HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft -- Rate it, Love it or Hate it

[Captain Mountain]

I give it an A.

Most of us no **** all about almost all prospects and picks outside of the top 50 generally don't amount to anything.

Montreal needed to bet on talent and upside, and Demidov absolutely is. I'd argue Hage is too (plus Hage is a great story).

There are some intriguing and weird gambles from day two, but Koivu is a nice draft story if nothing else.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I gave an A. I absolutely loved the first round, both Demidov and Hage, but after that there is not one single pick I liked. Sure, I didm't know most of the players and stats are deceiving, but their stats are bad, I've never heard amateur scouts talk about any of them apart from Koivu and there were interesting prospects available at each of those picks.

Many had the same concerns about our drafting of

Following my list, my BPAs were:
1st: 5. Ivan Demidov - 6'1 - RW/C
1st: 21. Liam Greentree - 6'4 - RW
3rd: 70. Miguel Marques - 5'10 - RW
3rd: 78. Aron Kiviharju - 5'10 - D
4th: 102. Simon Zether - 6'3 - C
5th: 130. Anthony Romani - 6'0 - C/RW
5th: 134. Justin Poirier - 5'8 - RW
6th: 166. Kieron Walton - 6'6 - C/LW
7th: 210. Ryerson Leenders - 6'2 - G
7th: 224. Daniil Anatsky - 6'3 - C

Good list.

Having watched him often, I think Greentree, due to his skating limitations was, along with Parekh, one the most overrated players in this draft.

But passing multiple times on Kieron Walton will, in this writer’s opinion, be regarded as a lamentable lost opportunity. I think in the end, Walton will prove to be a much better NHL player than many players taken before him.

 

[FrankMTL]

On another note, it's crazy that for a defense heavy draft that 5 of top 6 players taken (and 6 of the top 8) were forwards. Not too many people were predicting that I'm sure.

I'm shocked that they didn't pick Poirier with either of their 5th rounders. I mean if anything just to get a very talented local boy, regardless of his size. They must really not have liked him very much.

 

[JC Superstar]

A+ all the way, if only for Demidov, Hage and Koivu.

The pressure in Montreal will be on Adam Nicholas: it seems that most of day 2 picks, while having undeniable qualities, seems to have questionable skating mechanics. If Nicholas can teach them proper skills and they gain a gear or two, we might have a very good crop.

 

[vokiel]

On another note, it's crazy that for a defense heavy draft that 5 of top 6 players taken (and 6 of the top 8) were forwards. Not too many people were predicting that I'm sure.

I'm shocked that they didn't pick Poirier with either of their 5th rounders. I mean if anything just to get a very talented local boy, regardless of his size. They must really not have liked him very much.

It's the same every draft. It's those who were predicting a top 10 heavy in D, that were off the track.

 

[RationalExpectations]

13 points? I'm sure a f***tone have lmao. I mean just from his draft (2020), Sanderson, Schneider, Faber, Ghule have him beat and its a tie with Lohrei. CBA to check every other draft but dman scoring 13 points or more in their D+4 must be times a dozen.

He played only 40 games this season. He is a better puck mover than Guhle. Sanderson is a top 5 pick. Schneider is a more complete player. Faber is on the road to become elite. Lohrei is much less PMD than Barron. I don t get the hate against Barron, but welll…

 

[HabsCode]

He played only 40 games this season. He is a better puck mover than Guhle. Sanderson is a top 5 pick. Schneider is a more complete player. Faber is on the road to become elite. Lohrei is much less PMD than Barron. I don t get the hate against Barron, but welll…

I have no hate for him or any other Habs player those are strong words you are using here. This is just a sport I enjoy watching. I just said Barron doesn't have much value beside a low pick (or maybe some kind of similar prospect swap). He is a defenseman who shys away for gritty play and contact, not particularly solid in his own end. IMO he is behind the chart of young defenseman in Ghule and I prefer Strubble game for the bottom pairing. It is a tie with Harris. Furthermore, Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux have a higher ceiling than him again, in my option.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

They could have had Greentree without trading up. We’ll see how he compares to Hage.

