You are overestimating the Sabres' management. They have, time after time, said and shown that they do not believe handedness matters on defense.
Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
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You are overestimating the Sabres' management. They have, time after time, said and shown that they do not believe handedness matters on defense.
evnted
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the likes of catton and sennecke are great prospects who could definitely go top 10 (and i dont anticipate that anyone here would really disagree) but i think when we look at both where the team is currently at as well as the long term outlooks for the two prospects, it makes it a little difficult to cheer for them to be the pick rather than a fine pick
i love catton's vision and dual threat offensive ability. i think hes one of the craftiest players in this class and really appreciate how much hes accomplished on what essentially is a one-line team in spokane (even factoring in that some of his herculean production is influenced by his heavy, heavy minutes). hes not some east-west overhandler who has to make every play a highlight reel, hes very direct at taking the puck to the net and dangerous pretty much whenever hes on it. its rare to see him make an outright poor decision with the puck. i wouldnt even blink if a team in the top 9 thought his skillset was worth gambling on that early
the issue for me is twofold. first, everything he excels at, most of our core excels at. we have vision and playmaking and skill all over the top 6. theres a redundancy in adding something that the big boys already do so well, especially factoring in that his downsides heavily overlap with the teams downsides. weve seen the past few years that the nico and jack lines are amplified when a tatar or haula is added to them. someone needs to go deep on the forecheck, someone needs to be the first to backcheck, someone needs to win puck battles, someone needs to excel along the boards. for as great as catton is, he does none of this for us. he has perimeter tendancies when hes not coming in off the rush, his skating (while good) is not elite, his 200ft play is inconsistent, and he has neither the compete nor edge nor build to reliably win puck battles (and none of this is to say that he would ever be drafted to do that, just that you can only have so much of the same in your top 6 before it wont be able to function in a real game)
the second complaint, and ill overlap this with a sennecke discussion, is timeline. im a big believer that truly successful teams have a core thats within a relatively tight age bracket (since you need all your main players thriving at the same time, which weve seen with the likes of TBL, COL, etc.). jack to timo is only about 4 years difference. when we talk long term project players like catton and sennecke, who could take 4-5 years to reach their main form, all of a sudden timo is on the wrong side of 30 and nico/bratt are on their way out of their primes by the time the pick can be considered a primary impact player. while i will always advocate for talent turnover, thats not the best use of a pick when comparable level prospects have way more fast-tracked routes to/advantageous games for the roster
if we flip to sennecke now, i do agree i think hed be more likely for us than catton. his trajectory this season is awesome and ive been blown away by his playoff dominance. elite handling, incredible on and off puck awareness, very impressive mobility at his size, and just an overall creativity level that deserves the recognition its now receiving. the problem, again, lies in value to the roster. his size, at this point in time, is basically cosmetic. it is not difficult to project sennecke filling out his frame to play a heavier, stronger game on the puck, but theres no guarantee he will and if he does it will still take time. his reach while stickhandling is basically the only time he reliably uses his size to his advantage. now of course, i know he just had a big growth spurt and it shouldnt be expected that he would be doing this at this point, but it goes back to what i was saying about timeline
a couple other things come into play here as well. sennecke has done a great job of removing some glaring compete/engagement issues, very poor decisions with the puck, and general overhandling/flash from his game and deserves a lot of praise for doing so, but its still intermittently present as an issue. and again, when we look to the roster, particularly this past season, thats not exactly a project we should be seeking out at this point. we need cerebral, dependable, intense forecheckers who constantly compete to bolster the talent we already have
this is running a bit longer than i intended but i wanted to make sure i explained myself because i do like catton and sennecke, i would have no issue with teams pursuing them in the top 10, and in fact will root for them to succeed long term because they are both fun prospects to watch (unless one lands in philly, of course). to me, though, the devils are in such an enviable spot. it is borderline comical a team with this roster holds a top 10 pick, and i think we would be remiss not to use it to perfectly address team need in a draft that (and this is the important part so i dont get flagged for only wanting need lol) has very little certainty beyond celebrini (and demidov even if people want to try to argue that one)
the reason people are constantly arguing for helenius and mbn (and ill throw iginla in here myself even if hes not as popular/as likely at 10) is because they all offer impressive upside while also directly and more immediately filling in a hole (or multiple holes) on the roster. i dont think its fair to argue, say, helenius as having lower upside than catton just because he lacks some of the flash or shooting ability. the vision, playmaking, mobility all grade out as close enough and compete, forechecking, 200ft play all grade out as superior and, not to mention, pro league play almost always masks top end ability due to these kids playing to keep their jobs
mbn might be the only argument for a player whose top end outlook doesnt quite compare to a catton or sennecke, but i think we (and his super fans) would retort that the fit is quite nearly perfect, particularly so if he does wind up more of a C/RW hybrid who could flex all over the top 9. so yes, perhaps picking him compromises a bit of that higher level playmaking or handling, but i think its clear to see just how much more of an obvious hit he'll be as well as how significantly his play will supplement the players weve committed money to. mbn is the type of player that a gm would inevitably overpay/overextend to land in free agency because you genuinely cannot have enough of them
all of that said, catton and sennecke still project as very good players, and if the whispers of sennecke going closer to 5 are true i still wont have anything that negative to say about the player or the pick, i just think most of us are wishing for close/similar upside players with much greater (and immediate) roster benefit for a team that is imminently about to contend
