NFL: 2024 NFL draft discussion thread, Draft begins 4/25 8pm, 4/26 6pm, 4/27 12pm

[Big Poppa Puck]

McCarthy is either going in the top 12 or in the 2nd round (maybe 32 if someone wants to trade up for the 5th year.) I'm not sure if the hype is real or if this is Malik Willis/Will Levis again.

I don't know what to think, he didn't have to do much in college, and previously I wanted the Vikings to stay far away at 11 thinking it would be Ponder part 2. I've been kinda talked in to "meh" if that is indeed the pick at 11, especially if Cousins leaves. You have to take a shot at some point. I want no parts of Bo Nix or Penix at 11.

Even with Ponder, I knew that was a reach as I had him going round 2, but I also understood why they did it with only Joe Webb on the roster and mid-lockout. I probably would have taken Dalton if I was reaching there both in the moment and in hindsight. That was also considered a "deep" QB class and most of them sucked other than Newton. Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Mallet all busts. Dalton was decent and Kaepernick was ok for a few years. You can argue Tyrod Taylor was the 3rd best QB in that class and he went in the 6th

Out of Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix there's a good chance at least half of em are complete busts. And maybe a 4th hangs around as a backup/fringe starter.

 

[StreetHawk]

McCarthy is either going in the top 12 or in the 2nd round (maybe 32 if someone wants to trade up for the 5th year.) I'm not sure if the hype is real or if this is Malik Willis/Will Levis again.

I don't know what to think, he did have to do much in college, and previously I wanted the Vikings to stay far away at 11 thinking it would be Ponder part 2. I've been kinda talked in to "meh" if that is indeed the pick at 11, especially if Cousins leaves. You have to take a shot at some point. I want no parts of Bo Nix or Penix at 11.

Even with Ponder, I knew that was a reach as I had him going round 2, but I also understood why they did it with only Joe Webb on the roster and mid-lockout. I probably would have taken Dalton if I was reaching there both in the moment and in hindsight. That was also considered a "deep" QB class and most of them sucked other than Newton. Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Mallet all busts. Dalton was decent and Kaepernick was ok for a few years. You can argue Tyrod Taylor was the 3rd best QB in that class and he went in the 6th

Out of Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix there's a good chance at least half of em are complete busts. And maybe a 4th hangs around as a backup/fringe starter.

I'm sure those teams in the 8-13 range like ATL, DEN, LV, MIN would like to trade down and gain an extra 3rd (minimum or upwards of a 2nd) but the risk is then the QB that they like gets taken ahead of them.

 

[Donnie740]

So pretty much the RG3 trade.

Given the haul they already have from Carolina and maybe a nice return from Fields and their own #7 the Bears shouldn't get cute.

Peyton Manning was a sure-fire franchise QB when he went first overall.

Over the past 25yrs since then, there’s been EIGHTEEN (18) quarterbacks selected #1 overall and only TWO (2) of them have gone on to win a Super Bowl.

For context purposes, in the 25yrs prior to that there was a grand total of EIGHT (8) selected and half of them ended up winning a Super Bowl.

 

[Hasbro]

Peyton Manning was a sure-fire franchise QB when he went first overall.

Over the past 25yrs since then, there’s been EIGHTEEN (18) quarterbacks selected #1 overall and only TWO (2) of them have gone on to win a Super Bowl.

For context purposes, in the 25yrs prior to that there was a grand total of EIGHT (8) selected and half of them ended up winning a Super Bowl.

3 more made it (Burrow, Newton, Goff). 3 more were worth the pick (Vick, Luck, Palmer) and the Jury is still out on 4 (Lawrence, Murray, Mayfield and Young). Also Two teams the have picked #1 since then have won the Super Bowl (KC and TB).

I'm all for Chicago getting a case of galaxy brain here.

 

[Romang67]

Why The Chicago Bears Need To Draft Caleb Williams

Just Fields or Caleb Williams - Who will the Chicago Bears pick with the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft? Find out in this in-depth article!

www.footballguys.com

First overall picks are considerably more likely to become prolific passers, long term starters, and pro bowlers than are other first round QBs.

The Panthers trade broke people's brains. A trade between the Bears and the Falcons where the Falcons only give up draft capital is likely going to result in the Falcons winning the god-awful NFC South and the Bears getting first round picks in the 20s.

 

[Peat]

I saw an analysis someone did where, even forecasting future 1sts as 20th overall, the Bears could expect more value over replacement from taking a haul for 1OA vs taking the QB.

I also think the Bears need to consider that if they bet on Fields and are wrong, they're probably back in the top 10 next year.

For me it comes down to whether you think Williams is an average 1OA or a great one.

 

[GKJ]

I saw an analysis someone did where, even forecasting future 1sts as 20th overall, the Bears could expect more value over replacement from taking a haul for 1OA vs taking the QB.

I also think the Bears need to consider that if they bet on Fields and are wrong, they're probably back in the top 10 next year.

For me it comes down to whether you think Williams is an average 1OA or a great one.