They couldn't have, LA traded down because they expected their guy (Greentree) to be there. If they didn't, they'd have stayed put at 26.

 

[DAChampion]

Love the draft huge
Disappointed KH made no trade..
Still way to many d men.

? Is now what????

Ummm, Hughes did make a trade.

 

[yianik]

A+ all the way, if only for Demidov, Hage and Koivu.

The pressure in Montreal will be on Adam Nicholas: it seems that most of day 2 picks, while having undeniable qualities, seems to have questionable skating mechanics. If Nicholas can teach them proper skills and they gain a gear or two, we might have a very good crop.

You don't post often but you came heavy. Excellent observation, and its important.

I recall, especially in the days of Houle, that we would pick a guy in the 1st and the word would be, needs to work on his skating. And then over the years the report would be the same, needs to work on foot speed. And at D+ whatever we cut the kid loose because at least in part, that foot speed never came. And it just wasn't Houle.

It occurred to me that " hoping" a kid would just improve his speed was a dumbass approach in drafting. Today, I still think it's tough if a kid doesn't have skating ability but at least now the team actually has experts to help a kid and guide our drafting. You don't think our specialist trainers get asked, "we think this kid could be real good but he needs an extra step, what do you think is it fixable ?".

I get the feeling Habs are being run by professionals and we finally invested a couple million on the people needed to help our prospects and players bring out their best.

 

[billy piton]

The most united this board has ever been. A+

i gave it an A just because it makes me really nervous when the whole fanbase is ecstatic about draft picks.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

It is possible that we wont have any players at WJC this year…Maybe Hage or Koivu?

Yeah, Hage, Koivu & Vecvanags. Latvia is in the tournament. I expect him to be one of the goalies. But, we drafted a ton of late birthdays in 2023, so no one from that draft is actually eligible.

 

[ReHabs]

i gave it an A just because it makes me really nervous when the whole fanbase is ecstatic about draft picks.

There's no guarantee Demidov will succeed or that he'll do it in Habs colours. Anything can happen. But he IS a top-tier skilled forward prospect the likes of which we haven't had in a very long time. Slafkovsky the 1OA notwithstanding.

 

[ReHabs]

Ok, well that was an interesting exercise. # 1 is a surprise but the rest of the accurate ones should not be a surprise. They are well known as experts and some have worked on NHL teams before.

Here is how far each ranking (on average) was off from the actual draft results. Some caveats:

• Took Round 1 only
• It's how far off on average they were from actual draft results
• Had to elminate a few sources as I didn't have their rankings past 32. i.e. Hockey prospect/Black Book
• Also excluded if they dont share anything without cost (Recrutes)
• Excluded CSS as they don't combine NA and European rankings
• Being way off on a few guys can skew the overall result.

1) PM @ Draft Rankings - whoever this guy is. Off by an average of 4.84 spots
2) McKenzie 4.88 - the gold standard
3) Chris Peters/Flo Hockey 5.25
4) Corey Pronman Athletic 6.25
5) Jason Bukala Sportsnet 6.41
6) Rachel Doerrie ESPN 6.91
7) Upside Hockey 6.94
8) Malloy HP radio 7.19
9) McKeens 7.38
10) Hockey news 7.84
11) Scott Wheeler Athletic 7.88
12) Craig Button 8.00
13) Elite prospects 8.22
14) Ryan Ellis Daily FO 8.34
15) Dobber 9.97
16) Smaht 11.13
17) DraftPro 12.34
18) Recruits Hockey 12.59
19) Scouching 13.16
20) Future Considerations 16.72

Thanks for crunching the numbers, I think it should inform how we react to draft prediction lists next in seasons to come. McKenzie remains the gold standard.

