Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

S


So you take is the GM and the player's agent have no discussions about ballpark numbers and players just sit passively by waiting for an offer from the GM? Only then do GMs and agents start discussing salary and term?

No. That is nothing like what I said. I said there were no discussions, AFAIK.

If there is a negotiation, it starts with an offer. I don't know what a more casual, pre-negotiation conversation might go like. But I doubt that either side wants to show his hand at that point. You want to see my cards, you gotta pay. In any negotiation you want the other guy to make the first offer. And he wants you to.

 

[KingBogo]

No. That is nothing like what I said. I said there were no discussions, AFAIK.

If there is a negotiation, it starts with an offer. I don't know what a more casual, pre-negotiation conversation might go like. But I doubt that either side wants to show his hand at that point. You want to see my cards, you gotta pay. In any negotiation you want the other guy to make the first offer. And he wants you to.

Exactly to the bold. That is why you would never make a cold offer without a discussion with the agent on the ballpark of what they were looking for. GMs likely have 100s of discussions with agents with various players looking for work. Why would you make an offer, before you knew the range of what the player was looking for? Why go through the bother if you aren't on the same page? I'm guessing agents shade their initial ask a bit high expecting GMs to go a bit low on their offer. Both sides will feel each other out first, it is pretty much how negotiations work.

 

[DRW204]

Who said we should hand him a spot? I've been following this thread pretty closely but haven't seen that.

It isn't just in sports. Everywhere in life people need a chance to succeed. That does not mean being thrown in the deep end and told to sink or swim.

there's posts all over saying he isn't being given a fair shake.

he's getting a chance at third pair. what else do folks expect? top-4? be real. how about crush it in a third pair role, and progress up, just like samberg did.

apparently heinola needs pristine usage, partners etc.. for real, f*** all the other defenseman who actually show up and put in work to get better at their craft, it's allll about getting heinola optimal usage.

He's not a good fit with the way the team is set up, as I said before. There's 0.5 slots for a 3rd pair left shooting offensive defenseman.

If you can't get a fair shake unless you prove yourself and you can't prove yourself unless you get a fair shake, then you're kind of screwed.

ok he's not a good fit, but how's he not been given a chance?

what are you expecting here? top-4? be real here.
PP? not better than either morrissey or pionk
PK? ok maybe?

he's playing third pair as he should since he's probably the 4th best LHD on the team. how about crush it in that role, and then progress up just like samberg did.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I was a Nic Petan fan. He was fun to watch in the skills competitions.

But the Jets got too many good players in the time he was drafted. The skill guys like KC, Ehlers and Laine all had more skills.

The guys like Copp and Armia or Roslovic and Appleton that he had success with at different levels had more chops, and a more defensive role.

He wasn't as tenacious as Matty P.

He just never found a spot that fit here. And Maurice was going to push Thorburn, Peluso, Brendan Lemieux or Matt Hendricks through the lineup before giving a smaller skilled player a shot.

His dad's suicide came at a time when he was just making the big leagues and I can't even imagine what it did to his headspace.

Still one of my favourites that never made it as far as the potential he had, as a Team Canada gold medalist.

I suspect he was a little resistant to coaching. Just guessing of course. But he must have been told to improve his skating. He never did. Maybe he tried and failed. IDK. It appeared to me like he had the attitude that he knew what worked for him and that is what he was going to bring. It was never quite enough at the NHL level.

His passing was NHL calibre. I remember Buff talking about getting Petaned in TC, referring to receiving an unreal pass. That was a huge compliment from a special player. But if you can't skate fast enough to keep up, your passing skill doesn't help.

But after almost, but not quite making it with 4 NHL organizations it had to be him. He stood out at the AHL level with each of the 4.

He is doing well in the KHL this year though. Finally found his level. I hope he makes a boatload of money over there before he is done. Probably should move to another country where he might be paid in real money for that though.

Exactly to the bold. That is why you would never make a cold offer without a discussion with the agent on the ballpark of what they were looking for. GMs likely have 100s of discussions with agents with various players looking for work. Why would you make an offer, before you knew the range of what the player was looking for? Why go through the bother if you aren't on the same page? I'm guessing agents shade their initial ask a bit high expecting GMs to go a bit low on their offer. Both sides will feel each other out first, it is pretty much how negotiations work.

Why would the agent reveal the range before the team indicates what they are thinking? It goes both ways.

Again, AFAIK there were no negotiations. That's what "I haven't received an offer" means.

 

[KingBogo]

I suspect he was a little resistant to coaching. Just guessing of course. But he must have been told to improve his skating. He never did. Maybe he tried and failed. IDK. It appeared to me like he had the attitude that he knew what worked for him and that is what he was going to bring. It was never quite enough at the NHL level.

His passing was NHL calibre. I remember Buff talking about getting Petaned in TC, referring to receiving an unreal pass. That was a huge compliment from a special player. But if you can't skate fast enough to keep up, your passing skill doesn't help.

But after almost, but not quite making it with 4 NHL organizations it had to be him. He stood out at the AHL level with each of the 4.

He is doing well in the KHL this year though. Finally found his level. I hope he makes a boatload of money over there before he is done. Probably should move to another country where he might be paid in real money for that though.



Why would the agent reveal the range before the team indicates what they are thinking? It goes both ways.

Again, AFAIK there were no negotiations. That's what "I haven't received an offer" means.

Of course an agent will reveal what the are looking for. It is just at the higher end of what they will except. A GM will offer at the bargain end at the lowest they are happy to pay. Negotiations go from there. Mort I'm assuming you've bought a house or new car before. When has anyone ever made a cold offer without knowing what the initial asking price is?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Exactly to the bold. That is why you would never make a cold offer without a discussion with the agent on the ballpark of what they were looking for. GMs likely have 100s of discussions with agents with various players looking for work. Why would you make an offer, before you knew the range of what the player was looking for? Why go through the bother if you aren't on the same page? I'm guessing agents shade their initial ask a bit high expecting GMs to go a bit low on their offer. Both sides will feel each other out first, it is pretty much how negotiations work.

