Speculation: 2024 and 2025 big UFAs

[ScottyMascotty]

It seems like we didn't hear anything about contract talks with our 2024 UFA class. Cap is expected to go up to 87,5M, but all of them are due to salary raises. It doesn't help that there are more pending UFA in 2025. In order for Cup window to stay open, Zito needs to make some interesting (and maybe tough) decisions.

So let's use this thread to discuss about who should stay, what contract they probably get, who needs to go, how they may be replaced.


Here is my report on all these players:

Gustav Forsling, LD, 27 y.o., 2,7M$ until 2024, will be 28 in 24/25 season.
+ Excellent skater, uses it to affect situation everywhere on the ice, reads the play well.
+ Reliable in one-on-one situations with active stick.
+ Currently best +/- on the team with Barkov. Advanced stats confirm good all-around play. Plays against top competition.
+ Brave player, blocks a lot of shots, has the biggest PK workload (with Ekblad).
+ Can provide additional offense, good shot and decent puck skills. Had two 0,5 PPG seasons without much PP time.
+ Seems to be underrated/overlooked, there is a question how much teams on the market would offer him.

- Not the biggest defenseman, can occasionally be outmuscled by power forwards.
- Direct offensive contribution seems lower this season, though it can be caused by more defensive commitment. Doesn't get a lot of PP time.

Brandon Montour, RD, 29 y.o., 3,5M$ until 2024, will be 30 in 24/25 season.
+ Great skater.
+ Physical freak, can play huge minutes without getting tired.
+ Variety of offensive skills: skating, shot, passing, joins the rush and sometimes can be described as a 4th forward.
+ Exploded offensively in 22-23 season with bigger role and PP1 spot.

- Ocassionally has some defensive troubles, thus paired with clear stay-at-home defenseman (Mikkola currently).
- Had just one incredible season, doesn't have a long history of being a big contributor with important role.
- Doesn't have a history of being great playdriver.
- Not a lot of offensive contribution up to date (6 points in 21 games), there is a worries that he can be overpaid for just one career year.
- Rarely plays in PK.

Aaron Ekblad, RD, 27 y.o., 7,5M$ until 2025, will be 29 in 25/26 season.
+ Plays his 10th season with the team already, has long ties with Barkov.
+ Big defenseman, reads the play on the defensive side.
+ Can provide additional offense (0,5-0,6 PPG is expected), has 8 seasons with 10+ goals.
+ Was 6th in Norris voting in his peak 21-22 season.
+ Good advanced stats in this season.
+ Plays against top competition, has the biggest PK workload (with Forsling).
- Skating. Struggles against speedy players when they have open ice.
- Injury history. Durability and aging is a big question.
- May be overrated because of his reputation and get a huge offers from the market.
- Not a lot of offensive contributions so far this season.

Sam Reinhart, RW, 28 y.o., 6,5M$ until 2024.
+ Exploded offensively this year, finally got great chemistry with Barkov.
+ One of the best PP producers in the entire league, currently leads in PP goals.
+ Good defensively, plays a lot in PK. Reliable against top competition.
+ Diverse offensive skillset, creative playmaker, carried a line with Lundell and Marchment in 21/22 season, and with Lundell and Luostarinen in 22/23 season. Can be a shooter, though a bit streaky with finishing. Plays a methodical game, with big attention to details.
+ One of the best in the league in tip-in shots, which adds another dimension to his offense.
+ There is a possibility that his game ages well because of playstyle which relies on hockey IQ and not physical tools.
+ Rarely gets penalized.

- On pace for his career year while being a pending UFA. There is a worries that he can be overpaid just for one year.
- Not overtly physical player.
- Not a speedy player.

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, 28 y.o., 4,17M$ until 2025, will be 30 in 25/26 season.
+ Develops into an elite sniper. Best wrist shot on the team. On pace for 40 goals again. Knows how to find open ice.
+ Good skating, uses his speed to carry the puck in transiton and create scoring chances.
+ Underrated forechecker and underrated passer.
+ Excellent 5v5 point production, which remains stable over his seasons in Florida. Even this season when he is playing with struggling Tkachuk and not Barkov. Excellent 5v5 offense driving.
+ Clutch player, has a reputation of doing wonders in playoffs.
+ Didn't get a lot of PP time before, but there is a possibility of improving his point totals with being a fixture on PP1.