i love catton's vision and dual threat offensive ability. i think hes one of the craftiest players in this class and really appreciate how much hes accomplished on what essentially is a one-line team in spokane (even factoring in that some of his herculean production is influenced by his heavy, heavy minutes). hes not some east-west overhandler who has to make every play a highlight reel, hes very direct at taking the puck to the net and dangerous pretty much whenever hes on it. its rare to see him make an outright poor decision with the puck. i wouldnt even blink if a team in the top 9 thought his skillset was worth gambling on that early
the issue for me is twofold. first, everything he excels at, most of our core excels at. we have vision and playmaking and skill all over the top 6. theres a redundancy in adding something that the big boys already do so well, especially factoring in that his downsides heavily overlap with the teams downsides. weve seen the past few years that the nico and jack lines are amplified when a tatar or haula is added to them. someone needs to go deep on the forecheck, someone needs to be the first to backcheck, someone needs to win puck battles, someone needs to excel along the boards. for as great as catton is, he does none of this for us. he has perimeter tendancies when hes not coming in off the rush, his skating (while good) is not elite, his 200ft play is inconsistent, and he has neither the compete nor edge nor build to reliably win puck battles (and none of this is to say that he would ever be drafted to do that, just that you can only have so much of the same in your top 6 before it wont be able to function in a real game)
the second complaint, and ill overlap this with a sennecke discussion, is timeline. im a big believer that truly successful teams have a core thats within a relatively tight age bracket (since you need all your main players thriving at the same time, which weve seen with the likes of TBL, COL, etc.). jack to timo is only about 4 years difference. when we talk long term project players like catton and sennecke, who could take 4-5 years to reach their main form, all of a sudden timo is on the wrong side of 30 and nico/bratt are on their way out of their primes by the time the pick can be considered a primary impact player. while i will always advocate for talent turnover, thats not the best use of a pick when comparable level prospects have way more fast-tracked routes to/advantageous games for the roster
if we flip to sennecke now, i do agree i think hed be more likely for us than catton. his trajectory this season is awesome and ive been blown away by his playoff dominance. elite handling, incredible on and off puck awareness, very impressive mobility at his size, and just an overall creativity level that deserves the recognition its now receiving. the problem, again, lies in value to the roster. his size, at this point in time, is basically cosmetic. it is not difficult to project sennecke filling out his frame to play a heavier, stronger game on the puck, but theres no guarantee he will and if he does it will still take time. his reach while stickhandling is basically the only time he reliably uses his size to his advantage. now of course, i know he just had a big growth spurt and it shouldnt be expected that he would be doing this at this point, but it goes back to what i was saying about timeline
a couple other things come into play here as well. sennecke has done a great job of removing some glaring compete/engagement issues, very poor decisions with the puck, and general overhandling/flash from his game and deserves a lot of praise for doing so, but its still intermittently present as an issue. and again, when we look to the roster, particularly this past season, thats not exactly a project we should be seeking out at this point. we need cerebral, dependable, intense forecheckers who constantly compete to bolster the talent we already have
this is running a bit longer than i intended but i wanted to make sure i explained myself because i do like catton and sennecke, i would have no issue with teams pursuing them in the top 10, and in fact will root for them to succeed long term because they are both fun prospects to watch (unless one lands in philly, of course). to me, though, the devils are in such an enviable spot. it is borderline comical a team with this roster holds a top 10 pick, and i think we would be remiss not to use it to perfectly address team need in a draft that (and this is the important part so i dont get flagged for only wanting need lol) has very little certainty beyond celebrini (and demidov even if people want to try to argue that one)
the reason people are constantly arguing for helenius and mbn (and ill throw iginla in here myself even if hes not as popular/as likely at 10) is because they all offer impressive upside while also directly and more immediately filling in a hole (or multiple holes) on the roster. i dont think its fair to argue, say, helenius as having lower upside than catton just because he lacks some of the flash or shooting ability. the vision, playmaking, mobility all grade out as close enough and compete, forechecking, 200ft play all grade out as superior and, not to mention, pro league play almost always masks top end ability due to these kids playing to keep their jobs
mbn might be the only argument for a player whose top end outlook doesnt quite compare to a catton or sennecke, but i think we (and his super fans) would retort that the fit is quite nearly perfect, particularly so if he does wind up more of a C/RW hybrid who could flex all over the top 9. so yes, perhaps picking him compromises a bit of that higher level playmaking or handling, but i think its clear to see just how much more of an obvious hit he'll be as well as how significantly his play will supplement the players weve committed money to. mbn is the type of player that a gm would inevitably overpay/overextend to land in free agency because you genuinely cannot have enough of them
all of that said, catton and sennecke still project as very good players, and if the whispers of sennecke going closer to 5 are true i still wont have anything that negative to say about the player or the pick, i just think most of us are wishing for close/similar upside players with much greater (and immediate) roster benefit for a team that is imminently about to contend
2024 Draft Profile:
LD Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, Vaxjo JR, SWE JR
The inherent problem with analyzing chronically inconsistent players for the NHL draft is we naturally hope to believe that, with maturity and experience, they will iron out these inconsistencies and become the players they are capable of on a recurring level. The problem with this thinking is, while some players grow out of this by the time they hit the NHL, some do not, and it's quite difficult to properly identify the habits which lead to either end of this spectrum.
