Speculation: 2024 and 2025 big UFAs

[pantherbot]

Well, Mikkola is a lot cheaper and better than Ekblad.

There's always some bozo GM who, in this case, thinks that Ekblad is a 6'4" stud man who is on the brink of becoming another Erik Karlsson and therefore is willing to cough up +$10mil per for his services.

Love Mikkola and was stoked with the signing, but he doesn't play the same minutes as Ekblad. Think we've been spoiled with finding Forsling on the trash heap and picking up Mikkola at a good price, plus Monty and Mahura. For next season if we want to keep Fors/Reino/Monty, just trading Ekblad isn't going to create enough space unless you're replacing him with some <$1M dman. Maybe our pro scouting department has something up their sleeve again.

I do wonder if there's a scenario we also trade Knight to create the space. Don't want to trade Knight, but he's not contributing to win-now and his cap hit handcuffs us. If we traded Ekblad and Knight, that would create enough space to sign Fors/Reino/Monty, replace Ekblad, and get futures back.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Love Mikkola and was stoked with the signing, but he doesn't play the same minutes as Ekblad. Think we've been spoiled with finding Forsling on the trash heap and picking up Mikkola at a good price, plus Monty and Mahura. For next season if we want to keep Fors/Reino/Monty, just trading Ekblad isn't going to create enough space unless you're replacing him with some <$1M dman. Maybe our pro scouting department has something up their sleeve again.

I do wonder if there's a scenario we also trade Knight to create the space. Don't want to trade Knight, but he's not contributing to win-now and his cap hit handcuffs us. If we traded Ekblad and Knight, that would create enough space to sign Fors/Reino/Monty, replace Ekblad, and get futures back.

Said it before but I really wish we didn't give Knight that contract. Not only it hurts us, it also lowers his trade value. One of the rare mistakes by Zito there.

 

[BeezKnees]

I love Bob and how he's been able to find his game here again the last couple of seasons. But this has to be the offseason he's gone. We really need that 10 mil in cap space for these signings.

imo we must pay to keep Forsling, V, and Reinhart. Montour and Bennett would be nice to keep at the right price, but honestly if it comes down to it, I'd rather retain a cheaper OEL than a massive montour contract. Ekblad looks like he might be the odd man out just because we need that cap room but I wonder if he's serious about wanting to stay in FLA if he considers taking a paycut down to 3-4m to stay.

 

[pantherbot]

I think we've got a good thing going and should try to extend what we have for as long as possible, and when I look at the roster, Bob looks like the one that's clearly not meant to be here for the long haul. I've liked him more than most during his time here and he's been really great since the playoffs, but his contract is structured to be traded after this year. He's probably at peak value now and there's risk his play reverses, while there's also a complete lack of good goaltending options available. Its a sellers market for goalies and Bob's at his highest value.

Comparing Bob vs. Knight. I think it's more likely Knight could play up to his $4.5M contract than Bob plays up to his $10M contract, or put another way, if Knight plays up to a $2-3M goalie and Bob plays like a $6-7M, we'd still be getting better value out of Knight. I know bringing Knight up too son could be detrimental to his development, but I think its a risk we have to take. Our D core is pretty solid right now anyways and with what he deals with in the AHL on a nightly basis, not sure that's even really helping him.

So playing armchair GM here, I'd trade Bob at 30% retained, which allows us to re-sign Fors, Reino, Monty and potentially OEL while keeping most of the roster intact. Knight and someone like Stolarz or Waeber in net, its not ideal, but teams have done fine with less.

This is what I'd get in capfriendly, with about $300K to spare, so the non-core guys (maybe Lomberg instead of the young guys, Stolarz instead of Waeber, etc.) can be swapped with whoever may be more appropriate.

Also based on the below, we'd have around $29M in cap available for 2025 assuming cap goes up to $92M as capfriendly has it. That easily allows us to keep Verhaeghe, Bennett, and Ekblad (maybe $20M between the three), then another $9M on four more bottom line skaters (Samo, Sourdif probably about $2-3M total, leaves $6-7M extra available for some really solid depth.