- High-event type of player, makes a lot of risky decisions. Not a clear liability defensively, just his play off the puck is better in the offensive zone.
- Not a very physical player, doesn't hit much, doesn't block a lot of shots.
- Doesn't play in PK.
- Ocassionally gets a penalty for overdoing a bit in checking.

Sam Bennett, C, 27 y.o., 4,425M$ until 2025, will be 29 in 25/26 season.
+ Rare mix of skill and physicality. Prototypical power forward. Helps driving the play.
+ Known for his forechecking skills. Hits a lot. Not afraid of fighting. Menace on the ice.
+ Good skating, uses his speed to carry the puck in transiton and create scoring chances.
+ Brave player, goes to the dirty areas, searches for rebounds.
+ Clutch player, had an underrated 2023 playoffs.

- Not elite hockey IQ. Sometimes makes not the best decisions on the ice.
- Sometimes goes over the edge with toughness, gets stupid penalties or even suspensions on the worst times.
- Injuries history. Maybe related with his very aggresive playstyle. Questions how good he will age with wear and tear on his body.
- Not the biggest offensive contributor, not a fixture on PP1, even strength production is good but not great.
- As a center, not the best in faceoffs.

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[I am not exposed]

Great write up on each player. I would prioritise signing Forsling and Verhaeghe.

 

[I am not exposed]

Poor Ekblad the only player not to have any votes. I can't think of a fat joke at this moment though.

 

[Gentle Man]

Poor Ekblad the only player not to have any votes. I can't think of a fat joke at this moment though.

The 0 votes matches his physique.

 

[pantherbot]

I know Stenlund's not a "core" piece, but he's been a great addition IMO and should also be retained if possible. He's been so good helping with PK and just solidifying that 4th line. If we could keep him for like $1.25M AAV, that would be awesome.

 

[KW]

I would also add OEL as a keep if possible.

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

So the supposed number for Nylander that has been floating around makes me more nervous about Reinhart’s asking price. I didn’t even think about Verhaeghe down the line.

I think we can let Montour walk. Loved what he’s done here, but he’s going to be in high demand. Someone will overpay.

Forsling is a must. Not even a question.

In an effort to be serious regarding Ekblad, it’s really hard to gauge where the franchise stands with him. He needs to finish all this season and play at least 75 games next year before we even entertain a new deal. When was his last full season, pre-pandemic? I also think Maurice is transitioning him into a more defensive dman given his bleh speed and skating. He’s strong on the puck and the puck carrier. Regardless, his days of being a $7+ mill player is over unless some team gets really desperate on his draft position and pedigree.

 

[PSLguy]

OEL was signed by Vancouver for 8.25 million and the Panthers are paying him 2.25 million. Please correct me if I'm wrong, Canucks are paying him the 6 million difference?
If so, he is guaranteed his $$$ from Vancouver and it doesn't matter what any team pays him, he'll get 8.25.

So the supposed number for Nylander that has been floating around makes me more nervous about Reinhart’s asking price. I didn’t even think about Verhaeghe down the line.

Nylander pays Toronto/Canada taxes, which are significantly higher than the Florida taxes.

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

OEL was signed by Vancouver for 8.25 million and the Panthers are paying him 2.25 million. Please correct me if I'm wrong, Canucks are paying him the 6 million difference?
If so, he is guaranteed his $$$ from Vancouver and it doesn't matter what any team pays him, he'll get 8.25.


Nylander pays Toronto/Canada taxes, which are significantly higher than the Florida taxes.

OEL was bought out, his last contract doesn’t exist anymore

 

[Gentle Man]

OEL was bought out, his last contract doesn’t exist anymore

No that's not true

He is getting 2.1 from Vancouver for the next 6 years lol

He can take 2 or 3 here or elsewhere and take home 5+

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

No that's not true

He is getting 2.1 from Vancouver for the next 6 years lol

He can take 2 or 3 here or elsewhere and take home 5+

Right but what I mean is that what we’re paying OEL has nothing to do with his last deal with VAN.