Leo Sahlin-Wallenius is one such player. When he is on his game, as he did mostly throughout a dominant season in Swedish juniors, the skill and potential are quite clear. He's a 6'0-185 offense-first defenseman who can fly in open ice. He's capable of passing and stick-handling which borders on the high-end, and he features an arsenal of shot angles and release points. This is a kid who likes to activate off the point and lead the rush and abet the offense whenever possible. He has the hands, feet and foresight to elude a player one-on-one from the point, and once he's in open ice he can beat you several ways -- nifty passing, deceptive shooting, or simply by beating a second defender with some fancy dangles and getting to an even higher-danger area himself.
Defensively, Sahlin-Wallenius is generally pretty decent. His gaps and positioning are quite good, he's solid against the rush and anticipates the game well -- this is a smart kid. Where he often fails is in his greasy-area defense, as this is not a player attuned to or in love with the physical side of the game.
But Sahlin-Wallenius' biggest problem right now is his propensity to disappear from games completely due to the adversity of getting hit or just simply playing against high-level competition. Without getting into specifics which will sound too negative, there have certainly been games where a couple of hits or mistakes led to more panic with the puck which led to more mistakes and panic with the puck for Sahlin-Wallenius. In a nutshell, he can unravel quickly and dramatically, and this is something which needs to be worked on far more than any physical aspect of his game.
If Sahlin-Wallenius can find a greater level of consistency, his tool-kit and smarts have the potential to lift him to an NHL second-pairing-type offensive defenseman who can also hold his own on all 200-feet of the rink. But he needs a few years of maturity and experience to get there, and that's the chance you're taking if you draft him in the 2nd round where he is normally ranked by the NHL draft consensus.
LD Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, Vaxjo JR, SWE JR
The inherent problem with analyzing chronically inconsistent players for the NHL draft is we naturally hope to believe that, with maturity and experience, they will iron out these inconsistencies and become the players they are capable of on a recurring level. The problem with this thinking is, while some players grow out of this by the time they hit the NHL, some do not, and it's quite difficult to properly identify the habits which lead to either end of this spectrum.
Leo Sahlin-Wallenius is one such player. When he is on his game, as he did mostly throughout a dominant season in Swedish juniors, the skill and potential are quite clear. He's a 6'0-185 offense-first defenseman who can fly in open ice. He's capable of passing and stick-handling which borders on the high-end, and he features an arsenal of shot angles and release points. This is a kid who likes to activate off the point and lead the rush and abet the offense whenever possible. He has the hands, feet and foresight to elude a player one-on-one from the point, and once he's in open ice he can beat you several ways -- nifty passing, deceptive shooting, or simply by beating a second defender with some fancy dangles and getting to an even higher-danger area himself.
Defensively, Sahlin-Wallenius is generally pretty decent. His gaps and positioning are quite good, he's solid against the rush and anticipates the game well -- this is a smart kid. Where he often fails is in his greasy-area defense, as this is not a player attuned to or in love with the physical side of the game.
But Sahlin-Wallenius' biggest problem right now is his propensity to disappear from games completely due to the adversity of getting hit or just simply playing against high-level competition. Without getting into specifics which will sound too negative, there have certainly been games where a couple of hits or mistakes led to more panic with the puck which led to more mistakes and panic with the puck for Sahlin-Wallenius. In a nutshell, he can unravel quickly and dramatically, and this is something which needs to be worked on far more than any physical aspect of his game.
If Sahlin-Wallenius can find a greater level of consistency, his tool-kit and smarts have the potential to lift him to an NHL second-pairing-type offensive defenseman who can also hold his own on all 200-feet of the rink. But he needs a few years of maturity and experience to get there, and that's the chance you're taking if you draft him in the 2nd round where he is normally ranked by the NHL draft consensus.
BurntToast
Registered User
50 pages, for the Devils to trade 10OA for a goalie or pick Cole Eiserman.
Guadana
Registered User
Sennecke is overhyped. And very talented in the same time. When people are trying to find new Tage Thompson in Wood or Geekie - Sennecke is their real guy.
But. There is a way he should walk through to develop his game to the potential he has.
Sennecke has interesting offensive potential because he can create space for himself by his stickhandling and make nice pass into the open lanes. His shot is very good, his stickhandling is great for his size. I cant name his as a great skater but he is good skater for his size. His passing vision and passing ability is active, he is thinking the game in the process, creating chances for his partners and making the situation more dangerous often.
But there are issues in his game. First of all - his starting speed and starting mobility. His first steps are slow, sometimes akward, he is deer on the skates. Not in every situations, but sometimes - definitely. He is better skater than Geekie or Wood - he has okay speed, he can skate in any directions, but he should be on the move. Reason why he has potential. Because lack of muscles and train for his "new body"(he grew a lot) will make his game better. But he should do this work, he should learn some things, he should work on his techniques.
His positional game in d zone doesnt exist mostly. He is good in taking away the puck, his hands is a tool, but he needs to put himself in the right position. He is pretty good in cycling in o zone - he is blocking opponents, moving, creating space with the puck, making dangerous passes, helping to save the puck in the zone, but in d zone he mostly passive and doesnt block a lot of space.
