Double-Shift Lasse
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GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
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This may be a little off topic but I'm going there anyway. Has anyone ever questioned how Jack Johnson can be so hated by the Analytics guys and so loved by GM's and not just any GM's but successful GM's.
Jack was drafted by Jim Rutherford in Carolina and later with Pitt he traded to get him back. Rutherford has won 3 Stanley Cups.
Dean Lombardi traded to get Jack in LA. He was traded to Columbus for Jeff Carter because Lombardi had several good dmen and needed offense but Lombardi must have thought highly of him to trade for Jack in the first place. Lombardi won 2 Stanley Cups.
Brian Burke put Jack on a US Olympic Team which is basically declaring him one of the top 8 US defensemen. He was also considered a lock for the next US Olympic Team but was famously left off at the end by Poile and Burke but that still means they considered him the 9th or 10th best US born defenseman at the time. Burke won a Stanley Cup in Anaheim and Poile had a long successful run in Nashville.
Joe Sakic brought him to Colorado where Jack and Joe won a Stanley Cup. Even this year at age 37 Jack played 80 games for Colorado and Colorado isn't some scrub team like the Jackets, they had 107 points this year. Admittedly, Jack isn't playing a starring role anymore but he is 37.
Jack has played nearly 1200 NHL games. GM's that put him on their teams have won at least 7 Stanley Cups. If I were an Analytics guy I would be questioning is it possible Jack brings some value that my model isn't fully recognizing? Am I really more right about this guy than all those successful GM's? If I were the scout that recommended Jack #3 I don't think I would apologize for that ranking. I bet not many of this years picks play 1200 NHL games. I'm not saying Jack is going in the Hall of Fame or anything but alot of players would love to have his career.
Anyway, sorry for being off topic and it's not that I am a Jack Johnson fan but I have never understood how the analytics community squares Jack's success and all the successful GM's that believed in him with their considering him the poster boy for bad hockey players. Note I am not trying to pick on you or your analysis, it's just something I've always wondered and your post kind of triggered me to spill my thoughts.
Disclaimer: my career recap of Jack Johnson is from memory so hopefully it is all factually correct.
Back to the regularly scheduled discussion of the 4th pick.
I really appreciate your list. It is clearly original work. So many guys take the consensus list, make one or two changes and call it their ranking and post it on some website. I'd be happy with the Jackets getting any of the top 4 on your list assuming Lindstrom's back is okay.
Btw, today is a new day and today I am cooling on Silayev and feeling much more Zeev Buium. I don't like Silayev having 2 more years in Russia and Buium did look the best to me of the defensemen I got to see play. He was terrific in the Frozen Four if he was a little bigger he would be an absolute no brainer.
Some GMs surely liked JJ more than others, I don't see those acquisitions as endorsing how high he was drafted.
For Carolina, LA, and Columbus when he was acquired, JJ was a developing young player who had value for what he could be someday. He never quite got there. He had two years I liked on the shutdown pair with Savard. They were really good.
The next season he was a #6D, and even healthy scratched for us in the playoffs. And he's been a #6D ever since.
Rutherford gave him another big contract, but then it was Rutherford who bought him out two years later.
Brian Burke sure thought he was good though. And I didn't think it's crazy to have JJ play a role on Team USA, he had his moments.
I appreciate your response. I can see a strong case that he wasn't the home run pick you hope for at number 3 overall and he did play 3rd pair for a large segment of his career. I think would agree he wasn't a bust either.
I still can't quite square how many good GM's think he is a decent player/role player/depth player when the analytics guys talk like he is the worst player ever to lace them up in the NHL.
Thanks for the discussion.
KJ Dangler
Registered User
So , getting back to our pick at 4 … do we agree that if Demidov is available at 4 , you have to take him ? I get it , we need a center , and I’ve always beat drum all things similar you gotta take the center . But let’s be honest , Lindstrom isn’t remotely as good as Demidov . Aside from Lindstrom having the back issue , which I’m willing to trust we know that won’t be an issue , Lindstrom had one half of a really good season . He wasn’t great or even a standout last year .. when I looked , I think he was .6 points per game last year . Where is everyone at regarding this pick ?
Double-Shift Lasse
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I think there's nothing at fault with Demidov at 4. He's incredibly gifted, with the kind of upside you want from a player selected that high in the draft.
What I'm about to suggest is not to diminish Demidov, or even to suggest we shouldn't draft him is he's available.
Where I go with Lindstrom is the potential wrecking ball of physicality. I'm going to guess that's the thing with a lot of folks. Jackets just don't have it among the top young players. Even the guys with size don't bring that component. I get the same from Iginla.
I know what the counters are. I don't need to be "convinced" or "reminded". I'm just saying it's tantalizing.
All of this is why I haven't really settled on a guy. I'm going to have to get behind whichever anyway.