 

[ShootIt]

I think we've got a good thing going and should try to extend what we have for as long as possible, and when I look at the roster, Bob looks like the one that's clearly not meant to be here for the long haul. I've liked him more than most during his time here and he's been really great since the playoffs, but his contract is structured to be traded after this year. He's probably at peak value now and there's risk his play reverses, while there's also a complete lack of good goaltending options available. Its a sellers market for goalies and Bob's at his highest value.

Comparing Bob vs. Knight. I think it's more likely Knight could play up to his $4.5M contract than Bob plays up to his $10M contract, or put another way, if Knight plays up to a $2-3M goalie and Bob plays like a $6-7M, we'd still be getting better value out of Knight. I know bringing Knight up too son could be detrimental to his development, but I think its a risk we have to take. Our D core is pretty solid right now anyways and with what he deals with in the AHL on a nightly basis, not sure that's even really helping him.

So playing armchair GM here, I'd trade Bob at 30% retained, which allows us to re-sign Fors, Reino, Monty and potentially OEL while keeping most of the roster intact. Knight and someone like Stolarz or Waeber in net, its not ideal, but teams have done fine with less.

This is what I'd get in capfriendly, with about $300K to spare, so the non-core guys (maybe Lomberg instead of the young guys, Stolarz instead of Waeber, etc.) can be swapped with whoever may be more appropriate.

Also based on the below, we'd have around $29M in cap available assuming cap goes up to $92M as capfriendly has it. That easily allows us to keep Verhaeghe, Bennett, and Ekblad (maybe $20M between the three), then another $9M on four more bottom line skaters (Samo, Sourdif probably about $2-3M total, leaves $6-7M extra available for some really solid depth.

View attachment 795731

Knock on wood but if Bob goes beast mode again this upcoming playoffs he's worth the 10mil hit.
He can have off games here and there in the regular season but whatever he did in the Eastern run to get in that zone I hope he replicates that.

I do agree moving his deal makes the most sense, but hopefully Knight shows some type of growth/consistency.
Last thing we need is to go from Luongo to Alex Auld/Belfour to try to lessen the cap hit on the goalie duo.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I love Bob and how he's been able to find his game here again the last couple of seasons. But this has to be the offseason he's gone. We really need that 10 mil in cap space for these signings.

imo we must pay to keep Forsling, V, and Reinhart. Montour and Bennett would be nice to keep at the right price, but honestly if it comes down to it, I'd rather retain a cheaper OEL than a massive montour contract. Ekblad looks like he might be the odd man out just because we need that cap room but I wonder if he's serious about wanting to stay in FLA if he considers taking a paycut down to 3-4m to stay.

Disagree. Goaltending is a HUGE problem right now in the NHL. Teams are paying through the nose and often getting awful goaltending in return. It's become a crapshoot and everyone's throwing money at the problem. I'd much sooner move a mediocre and underperforming D *cough cough* than move Bobrovsky when he's easily been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last calendar year.

Obviously there is a lot of hockey to be played before the off-season, but if Bob continues to play this way in the regular season, and turns in another outstanding playoff performance, do you really move him to save ~5m on goaltending and then have a total question mark there? I sure don't.

 

[pantherbot]

Disagree. Goaltending is a HUGE problem right now in the NHL. Teams are paying through the nose and often getting awful goaltending in return. It's become a crapshoot and everyone's throwing money at the problem. I'd much sooner move a mediocre and underperforming D *cough cough* than move Bobrovsky when he's easily been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last calendar year.

Obviously there is a lot of hockey to be played before the off-season, but if Bob continues to play this way in the regular season, and turns in another outstanding playoff performance, do you really move him to save ~5m on goaltending and then have a total question mark there? I sure don't.

Bob's been good, but how much of his better performance is due to better defense? What if he turns back into a pumpkin next year? Wasn't so long ago majority on here were lamenting about being stuck with a $10M anchor. He's not getting any younger.

Also, just trading Ekblad isn't going to free up enough cap space unless we're just replacing him with someone making $1-2M, which no matter what you think of Ekblad, will be a downgrade.