His physical game in puck battles has a lot of potential - because of his size and lack 0f weight, but for now he is better with his stick than with his body. What does work well in junior league - will not work in NHL. And he should learn how to balance his body, how to put himself in better position to win the board battles. From the positioning side he has good potential because now he is quite good in protecting the puck.
He should work on his decision making. He is putting a lot on his shoulders and doing some things for nothing. He isnt on the level of Catton in playmaking, his lack of mobility blocking his potential from the side where Catton can do more things, add more speed and creating more space.
Sennecke doesnt covering a lot of space, he isnt the player who will attack first against escaping, he isnt the player I would bet on center potential on NHL level.
Potential is big, Sennecke is very mobile on the move for his size, his protecting the puck is very good, he is very smart playmaker. But his lack of two way game, lack of starting speed and speed overall, lack of defensive game, his immaturity overall is putting him away now from players like Catton, who is better skater, better playmaker, like Nygard, who isnt as good in playmaking but much better shooter, much better and faster skater, much better 200 foot player, like Chernyshov, who is better in shooting, physical game, positional game, defensive game, but not as good in playmaking, like Helenius, who is smarter, much better 200 foot player, faster skater, like Iginla, who is more active and more annoying forechecker and better shooter.
And still its okay to bet on potential of Sennecke. If he will develop all of his weak sides or at least critical part, he has huge potential on NHL level. Parts like weight and muscles will be gained with the time(he needs it) and it will help to make his shot and skating better. He has visible potential in board battles. And I think with his overall tools his potential is better than some other tall lanky players from previous drafts with skating issues. Because skating of Sennecke isnt bad. May be he will never be great 200-foot player or defensive forward - Tage Thompson isnt good 200 foot player. And he went through the long way before being started to be great NHLer.
From Devils perspective - Sennecke doesnt have visible NHL center potential. Helenius has real potential to be center in NHL. Catton is questionable but he knows what he should do. Nygard is already playing like a center - covering a lot of ice, doing right things, making pressure against escaping etc. May be Sennecke has better offensive ceiling but his floor is lower. Its just words, I dont like them. What I like is a "realism" of the path he should go through. Players like Nygard, Helenius, Chernyshov and Catton have to complete fewer tasks. Its easier for them to develop what they should do.
And if we are talking about ceiling - Nygard can be 65-75+ points player with huge scoring ability (30-35-40 goals) because of his combo of working with creating space, physicals, skating, speed and best shot.
Chernyshov can be 70p+ power winger with two way abuilities because of his combo of defensive and physical game, his stickhandling, separation speed.
Catton has better potential to be 90p+ perimeter playmaking winger like Panarin.
Helenius can develop his game and play and produce as good as Aho. Its a high ceiling, but still his great iq and all of his tools are on the very good level. If he will develop some of them to the new levels - its a ppg+ two way center.
Senneceke has potential to be 90p+ player but again - lack of defensive work and two way game and very long path of what he should go through. Its great to gamble on it, I dont see a problem, but still its very questionable who is more important in the game, especially when we can see who is more successful and impactful. Some fans wants pure offensive upside, some fans wants player who can win battles in tranches and still has very good skill to create dangerous chances, who has vision to create space and ruin opponents hopes. The more important thing what Fitz is thinking. Nygard, Helenius and Chernyshov are not grinders - they are very good hockey players with a lot of better skills and much better defensive game, Iginla is a very pushy player with very good shot and passing vision. Its not a debate between role players and talents - its debate between two way hard to play against all around talents and playmakers with very weak and strong sides.
Catton isnt BPA. Sennecke isnt BPA. Iginla isnt BPA. Nygard and Chernyshov? Some of other players will definitely produce more points. May be Helenius is BPA because of best all around hockey iq and compete level. But still there is a big chance someone will outproduce him, especially if he will play third line center role. And still other players are better in some of aspects.
Guadana
Registered User
Than they will never turn the corner. On the other side - why they drafted Power over Beniers?
Guadana
Registered User
Posts like this is why our board is the best.
About Nygard/Catton/Sennecke/Helenius its really interesting how much impact players like Panarin, Gaudreaunee and Thompson creating in play off or guys like Bennett, Stone, Kopitar or Tkachuk.
And when I think about our team I can't forget that we already have Jack and Bratt.
We have player who can create chances, but we need more players who can live through the battles and produce in the same time. Haula and Palat can't produce. Mercer should mature, Holtz should go through a lot, his goal per minutes on the bottom lines is a good metric but only if he will continue to play with better center on the bottom line.
Its not about needs only, its about real impact in tight games. Who will outplay who will be outplayed. And Nygard, who is often promoted as role player with shot, has real potential of high scoring forward because if his skill combo of skating, speed, fast accurate plays and great shooting ability, Helenius, whi is often promoted as second line center or even complimentarywinger, has potential of the first line two way player who is making everything right because of compete level and hockey iq in the same time. May be both will produce less but will impact more.
evnted
Registered User
- Apr 14, 2016
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you as well sir. thread was a little quiet today so we apparently agreed to drop some book reports
you as well sir. thread was a little quiet today so we apparently agreed to drop some book reports
Neither of these things are entirely likely unless Nashville puts Saros on the market, which is also unlikely.
This is a terrific post, I agree 100%.
Terrific post here.