KJ Dangler
Registered User
That’s fair .. my other concern with Lindstrom .. he’s a lot like Fantilli .. not known to be a great playmaker , beats people with speed and shot .. Does that makeup of your 2 centers concern you ? These are all things im wrestling with , trying to convince myself if we pick Lindstrom , it was a smart pick, if that makes sense ? Also , I think with Demidov size , that he could easily be a center in the NHL . Really wish we developed KJ correctly and if Jarmo thought he was a center , which he’s still listed as on Bluejackets roster , that they let him play that at the AHL level and develop into
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
I appreciate you wanting to have some direct discussion on the topic instead of the scattershot stuff we've had. But I am concerned and am not concerned simultaneously about all the things you ask about. I overthink everything and I'm trying not to in this case. I could literally type a post right now explaining why any one of 5-6 guys in THE PICK. Problem is, I believe every one of them.
In short, my answer to your original question of where everyone is at on this pick is that I am everywhere. I have no staked-out territory. I was just trying to explain why.
Xoggz22
Registered User
I won't complain if we take Demidov. His offensive skill is so tantalizing...however, I've watched more and more of his clips and I have some concerns about his skating. Looks like a very wide base and weak ankles. Not very smooth and not great on his edges. I'm probably overboard on the concern but, to me, I've seen more players struggle to reach close to their potential at the NHL level when they aren't good enough skaters. Maybe I'm just not seeing the best of him, but it's a real concern for me. I still lean with Lindstrom and, as you all know by now, I'm still a big Levshunov fan. I don't think he has trouble thinking the game, Again, just me...
It's one year I don't think I'll be upset with whomever they pick, but I would really like another big, physical, gifted skating center to roll out there with Fantilli. If his medicals check out, I'd have such a hard time passing on Lindstrom at #4
Setting aside injury concerns I would be really torn between Demidov and Lindstrom at 4. Lindstrom had 46 points and 27 goals in just 32 games last year. The previous year he was closer to .6 points per game.
big guys with sandpaper are easy to find like Olivier. But big guys with sandpaper that can really skate and have top 6 skill and play center are tough to find so Lindstrom would be great player to get. We have needed impact Centers forever so I would be happy with Lindstrom
On the other hand if Demidov really has a chance to be a game breaker those guys are tough to get too. Some compare him to Kucherov.
It’s a wishy washy position to take but I guess we would do well to take either of them.
big guys with sandpaper are easy to find like Olivier. But big guys with sandpaper that can really skate and have top 6 skill and play center are tough to find so Lindstrom would be great player to get. We have needed impact Centers forever so I would be happy with Lindstrom
On the other hand if Demidov really has a chance to be a game breaker those guys are tough to get too. Some compare him to Kucherov.
It’s a wishy washy position to take but I guess we would do well to take either of them.
CBJWerenski8
Rest in Peace Johnny
- Jun 13, 2009
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Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
*soap box*
Not taking a hard and fast position on something you don’t have to is not being wishy washy.
*end soap box*
Just thinking when we have taken highly skilled Russian wingers at the top of the draft like Zherdev and Filatov it hasn’t really worked out.
On the other hand when we have taken highly skilled big Centers at the top of the draft like Joey and PLD that has exactly turned out as expected either.
Sigh. Someday it has to work out as hoped.
On the other hand when we have taken highly skilled big Centers at the top of the draft like Joey and PLD that has exactly turned out as expected either.
Sigh. Someday it has to work out as hoped.
lol fair enough.
I think Demidov goes to Chicago, the talent is too high imo.
If the question is between Lindstrom and Demidov, I feel like this is very unlikely, I still take Demidov.
I can understand the allure of Lindstrom but I'm not convinced the hockey IQ is all that high. Even more so, I'm not convinced this team could develop him to his fullest with how raw he is. No doubt there's a ton of potential. Add in that back concerns and I'll be shocked if he's not available to be picked by us.
I'm not against trading back and taking Catton if the offer is rich enough and someone really wants Lindstrom.
For me there's 6 players that could go from 4-10 in ANY order depending on the team.
If the question is between Lindstrom and Demidov, I feel like this is very unlikely, I still take Demidov.
I can understand the allure of Lindstrom but I'm not convinced the hockey IQ is all that high. Even more so, I'm not convinced this team could develop him to his fullest with how raw he is. No doubt there's a ton of potential. Add in that back concerns and I'll be shocked if he's not available to be picked by us.
I'm not against trading back and taking Catton if the offer is rich enough and someone really wants Lindstrom.
For me there's 6 players that could go from 4-10 in ANY order depending on the team.
Gimme Demidov, final answer
If he's not there. I have to flip a coin between Lindstrom and Sennecke. I think Sennecke could play center just as easily a 1/2 of Fantilli/Sennecke or them on the same line could be devastating.