 

[Gentle Man]

Right but what I mean is that what we’re paying OEL has nothing to do with his last deal with VAN.

not directly no, but I am sure it helped get that money lower a bit. He even agreed to take a 750K base salary here lol

 

[PSLguy]

So, what number do you think OEL will get on his next deal? 3 or 4 per?

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Hopefully he takes 3 to stay here

 

[Gentle Man]

Turning 33. Give him the same contract lmao

 

[zeroG]

So the supposed number for Nylander that has been floating around makes me more nervous about Reinhart’s asking price. I didn’t even think about Verhaeghe down the line.

I think we can let Montour walk. Loved what he’s done here, but he’s going to be in high demand. Someone will overpay.

Forsling is a must. Not even a question.

In an effort to be serious regarding Ekblad, it’s really hard to gauge where the franchise stands with him. He needs to finish all this season and play at least 75 games next year before we even entertain a new deal. When was his last full season, pre-pandemic? I also think Maurice is transitioning him into a more defensive dman given his bleh speed and skating. He’s strong on the puck and the puck carrier. Regardless, his days of being a $7+ mill player is over unless some team gets really desperate on his draft position and pedigree.

who the hell knows but I happened to also agree about letting monty walk. might disagree after this postseason, though.

and being serious, I think ek will cost less and he's still so young. needs to stay healthy and have a reasonably productive year but if he does, I am ok keeping him over monty. yes, I'm the one who picked him!

I would choose to keep benny over one of Verhaeghe or reino. I don't think it's easy to replace what he brings.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

He needs to finish all this season and play at least 75 games next year before we even entertain a new deal.

Doesn't matter. He's getting traded to another team even if it means selling at a bargain price.

Lemme ask this... how would one make a determination that Ekbad is some Norris-caliber top10 dman in the league just based on on-ice performance? Huby racked up 115pts and that didn't save his rear because the money didn't line up with the overall impact he provided.

who the hell knows but I happened to also agree about letting monty walk. might disagree after this postseason, though.

Monty was their best dman in the playoffs and thus he should stay with the team.

 

[zeroG]

Monty was their best dman in the playoffs and thus he should stay with the team.

well, I did put the disclaimer in there.

if his offense doesn't pick up the rest of the season and postseason, last year starts to look more like an outlier.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I could be way off base here, but I think Ekblad is extremely gone if they can find absolutely any of the 16 teams available to take him.

 

[pantherbot]

Trading Ekblad isn't that simple. Yeah he's not really "worth" $7.5M now, but if you trade him you still have to replace him. He still plays top pair minutes and is fine even if ideally more of a good mid-pair. He also plays RD. I think he likes it here and he's already over-earned from his first contract, this isn't one of those situations where the player has been grossly underpaid and wants his payday. I could see him taking a rollover contract which is actually fine IMO with the cap going up. What used to be a $5-6M fair contract will be $7-8M soon. So even if you trade him, what's the real savings? Not like we have some young dman ready to step up.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Trading Ekblad isn't that simple. Yeah he's not really "worth" $7.5M now, but if you trade him you still have to replace him. He still plays top pair minutes and is fine even if ideally more of a good mid-pair. He also plays RD. I think he likes it here and he's already over-earned from his first contract, this isn't one of those situations where the player has been grossly underpaid and wants his payday. I could see him taking a rollover contract which is actually fine IMO with the cap going up. What used to be a $5-6M fair contract will be $7-8M soon. So even if you trade him, what's the real savings? Not like we have some young dman ready to step up.

Ekblad likes it in Florida because he can rest on his laurels with this team and moving on from him works for both parties involved: Zito can get a better player at a lower price point via trade or free agency and Ekblad can join with his bff's in Calgary.

 

[pantherbot]

Ekblad likes it in Florida because he can rest on his laurels with this team and moving on from him works for both parties involved: Zito can get a better player at a lower price point via trade or free agency and Ekblad can join with his bff's in Calgary.

Unless there's another situation like with Calgary/Tkachuk and a GM dumb enough like Tre, I don't see how you replace Ekblad for a lot cheaper and better. Cap is going up, what was $5M will be $6M, etc.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Unless there's another situation like with Calgary/Tkachuk and a GM dumb enough like Tre, I don't see how you replace Ekblad for a lot cheaper and better. Cap is going up, what was $5M will be $6M, etc.

