GDT: 2024 NHL Draft - (1st Round - 6/28 at 7PM ET and Remainder of Draft - 6/29 at 11:30AM ET)

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

I always enjoy the absolute certainty in people's convictions about 17 year old kids. You would swear that the draft is dead easy and you just follow the consensus.

It has nothing to do with 17 year old kids. It’s about the shit organization selecting the kids. They have done NOTHING to earn the benefit of the doubt. Their drafting and developing have been bad. And that might be putting it mildly.

So when the Flyers eschew the obvious pick and reach for a position of need or go off the board or act like the smartest team in the room, they’re going to get criticized and deservedly so.

If you need an example of just how disastrous having a bad process can be, just look at the Bonk pick. By all accounts, Bonk had a great year and has improved a lot as a prospect. I’ve seen him in a lot of peoples top 50 midseason / after season prospect rankings. He’s a success story. I like him and I’m rooting for him. So what’s the problem? Well, the guy we passed up to take him, the no-brainer pick Gabe Perreault, is currently a top 10 prospect (top 5 according to some). Could Bonk still be better? Sure. Could Jett be a stud 1C? Maybe that’s a 1% outcome for him, it’s theoretically possible. But in the meantime, we’ve lost value.

If we decide we want to make a big trade for an established superstar, we have less assets to make said trade right now than we would’ve if we had taken Buium and Perreault.

 

[TCTC]

Saw a picture of Ruohonen and my first reaction was, what an unfortunate face.

 

[TheKingPin]

How does that strategy typically pan out?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

There are NFL projects that compare consensus public boards to what teams do. We have meaningful evidence this holds true.

Where they tend to fail are in the medicals, which makes perfect sense.

One of the biggest game changers in college football recruiting has been the ability to get verifiable athletic testing numbers & measureables on kids as the internet has progressed over time.

Obviously you have better tools to access these things as well whether it be at football camps or even track/field type of events as well. Which then get posted over the internet.

That’s the biggest set of intel schools can have no a days. Kids, high school coaches, parents, etc. they can’t bullshit these things anymore like they could like 15+ years ago.

Schools & even the recruiting sites now know this is probably the best data set to bet on when looking at players.

 

[FLYguy3911]

How does that strategy typically pan out?

These kids are typically the best in their age groups so I'm sure its a positive to some degree although there is a point of diminishing returns as the draft goes on.

It can come off as lazy one-stop scouting though.

 

[BiggE]

Briere, like Hextall, thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. He’s not, not even close. Flahr doesn’t care about being the smartest guy in the room as long as the room comes with an all you can eat buffet.

Fletcher never claimed to be the smartest guy in the room as he considers intelligence highly overrated. Besides, he had a how to be a winning GM app and a rotary phone so his life was complete.

 

[BigToe]

Completely forgot about Boilard. That’s a good pick.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Kiviharju going about 121 picks after he was supposed to some years ago.

 

[BritainStix]

It has nothing to do with 17 year old kids. It’s about the shit organization selecting the kids. They have done NOTHING to earn the benefit of the doubt. Their drafting and developing have been bad. And that might be putting it mildly.

So when the Flyers eschew the obvious pick and reach for a position of need or go off the board or act like the smartest team in the room, they’re going to get criticized and deservedly so.

If you need an example of just how disastrous having a bad process can be, just look at the Bonk pick. By all accounts, Bonk had a great year and has improved a lot as a prospect. I’ve seen him in a lot of peoples top 50 midseason / after season prospect rankings. He’s a success story. I like him and I’m rooting for him. So what’s the problem? Well, the guy we passed up to take him, the no-brainer pick Gabe Perreault, is currently a top 10 prospect (top 5 according to some). Could Bonk still be better? Sure. Could Jett be a stud 1C? Maybe that’s a 1% outcome for him, it’s theoretically possible. But in the meantime, we’ve lost value.

If we decide we want to make a big trade for an established superstar, we have less assets to make said trade right now than we would’ve if we had taken Buium and Perreault.

I wasn't just talking about the flyers board. This entire website is built on people forming opinions that cannot be swayed, even though outside of the 1st round it's an absolute crapshoot.

No one ever admits when they get things wrong. 95% of people here have never seen any of these kids play.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Kiviharju going about 121 picks after he was supposed to some years ago.

Flahr and company knew that would happen.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

One of the biggest game changers in college football recruiting has been the ability to get verifiable athletic testing numbers & measureables on kids as the internet has progressed over time.

Obviously you have better tools to access these things as well whether it be at football camps or even track/field type of events as well. Which then get posted over the internet.

That’s the biggest set of intel schools can have no a days. Kids, high school coaches, parents, etc. they can’t bullshit these things anymore like they could like 15+ years ago.

Schools & even the recruiting sites now know this is probably the best data set to bet on when looking at players.

One look at the arc of the careers of 5 star QB recruits is all you need to visualize this. They’re one holy hell of a lot more reliable than they used to be.

