NHL Entry Draft 2024 NHL Draft Talk

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[Golden_Jet]

I think that quote was more referring to the criticism that Boucher was ranked as a late 1st or early 2nd, and the Senators should have traded down to get him.

He was referring to the intel that at least one other team (rumoured as NYR at 16) were going to select him high. So there wasn't a realistic chance to trade back and get him.

In that respect, the quote is perfectly reasonable. Most fans tend to have a confirmation bias towards players who were ranked high earlier in the process (or for a longer time) and hate when their team selects a riser or goes off the board because they both have a bias towards the players they read about more, but they also have a false perception that trading down and getting your guy works like a PS3 NHL game where the rankings are static.

Teams can usually only trade down when they have wide tiers of players who offer a similar result. Like, a team really needing a puck moving LHD, and there are 3 of them on the board, and half of the next five teams are stacked at D. Yes, they could move down a few spots and still get one of their guys.

Anaheim missed on Karlsson in 2008 because they moved down. If you go by consensus, Ottawa reached on Karlsson. The reality is that more than one team had him high.

Although, it's debatable how high Anaheim in particular were on Karlsson, they missed him by trading down and maximizing their picks. With that said, there were a lot of D on the board so their strategy may have been closer to my second example where they may have seen him as being comparable to Gardiner, which might be why they moved down.

The point is, if a player is the top player on the internal list, teams cannot just move down because a TSN's list has that player as a second rounder. That's not reality, and it doesn't work that way. That's what Mann was referring to.

Yep Anaheim moved back to 17, and Ottawa moved up from 18 to 15.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I still have 0 idea why Mann and Dorion thought we needed a physical winger when we already had Tkachuk and Greig.

 

[aragorn]

I still have 0 idea why Mann and Dorion thought we needed a physical winger when we already had Tkachuk and Greig.

Most analysts are saying that Ottawa is too easy to play against & need a forward with a lot more snarl in their game. They are saying that too many of Ottawa's forwards don't finish their checks & do fly bys way too often & don't make life miserable on the opponents defence. Batherson, Joseph, Norris, Pinto, Kubalik, Giroux & Stutzle don't finish their checks often enough & their defence is too soft because they have too much of the same thing & there isn't enough snarl on the backend either. They don't have a hard hitting defenceman who hits to hurt.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Most analysts are saying that Ottawa is too easy to play against & need a forward with a lot more snarl in their game. They are saying that too many of Ottawa's forwards don't finish their checks & do fly bys way too often & don't make life miserable on the opponents defence. Batherson, Joseph, Norris, Pinto, Kubalik, Giroux & Stutzle don't finish their checks often enough & their defence is too soft because they have too much of the same thing & there isn't enough snarl on the backend either. They don't have a hard hitting defenceman who hits to hurt.

That more of a coaching system issue.

 

[aragorn]

That more of a coaching system issue.

Well we'll see if he can get these guys to start finishing their checks & being much harder to play against. It wasn't all that long ago where Ottawa was a hard hitting team & were hard to play against & very entertaining. Keith Tkachuk pointed it out that Florida needed to play like that. And it seems right after that Florida did start playing like that, started winning & Ottawa went the other way & became more passive. Let's hope Green is able to change this mind set.

 

[Micklebot]

I still have 0 idea why Mann and Dorion thought we needed a physical winger when we already had Tkachuk and Greig.

Well Greig was still very undersized at that point, and we still need more physical wingers even with those two.

I suspect the projection they had for Boucher was something similar to Anderson in MTL, hoping for a 40-50 pts punishing 2nd line winger during his prime.

I think that projection was overly optimistic but what do I know...

If he did pan out to be something like that, it's not a bad pick, even a 30-40 pts punishing winger is a great piece to have in the lineup.

 

[BondraTime]

The Hockey News draft preview came out and they’ve got Levshunov at 7th, which would be great.

 

[PlayOn]

I still have 0 idea why Mann and Dorion thought we needed a physical winger when we already had Tkachuk and Greig.

Well I don’t think he was wrong about that honestly. He thought we needed a guy that could be a complimentary winger to skilled players and be relentless on the forecheck, physical, get in the front of the net etc. In theory I think it’s exactly what we need because Brady is the only one that does these things particularly well.