I agree our board is the best. Everyone give ourselves a round of applause, haha.
Please also write some more prospect profiles -- you're terrific at it and I can't do 150+ plus profiles like I did two and three years ago.you as well sir. thread was a little quiet today so we apparently agreed to drop some book reports
2024 Draft Profile:
LD Matvei Shuravin, Krasnaya MHL
If it's true that nothing is certain in life except death and taxes, we can also be pretty sure that an MHL player or two will be severely underrated for the NHL draft. Matvei Shuravin is a player who is almost universally ranked in the 2nd round, and sometimes even the 3rd. But in my personal opinion, were he playing in Canada or Sweden, he'd almost universally be ranked in the first.
Shuravin is huge and still growing. He was listed at the the outset of the season at 6'2 and finished the year at 6'4. His father is 6'6 so he might not be done. The fact that he's on the younger side of the draft class as a late-March birthday gives further credence to this uncommon but still occasional possibility. This is also important to mention in the context that Shuravin is a high-level skater, with the agility and acceleration of a small, speedy skill forward. He might be one of the best backwards skaters in the 2024 class, invaluable for a defenseman. When we also add the context that kids who are still growing are also capable of huge strides athletically because they are still getting used to their own bodies, the potential is immense. Because Shuravin is already a pretty terrific athlete.
Defense is Shuravin's strong point. He is a high IQ player who reads the play at an advanced level and, due to his agility, acceleration and reach, reacts quickly. He excels at breaking up the rush and using shoulder checks and very good angles to separate puck-carriers from the play. He is virtually impossible to beat on the outside because his backwards skating is so good, and dekes and cuts don't work either because he is so agile on his skates. You can't go through him because of his strength and length. In an 8 game cup of coffee in the KHL, Shuravin held his own defensively, though he was pretty invisible offensively.
But there is a lot to like about Shuravin's offensive potential. He is a very smart and accurate passer, both on the outlet and inside the offensive zone. Though he normally prefers to use his frame for puck protection rather than dangle, Shuravin actually has a pretty nifty set of hands and can surprise with a nice deke here and there. This is not a big, lumbering oaf -- he has some sneaky skill, though I'd still like to see him assert himself a bit more offensively. Strangely, his one weakness is his shot -- Shuravin takes awhile to get it off, and it's not as strong or accurate as one would prefer. But again, if this is a player who is still growing, we can probably count on his upper body strength having a much higher curve than the average draft-eligible player. I don't think we'll ever see him manning an NHL power play, but he has the potential to be far superior with the puck and in his scoring totals than the prototypical NHL shut-down defender.
And a NHL shut-down defender is not out of the reach of this talented young player. He's big and fast and smart; he's not dazzling with the puck by any means, but he's very adept and reliable. He's not a kid to make many mistakes, even against the high-end competition of the KHL. I'm confident Matvei Shuravin is worth a pick in the 2024 draft as early as the late 1st round.
LD Matvei Shuravin, Krasnaya MHL
If it's true that nothing is certain in life except death and taxes, we can also be pretty sure that an MHL player or two will be severely underrated for the NHL draft. Matvei Shuravin is a player who is almost universally ranked in the 2nd round, and sometimes even the 3rd. But in my personal opinion, were he playing in Canada or Sweden, he'd almost universally be ranked in the first.
Shuravin is huge and still growing. He was listed at the the outset of the season at 6'2 and finished the year at 6'4. His father is 6'6 so he might not be done. The fact that he's on the younger side of the draft class as a late-March birthday gives further credence to this uncommon but still occasional possibility. This is also important to mention in the context that Shuravin is a high-level skater, with the agility and acceleration of a small, speedy skill forward. He might be one of the best backwards skaters in the 2024 class, invaluable for a defenseman. When we also add the context that kids who are still growing are also capable of huge strides athletically because they are still getting used to their own bodies, the potential is immense. Because Shuravin is already a pretty terrific athlete.
Defense is Shuravin's strong point. He is a high IQ player who reads the play at an advanced level and, due to his agility, acceleration and reach, reacts quickly. He excels at breaking up the rush and using shoulder checks and very good angles to separate puck-carriers from the play. He is virtually impossible to beat on the outside because his backwards skating is so good, and dekes and cuts don't work either because he is so agile on his skates. You can't go through him because of his strength and length. In an 8 game cup of coffee in the KHL, Shuravin held his own defensively, though he was pretty invisible offensively.
But there is a lot to like about Shuravin's offensive potential. He is a very smart and accurate passer, both on the outlet and inside the offensive zone. Though he normally prefers to use his frame for puck protection rather than dangle, Shuravin actually has a pretty nifty set of hands and can surprise with a nice deke here and there. This is not a big, lumbering oaf -- he has some sneaky skill, though I'd still like to see him assert himself a bit more offensively. Strangely, his one weakness is his shot -- Shuravin takes awhile to get it off, and it's not as strong or accurate as one would prefer. But again, if this is a player who is still growing, we can probably count on his upper body strength having a much higher curve than the average draft-eligible player. I don't think we'll ever see him manning an NHL power play, but he has the potential to be far superior with the puck and in his scoring totals than the prototypical NHL shut-down defender.
