2024-25 USNTDP U18 Discussion

Hockeyville USA

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By far the worst USNTDP program I've seen since getting into prospects 10 years ago.

2014 team had Eichel, Tuch
2015 team had Matthews, Tkachuk, Mcavoy
2016 team had Keller, Fox
2017 team had Q. Hughes, Tkachuk
2018 team has Farabee, Miller, Samuelsson
2019 team Hughes, Caulfield, Boldy, York
2020 team had Beniers and Sanderson
2021 team atleast had Luke Hughes
2022 had Cooley, Gauthier
2023 Smith, Leonard, GP
2024 Hagens, Eiserman

At the very least NHL top 6 NHL forwards/ top 4 nhl dman.

Besides Murtagh (who projects as a second liner to me) this team has not much going for it
Beniers is good but not great. Sanderson is legitimately great. Faber was also on that team and is much better than Beniers IMHO. The rest of that 2002 birthyear team was dogshit by good NHLer standards.
 
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Won three in a row now against three USHL teams. McKinney had three points last night.
Two of those wins were against a really bad Cedar Rapids team. That first game was so bad that my wife and I left after two periods -- it was ugly, boring hockey. Both teams were stumbling around. The 0-0 score at that point was well deserved. The U18's looked better the 2nd night, though.
 
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jtechkid

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I think they'll have a few. They have a lot of big and athletic and physical and good skating players. A few of these players are likely to end up better NHL players than juniors. For instance, Amico is out for the season, but projects as top 4.

Trethewey could definitely be that. Phillips is very raw, but could end up that. I think it's a possibility. Likely one or two of the forwards hits on their potential (there are at least 4 or 5 with potential top 6 if all goes right), and then you have Potter who is part of this team. It would be unfair to forget him just because he decided to ditch them for NCAA this year. He might have the best chance of the forwards to be top 6.

They have two goaltenders that could be good with Quinlan and Boettiger.

So I think they'll end up with 2-3 at least that are respectable in that same sense you mention, maybe 1 or 2 hit big, and they'll probably at least equal the level of 2020 and 2021.
Just because your 6’4 and look athletic doesnt mean your a good player - obviously NTDP scouts forgot that as both amico and phillips were below average players going into selection . The biggest 2 things scouts completely over value is size and completely under value is hockey IQ . Phillips I dont see it all and Amico is such small sample size reaching at straws . If both were 6 feet would have little interest . Trethaway is just a “ good dmem “ that doesnt do anything great so not sure where you value . Bracco runs the PP and prob wont get drafted sums him up . Barnett is solid and i would take him late rounds . Schock is mobile - good skater but doesnt really jump out as doing anything high end .

I have McKinney ranked high right now. He’s the best all around player on that team I’ve been saying it from the beginning. I think he has the tools to be a good pro. I look at Murtagh as a guy that may top out as a productive college player. I think there is more risk with him.
i think mckinney is the safest pick and will have long nhl career . i like murtaugh too but right below him because way he plays worry about injury’s . moore might have highest upside but he has nhl bust all over him . These are all great players -top1% in usa so dont want be that harsh but in perpective of playing in the nhl .
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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Just because your 6’4 and look athletic doesnt mean your a good player - obviously NTDP scouts forgot that as both amico and phillips were below average players going into selection . The biggest 2 things scouts completely over value is size and completely under value is hockey IQ . Phillips I dont see it all and Amico is such small sample size reaching at straws . If both were 6 feet would have little interest . Trethaway is just a “ good dmem “ that doesnt do anything great so not sure where you value . Bracco runs the PP and prob wont get drafted sums him up . Barnett is solid and i would take him late rounds . Schock is mobile - good skater but doesnt really jump out as doing anything high end .
Faber wasn’t a star at the NTDP. Look now. Neither was K’Andre Miller. Sanderson barely put up any points at the NTDP. Brzustewicz was the fourth pair RHD.

Junior hockey and what will work in the NHL aren’t always the same thing. I think a team that has a lot of secondary prospects who are big and physical and athletic and good skating players is probably the type of attributes that you will see age better over time than secondary small offensive forward prospects without the top caliber NHL traits.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Despite all the doom and gloom, 2025 seems like a strong draft for American players.

Hagens, Hensler, Vansaghi, Fiddler, Kevan, Rombach, DRM, Trethewey, Amico, Murtagh, McKinney, Mooney, Moore, Fondrk, Potter

Maybe I’m forgetting someone obvious, but 15 players you’d think are very likely for top 2 rounds. Likely we get roughly half in the first round, and very possibly the 1OA.

Seems like that’d be a pretty good draft, all things considered.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Despite all the doom and gloom, 2025 seems like a strong draft for American players.

Hagens, Hensler, Vansaghi, Fiddler, Kevan, Rombach, DRM, Trethewey, Amico, Murtagh, McKinney, Mooney, Moore, Fondrk, Potter

Maybe I’m forgetting someone obvious, but 15 players you’d think are very likely for top 2 rounds. Likely we get roughly half in the first round, and very possibly the 1OA.