I totally get what you're saying and don't want to trade Bob, but this is a sellers market, Bob's value is at its highest, goaltending like you said is a crapshoot in general. This would be our opportunity to get out of the contract and free up space for the rest of the roster.

 

[KW]

Bob's been good, but how much of his better performance is due to better defense? What if he turns back into a pumpkin next year? Wasn't so long ago majority on here were lamenting about being stuck with a $10M anchor. He's not getting any younger.

Also, just trading Ekblad isn't going to free up enough cap space unless we're just replacing him with someone making $1-2M, which no matter what you think of Ekblad, will be a downgrade.

I totally get what you're saying and don't want to trade Bob, but this is a sellers market, Bob's value is at its highest, goaltending like you said is a crapshoot in general. This would be our opportunity to get out of the contract and free up space for the rest of the roster.

My observation about Bob’s play is that his performance is highly correlated with D play.
— If D sucks, Bob tries to cover for them and ends up overcompensating and making himself look bad by doing too much. The G isn’t D but Bob tries to be G and D.
— If D is great, Bob is in the zone and his performance is even greater with the boost effect from the D. This isn’t necessarily true for all goalies.

Some goalies that act constantly the same won’t have low lows and high highs with the performance of the D, but fortunately or unfortunately, I think Bob does. In other words, if he plays like last season’s playoff Bob (to some extent continued currently), I also have no problem riding out his contract, as tempting as moving him might be. If we trade him and Knight isn’t the savior, we’ll be like Toronno or Oilers.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Totally fair argument, especially about age. I do think it's a little early to have this conversation, let's see what happens.

But right now, at this exact moment? I'd absolutely rather have say, Bob + Mahura than ??? + Ekblad.

That's just the reality of what I'm seeing on the ice.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Also, just trading Ekblad isn't going to free up enough cap space unless we're just replacing him with someone making $1-2M, which no matter what you think of Ekblad, will be a downgrade.

Zito isn't going to replace Ekblad with some depth dman who's making $1-2mil. For an example, if the Kings do not re-sign Matt Roy and he ends up on the FA market then that's a guy who's an upgrade from Ekblad and he'll be cheaper too.

I find it quite baffling that Ekblad is considered to be this irreplaceable top10 dman when there's plenty of other options if not in free agency then via trading.

Bob's been good, but how much of his better performance is due to better defense? What if he turns back into a pumpkin next year? Wasn't so long ago majority on here were lamenting about being stuck with a $10M anchor. He's not getting any younger.

Bob has bought a lot of goodwill with the previous two playoffs so it'll be very difficult for Zito to trade him. I didn't even want Bob in the first place and I still think he's overpaid but he has a lot of clout with the org at this point even with mediocre performances during the regular seasons.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I find it quite baffling that Ekblad is considered to be this irreplaceable top10 dman when there's plenty of other options if not in free agency then via trading.

Right now, Ekblad has some huge things going for him: He's got the longest tenure of anybody on the team not named Aleksander Barkov, was an all-world prospect, and seems like a great guy. Fans like him.

If you put that aside, and just look at his performance on the ice and his contract, the rosy glow turns puke green real fast. And yeah, a lot of that is due to injuries. But... at some point, being seriously injured like 9 straight years becomes a very real and very predictable trend.

Kind of sucks, I do like the guy, but... can't escape it.

 

[pantherbot]

Zito isn't going to replace Ekblad with some depth dman who's making $1-2mil. For an example, if the Kings do not re-sign Matt Roy and he ends up on the FA market then that's a guy who's an upgrade from Ekblad and he'll be cheaper too.

I find it quite baffling that Ekblad is considered to be this irreplaceable top10 dman when there's plenty of other options if not in free agency then via trading.



Bob has bought a lot of goodwill with the previous two playoffs so it'll be very difficult for Zito to trade him. I didn't even want Bob in the first place and I still think he's overpaid but he has a lot of clout with the org at this point even with mediocre performances during the regular seasons.