And a NHL shut-down defender is not out of the reach of this talented young player. He's big and fast and smart; he's not dazzling with the puck by any means, but he's very adept and reliable. He's not a kid to make many mistakes, even against the high-end competition of the KHL. I'm confident Matvei Shuravin is worth a pick in the 2024 draft as early as the late 1st round.
evnted
Registered User
- Apr 14, 2016
- 816
- 2,026
im impressed we even got you back to this degree, maybe the one benefit of our season derailing as hard as it did lol
if you happen to have a list of who else you plan to write about, id appreciate getting a peak at it. think it would be most beneficial if we covered as many as possible rather than risk overlapping (which i suppose can happen more organically in conversation)
I haven't watched enough of Chernyshov to comment on him as a player but I just feel like Sennecke's upside is too high to pass on over a player like Nygard, as I feel like he is already pretty close to his ceiling. He seems to be close to physical maturity already and doesn't bring any dynamic abilities although he has an excellent shot. I'd rather take a chance on Eiserman than Nygard personally although I know Nygard is a much safer pick. If he was close to an elite skater I would feel better about selecting him in the top 10. You can teach a player to play a more complete game as long as they have a fairly high hockey IQ, and Sennecke has that. If Iginla is there I think we take him but I don't see him slipping past Calgary. If the rumors are true about Brady Tkachuk I think trading Bratt may get it done as his NTC doesn't kick in till next season so he won't have a choice. If that happens, I think Catton would be the ideal pick to replace Bratt.
Helenius would be a safe pick. I like him as a very good 3C on this team but I don't see him ever becoming a top line player at the NHL level. I think he is closer to his ceiling already, similar to Nygard. I think the Devils are in position to swing for the fences with this pick and go for the highest upside although I could see them playing it safe as well. Regardless, if Dickinson or Buium fall to us, I'd be happy to select them over any of the forwards mentioned.
Guadana
Registered User
Why you did decided that Senneckes upside is too high? Because he produced a lot of points in play off? Nygard produced record points in play off in harder league.
Eiserman over Nygard take. You are wrong, because you are saying -
“Nygard doesn't bring any dynamic abilities although he has an excellent shot”. Eiserman has ONLY shot. He isn’t tiny boy. But he is worser, slower skater than Nygard, his positional iq is bad, he is selfish, do nothing in D zone, quite passive in forecheck, can’t overplay and position himself in board battles.
Eiserman over Nygard?) I thought we already done with this conversation.
About “nothing only shot” take about Nygard - you are wrong. Because you should watch more game or at least read what posters write about his game. Nygard is the best and the fastest skater between Sennecke, Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius. When you are talking about "if he would be elite skater" you are own grade all the opposition not Nygard. His starting speed is advantage that gives him opportunity to regularly backcheck and take away the puck, start fast and find open spaces for a shot or open space for himself and drive the net or separate from opponent and give a pass to the opened partner who was opened because his opponent is trying to cover the opening zone.
And the most important thing is his positional iq. That’s a thing to make Nygard as one of the best players potentially. Because with his accurate passing, skating and speed, starting speed and shot he is knowing where he should be in all three zone and what he should do in any situation. He is best positional player between all of this players. He is best or near the best in covering the space in forecheck or in cycling or in d zone positioning, in creating the space for himself or for his partners with or without the puck.
When you are saying about “you can learn” I’m not actually see it. Mercer and Lundell are playing more than Rossi and Holtz.
Sennecke has limitations in his movements, in his actions on the speed - it’s great that with his frame he can outplay young smaller players but he isn’t fast and manipulative enough(like Lindstrom for example or Celebrini) to call his stick handling as a real tool for outplay one on one in nhl. His stick handling is good enough to control the puck on nhl level, but now we still talking about perimeter playmaking.
I like his offensive iq, but positional vision, playmaking ability and hockey iq is a different thing. There are a lot of players who does bring interesting decisions in o zone but can’t do shift in d zone.
When you are saying you can teach 200 foot game you are tricking yourself, not me. Because thing the game with the puck and without the puck is a different thing. And now Sennecke isn’t good with it.
When you are saying Nygard is already picked, you are tricking yourself again. Bedard was bulky on the draft, as Michkov. As many players. If player has great vision of the game - as Nygard, as Helenius - their potential isn’t blocking by their physical potential. And he is 6’1. It’s not like he is 178 sm 92 kg player.
There is a reason why Stuzle, who played wing in his draft year, was more bulky but started to play better earlier than Byfield or Lafreniere(both were better faster skaters than Sennecke), there were a reason why Quinn is better than Holtz(if we are comparing him with Eiserman), why Lundell and Mercer are playing more important roles than Holtz or Perfetti. Perfetti has great offensive iq. Of course he is small player but Sennecke isn’t great skater, he is good skater that makes his potential more real. How does Lappiere is developing? His only issue was his health. He was top 5 playmaker on the draft. Perreault was high offensive talent. Both were better playmakers (on paper) than Mercer or Lundell. As I remember a lot of scouts rank them higher in playmaking ability than Stuxle, at least Lappiere. How Peterka is looking now with his good compete and limited offensive potential. He wasn't even as good as two way positional player as Nygard with slower feets and easier shot - more like North South skater with good hands and very good compete level.
But again you can like Thompson, I prefer Tkachuk. And when we are talking about potential to achieve this pick, Nygard should do less to be what he can be in his best than Sennecke should do to be the best version of himself.