I don’t think I’d classify it as coaching. I think we can get better in those areas with good coaching but I also think you need players it comes naturally to.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's interesting, I look at that list, and I don't think it's that far off from what we'll look like next season (in terms of size). Using Hockey Db for size:

Chabot 6'2 203
Sanderson 6'2 203
Zub 6'3 204
Kleven 6'4 200 (I kind of suspect he'll be a bit bigger after a summer of training)

Chychrun is likely gone, but he's listed at 6'2 205 which seems light given how ripped the guy is.
Brannstrom is also likely gone.

JBD is a bit small at 6'0 and 190,
Hamonic is 6'1 200

I hope/suspect we add someone on the right side, I really hope it's Pesce or Matt Roy, who would both add some more size, but Tanev would be great too even if he'd be the smallest outside of JBD?

They obviously play a little different. Hamonic may be shorter and lighter than chabot. But prime Hamonic played massive. Chabot plays smaller than he is

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I still have 0 idea why Mann and Dorion thought we needed a physical winger when we already had Tkachuk and Greig.

Well they also thought he would be a good player. Thats probably the more important thing

 

[Micklebot]

They obviously play a little different. Hamonic may be shorter and lighter than chabot. But prime Hamonic played massive. Chabot plays smaller than he is

Certainly, and Tanev would play the biggest while being among the smallest.

I thing Kleven and a RHD acquisition could go a long way towards changing how our backend is perceived, a guy like Tanev or Pesce would be ideal.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

My theory on Boucher is that they didn't scout for shit that draft and they thought he was a "safe" pick because his skillset would translate to him being a force in the bottom 6 even if the higher end scoring didn't pan out. I don't think it was looked at as a normal 10th overall pick value wise. It was probably seen as more of a toss up.

It was basically a blind pick so they went for the safe choice that should have filled a need that they didn't have in their system and ensured that they would walk away with an important NHL player that is not easy to acquire.

Obviously, partly due to injuries, that hasn't worked out. He was not productive in College after being drafted and switched to the OHL. It's been a comedy of errors and bad fortune.

I think Dorion trading both the 2022 and 2023 picks also hurt people's willingness to accept the nature of the 2021 draft once that first tier of 8 or 9 players were off the board. Because it has been years since we drafted a major player, all the focus has been on Boucher being a failure relative to people's unrealistic expectations of a pick in the COVID draft. Had we drafted 12th and 7th the two years after and had a different positive element to focus on, I think people would be more accepting that the 2021 pick did not have the value or certainty of a typical 10th overall pick due to circumstances related to COVID and possibly related to scaling back the scouting relative to other teams because of no revenue (if that indeed happened).

 

[Micklebot]

My theory on Boucher is that they didn't scout for shit that draft and they thought he was a "safe" pick because his skillset would translate to him being a force in the bottom 6 even if the higher end scoring didn't pan out. I don't think it was looked at as a normal 10th overall pick value wise. It was probably seen as more of a toss up.

It was basically a blind pick so they went for the safe choice that should have filled a need that they didn't have in their system and ensured that they would walk away with an important NHL player that is not easy to acquire.

Obviously, partly due to injuries, that hasn't worked out. He was not productive in College after being drafted and switched to the OHL. It's been a comedy of errors and bad fortune.

I think Dorion trading both the 2022 and 2023 picks also hurt people's willingness to accept the nature of the 2021 draft once that first tier of 8 or 9 players were off the board. Because it has been years since we drafted a major player, all the focus has been on Boucher being a failure relative to people's unrealistic expectations of a pick in the COVID draft. Had we drafted 12th and 7th the two years after and had a different positive element to focus on, I think people would be more accepting that the 2021 pick did not have the value or certainty of a typical 10th overall pick due to circumstances related to COVID and possibly related to scaling back the scouting relative to other teams because of no revenue (if that indeed happened).

He played very little in his draft year, like, 20 games if I recall due to a mix of Covid and injuries, not sure how you'd consider that a safe pick.

 

[Ouroboros]

Somebody get Don Boyd an Athletic subscription.

"They switched their draft focus from size to skill."