 

[yianik]

I'll go A+. Three teams passed on Demidov and there were other guys they could have justified taking but they grabbed the right guy. Lol. We picked 2nd overall guys. I know, no guarantee , but this was our chance for an elite play driver and we took him.

Then we take a high skill C who can skate with the 26th. Oh no, wait, with the 21st because Hughes figured Hage and I'm guessing a couple others they wanted might be there at 21 but not 26 ( I wrongly thought it was a precursor to another trade ).

So the 1st is the round, get that right and it's a successful draft. . I don't have a clue about all these other guys,( except Koivu who I thought was a good pick besides the name ) so I usually take note of what is being said here, except that last year the Board was not happy ( like only picked Florian because of his brother) and the Board was wrong. So this year I don't care if someone thinks we should have gone for Dude x at pick 159 th, HUGO gets the benefit of the doubt.

 

[ReHabs]

Many had the same concerns about our drafting of Florian Xhekaj. After Round 3, the draft largely becomes the Keno of sport management.

Yeah I found cause to criticise the pick of Florian Xhekaj but that was MY fault for not adjusting to the new way they do things. This year: no complaints, no worries. I think this also informs my criticism of their approach to development... Slafkovsky's rise from the proverbial ashes of his first 60 games gives them a LOT of credit in my book.

In short: Later picks are really not that important and I'm glad to quote Nick Bobrov "you need to swing at some high-end skill".

Their stated philosophy toward the draft is not in debate... whether they're good or not will be revealed soon enough.

 

[Andrei79]

Difficult to rate the later picks.

However, I find the first round was excellent value. Both Demidov and Have likely should have went earlier. Demidov is a top 2OA caliber talent and Hage was picked later due to circumstances (injury, personal tragedy), however he has every tool on top of a second half where he tore it up. What happens if he went 2ppg the whole year ? I can easily understand why Hughes and Lapointe were all smiles. So, A.

 

[ReHabs]

Many had the same concerns about our drafting of

Good list.

Having watched him often, I think Greentree, due to his skating limitations was, along with Parekh, one the most overrated players in this draft.

But passing multiple times on Kieron Walton will, in this writer’s opinion, be regarded as a lamentable lost opportunity. I think in the end, Walton will prove to be a much better NHL player than many players taken before him.

You're big on skating, I've seen you mention it a lot. Have you any thoughts on Demidov?

 

[Andrei79]

Yeah I found cause to criticise the pick of Florian Xhekaj but that was MY fault for not adjusting to the new way they do things. This year: no complaints, no worries. I think this also informs my criticism of their approach to development... Slafkovsky's rise from the proverbial ashes of his first 60 games gives them a LOT of credit in my book.

In short: Later picks are really not that important and I'm glad to quote Nick Bobrov "you need to swing at some high-end skill".

Their stated philosophy toward the draft is not in debate... whether they're good or not will be revealed soon enough.

I agree with all of this.

I'm always tentative of praising a group when the results aren't there yet. We'll know in the coming two or three years if they can actually get out of the asset accumulation phase (i.e. rebuilding) and actually start to make the playoffs. Even then, you still need to contend afterwards, something teams like Toronto have never been able to do.

That said, I do find that I agree and support both their due diligence and their process. It ended up with some mistakes (trading Lehkonen and acquiring Barron), but I still find it's the sort of process that eventually makes you end up with a Byram, a Johnston, a Devon Toews or a Montour. That might have happened with Hage. Unfortunately though, Florida ended up getting its shit together last year and we didn't get our Byram. Luck is preparation meeting opportunity however and they need to continue down this path and eventually something else will hit.

 

[Milhouse40]

I think it's worth looking into how it shook out. For instance a small analysis of Bob McKenzie's list reveals the following: of the top 10 picks, he was on average 3 spots off and of the top16 he was 3.6 ranks off. What's wild is he nailed the top14 except for the order, which tells me that there was a clear tier difference between the top14 and below them.

