2024-25 USNTDP U18 Discussion

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There should probably be a discussion thread for the NTDP teams with all the interest on the program and the many draft prospects the team has.

First game of the season tonight. Looks like there’s a lot of injuries and to some of the best players to start out. Hopefully none serious.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1834713675589898606

Click to read more...

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Very excited see them play next week at the USHL Fall Classic. LJ Mooney is a local kid so I’m sure he’ll get a lot of support. Every year a couple of guys always catch my eye at this event even if the team doesn’t look great on paper.

 

[Wildabeast]

Are they going to be live streaming this for free like last years home games?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Horcoff will have a better year

 

[95snipes]

Just an exhibition game, but this looks like the best group from the NTDP since the '04s. Not sure if there will be a top 10 pick here, but I can easily see 9+ in the top 50.

A few things stood out to me as early impressions.

Drew Schock looks like he's taken a step forward. Last year I saw an undersized defenseman without elite offense. Now a 6'0 defenseman who's a plus skater and can move the puck.

Conrad Fondrk looks bigger and faster which is what I was hoping for. I like his skill level, like his hockey sense, but had some concern it might be another Humphreys situation. Fondrk looked a little bit bigger and a little bit more explosive than last year which is encouraging.

I'm liking what I saw from Landon Hafele.

 

[FrHockeyFan]

Are they going to be live streaming this for free like last years home games?

Yep

https://usahockeytv.com/upcoming-event?channel_id=2

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837147039953535223

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

They got lit up tonight, 6-3. Cole McKinney had two goals. Hafele got the early shot to take Potter's top 6 role, centered by Moore and Murtagh as the RW. McKinney was centering Mooney and Fondrk. Amico paired with Barnett, and Trethewey with Phillips. Quinlan got game 1.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837582573012197805

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837612173129879571

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837616431799718311

 

[Nabrules]

hadn’t followed the U17s much last year, (now U18s) who is the best player on the team?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

hadn’t followed the U17s much last year, (now U18s) who is the best player on the team?

Not that type of team. There’s like 7 or 8 players who could become the first picked amongst the group. Moore, Murtagh, Fondrk, McKinney, Mooney, Trethewey, and Amico. Potter left early for ASU, but was part of that.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I've been pretty impressed with Jack Murtagh today.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Not that type of team. There’s like 7 or 8 players who could become the first picked amongst the group. Moore, Murtagh, Fondrk, McKinney, Mooney, Trethewey, and Amico. Potter left early for ASU, but was part of that.

I think as of right now, Cole McKinney will be the first USNTDP player taken. Great all-around game.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Bounce back win today. Murtagh had 2+0. Horcoff and Hafele had 1+1. Slavick and Boettiger split the game in net.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837936302018216256

https://x.com/i/web/status/1837941077476573282

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think as of right now, Cole McKinney will be the first USNTDP player taken. Great all-around game.

Personally, I’m very undecided. I want to see how everyone progresses.

It’s gonna be one of the big 7 (the five forwards Moore, McKinney, Murtagh, Mooney, and Fondrk or the two defensemen in Trethewey or Amico). Phillips maybe has the most remote of chances, but honestly even if he can sneak into the first round I still think he’s too much of a work in progress to become the highest regarded after only one more season.

I’m somewhat ruling out Moore, Fondrk, and Mooney for now. Like I get it’s possible, but I don’t see it. Moore is too floaty and inconsistent and not truly skilled enough, even if he’s tall and skates well and has some offense. Fondrk is too much of a good, not special, opportunistic winger. I don’t know if he has first round upside. Seems a very safe early second range bet to me. Mooney, how could you not like LJ? But he’s 5’8, and I think we’ve seen the trend with players that size. Talk to me if he measures in at 5’10 at the combine. Until then, I wouldn’t expect any higher than where Stankoven got picked (#47).

Brings me to the four candidates with McKinney, Murtagh, Trethewey, and Amico.

Trethewey is just such a 6.5 out of 10 player for me. People inflated what he is because he’s moderately big and registered high point totals early last season. By the end of the season he wasn’t even playing more than second/third pair minutes (and no promotion to the 18’s that Mooney and McKinney got). Someone has to be PP1 defenseman for each NTDP year, and he’s the guy for this team. He deserves that, but he’s very okay. I think he’s a mid first round pick probably. I’m just not sure you’re getting an impact NHL’er. I think he’s a safe bet to be an NHL 3-5D. I don’t see the holes, but he’s not really it when it comes to future star power. Could be first by default because everyone else isn’t that good. It’s possible.

My three favorites are McKinney, Murtagh, and Amico, but we’ll see with each of them. They have things they need to prove this season. I don’t think any of them are sure things to be NHL stars.

McKinney isn’t going to put up eye popping point totals. His best qualities are being a defensive center. Faceoffs, positioning, always being above the puck, penalty killing, anticipating where to steal the puck. Not the types of things that register much on a stat sheet, but the types of things if you watch someone like Barkov closely you will see in spades. McKinney has some offense, but I don’t know, he’s probably a 2C, at best. A right handed Danault if it goes well. How high of a draft ceiling is there for that? Maybe fringe top 10?

Murtagh I think was perpetually underrated last season, but he is what he is also. He’s a complimentary winger. He’s not the best skater or the biggest or the most skilled, but he’s a competitive winger with solid size and some physicality and offense and can get around the ice well enough. Is there first line upside? Maybe he’ll find a way, but seems like a safe bet for a second or third line winger. First round pick? Sure, and I think he’s trending towards it. Mid first round pick? Yeah, I could see it. Top 10 pick? That’s where I’m questioning if there’s the upside for that.