No tanks: How the Stars keep drafting and developing talent from the back of the first round

The Stars have a lot of young talent. How do they do it? They don't just find good players — they routinely put them in position to succeed.

www.nytimes.com

Did they really move away from drafting size, though? Not sure I'm buying it.

The three guys they credit for saving the franchise are Miro Heiskanen [6'2", 197], Jake Oettinger [6'6", 224] and Jason Robertson [6'3", 202] and none of them are small. The following draft in 2018 didn't produce many hits, but they were still taking big guys - Ty Dellandrea [6'2", 190], Albin Eriksson [6'3", 205], Oskar Back [6'3", 210], Curtis Douglas [6'9", 242], and Jermaine Loewen [6'4", 231].

In 2019, they hit on Thomas Harley [6'4", 206]. Wyatt Johnston was a huge steal in 2021, but at 6'2"/185 he can hardly be considered small. They drafted Lian Bichsel [6'6", 230] 18th overall in 2022. Their first pick in 2023 was Tristan Bertucci [6'2", 175]. Even if you trace it back further, a disproportionate amount of their successful picks have been sizeable players; Roope Hintz, Val Nichushkin, Esa Lindell, Nick Paul, Jamie Oleksiak.

They took a calculated risk on Logan Stankoven and it's paying off. Maybe they have one more smaller guy coming up behind him in Mavrik Bourque?

It's certainly not like the Dubas-era Leafs who were almost exclusively drafting sub six-foot positional players, or the Tulsky-led Canes who clearly go out of their way to draft an absurd amount of very small long-shot bets.

Seems more like they've managed to identify a lot of the ideal sort of prospect - big guys that can play.

 

[dumbdick]

I just want an exciting player in this draft. Parekh or Catton. No iginla please.

It feels like an interesting draft.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I just want an exciting player in this draft. Parekh or Catton. No iginla please.

It feels like an interesting draft.

Iginla is hella exciting.

 

[Icelevel]

More I think about more I can imagine levshunov, buium, parekh being first d to go.
We’d get a chance at dickinson or silayev.
Or iginla, Lindstrom, catton, etc.

This 1st round is going to be super interesting.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

The Hockey News draft preview came out and they’ve got Levshunov at 7th, which would be great.

God send if that were to be the case. Highly, highly doubt he makes it past Anaheim.

 

[dumbdick]

Iginla is hella exciting.

I'm less convinced.

Give me the skill of a catton or skating of Parehk. We can work on their faults.

Or trade back a few spots and grab Eiserman

 

[Cosmix]

Most analysts are saying that Ottawa is too easy to play against & need a forward with a lot more snarl in their game. They are saying that too many of Ottawa's forwards don't finish their checks & do fly bys way too often & don't make life miserable on the opponents defence. Batherson, Joseph, Norris, Pinto, Kubalik, Giroux & Stutzle don't finish their checks often enough & their defence is too soft because they have too much of the same thing & there isn't enough snarl on the backend either. They don't have a hard hitting defenceman who hits to hurt.

Plus we need more than 1 forward who plays with snarl! More like 6 of them.

The Hockey News draft preview came out and they’ve got Levshunov at 7th, which would be great.

I doubt that Levshunov falls to 7. I think he will be in the top 4 taken.

 

[Cosmix]

That more of a coaching system issue.

No. It is a player type issue.

Not all players can play like Chris Neil and Brady Tkachuk. They don't have to if they are effective in other ways (e.g., Gretzky, Bossy, Lemieux).

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Hockey News draft preview came out and they’ve got Levshunov at 7th, which would be great.

Thanks, I’ll check the mailbox today.

 

[Golden_Jet]

My theory on Boucher is that they didn't scout for shit that draft and they thought he was a "safe" pick because his skillset would translate to him being a force in the bottom 6 even if the higher end scoring didn't pan out. I don't think it was looked at as a normal 10th overall pick value wise. It was probably seen as more of a toss up.

Wasn’t the scouting for the draft, strictly video in NA, and some leagues not even playing.

and the draft itself was zoom.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

God send if that were to be the case. Highly, highly doubt he makes it past Anaheim.

Real nhl scouts told McKenzie him and Silayev are in their top 4 at least lol. They ain’t making it to us