If he's not there. I have to flip a coin between Lindstrom and Sennecke. I think Sennecke could play center just as easily a 1/2 of Fantilli/Sennecke or them on the same line could be devastating.
Sennecke is not a top 5 player and a lot of his hype is off potential - very boom or bust. I would prefer Demidov, then Lindstrom, then one of the top 3 D, then JI, then Sennecke.
I actually marvel at how polished Lindstrom is in so many ways. He has the power forward tactics already nailed down, and so many good details in his game. It seems like the skills coaches he works with are already great for him.
Usually when drafting a power forward, the discussion is about teaching them the tactics to use their frame and win battles, or the thinking is that we can push them to be mean and imposing. Lindstrom is already there. He was already one of the top few players in his league, at least when he played.
I love when people talk in absolutes about kids at the draft. We'll see in 5 years.
Not in absolutes but more of a boom or bust. Just because you like him doesn’t mean everyone else does. We all can have our opinions and be okay.
Doggy
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2011
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Reading the comments about "Boom or Bust", absolutes, etc had me thinking about 2016 when we had the #3OA pick and the assumption was it goes Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi.
I went back to read some of our draft thread...you know...for shiggles. Comments about Puljujarvi being exactly what we need, that he has proven himself against men, most well rounded player in the draft, etc etc etc. Of course hindsight is 20-20...what a mistake that would have been.
NotWendell said that Tkachuk was exactly what we needed and suggested he should be the pick at #3 and someone basically suggested Tkachuk is kinda like Rychel. Another suggested Tkachuk isn't what we need because we already have Josh Anderson.
In the end none its just a game, just a draft, none of us have a say in what the organization does and...none of us really know anything. It's all an educated guess and much of it based on other talking heads reports or from watching highlight videos. If it was absolutes, Cam Atkinson would not have been a 6th round pick or Pavelski a 7th round pick or Nikita Filatov a #6OA. I love the banter back and forth and feel more knowledgeable for it but in the end CBJx614 is right...it's amusing to hear people speak in absolutes.
I went back to read some of our draft thread...you know...for shiggles. Comments about Puljujarvi being exactly what we need, that he has proven himself against men, most well rounded player in the draft, etc etc etc. Of course hindsight is 20-20...what a mistake that would have been.
NotWendell said that Tkachuk was exactly what we needed and suggested he should be the pick at #3 and someone basically suggested Tkachuk is kinda like Rychel. Another suggested Tkachuk isn't what we need because we already have Josh Anderson.
In the end none its just a game, just a draft, none of us have a say in what the organization does and...none of us really know anything. It's all an educated guess and much of it based on other talking heads reports or from watching highlight videos. If it was absolutes, Cam Atkinson would not have been a 6th round pick or Pavelski a 7th round pick or Nikita Filatov a #6OA. I love the banter back and forth and feel more knowledgeable for it but in the end CBJx614 is right...it's amusing to hear people speak in absolutes.
I like the potential of both Lindstrom and Sennecke, but if choosing between the two I would take the guy who has the high ceiling and no back injury.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
As one of the ones who was pushing for Puljujarvi, that's my point exactly. I was so sure of Puljujarvi... And in 2015 I thought we we're missing out because we settled for Z and couldn't draft Hanifin and 2012 we got screwed over because of the lottery and missed out on the next Ovi in Yakupov.
The point is, nobody really knows shit. Yeah there might be one or two can't miss guys but if we're picking in the top 5, I want us to go for the kid who our scouts think is the best player. I'll be happy with just about any of the options tbh.
I just think that Demidov will likely be gone, and while I really like Lindstrom, even if the doctors have cleared him, there's ALWAYS a chance something happens( yes I know I'm not a doctor or anything close) and while I think Cayden is a safer bet to be a top 6 NHLer, I think Sennecke has a higher ceiling and is more likely to hit it.
But that's just my opinion and given my history I'm probably wrong
As I've stated a few times, I'm just glad I'm not the one who has to make a decision because there's a chance you're gonna miss out on a stud, so you better make sure you make the right pick.
Frostybrew
Registered User
My updated top 10
I think my top 3 will be gone by pick 4 so imo Zeev Buium is best player available. I also think 4 through 10 are very close and any of them could go at pick 4. I would trade down if possible and get an extra pick preferably another 1st rounder.
I think my top 3 will be gone by pick 4 so imo Zeev Buium is best player available. I also think 4 through 10 are very close and any of them could go at pick 4. I would trade down if possible and get an extra pick preferably another 1st rounder.
- Macklin Celebrini - C
- Ivan Demidov - RW
- Artyom Levshunov - D
- Zeev Buium - D
- Anton Silayev - D
- Tij Iginla - C
- Beckett Sennecke - RW
- Zayne Parekh - D
- Sam Dickinson - D
- Cayden Lindstrom - C
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