“As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31, and then it stays at a similar level for the entire second round. I’m not sure what’s the reason for that drop-off but it’s clear as day.”
Prospect Info: 2024 27th Overall - Marek Vanacker
- Thread starter No Fun Shogun
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud has scheduled an upgrade to XenForo version 2.2.16. This will take place on or shortly after the following date and time: Jul 05, 2024 at 05:00 PM (PT) There shouldn't be any downtime, as it's just a maintenance release. More info here
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
That was the quote from the article. Yeah. I guess I did quote that but I really was more arguing that 27 and 34 are similar in value and that you should wait for the draft to come to you, and moving 50 for 7 spots is silly.
ChiHawks10
Registered User
If there's a specific player you want, and you have an idea that someone may take him off the board... then moving 50 to get back into the 1st round(even if just 7 spots) is the correct decision. As myself and others have said, 50 is not a premium pick. Odds are likely that #50 doesn't even make the NHL and stick. Hell, #50 isn't even a good 2nd round pick. It's like half-way through the 2nd round. Having pick #27 likely gives you somewhere around double(or more) the chance that he'll make the NHL. I think #50 is worth the cost of guaranteeing that you get your guy, personally.
Last edited:
It’s sillier to miss out on the guy you want in order to hang onto a pick that will most likely not be an nhl regular, and has almost no chance of being an impact player.
dj Mahoney
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2021
- 1,404
- 650
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
hockeydoug
Registered User
- May 26, 2012
- 3,953
- 424
Agreed. I don't like the 200 or less games played models, so many gms give their high picks dozens or more games and plenty of extra chances based on draft position alone. They also don't prioritize acquisitions for those slots as highly as other organizational holes, they get favored opportunities and have less competition.
MSL wrote an interesting piece on how hard it was for even a player with so many elite attributes to get passed high draft picks in the player's tribune (I think that was the pub) several years ago.
hockeydoug
Registered User
- May 26, 2012
- 3,953
- 424
Yes,
And how do you NOT screw up evaluating and slotting a large pool of sub-elite prospects?
I'm on board with just 3 picks in the top 50, (could have gotten there better but whatever). Never been in a NHL draft scout or development meeting but if there are multiple redundant options, I think there is way too much room to horse trade on decisions instead of focusing on getting each one right.
hockeydoug
Registered User
- May 26, 2012
- 3,953
- 424
And keeping them. That's why I'm happier with only 3 picks in the top 50 this instead of the nuttiness of the previous two years.
Half of the very small number of impact players drafted 20-75oa (400gp, 4-6 years in top4/6 role for example) find that role with another team because the drafting team often can't develop or slot players correctly.
Sometimes it's timelines (Danault types) but often it's a problem with too many kids to slot like Hagel. Those are more extreme examples of success, but I think they at least clarify the point a bit.
belfour30
Connor Bedard Fangirl
- Dec 14, 2019
- 1,610
- 1,457