 

[renberg]

Fletcher
AV
Yeo
Torts
Danny H
Jonesy
Danny B

We really are cursed

Others can be added to this list-Hextall, Hakstol. It seems to me that it shows an organization that is flailing around to find a successful identity. The Flyers are no worse than half of the franchises in the League with this rotating door for poor management.
They need to find a Zito type who knows what he can do in the game in order to succeed. Relying on old heads who played in an era that is so far removed from today is doomed to failure. I had hopes for Briere but then he was joined by Jones and hired Tortorella and he hung himself.
A full clean out of the Flyers is needed. Then go after the right person to be their lynchpin in the turn over. Go throw all of the money that they need to and hire that guy; say a Jon Cooper. Then give them carte blanche to do what needs to be done to reshape the organization top to bottom. People may laugh but it's what the Red Wings have done with Yzerman and it is slowly bearing fruit. It has to be an outsider. This club has been a loser for so long that they don't know what winning looks like.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

One look at the arc of the careers of 5 star QB recruits is all you need to visualize this. They’re one holy hell of a lot more reliable than they used to be.

Explain Drew Allar. Pain.

 

[BigToe]

Misa, Humphreys, Caswell, Poirier, Swanson, Fibigr all making it to the 5th round. I’d be all over them.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Misa, Humphreys, Caswell, Poirier, Swanson, Fibigr all making it to the 5th round. I’d be all over them.

Swanson may go undrafted. He should get drafted in the lotto rounds though.

 

[BiggE]

Others can be added to this list-Hextall, Hakstol. It seems to me that it shows an organization that is flailing around to find a successful identity. The Flyers are no worse than half of the franchises in the League with this rotating door for poor management.
They need to find a Zito type who knows what he can do in the game in order to succeed. Relying on old heads who played in an era that is so far removed from today is doomed to failure. I had hopes for Briere but then he was joined by Jones and hired Tortorella and he hung himself.
A full clean out of the Flyers is needed. Then go after the right person to be their lynchpin in the turn over. Go throw all of the money that they need to and hire that guy; say a Jon Cooper. Then give them carte blanche to do what needs to be done to reshape the organization top to bottom. People may laugh but it's what the Red Wings have done with Yzerman and it is slowly bearing fruit. It has to be an outsider. This club has been a loser for so long that they don't know what winning looks like.

Good luck with the Flyers doing that any time soon. Hilferty worships the Bullies so all major hires require the Bob Clarke stamp of approval.

 

[Random Forest]

I wasn't just talking about the flyers board. This entire website is built on people forming opinions that cannot be swayed, even though outside of the 1st round it's an absolute crapshoot.

No one ever admits when they get things wrong. 95% of people here have never seen any of these kids play.

I’m as critical of this forum as anyone, but some things are clearly evident at the time. I believe success in hockey is far more random than people tend to acknowledge — this is why I don’t find myself getting outraged like others do — but it also means the name of the game is to maximize your probability to hit over enough events (draft picks, trades, etc). We have years and years of history indicating what kinds of decisions are probability-maximizing vs probability-minimizing.

You don’t have to claim with certainty that “this player will succeed and this player will fail” to make the point that “this was the wrong decision because the odds of it working are lower than the odds of foregone decision”. This is the frustration I have as someone who generally gives managers a lot of rope because I understand that the “best process” can often fail, and the “worst process” may sometimes succeed by no factors related to the skill of the decision makers.

 

[BigToe]

Canes taking another one of my guys

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

One look at the arc of the careers of 5 star QB recruits is all you need to visualize this. They’re one holy hell of a lot more reliable than they used to be.

Yeah even at the recruiting service industry. 247Sports & now On3 pretty much left Rivals & ESPN in the dust because they’ve taken a more modern approach in scouting which is pretty data driven.

Some of these guys that are apart of those scouting departments of those services are getting hired by P4 schools too to help them in those areas.

 

[ponder719]

The Canes are going to be an amazing experiment in how good HFBoards would be at running a team.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Canes taking another one of my guys

He's an '05. Don't get excited.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flyers trying to get out of there asap

A team that needs to be rebuilding is again going to pick as few players as possible, while also going for fit over quality.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The Sens.

 

[Appleyard]

I think Canes have taken 5x guys with top ~90 pick "talent" so far.

5/5 Euros too aha. I mean... Euros are a bigger inefficiency in terms of NHL teams evaluation.

 

[renberg]

Good luck with the Flyers doing that any time soon. Hilferty worships the Bullies so all major hires require the Bob Clarke stamp of approval.

And that's why they will continue to lose. A decade ago the Flyers and the NHL were not a fringe sport in town. Now they are. Why? For the Phillies it was an owner who had the sense to hire DD and rebuild the franchise on modern thinking. It's been pretty much the same thing with the Eagles-Lurie and Roseman. The Flyers are not that way and are where they are as a result. It'll show in declining interest-falling ticket sales; poor tv and radio ratings; drop in sales for paraphernalia; etc. Hiring a controversial coach from time to time in order to stir interest may cause a blip in this trend but the downward spiral is in full motion. It'll continue until Comcast either sells the club or hires an innovative management team and breaks with the past.