2024 Draft Discussion

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Small video on Stolberg. Imagine him and Seider on the same line

If we had another 1st I'd love to nab him. But other than dealing DeBrincat or a top prospect we're not getting one.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Really good point. I think it’s very hard to evaluate if the player has “more to give” versus what they are showing now. We got it right with Seider/Hronek, but a lot of teams have gotten this wrong too.

It’s kind of why I have a hard time being as high on some of these Russian defenseman playing in the KHL as others. Like I know Sam Dickinson can put up offense, he was in that role and did it all year in the OHL. I have no clue how Silayev’s skill set will translate as far as how much offense he’ll be able to create.

I remember a study from a few years back which showed that a CHL Defenseman's chances of sticking in the NHL were incredibly low if they did not score at a 0.55 ppg rate or above in their draft year. One likely explanation being just how much skill it takes to move the puck at the NHL level. These other professional leagues, while not to the same extent, likely rings true to a certain extent. I've never seen Silayev play in the KHL, but I'd wager that he had to possess a good amount of puck skill to play in the league as a 17 year old, and likely 11 points in 63 games is quite good production for a 17 year old in a men's league.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I remember a study from a few years back which showed that a CHL Defenseman's chances of sticking in the NHL were incredibly low if they did not score at a 0.55 ppg rate or above in their draft year. One likely explanation being just how much skill it takes to move the puck at the NHL level. These other professional leagues, while not to the same extent, likely rings true to a certain extent. I've never seen Silayev play in the KHL, but I'd wager that he had to possess a good amount of puck skill to play in the league as a 17 year old, and likely 11 points in 63 games is quite good production for a 17 year old in a men's league.

I want to like Silayev but the more I've read about him the more he sounds like Rasmus Ristolainen 2.0, or a faster Tyler Meyers. The athleticism is there. The skating and speed, great reach and willingness to play physical but if the IQ issues are true then he will be a frustrating player for whatever team he's on.

 

[Frk It]

I want to like Silayev but the more I've read about him the more he sounds like Rasmus Ristolainen 2.0, or a faster Tyler Meyers. The athleticism is there. The skating and speed, great reach and willingness to play physical but if the IQ issues are true then he will be a frustrating player for whatever team he's on.

I have a really hard time trying to make heard or tails on him as a player. Had the same issue with Simashev coming out.

You are doing so much projecting with these players, I feel like there is a very wide range of outcomes.

 

[lilidk]

I want to like Silayev but the more I've read about him the more he sounds like Rasmus Ristolainen 2.0, or a faster Tyler Meyers. The athleticism is there. The skating and speed, great reach and willingness to play physical but if the IQ issues are true then he will be a frustrating player for whatever team he's on.

His KHL points came from the beginning of the season, then he became just defensive defenseman and in the end when he played for MHL team during playoffs he was continue to play stay home defansman. 18 years old Edvinsson was so dominant on both sides , Silayev not. I don't understand why he's so high on the boards, but defenseman and goaltender is hard to predict when they are only 18

 

[Tatar Shots]

Digging in to the Black Book and it really is fantastic. They have a lot of quotes from NHL scouts. I checked Luchanko first as I think he's most similar to the type of player we have been drafting. They have him ranked 12th and really love him as a player. Also interesting that he receives nothing but praise in the scout quotes.

 

[lilidk]

Don't understand why USA u18 teams trying to get only NTDP guys and last tournament Musty was not on the team . Same with Canadians. Not taking Hage , probably because he plays in the USA, it's not a good strategy. No way Luchanko is better than Hage.

 

[lilidk]

If we had another 1st I'd love to nab him. But other than dealing DeBrincat or a top prospect we're not getting one.

The only reason I am against taking him at 15 because in the second it's ether Fischer or Pulkkinen

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

I'm fully on the MBN train if I wasn't before. Just thinking about even a 3rd line of
MBN-Kasper-Mazur in the playoffs makes me salivate.

 

[Frk It]

Digging in to the Black Book and it really is fantastic. They have a lot of quotes from NHL scouts. I checked Luchanko first as I think he's most similar to the type of player we have been drafting. They have him ranked 12th and really love him as a player. Also interesting that he receives nothing but praise in the scout quotes.

I could see us liking Luchanko a lot, same with Chernyshov.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Don't understand why USA u18 teams trying to get only NTDP guys and last tournament Musty was not on the team . Same with Canadians. Not taking Hage , probably because he plays in the USA, it's not a good strategy. No way Luchanko is better than Hage.

