Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Brodeur]

when is the draft lotto? usually its before the playoffs start no?

When TSN had the rights, they'd do the lottery right after the season was over. And then Sportsnet got the rights and they wanted to make the McDavid lottery a big deal so they waited until the first Saturday of the playoffs. Then 2016 was the disaster year where all seven Canadian teams missed the playoffs, so they waited to do the lottery until the second round of the playoffs (end of April) to give Canadian fans a reason to tune in.

They kept that timing for a couple more years and I think some scouts were voicing their complaints since the lottery was happening after the U18s. It seemed like a few scouts were annoyed that they would have watched a different player if their draft spot had been solidified ahead of time. I think Paul Castron went out of his way to mention that he spent a lot of time watching Cody Glass and he would have focused on somebody else if they had done the lottery earlier.

So they changed it back in 2019 to happen before the U18s. But then the pandemic happened and ESPN took over and suddenly we were back to an early May drawing.

2014: lottery (April 15), playoffs (April 16), U18s (April 17-27)

---- TSN to Sportsnet

2015: lottery (April 18), playoffs (April 15), U18s (April 16-26)
2016: lottery (April 30), playoffs (April 13), U18s (April 14-24)
2017: lottery (April 30), playoffs (April 12), U18s (April 13-23)
2018: lottery (April 29), playoffs (April 11), U18s (April 19-29)
2019: lottery (April 9), playoffs (April 10), U18s (April 18-28)

---- NBC to ESPN

2022: lottery (May 10), playoffs (May 2), U18s (April 23-May 1)
2023: lottery (May 9), playoffs (April 17), U18s (April 20-30)



Central released its final rankings. Always a little odd that they release it before the U18s when it's typical that a few players make a big final impression. But I have to remind myself that Central doesn't get a ton of funding from the league.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Top 10/11 pick this year is a very good pick if Fitz is reasonable. And I hope he is smart enough to save this pick.

I think if he wants to trade he has nice asset in Holtz. Top-11 pick is way to much for 1 year of future UFA goalie. If he will trade it for Markstrom he will be complete moron and he wasnt moron before. His trade politics was quite accurate or conservative.
Its really hard to even imagine who is our target and who will be available. But like I said - Fitz drafted for needs mostly, so I think he will take Helenius.

He's not trading it for one year of a goalie, he would get a premier goalie with a long term extension in place. Holtz isn't getting that deal done unfortunately and we already have evidence and a direct statement from Fitz that he's going big game hunting for a goalie.

If they get Markstrom then I don't think the top 10 pick is getting moved in that deal. That would be more like Holtz +.

If they want Saros, Ullmark, or the pipedream of Swayman with a long term extension, they will definitely have the pick on the table.

An extended Saros for 8th/9th/10th overall on draft day would not be a surprise.

 

[Brodeur]

If they get Markstrom then I don't think the top 10 pick is getting moved in that deal. That would be more like Holtz +.

Looking at Calgary's top 9 and they seem a little crowded for the moment since they have their own Holtz-esque prospect in Matt Coronato. I wonder if a lottery protected 2025 1st would be workable? Calgary has a bigger void on defense.

Sharangovich-Kadri-Kuzmenko
Huberdeau-Zary-Coronato
Coleman-Backlund-Mangiapane
Pospisil-Rooney-Duehr
Hunt-Pelletier

Weegar-Andersson
Okhotiuk-Miromanov
Hanley-Pachal
Solovyov

 

[Mgd31]

Is Jacob Markstrom with 2 years left at no retention worth a 2025 first round pick? I have a hard time believing that.

 

[Brodeur]

Is Jacob Markstrom with 2 years left at no retention worth a 2025 first round pick? I have a hard time believing that.

Definitely a tough one to gauge, closest comparable might be a 33/34 year old Ryan Miller going to St. Louis in 2014. That deal boiled down to a 2015 1st, Jaroslav Halak, and a B prospect (William Carrier),

Miller was an impending UFA and probably playing at a better level than Markstrom currently. It didn't work out for St. Louis but the first they ended up forking over was in the 20s and wasn't anything to lose sleep over.

If we were able to lottery protect the 2025 pick, then maybe that'd be easier to stomach. But I definitely understand why somebody would be squeamish.

