NFL: 2024 NFL draft discussion thread, Draft begins 4/25 8pm, 4/26 6pm, 4/27 12pm

[GKJ]

Would he be checked out if he was emotional as he was after the Washington game? No that's a man putting his heart and soul into the team.


Being fair to Caleb Williams instead of attacking his character because the cancerous aggregator accounts on twitter have basically been writing unquestioned hit pieces on him. Bravo sir!

Maybe he knew that’s all he had left mentally.

 

[Dr Salt]

Maybe he knew that’s all he had left mentally.

Were slandering a college kid who balled out but couldn't win every game why?

 

[GKJ]

Were slandering a college kid who balled out but couldn't win every game why?

I got news for you about how the NFL player evaluation process works during draft season.

 

[Dr Salt]

I got news for you about how the NFL player evaluation process works during draft season.

I know that, and I think you evaluate players with facts and interviews and not make stuff up about their character. Where is the proof that he checked out mentally? He still played well in his final two games against Oregon and UCLA.

 

[GKJ]

I know that, and I think you evaluate players with facts and interviews and not make stuff up about their character. Where is the proof that he checked out mentally? He still played well in his final two games against Oregon and UCLA.

I don’t know that he played that well against Oregon. His defense didn’t throw 3 interceptions in the first half against Notre Dame. And that stuff can just happen, he had a clearly worse season this year than he did in 2022, perhaps because the schedule was much harder, in 22 he didn’t have to play Washington or Oregon (even though the Washington game was good), but the other quarterbacks got better, and he did not. Pointing that out as a concern is the nature of the beast. USC’s season falling apart, while it’s not all his fault, and it doesn’t erase what he did the year before, it that does naturally call to question. A lot of questions, to a lot of people.

Quarterbacks who have been hearing how great they are in college that find figuring out the NFL to be much more difficult than they, or everyone, thought is not a new concept.

 

[John Price]

 

[Dr Salt]

I don’t know that he played that well against Oregon. His defense didn’t throw 3 interceptions in the first half against Notre Dame. And that stuff can just happen, he had a clearly worse season this year than he did in 2022, perhaps because the schedule was much harder, in 22 he didn’t have to play Washington or Oregon (even though the Washington game was good), but the other quarterbacks got better, and he did not. Pointing that out as a concern is the nature of the beast. USC’s season falling apart, while it’s not all his fault, and it doesn’t erase what he did the year before, it that does naturally call to question. A lot of questions, to a lot of people.

Quarterbacks who have been hearing how great they are in college that find figuring out the NFL to be much more difficult than they, or everyone, thought is not a new concept.

The Notre Dame game was perhaps like his one actual bad game in his USC career. All I'm saying is the statistical regression is a symptom of USC putting him in holes. Any QB, be as good as Patrick Mahomes, as volatile as Jared Goff, or as dogshit as Mac Jones will play better when they aren't constantly in a hole and are playing on a positive gamescript. I would argue that guys like CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, or Trevor Lawrence played their best football not in their final college season, and are still pretty awesome.

 

[GKJ]

The Notre Dame game was perhaps like his one actual bad game in his USC career. All I'm saying is the statistical regression is a symptom of USC putting him in holes. Any QB, be as good as Patrick Mahomes, as volatile as Jared Goff, or as dogshit as Mac Jones will play better when they aren't constantly in a hole and are playing on a positive gamescript. I would argue that guys like CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, or Trevor Lawrence played their best football not in their final college season, and are still pretty awesome.

Well that's fine to evaluate it that way. Every team is always going to believe in their building and staff and what they can control, but that doesn't assume that out of hand what is a product or a symptom, that's just part of the process. It's their job to ask those questions and evaluate and then make the correct call. There's a thousand different variables, and it's just as likely he's put in the same situations he saw this past season as it is that he doesn't, and how he reacts and adapts will be important, and it's the same for everyone else too.

 

[Peat]

The way I look at Williams is he's had two NCAA seasons where he could have gone 1OA on the back of them. That the worst of them happened more recently isn't a big deal. Variance happens. If I'm willing to consider him at 1OA based on what happens when it doesn't go so well, knowing it can go even better is a bonus.

 

[Unholy Diver]

With all the FA QB movement, are the Bears going to be left holding the bag WRT Justin Fields? Seems like his market is quickly drying up

 

[Jovavic]

With all the FA QB movement, are the Bears going to be left holding the bag WRT Justin Fields? Seems like his market is quickly drying up

Vikings? Broncos?

