GDT: 2024 NHL Draft - (1st Round - 6/28 at 7PM ET and Remainder of Draft - 6/29 at 11:30AM ET)

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Random Forest

Registered User
May 12, 2010
14,631
1,319
I know everyone doesn't follow football, but one of the big takeaways from the avalanche of data that we have gotten in the last decade or so is that while no one is great at drafting, the ones who are worse at it than everyone else are those that are overconfident in their personal board.

That's the Flyers in a nutshell. And it's so much worse to do it in a sport where projections are for significantly younger players.
Really think teams would make smarter picks by cutting their scouting departments by 80%. These people fall in love with players. Their whole job is to tell you to disbelief what the hard evidence suggests.
 

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,989
108,826
Really think teams would make smarter picks by cutting their scouting departments by 80%. These people fall in love with players. Their whole job is to tell you to disbelief what the hard evidence suggests.

I understand the philosophy here completely. What I don't personally know is how the NHL sets up their departments. I can speak to the NFL.

Generally, A prospects are those given a Grade of Round 1-3. At least five people do indpendent evaluations -- the local area Scout (Southeast, etc), the regional Scout (East), a national Scout, the head of College Scouting, and then the AGM or whoever is ultimately in charge of the amateur wing. That's 4 independent instances of cross-checking designed to filter out outliers.

Then of course it's up to the decision makers to synthesize the info well.
 

ellja3

Registered User
May 19, 2014
2,111
3,804
Ķekava, Latvia
Ēriks Mateiko (LW from Latvia) #90 to Caps. Was predicted to go 2nd-3rd round, so expected and - nice. The particular franchise he was drafted tho, ugh. But can't have it all.
 
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BritainStix

Registered User
Oct 20, 2016
6,725
9,798
I always enjoy the absolute certainty in people's convictions about 17 year old kids. You would swear that the draft is dead easy and you just follow the consensus.
 

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,989
108,826
I understand the philosophy here completely. What I don't personally know is how the NHL sets up their departments. I can speak to the NFL.

Generally, A prospects are those given a Grade of Round 1-3. At least five people do indpendent evaluations -- the local area Scout (Southeast, etc), the regional Scout (East), a national Scout, the head of College Scouting, and then the AGM or whoever is ultimately in charge of the amateur wing. That's 4 independent instances of cross-checking designed to filter out outliers.

Then of course it's up to the decision makers to synthesize the info well.

@Appleyard You would probably know. Is there a similar level of cross-checking in the NHL? That’s often 100+ players per class with that kind of independent detail down to the studs.
 

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