My point isn't that Zito wants to replace Ekblad with a $1-2M depth guy, its that he wouldn't have much of a choice given salary cap considerations. Nobody's saying Ekblad is an irreplaceable top-10 dman or that he isn't a bit overpaid, but he is an effective top pair RD even if a mediocre one and that's not easy to replace.

I'm just saying, if we want to keep Fors, Monty, and Reino, then just trading Ekblad isn't going to be enough unless you go with a $1-2M depth guy. If you want to trade Ekblad and Bob, that's fine too and I could totally understand if there's a better/cheaper option available.

But this is basically the roster you'd get if you keep Bob. I just put in Benning cause its easy, replace with anyone making up to $2M. Is that good enough? Maybe, but I'm not sure. Does Bob perform the same behind this defense?

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Right now, Ekblad has some huge things going for him: He's got the longest tenure of anybody on the team not named Aleksander Barkov, was an all-world prospect, and seems like a great guy. Fans like him.

If you put that aside, and just look at his performance on the ice and his contract, the rosy glow turns puke green real fast. And yeah, a lot of that is due to injuries. But... at some point, being seriously injured like 9 straight years becomes a very real and very predictable trend.

Kind of sucks, I do like the guy, but... can't escape it.

Same things were said about Huby and his 115pts didn't save him from getting traded. Since we've seen only marginal improvement his Ekblad's overall game from the entry level contract, I think that he's more focused on living the good life in Florida than becoming the player worthy of his contract. The financial stuff alone will push him out of Zito's plans for the future.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I actually do think that defense would be fine. Bill Zito has shown an uncanny ability to find quality defensemen in unlikely places (I mean, look at out D corps since he took over, it's an embarrassment of riches pulled from the scrap heap) and Paul Maurice is clearly doing a great job of integrating these guys into his defensive scheme.

 

[PSLguy]

Also, just trading Ekblad isn't going to free up enough cap space unless we're just replacing him with someone making $1-2M, which no matter what you think of Ekblad, will be a downgrade.

It seems like OEL did a pretty good job on the top line until Ekblad came back. He's only making 2.25 and the team could probably get him for 2 or 3 years for 3 million due to his Vancouver payout.

Not saying he's a long-term solution but for a few years could be a good stop gap.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

My point isn't that Zito wants to replace Ekblad with a $1-2M depth guy, its that he wouldn't have much of a choice given salary cap considerations. Nobody's saying Ekblad is an irreplaceable top-10 dman or that he isn't a bit overpaid, but he is an effective top pair RD even if a mediocre one and that's not easy to replace.

I'm just saying, if we want to keep Fors, Monty, and Reino, then just trading Ekblad isn't going to be enough unless you go with a $1-2M depth guy. If you want to trade Ekblad and Bob, that's fine too and I could totally understand if there's a better/cheaper option available.

But this is basically the roster you'd get if you keep Bob. I just put in Benning cause its easy, replace with anyone making up to $2M. Is that good enough? Maybe, but I'm not sure. Does Bob perform the same behind this defense?

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I don't see Reino and Forsling getting those types of deals if they intend to stay with the team. Barkov and Tkachuk took a paycut in order to make this team a contender and the others have to follow suit. Bob and Ekblad weren't signed by Zito and when the right opportunity and circumstances arrive then both will be gone.

I don't think we'll be seeing neither Samo or Sourdif in the season opener since Zito is always acquiring cheap depth players like Lorentz, Cousins, Gadjo, etc. who are in their prime.

 

[pantherbot]

I actually do think that defense would be fine. Bill Zito has shown an uncanny ability to find quality defensemen in unlikely places (I mean, look at out D corps since he took over, it's an embarrassment of riches pulled from the scrap heap) and Paul Maurice is clearly doing a great job of integrating these guys into his defensive scheme.

Yes its a good point and if they can do that, would be awesome. Our D was fine to start the year without Ekblad and Montour, but was that sustainable through a full season and playoffs? Some players can play above their level for short periods, but aren't consistent about it. Maurice could've told our D to play balls-to-the-wall to start the year before Ek/Monty came back, but that wouldn't be sustainable. I obviously don't know the answer, but if they've got some cheap dude available to replace Ekblad consistently and into playoffs, I'm onboard.