 

[Unholy Diver]

Vikings? Broncos?

Vikings just signed Darnold, and would the Bears really deal him within the division? I would think only if the Vikings over paid

Broncos are still open, would Payton be willing to take on a project?

Maybe some team with an old starter would take him on as a future investment, but I would think the idea of the Bears getting a 2nd or 3rd back for him at this point is very unlikely, they might be lucky to even get a 4th now

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Bears should hold onto him if there is no market

Some QB will get hurt in camp/preseason/season and open trade possibility

If Fields doesn't like it,, who cares. He isn't first guy to lose his job

 

[StreetHawk]

Vikings just signed Darnold, and would the Bears really deal him within the division? I would think only if the Vikings over paid

Broncos are still open, would Payton be willing to take on a project?

Maybe some team with an old starter would take him on as a future investment, but I would think the idea of the Bears getting a 2nd or 3rd back for him at this point is very unlikely, they might be lucky to even get a 4th now

Payton's scheme doesn't see to fit Field's strengths. Like a lot of these offensive gurus, they want guys to run their system and execute the play as designed.

Only real veteran starter out there are Tanny and Jimmy G. Jimmy's arm is toast so don't see him there.

Pretty much every team has someone you can say could be their starter, though some would love an upgrade if possible, if not this season then next where they could sit a young kid.

 

[Scomerica]

Got to trust the process with the Seahawks. I'm glad they cut the players they cut and i'm glad they didn't do dumb stuff like give Damien Lewis the contract he got but it's tough seeing guards and lb'ers getting snapped up

Payton's scheme doesn't see to fit Field's strengths. Like a lot of these offensive gurus, they want guys to run their system and execute the play as designed.

Only real veteran starter out there are Tanny and Jimmy G. Jimmy's arm is toast so don't see him there.

Pretty much every team has someone you can say could be their starter, though some would love an upgrade if possible, if not this season then next where they could sit a young kid.

I think the downside of Fields is that even if he's good for you, you get one cheap year before you have to pay him. No team is likely to give good draft capital up for that when there is good qb's in the draft.

The Seahawks keep being linked to him but we don't have draft capital and a ton of holes.

 

[StreetHawk]

Got to trust the process with the Seahawks. I'm glad they cut the players they cut and i'm glad they didn't do dumb stuff like give Damien Lewis the contract he got but it's tough seeing guards and lb'ers getting snapped up


I think the downside of Fields is that even if he's good for you, you get one cheap year before you have to pay him. No team is likely to give good draft capital up for that when there is good qb's in the draft.

The Seahawks keep being linked to him but we don't have draft capital and a ton of holes.

It's not even a cheap year as you would have decide on the $25 mill 5th year option right away before he takes 1 snap for you. And that is $25 mill in cash and cap hit for that 5th year. Really a 2 year $29 mill commitment when he walks in. Unless you opt not to pick it up and use the Tag if necessary, but that would be a higher charge in the $30's.

 

[Scomerica]

It's not even a cheap year as you would have decide on the $25 mill 5th year option right away before he takes 1 snap for you. And that is $25 mill in cash and cap hit for that 5th year. Really a 2 year $29 mill commitment when he walks in. Unless you opt not to pick it up and use the Tag if necessary, but that would be a higher charge in the $30's.

Agreed. We need a second QB now with Lock gone. I could realistically see us trading back and hoping to grab one of Penix or Nix if Denver doesn't take him and have them learn behind Geno. You can't evaluate Fields if Geno is starting.

 

[StreetHawk]

Agreed. We need a second QB now with Lock gone. I could realistically see us trading back and hoping to grab one of Penix or Nix if Denver doesn't take him and have them learn behind Geno. You can't evaluate Fields if Geno is starting.

Have Geno under contract, so only need a young guy, but should eye someone with some experience. I wished Rourke signed with Seattle as QB3 last year vs sign in Jax. Not sure if that was an option, but Seattle made more sense given Lock's contract status for 2024 for him to go from PS in 2023 to a legit chance to backup in 2024. Though, he'd be doing it with a new OC. He's kind of in limbo now, being on Jax most of last season then claimed by NE and they are going to take a QB. Maybe they carry 3 QBs on the roster and he gets the $800K salary he would be due on the main roster. You typically see teams with a first or second year highly drafted QB run with 3 QBs. But, not sure if someone who has no experience in the NFL like Rourke is likely to be their desired QB3.

