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GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

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Doggy said:
I know I am concerned about his back issues. I don't want another Ryan Murray...especially with a #4OA pick. I am also fine with Buium at #4 but wonder if we could be getting too much redundancy on the back end.
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This is not specifically directed at you, but I thought it would fit here as a public announcement...

You can tell we're CBJ fans. We're still thinking about a current draft pick as someone that will impact the team NOW. Any pick isn't going to be on the team next season and likely the season after that. We're talking about players 3 or more years Duran the road. This team can, and likely will, change a lot in that time. First round picks are the most likely to succeed, but they still take time to develop and become impact players. We don't know IF they will develop. You sure hope so at 4OA, but no guarantee. Don't draft for today, draft with your eyes 3 years down the road and what do you foresee...

As fans I think we need to stop thinking about what this pick does for us today with the prospect pool. Today really matters little. Just pray whomever they pick is an impact player in the near future, just not immediately.
 
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Xoggz22 said:
This is not specifically directed at you, but I thought it would fit here as a public announcement...

You can tell we're CBJ fans. We're still thinking about a curvy draft pick as someone that will impact the team NOW. Any pick isn't going to be on the team next season and likely the season after that. We're talking about players 3 or more years Duran the road. This team can, and likely will, change a lot in that time. First round picks are the most likely to succeed, but they still take time to develop and become impact players. We don't know IF they still develop. You sure hope so at 4OA, but no guarantee. Don't draft for today, draft with your eyes 3 years down the road and what do you foresee...

As fans I think we need to stop thinking about what this pick does for us today with the prospect pool. Today really matters little. Just pray whomever they pick is an impact player in the near future, just not immediately.
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Agree. And the reason Columbus has stayed mired in the middle at best and bottom at worst is that most of their top picks have never developed into impact players. Some of them have been pretty good. But it is hard to find many stars in their draft classes despite some draft day excitement.
 
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CalBuckeyeRob said:
Agree. And the reason Columbus has stayed mired in the middle at best and bottom at worst is that most of their top picks have never developed into impact players. Some of them have been pretty good. But it is hard to find many stars in their draft classes despite some draft day excitement.
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Fun fact: Alexander Wennberg was one of the better draft picks in the first 20 years of the CBJ history. We have had so many Sonny Milano, Cody Goloubef, Gilbert Brule, Liam Foudy, Kerby Rychel, Paul Bittner type picks. No wonder we were excited about Bemstrom for as long as we were.
 
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And you didn’t even mention Alexander Picard a top 10 pick that never had an NHL goal. I understand though I try to forget him too
 
Based on a quick check, I only believe 3 Columbus draft picks have ever received an MVP vote for any team--Rick Nash, Cam Atkinson and Steve Mason. In a typical season 15-20 players get at least a 5th place vote so that total is not impressive.
 
Injuries had a lot to do with the failure of Alex Picard. He had a pretty significant knee injury tearing ligaments in an AHL playoff game that he never recovered from. He wasn't all that swift of a skater before that and after the injury was even slower. So, it's difficult to say if he was or wasn't a good pick - he wasn't the same player after that injury.

Tossing recent draft picks into AHL playoff games seems like a good idea to get them experience, but there is the potential for injuries. Not sending Adam Fantilli to Cleveland for the playoff run might have actually been a good idea considering another injury could ruin his recovery.

Probably drafting Brule in 2005 and passing over Kopitar, Setoguchi, Marc Staal, Cogliano, or Oshie, is the biggest hit to the franchise since there was the opportunity to draft someone who could have been a far bigger impact player. The 2004 draft was pretty weak and the injury to Picard makes it difficult to tell if they did actually make the wrong decision.

Drafting Brule over Kopitar seemed like a no-brainer in 2005 though. One was an WHL star and the other was some Slovenian playing for a crappy Södertälje team in Sweden mainly for their junior team and putting up zero points in 15 games playing in the Swedish Elite League. Fans would have rioted if Kopitar was picked over Brule. It's not like Kopitar was playing amazing - there were flashes but he was behind Brule. It's just he was earlier in his development and NHL scouts could have felt that someone like Kopitar was scouted by all the Swedish teams and only ended up in Södertälje so thus the bigger Swedish teams' scouts passed on him. (That was definitely a factor for David Pastrnak as well).

It's like now saying picking Michael Brandsegg-Nygård over Cayden Lindstrom.
 
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In 04 we came in with the 4th pick and traded with Carolina down to 8th to draft Picard (he scored more goals than Ovechkin this season - Doug MacLean). His injuries and Doug telling him he needed to check to make it in the NHL is what sunk him.

Brule also had a major injury after getting drafted that derailed his career.
 
CBJWerenski8 said:
I don’t think Brule over Kopitar was a “no brainer” considering MacLean ignored his own head scout and scouts consensus to pick Brule.
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There were scouts on other teams not as convinced about Kopitar, so Doug's decision there wasn't as crazy as it seems now. Doug picked the smaller, faster player who was racking up points in the WHL over a bigger, slower more physical player who struggled in the SEL (during the lockout).

Brule was a known player who everyone was aware of what he could do in the WHL and for Canadian Junior Teams. And wasn't a bad pick. Kopitar was far more of a "what if" and if he had been smaller, he wouldn't have been drafted as high. His skating really wasn't the best and scouts like how physical he was playing. It could have looked like taking a risk on a longshot from a country who didn't have any track record of producing NHLers playing for a Swedish team that's known for having issues.

It's a good example of how difficult it is to determine who the best player is especially when players are at different levels. The pandemic is still impacting players who didn't have the chance to leave home and go play elsewhere or attend camps in the summer.