 

[JrFischer54]

Top 10/11 pick this year is a very good pick if Fitz is reasonable. And I hope he is smart enough to save this pick.

I think if he wants to trade he has nice asset in Holtz. Top-11 pick is way to much for 1 year of future UFA goalie. If he will trade it for Markstrom he will be complete moron and he wasnt moron before. His trade politics was quite accurate or conservative.
Its really hard to even imagine who is our target and who will be available. But like I said - Fitz drafted for needs mostly, so I think he will take Helenius.

this pick should absolutely be in play. if it wins the lotto highly doubt the devils would shop it but i think they should.

 

[My3Sons]

Definitely a tough one to gauge, closest comparable might be a 33/34 year old Ryan Miller going to St. Louis in 2014. That deal boiled down to a 2015 1st, Jaroslav Halak, and a B prospect (William Carrier),

Miller was an impending UFA and probably playing at a better level than Markstrom currently. It didn't work out for St. Louis but the first they ended up forking over was in the 20s and wasn't anything to lose sleep over.

If we were able to lottery protect the 2025 pick, then maybe that'd be easier to stomach. But I definitely understand why somebody would be squeamish.

So it was Carrier Halak and a first? Is that better than Ryder Halak and a second?

 

[Guadana]

this pick should absolutely be in play. if it wins the lotto highly doubt the devils would shop it but i think they should.

No. If only we are talking about cost controlled young top-4 LHD who is very talented and already competent 200 foot player. And still its a big question mark.

 

[Unknown Caller]

No. If only we are talking about cost controlled young top-4 LHD who is very talented.

A very talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman goes for wayyy more than the 10th overall pick. Those guys almost never get moved to begin with.

The pick is going to get shopped.

 

[NJDfan86]

this pick should absolutely be in play. if it wins the lotto highly doubt the devils would shop it but i think they should.

There are less than 5 assets in all hockey that the #1 overall would be worth and they won't be moved so no point thinking that.

A very talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman goes for wayyy more than the 10th overall pick. Those guys almost never get moved to begin with.

The pick is going to get shopped.

Hanafin essentially went for a late 1st - he needed a new deal but that could be the difference between a 20+ pick or a #10

 

[Guadana]

He's not trading it for one year of a goalie, he would get a premier goalie with a long term extension in place. Holtz isn't getting that deal done unfortunately and we already have evidence and a direct statement from Fitz that he's going big game hunting for a goalie.

If they get Markstrom then I don't think the top 10 pick is getting moved in that deal. That would be more like Holtz +.

If they want Saros, Ullmark, or the pipedream of Swayman with a long term extension, they will definitely have the pick on the table.

An extended Saros for 8th/9th/10th overall on draft day would not be a surprise.

Who? Ullmark? How premier he was in Buffalo or will be away from Boston? Premier 35-40 games?
Saros? Better example, but he is one year away from UFA. Not RFA. All of this examples were for RFA players and its a reason why.

Its a stupid trade. Ullmark will be 32 from the start of the new deal, Saros will be 30. Both are available on the deadline or at least on the market. Without stupidly losing of top ten pick like it was in other cases. Only Fiala looks like a fair deal in the end. Others are laughable.

A very talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman goes for wayyy more than the 10th overall pick. Those guys almost never get moved to begin with.

The pick is going to get shopped.

Like other players who were mentioned before. Fiala was dealt for pick and good prospect. Debrincat was dealt for 1, 2+ picks. Chychrun etc. Overall there were different cases. I never told that im talking about 1 on 1 trade. Do not try to invent a claim to something that was not stated initially.

 

[Guadana]

Is Jacob Markstrom with 2 years left at no retention worth a 2025 first round pick? I have a hard time believing that.

He was below 90% goalie last season, he is below 90% goalie last two months. He will be 34 yo. He doesnt deserve 1st round pick. Especially for the team that is drafting 10 OA this year.

 

[Mgd31]

He was below 90% goalie last season, he is below 90% goalie last two months. He will be 34 yo. He doesnt deserve 1st round pick. Especially for the team that is drafting 10 OA this year.

Yea I don't even think he is a worth a late first round pick either.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

There's a possibility Markstrom at full cap hit will be acquired by NJ for very little. He was quite bad after the failed acquisition in-season, has a NMC, and 12 million on the books going forward. NJ just made its full court press for Markstrom at one of the worst times, as Calgary was on a mini hot streak and their FO was terrified of what the team looked like with Wolf/Vladar trading starts going forward playing the team out of playoff contention.