Musty turned down the NTDP to go to the O with Sudbury. Musty was more highly thought of than Smith, Perreault, Leonard coming out of minor hockey. We will see if USA Hockey puts him on the World Junior roster this year or not. Decent chance Musty gets a 9 game tryout in San Jose and then they make a decision, but he probably will go back to the O for his 19 year old season.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Not having read HP's Black Book, I wonder if scouts are seeing something of Brayden Point in Luchanko. Same size as Point now, seems to have similarly good IQ, work rate, skating ability.

Not buying the perception this is a really weak Draft and that Wings will get a lesser prospect at 15 than in most years for that reason. What could be a great Draft for defensemen is going to push a smaller group of top forwards down. Draft predictions about the OHL in particular have become a lot more optimistic and it's a good year for the WHL. Obviously a down year for the USNTDP and Sweden, but still more than enough quality forwards for where the Wings pick. Putting aside possibility of a trade, which could happen, there's a good chance IMO the Wings can pick a winger who turns out to be a reasonable facsimile of mid-round picks DeBrusk, Farabee or Mercer, any of whom would be a good addition. Or a defenseman that might go top 10-12 in another year could drop. There's lots to be optimistic about for this Draft.

Preferred top three picks: 1. C/W Helenius or RW MBN; 2. LW Mustard; 3. RW Wetsch.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Not having read HP's Black Book, I wonder if scouts are seeing something of Brayden Point in Luchanko. Same size as Point now, seems to have similarly good IQ, work rate, skating ability.

Not buying the perception this is a really weak Draft and that Wings will get a lesser prospect at 15 than in most years for that reason. What could be a great Draft for defensemen is going to push a smaller group of top forwards down. Draft predictions about the OHL in particular have become a lot more optimistic and it's a good year for the WHL. Obviously a down year for the USNTDP and Sweden, but still more than enough quality forwards for where the Wings pick. Putting aside possibility of a trade, which could happen, there's a good chance IMO the Wings can pick a winger who turns out to be a reasonable facsimile of mid-round picks DeBrusk, Farabee or Mercer, any of whom would be a good addition. Or a defenseman that might go top 10-12 in another year could drop. There's lots to be optimistic about for this Draft.

Preferred top three picks: 1. C/W Helenius or RW MBN; 2. LW Mustard; 3. RW Wetsch.

Suzuki is the player he was compared to the most. Better skater than Suzuki but a worse shot.

 

[Frk It]

Not having read HP's Black Book, I wonder if scouts are seeing something of Brayden Point in Luchanko. Same size as Point now, seems to have similarly good IQ, work rate, skating ability.

Not buying the perception this is a really weak Draft and that Wings will get a lesser prospect at 15 than in most years for that reason. What could be a great Draft for defensemen is going to push a smaller group of top forwards down. Draft predictions about the OHL in particular have become a lot more optimistic and it's a good year for the WHL. Obviously a down year for the USNTDP and Sweden, but still more than enough quality forwards for where the Wings pick. Putting aside possibility of a trade, which could happen, there's a good chance IMO the Wings can pick a winger who turns out to be a reasonable facsimile of mid-round picks DeBrusk, Farabee or Mercer, any of whom would be a good addition. Or a defenseman that might go top 10-12 in another year could drop. There's lots to be optimistic about for this Draft.

Preferred top three picks: 1. C/W Helenius or RW MBN; 2. LW Mustard; 3. RW Wetsch.

I think the more the year went on the better this draft has looked. Any time your have a down USDP class and a defenseman heavy class, I think you will get less hype.

That said I think there is a lot of talent from the OHL and WHL in this draft, and once again some undervalued talent in the USHL

Mustard would be the type of pick in round 2 I’m totally good with. Boisvert is also someone ranked in the low 20’s that i could see Detroit liking a lot more than the consensus. I think he has pretty underrated skill for a 6’2 center. I keep trying to find a way to rank him higher I just like a lot of the wingers in that range.

 

[Frk It]

Not having read HP's Black Book, I wonder if scouts are seeing something of Brayden Point in Luchanko. Same size as Point now, seems to have similarly good IQ, work rate, skating ability.

Definitely a possibility. What I would say though is I think Luchanko is a significantly better skater at the same age. And I think Point was more advanced offensively. But I can see some rhymes between the two.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Definitely a possibility. What I would say though is I think Luchanko is a significantly better skater at the same age. And I think Point was more advanced offensively. But I can see some rhymes between the two.