Kopitar's skating got a lot better after his draft year and that's one of those things that you never know how much it can improve. Picard's skating was very unusual and perhaps scouts thought his skating could be fixed with more coaching. But you'd think players in the CHL would have had power skating coaching already. Kopitar was exactly the type of player who was able to benefit from getting better first step quickness to progress into elite player, but I can see how drafting a player who already has the skating skills would be less of a risk. But then, if scouts want to argue that a player can improve drastically because the coaching they've received so far is subpar... not sure that really entirely is a good argument that the player is worth an top 10 draft pick.

What's weird is the lack of scouting of Södertälje actually benefited Kopitar. Even though it's outside of Stockholm, for some reason scouts have never gone out there very much. I know someone whose cousin was on the U18 team with Kopitar and also Carl Hagelin who ended up going to the U of M and drafted in the later rounds. They really didn't get many scouts paying attention to anyone there. Kopitar's play in international tournaments was what really got him far more attention than times he was struggling some in Sweden. Now with the nitpicking of video coverage of players, it might impact a player whose skating isn't great more.
 
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Taking Brule over Kopitar, if he did overrule scouts, is definitely a mistake on Doug’s part. However, the egregious issue was more likely how Brule’s development was handled. Also a mistake on Doug’s part based on what I’ve read. Not that this is news to anybody but he certainly made a lot of mistakes.
 
NHL teams would benefit from a change that pushed the draft age to 20. An 18 year old hockey player has major physical changes that are likely to occur and they are going to start playing more against other big guys. On the plus side, that uncertainty makes it far more likely that some random 5th round pick from Europe will become a star.
 
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Pronman’s D Prospects Rankings today:​

Tier 1​

  1. Artyom Levshunov, Michigan State

Tier 2​

  1. Carter Yakemchuk, Calgary
  2. Anton Silayev, Torpedo
  3. Zeev Buium, Denver

Tier 3​

  1. Zayne Parekh, Saginaw
  2. Sam Dickinson, London
 
CalBuckeyeRob said:
NHL teams would benefit from a change that pushed the draft age to 20. An 18 year old hockey player has major physical changes that are likely to occur and they are going to start playing more against other big guys. On the plus side, that uncertainty makes it far more likely that some random 5th round pick from Europe will become a star.
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I like that draft picks arent slam dunks tbh. Also, would be tragic to lose years of the top players' careers. That's the main reason I hated it when a some of years ago there was rumors that some want to move it to 19 years.

Dunno if there is some kind of nice middle ground out there. Not be a fan of an expectional player system. That'd just result in everyone complaining about every borderline decision.

Players signing themselves up for draft with some kind of contract system that rewards the player if he makes the NHL relatively after the sign up? Maybe that'd encourage players to only sign up when they're NHL ready.
 
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MoeBartoli said:

Pronman’s D Prospects Rankings today:​

Tier 1​

  1. Artyom Levshunov, Michigan State

Tier 2​

  1. Carter Yakemchuk, Calgary
  2. Anton Silayev, Torpedo
  3. Zeev Buium, Denver

Tier 3​

  1. Zayne Parekh, Saginaw
  2. Sam Dickinson, London
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Good, the Ducks can go ahead and take Levshunov. Thanks in advance.
 
DoingItCoolKiwi said:
I like that draft picks arent slam dunks tbh. Also, would be tragic to lose years of the top players' careers. That's the main reason I hated it when a some of years ago there was rumors that some want to move it to 19 years.

Dunno if there is some kind of nice middle ground out there. Not be a fan of an expectional player system. That'd just result in everyone complaining about every borderline decision.

Players signing themselves up for draft with some kind of contract system that rewards the player if he makes the NHL relatively after the sign up? Maybe that'd encourage players to only sign up when they're NHL ready.
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Very few players do a thing that matters in the NHL at 18 and 19. Sillinger made it at 18. Now that he is 3 years in, how much better do we think he is for the experience of playing immediately? I also think there is a tendency for bad teams to rush prospects because your team is losing and fans want to see the new shiny toy hoping he will fix it.
 
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AnonCommentary said:
Unrelated to Buium - I’m new here but I was on Twitter or X whatever you want to call it. That same account said the worst that Silayev can become is a lefty Erik Gudbranson. Was really bizarre.
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Welcome!

Silayev's floor being Gudbranson level sounds about right to me. My objection to him is that I don't think his ceiling is much above that. Some people think he has high upside but I don't see any basis for that.
 
CalBuckeyeRob said:
Very few players do a thing that matters in the NHL at 18 and 19. Sillinger made it at 18. Now that he is 3 years in, how much better do we think he is for the experience of playing immediately? I also think there is a tendency for bad teams to rush prospects because your team is losing and fans want to see the new shiny toy hoping he will fix it.
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Very few yeah, but shortening your McDavids and Bedards careers would be a huge disservice for hockey fans. And those type of players are the most important ones for the game.
 
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Honestly - I didn't see this team to be picking in the top 5 again this year. So with that said, I can say after Celebrini it's a mishmash of players with warts. Honestly I don't have a favorite right now. I thought maybe Lidstrom but the health issues (especially back) are very concerning. Black Book will be out next week so that will help somewhat and testing at the combine although Lidstrom is abstaining from a lot of the testing (red flag).

1. Lidstrom - the spectre of health issues (back????)
2. Catton - Smallish, strength and does his game translate (seems like JG type of player but at center??), health
3. Demidov - small, skating style, strength (seems like a KJ type of player), defensive zone awareness
4. Levshunov - defensive decision making (shouldn't this be a strength?)
5. Buium - Physicality, Puck battles(we have this type of player in spades on the current roster)
6. Parekh - Pace (easier to have them slow down then have to kick them in the ass), Defensive Zone Play
 
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