Amico is the guy with the upside, but I don’t know if it’ll materialize. He hasn’t gotten much power play time yet at the NTDP. Trethewey is a deserving candidate and they need to try to find a way to get Bracco and Schock drafted, so it’s tough to also give an obvious PK guy PP time. But I mean you can’t teach 6’5 217, right shot, mean, a very good skater, and an underrated puck mover and handler that shows some offensive instincts. He made improvements as last season went on in actually turning the tools into good defense. He’s at least what Emery is, but even better physical tools and earlier progression from an athlete to a good hockey player and more offense. Yeah, that’s a top 20 pick, but probably needs real power play time to threaten top 10, which I think he has the capability of, but you can’t pick a dude top 10 who isn’t showing much offense.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Personally, I’m very undecided. I want to see how everyone progresses.

It’s gonna be one of the big 7 (the five forwards Moore, McKinney, Murtagh, Mooney, and Fondrk or the two defensemen in Trethewey or Amico). Phillips maybe has the most remote of chances, but honestly even if he can sneak into the first round I still think he’s too much of a work in progress to become the highest regarded after only one more season.

I’m somewhat ruling out Moore, Fondrk, and Mooney for now. Like I get it’s possible, but I don’t see it. Moore is too floaty and inconsistent and not truly skilled enough, even if he’s tall and skates well and has some offense. Fondrk is too much of a good, not special, opportunistic winger. I don’t know if he has first round upside. Seems a very safe early second range bet to me. Mooney, how could you not like LJ? But he’s 5’8, and I think we’ve seen the trend with players that size. Talk to me if he measures in at 5’10 at the combine. Until then, I wouldn’t expect any higher than where Stankoven got picked (#47).

Brings me to the four candidates with McKinney, Murtagh, Trethewey, and Amico.

Trethewey is just such a 6.5 out of 10 player for me. People inflated what he is because he’s moderately big and registered high point totals early last season. By the end of the season he wasn’t even playing more than second/third pair minutes (and no promotion to the 18’s that Mooney and McKinney got). Someone has to be PP1 defenseman for each NTDP year, and he’s the guy for this team. He deserves that, but he’s very okay. I think he’s a mid first round pick probably. I’m just not sure you’re getting an impact NHL’er. I think he’s a safe bet to be an NHL 3-5D. I don’t see the holes, but he’s not really it when it comes to future star power. Could be first by default because everyone else isn’t that good. It’s possible.

My three favorites are McKinney, Murtagh, and Amico, but we’ll see with each of them. They have things they need to prove this season. I don’t think any of them are sure things to be NHL stars.

McKinney isn’t going to put up eye popping point totals. His best qualities are being a defensive center. Faceoffs, positioning, always being above the puck, penalty killing, anticipating where to steal the puck. Not the types of things that register much on a stat sheet, but the types of things if you watch someone like Barkov closely you will see in spades. McKinney has some offense, but I don’t know, he’s probably a 2C, at best. A right handed Danault if it goes well. How high of a draft ceiling is there for that? Maybe fringe top 10?

Murtagh I think was perpetually underrated last season, but he is what he is also. He’s a complimentary winger. He’s not the best skater or the biggest or the most skilled, but he’s a competitive winger with solid size and some physicality and offense and can get around the ice well enough. Is there first line upside? Maybe he’ll find a way, but seems like a safe bet for a second or third line winger. First round pick? Sure, and I think he’s trending towards it. Mid first round pick? Yeah, I could see it. Top 10 pick? That’s where I’m questioning if there’s the upside for that.

Amico is the guy with the upside, but I don’t know if it’ll materialize. He hasn’t gotten much power play time yet at the NTDP. Trethewey is a deserving candidate and they need to try to find a way to get Bracco and Schock drafted, so it’s tough to also give an obvious PK guy PP time. But I mean you can’t teach 6’5 217, right shot, mean, a very good skater, and an underrated puck mover and handler that shows some offensive instincts. He made improvements as last season went on in actually turning the tools into good defense. He’s at least what Emery is, but even better physical tools and earlier progression from an athlete to a good hockey player and more offense. Yeah, that’s a top 20 pick, but probably needs real power play time to threaten top 10, which I think he has the capability of, but you can’t pick a dude top 10 who isn’t showing much offense.

I think that’s a good write up. I really believe that so many of these players are very close in skill level. You mentioned McKinney, Murtagh, and Amico. I think that’s a fair top 3 on some nights but it waivers for me quite a bit. So far, it’s been very difficult to come up with who I think are the best players.

Where it stands right now, I think Landon Hafele will be the highest drafted player on the team (albeit in 2026).

As of today, I have McKinney ranked 19 as a placeholder. I haven’t scouted that many players yet, but I feel comfortable putting him there. I think he is the safest bet to go 1st round.

I think there are a ton of players on this team that will go 2nd and 3rd round. I’d keep a close eye on Carter Amico, Mace’o Phillips, Conrad Fondrk, and Jack Murtagh as the guys that could sneak into the first round, but none of them could go just as easily.

I do not expect Mooney to go high at all. I expect Bracco, Lindberg, Vig, Gallant, and Kvasnicka to go undrafted.

There are so many wildcards on this team though. I don’t think you’ve been very high on Horcoff, but he will get drafted for sure. I didn’t mind his game at all.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There are so many wildcards on this team though. I don’t think you’ve been very high on Horcoff, but he will get drafted for sure. I didn’t mind his game at all.

I think with Horcoff I’ve tried defending him a few times to no avail. If I’m not a big fan (and admittedly probably not a big fan), some people really aren’t fans of this guy. But yeah, he has the size and defensive acumen and if he starts scoring with also having the NHL pedigree, he’s going to be drafted higher than people think.

Hafele looked okay to me last year. Didn’t see a future first, but Zeev was kind of similar (maybe a little better) his U17 year and then the U18 was progressively better, and then U19 was great, so those jumps can happen.