Luchanko physically and in terms of skating seems already what Point became within two years of being drafted. The Suzuki comparison in HP is interesting, though in the limited clips I've seen of Luchanko he doesn't come across as slick and clever with the puck. That's probably a superficial impression.

 

[lilidk]

Why didn't Yzerman take Moore with #17 pick last draft
Guy was very fast , hard to play against, 2 way center. Maybe because he doesn't want to build this team full of Danielson, Kasper and Mazur and maybe we should not expect him to get MBN even if he's available.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

ASP was still on the board at 17OA last year...still too early to tell, but I would have picked ASP.

 

[lilidk]

ASP was still on the board at 17OA last year...still too early to tell, but I would have picked ASP.

Why?

 

[SantosHalper]

Why didn't Yzerman take Moore with #17 pick last draft
Guy was very fast , hard to play against, 2 way center. Maybe because he doesn't want to build this team full of Danielson, Kasper and Mazur and maybe we should not expect him to get MBN even if he's available.

After the draft Yzerman said in the interview that, ASP is a player that we don't have in the system. And since he already picked a guy who is fast, hard to play against, 2-way center, it made sense to fill other organizational needs.

It definitely looks like Yzerman is building a team full of hard to play against types, since Lombardi/Buchelnikov-types are clear minority. Detroit is one of three teams that has interviewed MBN the most, i fully expect Detroit to pick him if he is available.

The way i see it, is that Detroit had the second 1st round pick and they used that to "pick" DeBrincat. Like ASP we didn't have a player like Cat in the system, so instead of waiting for 3-4 years for "hopefully DeBrincat" we got the actual DeBrincat instantly. And now Yzerman uses the remaining 1st to pick another hard to play against type.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Why?

Many on the board would have been happier if ASP was picked 9OA and Danielson at 17OA from memory last year, but personally, I was OK with the order.

SY took his top forward on his sheet at 9OA and then at 17 OA, I don't think SY (or anyone really) expected ASP to still be there so he grabbed him rather than a second forward.

I think SY was planning to pick at least 1 (maybe 2) RHD and a goalie in the second if he took 2 forwards in the first, but getting ASP unexpectedly, modified the plan on the fly.

I liked Moore at 17OA, but I think ASP was too good to pass up.

 

[lilidk]

After the draft Yzerman said in the interview that, ASP is a player that we don't have in the system. And since he already picked a guy who is fast, hard to play against, 2-way center, it made sense to fill other organizational needs.

It definitely looks like Yzerman is building a team full of hard to play against types, since Lombardi/Buchelnikov-types are clear minority. Detroit is one of three teams that has interviewed MBN the most, i fully expect Detroit to pick him if he is available.

The way i see it, is that Detroit had the second 1st round pick and they used that to "pick" DeBrincat. Like ASP we didn't have a player like Cat in the system, so instead of waiting for 3-4 years for "hopefully DeBrincat" we got the actual DeBrincat instantly. And now Yzerman uses the remaining 1st to pick another hard to play against type.

I hope Yzerman pick up some one that line driver, creative and skilled playmaker.
Lombardi and Buchelnikov could become something special for this team, but both already 20+ and probably not going to make big impact.

 

[SantosHalper]

I hope Yzerman pick up some one that line driver, creative and skilled playmaker.

Maybe through trade he gets one.

 

[lilidk]

Maybe through trade he gets one.

Doubt it. Teams will not trade away someone special with huge progress after draft unless Guy like Edvinsson goes other way. Marchant , Point and Datsyuk were not drafted in the first. Could Stiga or Artamonov could become something great or Hage, he will be available at 15 and for other 2 we could trade down. MBN will still still be very good pick, just bit boring

 

[SantosHalper]

Doubt it. Teams will not trade away someone special with huge progress after draft unless Guy like Edvinsson goes other way. Marchant , Point and Datsyuk were not drafted in the first. Could Stiga or Artamonov could become something great or Hage, he will be available at 15 and for other 2 we could trade down. MBN will still still be very good pick, just bit boring

They do if player wants out, like Necas does now and Cat felled to our lap. Tkachuk and Gaudreau also wanted to leave Canada, maybe Kyle Connor is the next good ol' 'merican boy who wants to come home. Finding next Marchand, Point or Datsyuk is easier said than done, no one can't really rely on that they find one.

MBN a bit boring? You mean he's boring because he ain't soft perimeter dangler who's only trying to score Michigan's? Strong physical forechecker with a hard shot is what i would call a effective player. Far from boring.