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I don’t have big reason now to spend time to compare him with Iginla because there were good enough comparisons before in the thread. Iginla is a player with some kind of tunnel vision, without good defensive game, without separating speed. Nygard is losing only in stickhandling, but players like Stone doesn’t handling the puck much. Still very productive and impactful.
Trading Bratt for Tkachuk is discussion for other board, still as bad as drafting Eiserman over Nygard.
I understand desire to draft Buium over any forward, but you literally trying to use "hypothetical ceiling" as a selling point, Dickinson doesn't have best ceiling between all of this players. I would draft him over most of this players but definitely not because of his bigger potential, because his limitations in decision making on the both sides of the ice doesn't make him best candidate for lighting up. Solid player for second pair or for secondary role in the first pair.
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Monsieur Verdoux
Registered User
Last night I watched a shift-by-shift game by Sennecke. It was the first time I saw him play.
I have difficult time to evaluate him properly. On one hand, he has quite soft hands, good shot and pretty good playmaking skills. On the other hand, he doesn't use his body (it is undoubtedly related to his growth spurt) and his game without the puck is quite similar to Eiserman. I mean, they both doesn't do a lot in the defensive zone and their compete isn't always that great. Sennecke's skating is okay, although the first few strides could be better.
In many ways, my first comp for him is Jason Robertson. No, I don't expect Sennecke to ever be as good as Robertson, but they have some similarities in their skating, skills set etc.
I have difficult time to evaluate him properly. On one hand, he has quite soft hands, good shot and pretty good playmaking skills. On the other hand, he doesn't use his body (it is undoubtedly related to his growth spurt) and his game without the puck is quite similar to Eiserman. I mean, they both doesn't do a lot in the defensive zone and their compete isn't always that great. Sennecke's skating is okay, although the first few strides could be better.
In many ways, my first comp for him is Jason Robertson. No, I don't expect Sennecke to ever be as good as Robertson, but they have some similarities in their skating, skills set etc.
Question for our draft prospect gurus here...
When you're evaluating a prospect, what flaws do you think are most or least correctable? I mean, obviously lanky players will likely add size and strength but are unlikely to add height (unless you're a giraffe), but what about other aspects? Skating, top speed, first step, shot, vision, shot, hockey IQ, defensive positioning, defensive awareness, high motor, compete level, etc.
Also, how do you account for how size and strength will translate in a men's league, like if you think the a large prospect is using his size to dominate his peers, but won't be able to do so against NHL sized players?
When you're evaluating a prospect, what flaws do you think are most or least correctable? I mean, obviously lanky players will likely add size and strength but are unlikely to add height (unless you're a giraffe), but what about other aspects? Skating, top speed, first step, shot, vision, shot, hockey IQ, defensive positioning, defensive awareness, high motor, compete level, etc.
Also, how do you account for how size and strength will translate in a men's league, like if you think the a large prospect is using his size to dominate his peers, but won't be able to do so against NHL sized players?
There is more room for improvement for Sennecke when it comes to skating since he had just had his growth spurt recently and will likely add a lot more muscle. Nygard already seems to have a mans body, and while he may be a better skater now, I think Sennecke may project to have better skating once his body matures more. Right now I think Nygard only has average to slightly above average NHL skating at best. I don't think Esierman or Nygard are play drivers, they are more complementary players. Eiserman has an elite attribute and that's his shot which I think is better than Nygards, and that's saying a lot since Nygards shot is excellent. Eisermans hockey IQ scares me but his shot is already at an elite level even for even an NHL player. You give him PP time and play him with an elite play driver like Hughes and I think he may reach his potential as a 50 goal scorer if everything goes right. Worst case though is Eiserman completely busts while Nygard is likely to at least be a good 3rd liner. IMO, Eiserman has the best shot I've seen from a prospect since Mathews and even if he's somewhat of a liability at times, he may make up for it by scoring at an elite level one day. Don't be surprised to see NHL teams to bet on his potential as I believe there is a strong chance he gets drafted before Nygard.
It's fine to mention here, although you can always send me a direct message through the site. It's not like I'm patenting any of this stuff or getting paid for it. This is a forum where it's fun and educational to discuss the prospects, which is something we all appreciate your particular and notable talent for.
I think Shuravin finished the list of defensemen I felt I needed to get to, although if I have time before the draft maybe I'll try to dig up some deep sleepers like I used to when I had fewer personal responsibilities. To be honest, my rankings won't be as good as in the old days because I simply no longer have the hours to watch and write up 150 kids. I think you and @Guadana might be the only people who realize how many 100s of hours I spent writing up NHL draft prospects back in the day.
I have a list of 8 RWs and LWs and Cs I was fixing to write up in coming weeks. If you want to write up any of these guys, let me know because this is the group I'm currently studying up on:
RW: Greentree, Hemming, Jecho, Marques, Masse, O'Reilly, Pascarak, Ritchie.
LW: Artamonov, Basha, Connolly, Gridin, Howe, Kos, Surin, Vanacker
C: Beaudoin, Badnarik, Boisvert, Humphreys, Letourneau, Luchanko, Mustard, Pettersson
Also, if there are any standout D you think I missed, or any sleepers you think we should be talking about, that's always fun. If you want to write up goalies that's a plus because as we all should know by now I suck at goalies.