Seems like that’d be a pretty good draft, all things considered.
Just a lot of "meh" in that group IMHO. Of course they could take steps of growth post draft, but only a few there that excite me.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Dec 8, 2013
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Just a lot of "meh" in that group IMHO. Of course they could take steps of growth post draft, but only a few there that excite me.
Seems like that's the 2025 draft outside of 5-8 players.

People lamented that we didn't hit our numbers last year. Now we might hit the numbers but they don't excite us enough? I'm not saying you're wrong that they're not that exciting, but it seems a little bit of a hard proposition to satisfy.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Seems like that's the 2025 draft outside of 5-8 players.

People lamented that we didn't hit our numbers last year. Now we might hit the numbers but they don't excite us enough? I'm not saying you're wrong that they're not that exciting, but it seems a little bit of a hard proposition to satisfy.
There's more higher producing exciting Canadians.
 

jtechkid

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May 24, 2024
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Despite all the doom and gloom, 2025 seems like a strong draft for American players.

Hagens, Hensler, Vansaghi, Fiddler, Kevan, Rombach, DRM, Trethewey, Amico, Murtagh, McKinney, Mooney, Moore, Fondrk, Potter

Maybe I’m forgetting someone obvious, but 15 players you’d think are very likely for top 2 rounds. Likely we get roughly half in the first round, and very possibly the 1OA.

Seems like that’d be a pretty good draft, all things considered.
outside top say 6-8 this is extremely weak draft - fortescue and minnetian went in third round they are more solid than fidler , hensler , trethaway, amico , rombach who everybody thinks going late first or second to put in perpective . cole hutson broke ntdp record and he went second round is 50x more offensive than that group . outside of hagens their no slam dunks at the forward group forget the nhl - will they even dominate college hockey is a stretch .
 

MichaelFarrell

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outside top say 6-8 this is extremely weak draft - fortescue and minnetian went in third round they are more solid than fidler , hensler , trethaway, amico , rombach who everybody thinks going late first or second to put in perpective . cole hutson broke ntdp record and he went second round is 50x more offensive than that group . outside of hagens their no slam dunks at the forward group forget the nhl - will they even dominate college hockey is a stretch .
Completely disagree that Fortrscue and Minnetian are better prospects than Hensler, Fiddler, and Amico.

Minnetian is an undersized defenseman that doesn’t produce offensively. Drew is decent I guess but I definitely don’t think he’s necessarily a better prospects than those I’ve listed.

Hensler has the highest ceiling out of any of these players imo. He’s had a slower start in college for sure, but he is very good. I’m certain Fiddler will find a role in the NHL. He is a very good defensive defender. Amico is a wildcard but he could turn into a guy that adds physicality to go along with his solid mobility.

I can see what those three players could add to an NHL team far easier than what Minnetian and Fortescue could add. In terms of NHL projection, I would personally draft those three before Aram and Drew.
 
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jtechkid

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Completely disagree that Fortrscue and Minnetian are better prospects than Hensler, Fiddler, and Amico.

Minnetian is an undersized defenseman that doesn’t produce offensively. Drew is decent I guess but I definitely don’t think he’s necessarily a better prospects than those I’ve listed.

Hensler has the highest ceiling out of any of these players imo. He’s had a slower start in college for sure, but he is very good. I’m certain Fiddler will find a role in the NHL. He is a very good defensive defender. Amico is a wildcard but he could turn into a guy that adds physicality to go along with his solid mobility.

I can see what those three players could add to an NHL team far easier than what Minnetian and Fortescue could add. In terms of NHL projection, I would personally draft those three before Aram and Drew.
fortescue and minnitian made world junior team both years and had a pretty good freshmen year and sophmore year at boston college. I dont think those two are studs but not bad 3-4 th round picks in comparison who lot people think first round potential for the group above.
 

Hockeyville USA

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This doesn’t make any sense to me

Will Horcoff even play that much? Michigan lost a defenseman (Lovell) only to add a forward (Horcoff). I know Michigan is not that deep this year but it isn't like Horcoff is anything special at the junior level, hard to see him playing a huge role.

Wonder how the NTDP lineup will shake up following this midseason loss.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
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Will Horcoff even play that much? Michigan lost a defenseman (Lovell) only to add a forward (Horcoff). I know Michigan is not that deep this year but it isn't like Horcoff is anything special at the junior level, hard to see him playing a huge role.

Wonder how the NTDP lineup will shake up following this midseason loss.
They have 11 without him. They’ll probably just promote Mutryn full time, as he’s been rotating between the two teams.

And then in March (potentially earlier if any injuries) they’ll start giving Berchild, Hurlbert, Nelson or someone like that some reps. Then Kevan or Moe or someone like that might be added for the U18 Worlds.
 
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