 

[Scomerica]

Have Geno under contract, so only need a young guy, but should eye someone with some experience. I wished Rourke signed with Seattle as QB3 last year vs sign in Jax. Not sure if that was an option, but Seattle made more sense given Lock's contract status for 2024 for him to go from PS in 2023 to a legit chance to backup in 2024. Though, he'd be doing it with a new OC. He's kind of in limbo now, being on Jax most of last season then claimed by NE and they are going to take a QB. Maybe they carry 3 QBs on the roster and he gets the $800K salary he would be due on the main roster. You typically see teams with a first or second year highly drafted QB run with 3 QBs. But, not sure if someone who has no experience in the NFL like Rourke is likely to be their desired QB3.

I could see a Joe Milton/Jordan Travis developmental one in the lower rounds depending on how the draft goes. Given the Aaron Rodgers new about him running as RFK jr's vice president, I wonder if he 'retires' since he'd have to campaign (despite no chance of winning). That complicates things if the Jets need a QB.

I get the impression Pete went all in last year thinking they were a contender and it backfired. The defense played well to start the year until teams figured them out and the DC had no answers.

 

[StreetHawk]

I could see a Joe Milton/Jordan Travis developmental one in the lower rounds depending on how the draft goes. Given the Aaron Rodgers new about him running as RFK jr's vice president, I wonder if he 'retires' since he'd have to campaign (despite no chance of winning). That complicates things if the Jets need a QB.

It would be so Jets to give up a 1st and 2nd for only 4 regular season snaps from ARod.

I'm not a fan of using day 2 picks on a QB unless you will commit the 2 years to develop the kid as a day 2 pick can contribute in the first 2 years. Otherwise, wait til day 3 to take your shot and hope you can find someone.

Last 3 drafts of day 2 QBs are like Trask, Mond, Mills, Willis, Corral, Levis, Hooker.

Trask, in 3 years never started a game. Mond is cut. Mills started 2 years so has shown enough to be a backup for a while in the NFL. Willis, shown he's super raw and not sure new Titans regime will keep him past camp. Corral cut twice and headed to UFL this spring. Levis gets his shot this season, but he needs to show well. Easy for a new regime to move on. Hooker, backup to Goff, but with the Cousins deal, that makes Goff's new contract after this season interesting. Hooker needs a big pre-season to make Detroit think he could be their guy if the negotiations with Goff go sideways.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I would assume

#1 - Williams - Bears
#2 - Commanders - Maye or Daniels
#3 - Patriots - Maye or Daniels

I assume Vikings are planning to trade up into top 6 (Giants maybe at #6 target) to grab McCarthy given move today (Trading for another 1st round pick)

Crazy because Nix or Penix could also go some point in 1st (Especially near end if team trades in to grab one)

People weren't lying months ago about this being QB draft

 

[StreetHawk]

I assume Vikings are planning to trade up into top 6 (Giants maybe at #6 target) to grab McCarthy given move today (Trading for another 1st round pick)

Crazy because Nix or Penix could also go some point in 1st (Especially near end if team trades in to grab one)

People weren't lying months ago about this being QB draft

Giants also potentially in a trade up situation. They are likely done with Jones who can be cut after 2024, though they have a lot of dead cap of $22 mill to eat. With the Minn/Hou trade, they likely can't just sit at 6 and get JJ if he's the guy they would take.
Can afford to sit JJ and run with Lock and Jones (when he returns from his acl)

Where Nix/Penix go is up in the air. As high as Denver at 12, but could potentially be very late rd 1 in a trade back into rd 1 scenario to secure the 5th year option.

 

[cheechoo]

I'm thinking the Chargers are the trade up spot. And then they'd get Fuaga or Latham at 11 along with extra assets.

NYG probably take Odunze or Nabers.

 

[Tony Romo]

Are we sure the bears are taking Caleb and not trading the pick?

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Are we sure the bears are taking Caleb and not trading the pick?

Unless something goes wrong with Bears meeting Williams (I believe next week) it seems safe bet they draft him

It would be shocking to see them trade pick and almost hard to defend (Though a massive haul would be easier to defend)

I suspect Bears move down from #9 to recoup some picks in this draft not #1

If they do trade down from #1 it will have to be historic haul or close to it to defend

At end of day I am still not sold on Williams as the answer. Personally I like Maye and Daniels in this draft QB class.

Fields at QB would be bitter pill to swallow and Poles would be putting his job on line if that is what he decided to do