GDT: 2024 NHL Draft - (1st Round - 6/28 at 7PM ET and Remainder of Draft - 6/29 at 11:30AM ET)

[iceman42]

A team that needs to be rebuilding is again going to pick as few players as possible, while also going for fit over quality.

We do have a love-affair with bottom 6 types. FA signings, Vet signings, draft, front office positions.

 

[BritainStix]

I’m as critical of this forum as anyone, but some things are clearly evident at the time. I believe success in hockey is far more random than people tend to acknowledge — this is why I don’t find myself getting outraged like others do — but it also means the name of the game is to maximize your probability to hit over enough events (draft picks, trades, etc). We have years and years of history indicating what kinds of decisions are probability-maximizing vs probability-minimizing.

You don’t have to claim with certainty that “this player will succeed and this player will fail” to make the point that “this was the wrong decision because the odds of it working are lower than the odds of foregone decision”. This is the frustration I have as someone who generally gives managers a lot of rope because I understand that the “best process” can often fail, and the “worst process” may sometimes succeed by no factors related to the skill of the decision makers.

I'm fully on board ripping this dumbass organisation and the idiotic way they go about doing shit, as the same for all the other GMs put there.

It's just interesting that there's been wild posts already about some of the draft picks that have absolutely nothing to do with the actual player. "Luchanko will never amount to more than a 4th liner", "Buium is a surefire top pairing defenseman" kind of level.

 

[GKJ]

@Appleyard what’s with Latvia and goalies now? Montreal just took one, they seem to be getting some turned out.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I’m as critical of this forum as anyone, but some things are clearly evident at the time. I believe success in hockey is far more random than people tend to acknowledge — this is why I don’t find myself getting outraged like others do — but it also means the name of the game is to maximize your probability to hit over enough events (draft picks, trades, etc). We have years and years of history indicating what kinds of decisions are probability-maximizing vs probability-minimizing.

You don’t have to claim with certainty that “this player will succeed and this player will fail” to make the point that “this was the wrong decision because the odds of it working are lower than the odds of foregone decision”. This is the frustration I have as someone who generally gives managers a lot of rope because I understand that the “best process” can often fail, and the “worst process” may sometimes succeed by no factors related to the skill of the decision makers.

Was drafting Milan Lucic in the top 50 a good decision?

I think it's completely fine to answer either yes or no. But it's on us to understand that if you're talking to someone who disagrees with you on the answer, you're flat out having two different conversations. And that's ok. It can be left at that.

 

[GKJ]

 

[Adam Warlock]

Others can be added to this list-Hextall, Hakstol. It seems to me that it shows an organization that is flailing around to find a successful identity. The Flyers are no worse than half of the franchises in the League with this rotating door for poor management.
They need to find a Zito type who knows what he can do in the game in order to succeed. Relying on old heads who played in an era that is so far removed from today is doomed to failure. I had hopes for Briere but then he was joined by Jones and hired Tortorella and he hung himself.
A full clean out of the Flyers is needed. Then go after the right person to be their lynchpin in the turn over. Go throw all of the money that they need to and hire that guy; say a Jon Cooper. Then give them carte blanche to do what needs to be done to reshape the organization top to bottom. People may laugh but it's what the Red Wings have done with Yzerman and it is slowly bearing fruit. It has to be an outsider. This club has been a loser for so long that they don't know what winning looks like.

The problems with the Flyers run to its core. They greatly overvalue intaginbles in bottom of the line up talent and that leads them into making dumb decisions. They are also way too loyal which also leads them to make dumb decisions.

They hire GMs that believe in these two foundation beliefs who hire coaches that believe in them...hence why it never changes.

 

[Beef Invictus]

We do have a love-affair with bottom 6 types. FA signings, Vet signings, draft, front office positions.

I'm a broken record, but they behave like they think you can have too much talent and that having too much talent is worse than not having enough. And with Michkov coming over they're at their talent limit.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm fully on board ripping this dumbass organisation and the idiotic way they go about doing shit, as the same for all the other GMs put there.

It's just interesting that there's been wild posts already about some of the draft picks that have absolutely nothing to do with the actual player. "Luchanko will never amount to more than a 4th liner", "Buium is a surefire top pairing defenseman" kind of level.

It's all about probability. The probability of Buium being a high end player is a lot higher than the probability for Luchanko to do it. No "surefire" anything is necessary, this is a process that we can see is minimizing chances for success. As always.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

If the Flyers pick another center, I’m gonna puke.

RW Noah Powell

 

[ellja3]

134

Montréal Canadiens

Mikus Vecvanags (G)

Another Latvian, ok, ok. Not bad, interesting.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Overager. I know some liked him.

 

[iceman42]

I'm a broken record, but they behave like they think you can have too much talent and that having too much talent is worse than not having enough. And with Michkov coming over they're at their talent limit.

All the looping and swooping must be kept in check.

 

[BigToe]

Overager. I know some liked him.

Haven’t seen him but EP had him at 77

 

[FLYguy3911]

Haven’t seen him but EP had him at 77

42 goals in his last 45 games or something like that. His micros look good.

 

[BigToe]

The Canes do it again

 

[BiggE]

42 goals in his last 45 games or something like that. His micros look good.

On the one hand, the Flyers seem to be doing a pretty good job at selecting RWs, on the other hand, it’s hard to win dressing a lineup of 20 RWs.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

How many times now have the Flyers traded up? To me outside of maybe like the top 15 area it’s just not worth trading up & granted the league doesn’t really trade top 10 picks at all.

But once you start moving to the back half of the first round & beyond the variance isn’t really that great in terms of odds. So in reality you should be staying put or trading back in those situations. The numbers support this. These are the ranges you absolutely want to volume draft in. But the Flyers are doing to opposite.

 

[FLYguy3911]

NJ gave up on Holtz eh?

The Canes do it again

They just trade back and back and back and pick up all the fallers. It's like their GM is a scientist or something.

 

[BigToe]

Think he’s got one of the best shots in the draft

 

[GKJ]

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

How many times now have the Flyers traded up? To me outside of maybe like the top 15 area it’s just not worth trading up & granted the league doesn’t really trade top 10 picks at all.

But once you start moving to the back half of the first round & beyond the variance isn’t really that great in terms of odds. So in reality you should be staying put or trading back in those situations. The numbers support this. These are the ranges you absolutely want to volume draft in. But the Flyers are doing to opposite.

Flarh did this with Fletcher in 2020 & thought they were so smart especially in the early going but now Wisdom probably isn’t an NHL player & Desnoyers if he does reach the NHL it’s probably in a lower lineup capacity. They traded additional draft capital just to target guys in the 4th & 5th rounds.

It’s just dumb process & reeks of arrogance.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I do not hate cashing in on Holtz while he had some value left.

He's heading into his D+5 and we're not even sure if he's an NHLer yet.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Adam Fox, Gustav Forsling, & Miro Heiskanen were the best defensemen of three of those final four teams this year. Neither are going to wow you with their size.

 

[FLYguy3911]

So predictable lol.

 

[wankstifier]

Does he think Yzerman is the best GM?