I'm also still worried about Bob's last two years. If he sucks and we can't get him moved, it could mess us up for 2025 too. This is our chance to prevent that from happening.

It seems like OEL did a pretty good job on the top line until Ekblad came back. He's only making 2.25 and the team could probably get him for 2 or 3 years for 3 million due to his Vancouver payout.

Not saying he's a long-term solution but for a few years could be a good stop gap.

Yeah I'm assuming OEL stays if we trade Ekblad, but that would still be a net reduction from our current D.

I don't see Reino and Forsling getting those types of deals if they intend to stay with the team. Barkov and Tkachuk took a paycut in order to make this team a contender and the others have to follow suit. Bob and Ekblad weren't signed by Zito and when the right opportunity and circumstances arrive then both will be gone.

I don't think we'll be seeing neither Samo or Sourdif in the season opener since Zito is always acquiring cheap depth players like Lorentz, Cousins, Gadjo, etc. who are in their prime.

Maybe...if we can get those guys signed on lower deals, that'd be awesome. But realistically, how much did Barkov/Tkachuck give up? I'd say $1M AAV? I think Reino could see $9M and Forsling >$7M on the open market. Also cap going up.

Agree Samo/Sourdif maybe not in the opener, just put them there as placeholders basically. Replace with whatever.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

But realistically, how much did Barkov/Tkachuck give up? I'd say $1M AAV?

My guess is $2-3mil. If Tavares signed for $11milx7 five years ago then Barkov as a better player would command way more than $11mil two years ago when he signed his contract extension.

 

[BeezKnees]

Disagree. Goaltending is a HUGE problem right now in the NHL. Teams are paying through the nose and often getting awful goaltending in return. It's become a crapshoot and everyone's throwing money at the problem. I'd much sooner move a mediocre and underperforming D *cough cough* than move Bobrovsky when he's easily been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last calendar year.

Obviously there is a lot of hockey to be played before the off-season, but if Bob continues to play this way in the regular season, and turns in another outstanding playoff performance, do you really move him to save ~5m on goaltending and then have a total question mark there? I sure don't.

That's fair. I guess a lot depends on how Knight is doing by the end of the year and what our other options are

 

[Gentle Man]

I know Reinhart is the sexy name. But this D core honestly would look horrible without Forsling

 

[Jakeybonz]

Unless there's another situation like with Calgary/Tkachuk and a GM dumb enough like Tre, I don't see how you replace Ekblad for a lot cheaper and better. Cap is going up, what was $5M will be $6M, etc.

Literally anything is better than ekblad. And anything is cheap.

 

[TotalHomer]

If the main trade board is to be believed we'll be able to clear Ekblad's cap hit and get a haul for him on top. I think it's wishful thinking but that would be awesome.

 

[barkovcanfinnish]

Verhaeghe and Forsling are guys you gotta keep for this window to stay open.

I think you then choose between Ekblad and Montour. One stays, the other goes.

I think then you try to keep Bennett and extend Lundell for a year or two. If Lundell doesn’t improve you move him or Luostarainen

Unfortunately that leaves Reinhart as the odd man out. I’d love to keep him but the cap is going to be too hard to fit what he’s going to want to be paid. He’s having an unreal season but I really don’t see how we are able to keep him and not lose Forsling and then Verhaeghe

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

If the main trade board is to be believed we'll be able to clear Ekblad's cap hit and get a haul for him on top. I think it's wishful thinking but that would be awesome.

Yeah, and my new superyacht is being delivered in the morning.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

In an ideal world where fan favorite players can be kept on team friendly contracts, Ekblad comes back on the cheap. In the real world where you're actually trying to win the Stanley Cup and build a winning franchise, you sell as high as possible as soon as possible.

The Huberdeau trade tells me that the latter is probably what's in store for us. I think that if Knight's development hadn't been completely derailed, Bob would almost certainly be gone, too. Given the current state of NHL goaltending...