The offseason will enable Calgary to find an acceptable veteran to pair with those two or possibly eject Vladar from the rotation and make them more comfortable to move Markstrom.

It's still a seller's market for goaltending but at least there's a market. Let this lesson be learned by the FO there's no goalie market in season, and the market at the deadline is for tainted goods only.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Like other players who were mentioned before. Fiala was dealt for pick and good prospect. Debrincat was dealt for 1, 2+ picks. Chychrun etc. Overall there were different cases. I never told that im talking about 1 on 1 trade. Do not try to invent a claim to something that was not stated initially.

Fiala and Debrincat are wingers and were dealt primarily for contract related reasons. That's not the same as a young talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman like you said.

You're also massively overrating the value of the 10th overall pick. I would absolutely move it for Saros with an extension. It's incredibly rare to come up with a true foundational piece from that spot.

The pick is very likely going to get moved given where the Devils are in Hischier/Hughes core's career timeline.

10th overall pick history:

 

[Guadana]

Fiala and Debrincat are wingers and were dealt primarily for contract related reasons. That's not the same as a young talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman like you said.

Oh, God, please stop.

You're also massively overrating the value of the 10th overall pick.

No.

I would absolutely move it for Saros with an extension.

No.

It's incredibly rare to come up with a true foundational piece from that spot.

You have free option to sign him on the market. Or trade him for cheaper compensation on the deadline.

10th overall pick history:

View attachment 852864

Nice list, especially when the closer we get to today.

 

[Guadana]

BUT!

If Fitz want to draft Eiserman, its better to trade this pick for Saros.

 

[JrFischer54]

No. If only we are talking about cost controlled young top-4 LHD who is very talented and already competent 200 foot player. And still its a big question mark.

the devils dont need another unknown at 10 middling around the lineup for a couple years before we know what we got. this team has a window now they need to improve the lineup in oct and trading this pick will go a long way in doing that. esp if it wins the lotto now i admit i dontt know if any of the top 3 guys are generational talents or just mid but outside of generational talents 1-3 i still shop the pick hard if they win the draft.

 

[Brodeur]

Fiala and Debrincat are wingers and were dealt primarily for contract related reasons. That's not the same as a young talented cost controlled top 4 defenseman like you said.

You're also massively overrating the value of the 10th overall pick. I would absolutely move it for Saros with an extension. It's incredibly rare to come up with a true foundational piece from that spot.

The pick is very likely going to get moved given where the Devils are in Hischier/Hughes core's career timeline.

10th overall pick history:

View attachment 852864

I do like the top dozen or so guys this year. Reminds me a bit of 2010/2012 where the gap between say #3/4 to #9/10 doesn't appear as large as other years.

Couple anecdotes about some of those 10th overalls:

2007: Florida was all set to take Logan Couture. They had done a lot of background work on him since he had an injury history. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Couture's junior club (Ottawa 67's) kept a close relationship with San Jose GM (and 67's alum) Doug Wilson and let him know about Florida. On the day of the draft, San Jose traded for pick #13 but knew they had to leapfrog Florida to get Couture. Luckily for them, St. Louis was looking to move down from #9 after unsuccessfully trying to trade up for Jakub Voracek.

2010: I attended that draft in LA and was horrified when Cam Fowler (and Brandon Gormley) dropped to the Rangers at #10. I jumped out of my seat when they announced Dylan McIlrath as their pick. Everybody around me was initially puzzled why a guy in a Devils jersey was cheering a Rangers pick. I forget how close the Rangers were to taking Vladimir Tarasenko or if the Russian factor scared them off.

2012: Filip Forsberg curiously slipped out of the top 10 that year. Speaking of junior ties, Steve Yzerman went to his 'alma mater' to take Slater Koekkoek who missed most of that year due to injury.

2016: Charlie McAvoy (TSN #14) and Jakob Chychrun (TSN #13) were on board.

2017: Martin Necas (TSN #11) and Nick Suzuki (TSN #12) were also available.

2018: Edmonton apparently was going to take Ty Smith until Evan Bouchard unexpectedly slipped a couple spots.