If they bet on Fields and are wrong, everyone’s going to be fired anyways. They probably should’ve been this year, but they started picking up some wins.

 

[StreetHawk]

If they bet on Fields and are wrong, everyone’s going to be fired anyways. They probably should’ve been this year, but they started picking up some wins.

Right and then those extra draft picks are for the next gm to use not Poles. So massive decision for him to get right for his own future as well.

 

[Peat]

If they bet on Fields and are wrong, everyone’s going to be fired anyways. They probably should’ve been this year, but they started picking up some wins.

Barring a guarantee that's not the case from the owner, that's probably true and probably the deciding factor.

 

[Donnie740]

I saw an analysis someone did where, even forecasting future 1sts as 20th overall, the Bears could expect more value over replacement from taking a haul for 1OA vs taking the QB.

I also think the Bears need to consider that if they bet on Fields and are wrong, they're probably back in the top 10 next year.

For me it comes down to whether you think Williams is an average 1OA or a great one.

I don’t even see Caleb Williams as being even an average QB - - he’s more likely mediocre to bust calibre. Way too many red flags from watching him in college.

Bears GM and coach are going to be fired if they draft Williams and he struggles.

Fields won them 7 games last year in spite of the off-field gong show in Chicago, including 4 wins in their last 6 games. More importantly, six of their ten losses were by one score.

The Bears with Fields are much closer to double digit wins than most people realize. Especially if they add in two top ten picks in the first round this year plus another two picks in the top of round 2.

Drafting Williams and dealing Fields puts Chicago right back at square one of a rebuild.

 

[Romang67]

I don’t even see Caleb Williams as being even an average QB - - he’s more likely mediocre to bust calibre. Way too many red flags from watching him in college.

Bears GM and coach are going to be fired if they draft Williams and he struggles.

Fields won them 7 games last year in spite of the off-field gong show in Chicago, including 4 wins in their last 6 games. More importantly, six of their ten losses were by one score.

The Bears with Fields are much closer to double digit wins than most people realize. Especially if they add in two top ten picks in the first round this year plus another two picks in the top of round 2.

Drafting Williams and dealing Fields puts Chicago right back at square one of a rebuild.

Fields didn't win 7 games last season.

6 QB needy teams passed on Fields in the 2021 draft because of the clear limitations he had as a pocket passer. He hasn't developed that. It's time to move on.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, Fields was 5-8. 5-7 if you remove the game he didn't finish.

 

[StreetHawk]

The Bears with Fields are much closer to double digit wins than most people realize. Especially if they add in two top ten picks in the first round this year plus another two picks in the top of round 2.

Drafting Williams and dealing Fields puts Chicago right back at square one of a rebuild.

Reality is that the post rookie deal contract will also be a factor.

Last season, there were like 4 QBs who were neither at a $30 mill plus deal nor on a rookie contract as starters last season (in terms of real money paid to them).

Geno Smith got $27 mill total which only year 1 was fully guarantee.
Jimmy G got $34 mill guaranteed, so it was expected to be a 2 year deal for $23 mill average.
Baker, resurrection deal, was like $8.5 mill.
Goff at $26 mill but not guaranteed.

Cousins was mid $30 mill. Carr, was either $60 mill for 1 year or 2 years for $35 mill based on details of the contract.

So, Chicago has to be confident enough in Fields to then pay him a big contract after the 2024 season.

 

[The Note]

Williams is the type of talent you bet on with a first overall pick and go from there. He’s not a finished product, but no QB prospect ever will be and there’s always risk in drafting a QB. I’m not going to pretend to be some QB draft guru but enough people I trust and like have done a good job of breaking Williams down - both strengths and flaws - and the talent is plainly there to see. If you want to trade down for more picks, hope that one of MIN/LV/DEN falls in love with McCarthy and trades up to 9. Or just take another really good player there! I also don’t think you can overstate the value of resetting the rookie QB contract on top of everything else. Justin Fields shouldn’t preempt you from taking a blue chip QB prospect.

 

[GKJ]

I don’t know about Williams or any of these guys either to know that they can or can’t make it. I know who I like the most and who I don’t, but guys who have the talent, mind, coachability, that’s going to get decided later when they take on the offenses and have coaches who don’t f*** you up. Just don’t draft the ‘toolsy’ guys because you think you can build the toolbox for them. They’re the high-risk busts.

 

[Donnie740]

So, Chicago has to be confident enough in Fields to then pay him a big contract after the 2024 season.

There’s nothing that compels Chicago to overpay Fields with a $40M to $50M contract. That’s where teams get tunnel vision and become capped out bottom feeders.

He’s a $6M cap hit in 2024 and if they pick up his option it’s a $26M cap hit in 2025. That’s two more years at a very, VERY, reasonable price.

After 2025, the Bears can simply walk away and let someone else give Fields a $50M multi year boat anchor.

The reality is, if you’ve got a strong team you can win with a mediocre QB off the scrap heap. Look at what the Eagles did with that scrub Nick Foles. The 49ers have been to the Super Bowl with two different gimps at QB - - Jim Garoppolo and Broke Purdy.