All I know is that they better not trade this pick as I've already invested way too much time reading up about the prospects that are a possibility at that spot.
evnted
Registered User
- Apr 14, 2016
- 816
- 2,026
thats great, appreciate the outline and kind words. i always enjoy reading everyones prospect reports in here so no need to steal any, plenty of other options i can take on instead. theres a couple names im inclined to think youd like that i dont think ive seen you write about yet, ill make sure to toss a message over at some point, too
- Dec 20, 2018
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Eiserman will be as close to a 50 goal scorer as Wahlstrom was.
I can see pitching Sennecke but just no Eiserman, Hughes won’t be able to carry him any better then he carry Holtz. The hockey gods help those that help themselves.
We already drafted one player for his shot and and our GM bitches about the rest of his game.
I’d take Catton over Eiserman easily if you want to take a swing on potential.
- Dec 1, 2019
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Just give me a tough SOB for Jack’s wing. Or somehow trade back and get a 2nd back and a tough 2-way bastard. That would make me and the duchess (@Guttersniped) happy.
The Norwegian Law Firm, Russian Cheryl Ladd or Kosta to Kosta as a consultation if possible. I know they need LD and Boom Boom Buium is a sexy player but I want a forward because that cupboard has cobwebs.
The Norwegian Law Firm, Russian Cheryl Ladd or Kosta to Kosta as a consultation if possible. I know they need LD and Boom Boom Buium is a sexy player but I want a forward because that cupboard has cobwebs.
I'd rather take Iginla, Sennecke, or Catton over Eiserman but I'd say Eiserman's goal scoring potential is greater than Holtz's ever was. And I would not write of Holtz (not that you did), I still think he can be a 30 goal scorer in the NHL. He has not reached the bust category yet. I guess it's the unpopular opinion but I'd rather take a player like Eiserman who has an elite attribute which his shot, over Helenius and Nygard personally although I do like both of those players as they are way easier to project to the NHL. Nygard definitely does have an excellent shot.
I have a few comments here, but first I want to say your input is very much appreciated. There are certainly reasons to like Sennecke, he's an exciting player. I rank him currently at #15, because he has tantalizing offensive skills and, as you say, he's still growing into his body and there's room for improvement.
But -- as this is what we do here, I guess -- there are several points here I'd be forced to dispute.
I think the place you're most wrong is with Nygard's skating. It's clearly a heck of a lot better than "slightly above average". We've seen him show separation speed at the international level against adults. He's not an elite skater, but in terms of power forwards he's going to be among the surest skaters in the NHL someday.
Secondly, "Play drivers" might be an over-rated sentiment when it comes to acquiring wingers for a top 6 on a team with two high-end play-driving centers in Hughes and Hischier and a high-end play driving winger in Bratt. Three "play drivers" on a line does not make a superior line to a line with two of them and a third guy who can play great defense, play physical, dig pucks out of dirty areas, and crash the net for screens and rebounds. That's the type of player Nygard should become, and when you factor in his speed and high-end shooting? Well, he's going to make a Hughes or Hischier that much better.
Lastly, I love Eiserman's shot too, but Bedard's is better. I'd rank Eiserman 3rd overall in pure shooting since Matthews was drafted.
To add on to what @Guadana was saying, I have Nygard ranked #7 and Sennecke #15. There are myriad reasons for this. Does Sennecke have more pure offensive upside? Sure, but that doesn't mean he'll score more in the NHL or be the better player. More than half of NHL goals are scored because of net-front chaos -- screens and rebounds. Nygard is the far superior player in that area and always will be. Sennecke is certainly talented, but his entire game will have to revamped at the NHL level. NHL defensemen are not going to be out skated by him too often -- Sennecke is a good skater, but not an elite one. NHL defensemen are not going to be out-deked by him too often -- Sennecke is a good puck-handler, but he's not Demidov. Certainly, Sennecke will have to take the puck to the net more at higher levels to maintain high point totals, and this is not his strongest offensive suit. And most importantly -- Sennecke is not going to play much at all in the NHL if he does not improve his compete level and 200-foot game.
In order to make the NHL, Nygard will not have to change much, he'll just have to improve at a normal, organic development arc. He's the best defensive winger int he 2024 class, his awareness and hockey IQ are more functional and fundamental, while Sennecke's is more creative. Nygard could be at least passable on an NHL 4th line right now, even though it probably would not be the best thing for his development. Sennecke is years and years away.
If Sennecke's skills and skating were elite across the board, I'd say he's worth the risk at #10. But they're not. At his ultimate ceiling, we're not talking Pastrnak or Draisaitl. When you combine that with the fact he comes with several concerns -- compete and 200-foot play most notably -- well, he's still a first round pick, I'm just not sure about the top 10.
With Nygard, I have him ranked at #7 because we're talking about a potential two-way, physical power forward with a high IQ and terrific skating, a guy who can be a big-time finisher both with his deadly shot and his propensity to create havoc in opposing creases.
Lastly, if we're talking about players hitting their ultimate talent ceilings, there is no clear cut way to define whether a player will or not do this without a crystal ball and Nostradamus on speed dial. But the foremost indicators historically have been compete level and hockey IQ. Nygard is elite in both these respects, whereas Sennecke is not.
In conclusion, I would say with great confidence that Nygard is better than Sennecke now, and I think he'll be better down the road.
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