'm hoping it's a small market team that has never won #1. In the last 20 years, the top 11 (roughly 1/3) valued franchises have won 12 #1 picks, the bottom 11 franchises have won 4. At some point, that's got to course correct. Too bad it wasn't last year, but hopefully small market teams go on a run starting with us this year.
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This is such a flawed argument. The value of franchises go up if they win the lottery and subsequently win cups.

The Blackhawks were a middle of the road franchise in terms of value in 2006. They were within like 10 mil of the Ducks value. Same for the Oilers. They were worth 166 mil in 2009 before they had their stretch of wins, the Ducks were worth 206.

Use critical thinking here and you will see there is a clear reason why this is.
 

eaterfan

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Gliff said:
Because the consolation price last year was a 6'4 Swedish #1 center to build your team around for the next decade+.

This year that guy isn't there at #2 or 3.
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On the one hand, the consolation prize was Carlsson or Fantilli, so the floor on that pick was higher than anything available after Celebrini this year. But on the other hand, not winning cost Bedard and there's no one in this draft with that ceiling.

I think the lottery this year is much less consequential than last year. I think "winning" last year (staying at 1) would have gotten us a real generational player. Losing got us a legit franchise player. This year winning 1st gets a legit franchise player. Winning 2nd is not much different than staying at 3 or even losing and moving to 4 or 5. All those players have a similar range of outcomes and likelihood of hitting them.
 
HanSolo

HanSolo

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eaterfan said:
On the one hand, the consolation prize was Carlsson or Fantilli, so the floor on that pick was higher than anything available after Celebrini this year. But on the other hand, not winning cost Bedard and there's no one in this draft with that ceiling.

I think the lottery this year is much less consequential than last year. I think "winning" last year (staying at 1) would have gotten us a real generational player. Losing got us a legit franchise player. This year winning 1st gets a legit franchise player. Winning 2nd is not much different than staying at 3 or even losing and moving to 4 or 5. All those players have a similar range of outcomes and likelihood of hitting them.
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Pretty much this on all counts.
 

shach1

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BUT IF WE GOT BEDARD LAST YEAR, WE PROBABLY FINISH WITH THE 7TH OR 8TH BEST ODDS THIS YEAR.

ID RATHER HAVE LEO AND CELEBRINI OR DOMIDOV THAN BEDARD AND PICK 8 OR 9
 
Reveille1984

Reveille1984

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Celebrini's not going to be Crosby/McDavid/Bedard level, but his game is already well-rounded and he's above average to elite at pretty much everything. I think he'll end up being just as good as the Hughes/Matthews tier of 1OA picks.

I wouldn't be as pissed as missing out on Bedard since I think we can still grab a good player in the top five. And I'm more concerned with actually getting to the point where we aren't worried about picking first every year. Winning the lottery would help us save some cash on Verbeek overpaying for a RW in his 30's this offseason though...
 

lwvs84

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Gliff said:
This is such a flawed argument. The value of franchises go up if they win the lottery and subsequently win cups.

The Blackhawks were a middle of the road franchise in terms of value in 2006. They were within like 10 mil of the Ducks value. Same for the Oilers. They were worth 166 mil in 2009 before they had their stretch of wins, the Ducks were worth 206.

Use critical thinking here and you will see there is a clear reason why this is.
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Then why aren't Pens and Lightning up there? Avs are dead center too. There are certain markets that will be up there when they win. Do you really think McDavid in Arizona makes them a top 10 franchise? I'm not saying it's rigged, I'm saying that it would be nice to get exposure to teams that need it. Like you said, a #1 pick makes money for clubs... the teams not making money need it more.
 
robbieboy3686

robbieboy3686

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eaterfan said:
100% agree here.

1. Outside of Cellebrini, I doing anyone in this draft is playing in the NHL for long periods this season.

2. Ducks aren't going to be Cup contenders for awhile. Get the player who will beat help with that. Even a very optimistic timeline puts that at 3 years. This team finished with 59 points. Maybe they were better and got unlucky with injuries. Maybe true talent, they were more like a 70 point team. Even with another big step forward and great health, that gets them to 85 points. That's still not likely to make the playoffs. Then the year after that they get to the mid 90s. The year after that they are true cup contenders. Any of the top guys could be ready by then. Pick the best player.
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We don’t need the dman we draft to be in the nhl this season. We will have luneau to develop fresh this season, a new top pair rhd we sign/trade for this summer. And hopefully 1 last Fowler season where he plays a more sheltered roll and establishes some trade value for himself again.
 
Gliff

Gliff

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lwvs84 said:
Then why aren't Pens and Lightning up there? Avs are dead center too. There are certain markets that will be up there when they win. Do you really think McDavid in Arizona makes them a top 10 franchise? I'm not saying it's rigged, I'm saying that it would be nice to get exposure to teams that need it. Like you said, a #1 pick makes money for clubs... the teams not making money need it more.
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Of course there are other factors that go into value. But the argument that we should take the value of franchises today to judge the NHL's motivations 20 years ago is absurd.

For the record, Pittsburg was a top 10 team for like a decade and then they fell. Which is really impressive since I dont think Pitts is even in the top 30 in media markets.
 

lwvs84

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Gliff said:
Of course there are other factors that go into value. But the argument that we should take the value of franchises today to judge the NHL's motivations 20 years ago is absurd.

For the record, Pittsburg was a top 10 team for like a decade and then they fell. Which is really impressive since I dont think Pitts is even in the top 30 in media markets.
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To be fair, Pittsburgh is supposed to be an amazing sports city. I've only talked to people from there (never been during football/hockey season), but it sounds like most people are really passionate about their teams.

And maybe a better way to put it is I want to see a non traditional hockey market win it? All of the teams currently in the top 11(or as of last year, I think Seattle just passed New Jersey) are established markets with a long history. Columbus, Arizona/Utah, Anaheim, San Jose have a combined 0 lottery wins and 1 Cup (I think, at least since they moved to AZ no lottery wins or Cups) and those teams have 4 of the 6 best odds to win #1. As much as it would suck to have Celebrini in division, I'd rather see San Jose win it than a few other teams.
 
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