 

[StreetHawk]

There’s nothing that compels Chicago to overpay Fields with a $40M to $50M contract. That’s where teams get tunnel vision and become capped out bottom feeders.

He’s a $6M cap hit in 2024 and if they pick up his option it’s a $26M cap hit in 2025. That’s two more years at a very, VERY, reasonable price.

After 2025, the Bears can simply walk away and let someone else give Fields a $50M multi year boat anchor.

The reality is, if you’ve got a strong team you can win with a mediocre QB off the scrap heap. Look at what the Eagles did with that scrub Nick Foles. The 49ers have been to the Super Bowl with two different gimps at QB - - Jim Garoppolo and Broke Purdy.

The Bears, if they decide Fields is their guy have to pick up the 5th year option. What I mean, is that if Fields is the guy, the expectation/hope from the Bears is that he does play well enough to warrant that kind of big contract. Otherwise, what will they have at QB if he's not good enought to warrant a big payday. Not many QBs in that middle of the pack that sit between a rookie contract and the big money. Goff/Tanny at $27 mill with no guaranteed money as they signed a few years ago. Geno/Jimmy/Baker signed this past year with only Jimmy getting some guaranteed money in 2024 (which now due to his PED suspension, he's lost).

Bears, they made it to a SB with Grossman at QB. And with Indy not kicking to Hester got the ball around their own 35 and still couldn't score enough.

They'd have to find that magical fit that Foles was for Philly.

 

[Unholy Diver]

The Bears, if they decide Fields is their guy have to pick up the 5th year option. What I mean, is that if Fields is the guy, the expectation/hope from the Bears is that he does play well enough to warrant that kind of big contract. Otherwise, what will they have at QB if he's not good enought to warrant a big payday. Not many QBs in that middle of the pack that sit between a rookie contract and the big money. Goff/Tanny at $27 mill with no guaranteed money as they signed a few years ago. Geno/Jimmy/Baker signed this past year with only Jimmy getting some guaranteed money in 2024 (which now due to his PED suspension, he's lost).

Bears, they made it to a SB with Grossman at QB. And with Indy not kicking to Hester got the ball around their own 35 and still couldn't score enough.

They'd have to find that magical fit that Foles was for Philly.

Over the last 30 seasons, 4 teams have won SB's without a HOF or soon to be HOF QB's, the idea of winning SB's with mid level QB's is not realistic

 

[Dr Salt]

You don't pass up on Caleb Williams, crazy overthink. You win in this league with the best of the best at the QB position, wth indicates Fields will be? Hell Williams is a better prospect than Fields was and Fields' value has only tanked since then. For anyone mentioning the "haul" take a second to think why there'd be one for Williams but not Fields.

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

It's not sexy or flashy, but this would be the kind of ideal draft I'd love for the Lions to have, along with picking up a few key guys in free agency to bolster the pass rush.

 

[Melrose Munch]

@GKJ @StreetHawk what is this about? Why aren't guys going to the combine?

 

[GKJ]

@GKJ @StreetHawk what is this about? Why aren't guys going to the combine?

He does explain it a bit there, those guys are going to be top 4-6 picks, at worst, so they only stand to lose and have nothing to gain working out in an environment that’s not as controlled to the degree their pro days are. We’ve seen those guys, that’s 2 Heisman winners and a finalist that could have won.

Maye didn’t have as good a season nor were his opponents any good, and he’s seeing Daniels go up the draft boards, so he’s fighting for his spot in the top 3 or 4.

 

[StreetHawk]

He does explain it a bit there, those guys are going to be top 4-6 picks, at worst, so they only stand to lose and have nothing to gain working out in an environment that’s not as controlled to the degree their pro days are. We’ve seen those guys, that’s 2 Heisman winners and a finalist that could have won.

Maye didn’t have as good a season nor were his opponents any good, and he’s seeing Daniels go up the draft boards, so he’s fighting for his spot in the top 3 or 4.

Agreed. I think Daniels knows he's going no worse than 3/4. As someone will trade up for him or Maye should they get past 3 in NE. At this point, not really about when you go but where you go to as a QB.

Chi - Not a big fan of them bringing back Eberflus to be on the hot seat with a rookie QB. Could end up like Nagy/Fields ago if the QB isn't great off the hop.

Wash, new regime, have cap room and some talent.

NE, now gone away from BB run team. Structure is in place, but will the new roster decision makers get it done. I didn't hear who their OC is.

MHJ, hyped as the top WR in the draft. Does everything very well. He'd love to go to AZ/LAC vs NYG, ATL, who currently don't have a QB.

Not a huge deal. I mean MHJ probably could go and not impact his draft status.

Just curious to see how Caleb measures height wise.

 

[Ben Grimm]

Michigan's J.J. McCarthy will be center of 2024 NFL Draft debate storm

There is always a player, often a QB, who inspires not just debate, but at times passionate support and/or vitriol. He serves as the cornerstone for the two or three months of “draft debate.”

sports.yahoo.com

 

[John Price]

Washington @ 2 to pick Caleb like