How did Pronman and others do?

Spoiler

Player (list order is Bobby Mac)	McKenzie Prediction	Real Draft Rank	Difference
Macklin Celebrini (C)	1	1​	0​
Ivan Demidov (RW/C)	2	5​	3​
Artyom Levshunov (D)	3	2​	-1​
Anton Silayev (D)	4	10​	6​
Cayden Lindstrom (C)	5	4​	-1​
Sam Dickinson (D)	6	11​	5​
Zeev Buium (D)	7	12​	5​
Zayne Parekh (D)	8	9​	1​
Konsta Helenius (C/RW)	9	14​	5​
Tij Iginla (LW)	10	6​	-4​
Beckett Sennecke (RW)	11	3​	-8​
Berkly Catton (C)	12	8​	-4​
Carter Yakemchuk (D)	13	7​	-6​
Cole Eiserman (LW)	14	20​	6​
Trevor Connelly (LW)	15	19​	4​
Adam Jiříček (D)	16	16​	0​
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (RW)	17	15​	-2​
Liam Greentree (RW)	18	26​	8​
Jett Luchanko (C)	19	13​	-6​
Stian Solberg (D)	20	23​	3​
Igor Chernyshov (LW)	21	33​	12​
Sacha Boisvert (C)	22	18​	-4​
Cole Beaudoin (C)	23	24​	1​
Michael Hage (C)	24	21​	-3​
Terik Parascak (RW)	25	17​	-8​
Emil Hemming (RW)	26	29​	3​
EJ Emery (D)	27	30​	3​
Marek Vanacker (LW)	28	27​	-1​
Dominik Badinka (D)	29	34​	5​
Andrew Basha (LW)	30	41​	11​
Ryder Ritchie (RW)	31	45​	14​
Sam O'Reilly (C)	32	32​	0​

Yeah, many people here have been breaking my balls for posting betting odds for 2 weeks, which I trust even more than these insiders. Insiders are often right, no doubt, but just not as precisely as the betting odds which I closely follow for the last 3 draft

Well, for the Top 5, they've been right for the exact 5 of them at the end, for the last week they've had 4 of the 5 right on.

Remember it next year....

 

[1000eeer]

The only two teams I'd give a A+ are Minnesota and San Jose.

Minnesota scouting staff is certainly one of the best in the league : Buium, Ritchie, Kiviharju. WoW!

I'm not a huge fan of our scouting staff but they received a big fat pitch with Demidov being available at 5.

Grade: A

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

TBH, after doing some digging on Sawyer, Thorpe and Merrill, I'm starting to like them a lot as later round projects. There's definitely a method to that particular madness, i.e. picking big toolsy guys on an upward development curve.

 

[Zilo44]

The only two teams I'd give a A+ are Minnesota and San Jose.

Minnesota scouting staff is certainly one of the best in the league : Buium, Ritchie, Kiviharju. WoW!

I'm not a huge fan of our scouting staff but they received a big fat pitch with Demidov being available at 5.

Grade: A

2022 : Slaf, Beck, Hutson and Engstrom all have NHL potential, two of them with superstars ceiling.

2023 : Reinbacher, Newhook, Fowler, Xhekaj and Konyushkov could all play in the NhL.

2024 : Demidov, Hage are basically sure things as contributors.

What’s not to like? Can I remind you where we come from in terms of drafting over 30 years ?

 

[Deebs]

I'll give the draft an "A" based solely off Ivan and Mike. We had a dire need for offensive talent and we addressed that need very well. The rest of the draft should be seen as a bonus if any of them hit.

 

[Jaynki]

How can we rate it other than A+.

Snagging Demidov at 5 is the equivalent of winning a lottery pick.

Hage was our target and we succesfully moved up for him. Great potential for a top 6 RHC and he has a lot of charisma. His story touched me.