Well, Mikkola is a lot cheaper and better than Ekblad.

There's always some bozo GM who, in this case, thinks that Ekblad is a 6'4" stud man who is on the brink of becoming another Erik Karlsson and therefore is willing to cough up +$10mil per for his services.

 

[austropanther]

It seems like we didn't hear anything about contract talks with our 2024 UFA class. Cap is expected to go up to 87,5M, but all of them are due to salary raises. It doesn't help that there are more pending UFA in 2025. In order for Cup window to stay open, Zito needs to make some interesting (and maybe tough) decisions.

So let's use this thread to discuss about who should stay, what contract they probably get, who needs to go, how they may be replaced.


Here is my report on all these players:

Gustav Forsling, LD, 27 y.o., 2,7M$ until 2024, will be 28 in 24/25 season.
+ Excellent skater, uses it to affect situation everywhere on the ice, reads the play well.
+ Reliable in one-on-one situations with active stick.
+ Currently best +/- on the team with Barkov. Advanced stats confirm good all-around play. Plays against top competition.
+ Brave player, blocks a lot of shots, has the biggest PK workload (with Ekblad).
+ Can provide additional offense, good shot and decent puck skills. Had two 0,5 PPG seasons without much PP time.
+ Seems to be underrated/overlooked, there is a question how much teams on the market would offer him.

- Not the biggest defenseman, can occasionally be outmuscled by power forwards.
- Direct offensive contribution seems lower this season, though it can be caused by more defensive commitment. Doesn't get a lot of PP time.

Brandon Montour, RD, 29 y.o., 3,5M$ until 2024, will be 30 in 24/25 season.
+ Great skater.
+ Physical freak, can play huge minutes without getting tired.
+ Variety of offensive skills: skating, shot, passing, joins the rush and sometimes can be described as a 4th forward.
+ Exploded offensively in 22-23 season with bigger role and PP1 spot.

- Ocassionally has some defensive troubles, thus paired with clear stay-at-home defenseman (Mikkola currently).
- Had just one incredible season, doesn't have a long history of being a big contributor with important role.
- Doesn't have a history of being great playdriver.
- Not a lot of offensive contribution up to date (6 points in 21 games), there is a worries that he can be overpaid for just one career year.
- Rarely plays in PK.

Aaron Ekblad, RD, 27 y.o., 7,5M$ until 2025, will be 29 in 25/26 season.
+ Plays his 10th season with the team already, has long ties with Barkov.
+ Big defenseman, reads the play on the defensive side.
+ Can provide additional offense (0,5-0,6 PPG is expected), has 8 seasons with 10+ goals.
+ Was 6th in Norris voting in his peak 21-22 season.
+ Good advanced stats in this season.
+ Plays against top competition, has the biggest PK workload (with Forsling).
- Skating. Struggles against speedy players when they have open ice.
- Injury history. Durability and aging is a big question.
- May be overrated because of his reputation and get a huge offers from the market.
- Not a lot of offensive contributions so far this season.

Sam Reinhart, RW, 28 y.o., 6,5M$ until 2024.
+ Exploded offensively this year, finally got great chemistry with Barkov.
+ One of the best PP producers in the entire league, currently leads in PP goals.
+ Good defensively, plays a lot in PK. Reliable against top competition.
+ Diverse offensive skillset, creative playmaker, carried a line with Lundell and Marchment in 21/22 season, and with Lundell and Luostarinen in 22/23 season. Can be a shooter, though a bit streaky with finishing. Plays a methodical game, with big attention to details.
+ One of the best in the league in tip-in shots, which adds another dimension to his offense.
+ There is a possibility that his game ages well because of playstyle which relies on hockey IQ and not physical tools.
+ Rarely gets penalized.

- On pace for his career year while being a pending UFA. There is a worries that he can be overpaid just for one year.
- Not overtly physical player.
- Not a speedy player.

