GDT: 2024 NHL Draft - (1st Round - 6/28 at 7PM ET and Remainder of Draft - 6/29 at 11:30AM ET)

[sa cyred]

I always enjoy the absolute certainty in people's convictions about 17 year old kids. You would swear that the draft is dead easy and you just follow the consensus.

TBF, it’s not like the Flyers have been a team that has fantastically drafted well. Like I mean, they are probably in the bottom of the league with it

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I understand the philosophy here completely. What I don't personally know is how the NHL sets up their departments. I can speak to the NFL.

Generally, A prospects are those given a Grade of Round 1-3. At least five people do indpendent evaluations -- the local area Scout (Southeast, etc), the regional Scout (East), a national Scout, the head of College Scouting, and then the AGM or whoever is ultimately in charge of the amateur wing. That's 4 independent instances of cross-checking designed to filter out outliers.

Then of course it's up to the decision makers to synthesize the info well.

The NHL would probably shudder at the MLB’s set up when it comes to drafting process.

Do they really even send scouts on the road for live viewings as much anymore?

 

[Appleyard]

@Appleyard You would probably know. Is there a similar level of cross-checking in the NHL? That’s often 100+ players per class with that kind of independent detail down to the studs.

Yeh. Though the scouting departments I am more tapped into on a smaller level (either directly or through other guys who talk about them) are... well... some of the better drafting teams recently.

Though maybe not 5 points of cross-checking. Maybe 3-4.

 

[Tripod]

My wife: "why are you a fan of a team that brings you no joy? Just switch teams"

She isn't wrong

 

[Random Forest]

I always enjoy the absolute certainty in people's convictions about 17 year old kids. You would swear that the draft is dead easy and you just follow the consensus.

I don’t think the draft is “easy” but I think it’s obvious that teams suffer greatly from overthinking their evaluations. You could match the output of half these teams with no scouting department at all. A decent algorithm using publicly available information would do better than teams with full scouting departments sitting around talking about players “playing the right way” or “putting it all together” and other classic hockey tropes.

 

[FLYguy3911]

People around here evaluate the process more than anything.

Like how can you compare the process between a contending team like Carolina and this team and feel good about the direction of the franchise?

Edit: Utah selects the first player not on my spreadsheet. Congrats.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don’t think the draft is “easy” but I think it’s obvious that teams suffer greatly from overthinking their evaluations. You could match the output of half these teams with no scouting department at all. A decent algorithm using publicly available information would do better than teams with full scouting departments sitting around talking about players “playing the right way” or “putting it all together” and other classic hockey tropes.

There are NFL projects that compare consensus public boards to what teams do. We have meaningful evidence this holds true.

Where they tend to fail are in the medicals, which makes perfect sense.

 

[Random Forest]

There are NFL projects that compare consensus public boards to what teams do. We have meaningful evidence this holds true.

Where they tend to fail are in the medicals, which makes perfect sense.

Exactly. And at least in the NFL, you have the benefit of knowing exactly what your needs are with players who will step in immediately. Lots more randomness & uncertainty in the NHL draft means less edge from squawking about scouting reports and more edge from finding and arbitraging mis-pricings.

 

[Danko]

there it is

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

The fact that this f***ing team is letting themselves be bullied around by literally a f***ing agent is f***ing dumb. f***ing spineless nitwits.

 

[Appleyard]

there it is

I was not going to be the first one to say it because where I have heard it from (albeit multiple sources) has been more conjecture from the non-NHL side of things and no one really "tapped in" to Flyers.

But yeh. Kurt Overhardt...

 

[Tarpongg]

In the history of rebuilds, has a team ever waited nearly 100 picks in the heart of the draft?

 

[mr figgles]

TBF, it’s not like the Flyers have been a team that has fantastically drafted well. Like I mean, they are probably in the bottom of the league with it

They usually do well in the first, so Jett will probably be an NHLer, but it’s more than likely Buium will be better.

 

[BigToe]

That’s an interesting pick. Haven’t seen him but he produced well. Might be something there.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@FLYguy3911 I’m sitting here remembering the time your post got me to look into just how bad of an idea it is to move up late in the draft. Yeah. Here we are again.

(This is not an evaluation of the player. I have no idea who he is.)

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

there it is

And Sean Walker and Joel Farabee.

 

[Tarpongg]

That’s an interesting pick. Haven’t seen him but he produced well. Might be something there.

Like it more than Berglund for sure

 

[FLYguy3911]

@FLYguy3911 I’m sitting here remembering the time your post got me to look into just how bad of an idea it is to move up late in the draft. Yeah. Here we are again.

(This is not an evaluation of the player. I have no idea who he is.)

Yeah I'm biting my tongue at the moment. Howie Roseman without the track record of getting surplus value in most trades.

What was the trade exactly? Edit: nvm

 

[GKJ]

Flyers trying to get out of there asap

 

[Curufinwe]

I always enjoy the absolute certainty in people's convictions about 17 year old kids. You would swear that the draft is dead easy and you just follow the consensus.

The Flyers drafting record after the 1st round is awful. Enjoy that.

 

[pit]

Flyers picks so far:
C
C
D
C

(This isn't grading, this is position. So yeah, fit fit fit.)

 

[Sombastate]

Will anyone have a worse draft rating than the flyers?

 

[Appleyard]

 

[BiggE]

A short tourney is the best way to rate prospects, yay team.

 

[Tripod]

Flyers picks so far:
C
C
D
C

(This isn't grading, this is position. So yeah, fit fit fit.)

Pretty sad when the grading is WORSE.