2019: Attended that draft and a local Vancouver TV crew asked me who I'd take with the Canucks pick at #10. I said Matt Boldy would look fantastic next to Elias Pettersson.

2021: Ottawa went way off the board on Boucher. Pretty sure everybody involved with that decision has been sacked. I think I had them taking Jesper Wallstedt in my mock draft that year. They were also in a tough spot since there seemed to be a top tier of 9 players plus 2 goalies and they were picking 10th. The 9 guys went as expected and then they bypassed the goalies.

 

[JrFischer54]

what an absolute shame there isn't a goalie in the range of our pick boy would that really just solve a lot of issues. the one year we have a nice pick and a huge need

 

[NJDfan86]

what an absolute shame there isn't a goalie in the range of our pick boy would that really just solve a lot of issues. the one year we have a nice pick and a huge need

Sarcasm?

 

[Guadana]

the devils dont need another unknown at 10 middling around the lineup for a couple years before we know what we got. this team has a window now they need to improve the lineup in oct and trading this pick will go a long way in doing that. esp if it wins the lotto now i admit i dontt know if any of the top 3 guys are generational talents or just mid but outside of generational talents 1-3 i still shop the pick hard if they win the draft.

Great. Go and sign free agent. Wasting top level prospects is a wrong management. There are a couple of examples before. Markstrom is cheap in trade, enough of average goaltenders, Ullmark and Saros will be available for free after one year. Skjei is on the market, Pesche, Guenztel, Reinhart, Teravainen, Monahan, Tarasenko, etc tonns of players.
Other than that - its not a first time about trading picks, we need now etc. I dont care. If you are not study prospects you can go study prospects.
Fitz shouldnt made bad decision because he(and some fans) cant wait two years and wants to trade huge piece for players of the level he can sign from the market for free. Or he is a bad manager for this team. Im not asking from you to be good manager, but Im asking it from Fitz.

 

[JrFischer54]

Great. Go and sign free agent. Wasting top level prospects is a wrong management. There are a couple of examples before. Markstrom is cheap in trade, enough of average goaltenders, Ullmark and Saros will be available for free after one year. Skjei is on the market, Pesche, Guenztel, Reinhart, Teravainen, Monahan, Tarasenko, etc tonns of players.
Other than that - its not a first time about trading picks, we need now etc. I dont care. If you are not study prospects you can go study prospects.
Fitz shouldnt made bad decision because he(and some fans) cant wait two years and wants to trade huge piece for players of the level he can sign from the market for free. Or he is a bad manager for this team. Im not asking from you to be good manager, but Im asking it from Fitz.

thats great they can just go sign whoever they want? like the player doesn't have to want to sign here? there aren't bidding wars for players? players don't resign before they hit ufa? phew ok i didn't know this then yeah def keep the pick.

Sarcasm?

no legit that kid askrov by the preds was drafted around 10 no? if there was a similar projected goalie near 10 i'm def down

 

[NJDfan86]

thats great they can just go sign whoever they want? like the player doesn't have to want to sign here? there aren't bidding wars for players? players don't resign before they hit ufa? phew ok i didn't know this then yeah def keep the pick.


no legit that kid askrov by the preds was drafted around 10 no? if there was a similar projected goalie near 10 i'm def down

It’s that your usual point is that these kids don’t contribute right away, and goalies are generally the longest wait. Askarov was drafted in 2020 - the same year as Dawson Mercer who has 3 full years of NHL play already.

 

[Guadana]

thats great they can just go sign whoever they want? like the player doesn't have to want to sign here? there aren't bidding wars for players? players don't resign before they hit ufa? phew ok i didn't know this then yeah def keep the pick.

Yes. Cap isnt the problem, young and talented players can sign cheap short term bridge deals (say hello to Bratt). And some of free agents will want to sign short term deals if they will have opportunity to play with Jack or Nico and gain their value on the markets next years.
Boston will not sign Ullmark. They have Swayman. Nashville will not sign Saros or if they will(like wpg did with Hellebyuck), you have no chance to trade him, only for overprice like Casey/Gritsyuk + 1st.

And this team isnt deep enough to waste their assets who will be core players for a long time

because

Top level talents for cheap is the exactly right way to make contender much better. This is the first and most important commandment.