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, 28 y.o., 4,17M$ until 2025, will be 30 in 25/26 season.
+ Develops into an elite sniper. Best wrist shot on the team. On pace for 40 goals again. Knows how to find open ice.
+ Good skating, uses his speed to carry the puck in transiton and create scoring chances.
+ Underrated forechecker and underrated passer.
+ Excellent 5v5 point production, which remains stable over his seasons in Florida. Even this season when he is playing with struggling Tkachuk and not Barkov. Excellent 5v5 offense driving.
+ Clutch player, has a reputation of doing wonders in playoffs.
+ Didn't get a lot of PP time before, but there is a possibility of improving his point totals with being a fixture on PP1.

- High-event type of player, makes a lot of risky decisions. Not a clear liability defensively, just his play off the puck is better in the offensive zone.
- Not a very physical player, doesn't hit much, doesn't block a lot of shots.
- Doesn't play in PK.
- Ocassionally gets a penalty for overdoing a bit in checking.

Sam Bennett, C, 27 y.o., 4,425M$ until 2025, will be 29 in 25/26 season.
+ Rare mix of skill and physicality. Prototypical power forward. Helps driving the play.
+ Known for his forechecking skills. Hits a lot. Not afraid of fighting. Menace on the ice.
+ Good skating, uses his speed to carry the puck in transiton and create scoring chances.
+ Brave player, goes to the dirty areas, searches for rebounds.
+ Clutch player, had an underrated 2023 playoffs.

- Not elite hockey IQ. Sometimes makes not the best decisions on the ice.
- Sometimes goes over the edge with toughness, gets stupid penalties or even suspensions on the worst times.
- Injuries history. Maybe related with his very aggresive playstyle. Questions how good he will age with wear and tear on his body.
- Not the biggest offensive contributor, not a fixture on PP1, even strength production is good but not great.
- As a center, not the best in faceoffs.

First of all I have to completely agree with "I am not exposed", perfect description of all players, hats off to you.

This is a tough nut to crack. IMO it comes down to the direction the team is currently taking which is more towards being a strong defensive team rather than rely on offense. Here comes the saying: offense wins games, defense championships.

Therefore I would go with the following focusing on D to have our top-4 pretty much set:
1. Forsling (steadiest player on the team behind Barky)
2. Montour (best motor)
3. Reinhart (most versatile)
4. Verhaege (most clutch)
5. Bennett (most animal)
6. Ekblad (most you know what)

The toughest thing is that they all have proven over the last two years that they are great in the POs.

I am sure we will keep guys like OEL and Tommy Stenlund at reasonable prices.

I leave you guys with Maurice's speech after the SC final where he pointed out something about this team that cannot be rewarded in money and hopefully will give Zito some leverage:

 

[ShootIt]

For the 2024 Notable Free agents:

1. Forsling. Capable of #1 minutes. Smooth skater. Smart player. Doesn't rely on a phyiscal game so unless injuries take him out he should play well into a long term extension

2. Reinhart. He's talented no doubt. Legit top 6 player, who decided to click with Barkov on his contract year. I'm a bit concerned on his cap hit as he's shooting at an unsustainable rate 1/3rd of the way into the season. Smart player, great hand eye coordination and can score some gritty goals.

3. Montour. Unfortunately for him the injury occurred late and who knows if he's anywhere near 100%. Great offensive player in 22-23. Defensively is a liability at times but last year it was worth the risk. Would be nice to be a fly on the wall to hear how the F.O. values him and his agent. I don't think he'll be that 0.8-0.9 PPG defensemen to finish this year so it becomes a question of was last year an one year wonder or is that what we can expect from Monty with top 3 minutes? Ate minutes with ease last season. Great conditioning.


2025:

1. Verhaeghe. Clutch scorer. Best shot on the team since Barkov never shoots his to qualify. Not much else to say.
2. Bennett. Plays on that fine line at times, which is needed as long as he can keep the penalties in check/emotion. Biggest concern for me is him staying healthy for most of the season. The W-L record last year was heavily favored with him being on the ice than not. Lundell hasn't taken that next step to possibly claim top 6 minutes yet so as of now it'll be hard to lose Bennett and IIRC there's no prospect in the system that projects as a top 6-9 center at least for 2025.
3. Ekblad. My biggest concern with Ekblad is injuries and how it could affect his mobility as he goes into his 30's. Feel like if he wants to stay and take a discount I would be fine with him at 5-6mil, but anything more with term it'll be best to let him find another team.

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