2024 27th Overall Marek Vanacker
- Thread starter No Fun Shogun
- Start date
Darkstar
Registered User
Maybe not but Miettinen was available at 34 and Artamonov went 50. I like Vanacker but I think I'd rather have the other two instead.
And do you think you watched these players more than the Blackhawks scouting department?
Castle8130
Registered User
- May 9, 2017
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Its a pretty valuable pick. You can hit gold there. Once you get to around 60 theres a significant drop-off in talent. Picks 25-60 are all minimally different in value. It all depends on how good your scouts are
Kurtosis
GHG
That’s a different argument. I respect your opinion on that but the 50th pick is not a premium pick and I stand by my statement.
Please name 2 NHL players drafted at 50 that turned into 1st line players. There's a massive drop off after 25, and the statistics back this up.
Castle8130
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- May 9, 2017
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Milan lucic, Jordan Greenway, Carter Hart (48), linus ullmark (51), Shea Weber (49), Corey Crawford (52), Colton sissons
All impact players maybe not Elite players, but very good roster players. All depends on if you hired good scouts
Darkstar
Registered User
Oh, so we are expanding this to picks 48 through 52 now. Ok. So in 21 years, and 100+ picks, 7 of those guys turned into impact players. Four skaters, and three goalies. Cool.
I don't really count goalies, since they are voodoo and come from everywhere, but OK.
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deytookerjaabs
Johnny Paycheck's Tank Advisor
I also think there's sometimes a first round bias in how long you get to stay in the league (to "figure it out) from an early age even when you're under performing. Later drafted guys usually need to at least be responsible on the puck and defensively often from the get go if they get a shot. 1st rounders can be seasoned vets by age 25 and get every opportunity to late bloom, often getting traded around in the process.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
And 100 games doesn’t come close to meaning an impact player. Just look at the scrubs on our roster who have played 100 games, Reese Johnson, Entwistle, Raddysh, etc. I’m all for trading any combination of non-first round picks for more first round picks. First round is where nhl players are found.
NHL Draft Pick Probabilities
Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided todobberprospects.com
Not even remotely a premium pick, and this is an extremely weak draft. The value people put on picks after the first round is amazing, really.
View attachment 889697
It's a pretty mediocre draft class, and they got the guy they wanted. In the big picture, it's likely to be completely meaningless. I'll eat my hat if that 50th pick turns into anything of note.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
If Levshunov is worth 2, it’s a good draft, if he isn’t, it’s bad. That’s really the only thing that matters anyway.
I agree in one particular draft, but at the same time I also think if you’re constantly giving up lottery tickets just to chase the guys you want it’s a lower probability game. I’m more of a fan of letting the draft come to you.
I'm not sure I agree with this. The probability of finding a regular NHLer drops off massively after 25. The overwhelming majority of NHL players are found in the top 25 of the draft.
I’d honestly trade every draft’s 2nd-7th for an extra 1st. E.g., if I’m picking 10th oa, take the rest of my picks for the number 20.
Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
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In theory, I agree.
In practice you wind up with guys ranked in the 20s that become available in the 2nd round, and that makes trading up less necessary.
I'd be willing to bet your odds of drafting an NHLer with a single draft pick in the top 25, is higher than all the following rounds combined.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Carolina is ran by a genius and they trade back more than anyone. I doubt it’s because the math doesn’t say it’s right.
“As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31, and then it stays at a similar level for the entire second round. I’m not sure what’s the reason for that drop-off but it’s clear as day.”
Hattrick Kane
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- Oct 8, 2018
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Oh god you’ve drank the Jaeger koolaid. Well that’s okay, you can root for Carolina to clumsily fail in the playoffs over and over with their juggernaut team built by an analytical genius
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
I’m not rooting for anyone and this isn’t hockey analytics. It’s literally math and probability.
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
While true, when you do find talent there or later it can be what creates a Cup winning team. Keith, Bolland, Brower, Crawford, Bickell, Hjalmarsson, Buff, etc. (just from top of my head and not meant to be all inclusive).
Crow
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Darkstar
Registered User