Why would the agent reveal the range before the team indicates what they are thinking? It goes both ways.

Again, AFAIK there were no negotiations. That's what "I haven't received an offer" means.

Then I'm not sure what you are wanting. He's getting into games and getting chances to show he belongs.What else are you expecting?

There is what I would like and what I expect.

Him playing right side with Stanley was outside of both. I'm dubious of evaluating any unproven rookie on his off-side. If you do that I would hope you at least give him a strong partner.

I would LIKE an uninterrupted 10+ games on the left side with an adequate (just adequate) RD partner. Miller fits that.

But injuries are getting in the way. At one point, injuries give opportunity. When they go beyond that point they create less than ideal situations which is what we have now. So I EXPECT Arniel to go with what he believes will give us the best chance to win. If that means Heinola on the right with Stan on the left, hope the pair succeeds. But don't use it as a point of evaluation if they don't. And in fairness, don't judge Stanley too harshly either. He is also playing with a less than ideal partner.

 

[KingBogo]

Why would the agent reveal the range before the team indicates what they are thinking? It goes both ways.

Again, AFAIK there were no negotiations. That's what "I haven't received an offer" means.


There is what I would like and what I expect.

Him playing right side with Stanley was outside of both. I'm dubious of evaluating any unproven rookie on his off-side. If you do that I would hope you at least give him a strong partner.

I would LIKE an uninterrupted 10+ games on the left side with an adequate (just adequate) RD partner. Miller fits that.

But injuries are getting in the way. At one point, injuries give opportunity. When they go beyond that point they create less than ideal situations which is what we have now. So I EXPECT Arniel to go with what he believes will give us the best chance to win. If that means Heinola on the right with Stan on the left, hope the pair succeeds. But don't use it as a point of evaluation if they don't. And in fairness, don't judge Stanley too harshly either. He is also playing with a less than ideal partner.

There was no offer because Chevy wasn't willing to go where Dillon's agent was asking for. Take Nino's contract as an example. His agent made it known that he wanted to stay with the Jets. A few weeks later there was a report they were meeting with Chevy. About a month later they had a contract. There was no report of a contract offer, just that they were talking. I think you are caught up on Dillon's report of no offer, not that there were no discussions. No offer came after there were unproductive discussions.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So two mid round picks instead of one

2nd rd is not mid-rd.
And prospects are not picks. So far, I'd say that Chib is outperforming his draft position.

Dillon cost us two 2nds and we got 3 full seasons of him. If Risto is rated as = to Dillon of 4 years ago and we get 2.5 seasons of him, how about a 2nd and a 3rd?

I'm not wild about trading away more draft picks but if it is for a player who truly solves a problem and we get a few years of him I think the math works.

I would also consider some prospects who haven't progressed as we would have liked, like Lucius for instance, maybe Barlow. They still have value but their probability of hitting is lower.

 

[Buffdog]

2nd rd is not mid-rd.
And prospects are not picks. So far, I'd say that Chib is outperforming his draft position.

Dillon cost us two 2nds and we got 3 full seasons of him. If Risto is rated as = to Dillon of 4 years ago and we get 2.5 seasons of him, how about a 2nd and a 3rd?

I'm not wild about trading away more draft picks but if it is for a player who truly solves a problem and we get a few years of him I think the math works.

I would also consider some prospects who haven't progressed as we would have liked, like Lucius for instance, maybe Barlow. They still have value but their probability of hitting is lower.

If we're trading for Risto, then either we let Pionk walk or Salomonsson is cockblocked for the foreseeable future

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Of course an agent will reveal what the are looking for. It is just at the higher end of what they will except. A GM will offer at the bargain end at the lowest they are happy to pay. Negotiations go from there. Mort I'm assuming you've bought a house or new car before. When has anyone ever made a cold offer without knowing what the initial asking price is?

Every single negotiation one goes first. It can be either one. Why are you assuming that it must be the agent to name the first number? My guess would be that it is more often the team, but I doubt that either of us knows.

None of that matters. The only thing we know and the only thing that matters is that Dillon said he hadn't received an offer. If the agent started too high, that is only what is expected anyway. Then the GM counters with too low. That never happened. At least not until too late.

 

[KingBogo]

Every single negotiation one goes first. It can be either one. Why are you assuming that it must be the agent to name the first number? My guess would be that it is more often the team, but I doubt that either of us knows.

None of that matters. The only thing we know and the only thing that matters is that Dillon said he hadn't received an offer. If the agent started too high, that is only what is expected anyway. Then the GM counters with too low. That never happened. At least not until too late.

Exactly, but no side goes first with a binding offer. You discuss around the edges of what you want. Once you feel close then you might make an offer. I'm guessing the GM and agent have many discussions before an official offer. "We might be willing to accept a little less AAV, for a 4th year, but I will need to discuss further with my client". "I might be willing to give a 15 team NTC, if I can get a little more manageable AAV number". They likely have a dozen conversations like that before any official contract offer.

 

[tbcwpg]

Exactly, but no side goes first with a binding offer. You discuss around the edges of what you want. Once you feel close then you might make an offer. I'm guessing the GM and agent have many discussions before an official offer. "We might be willing to accept a little less AAV, for a 4th year, but I will need to discuss further with my client". "I might be willing to give a 15 team NTC, if I can get a little more manageable AAV number". They likely have a dozen conversations like that before any official contract offer.

I'd even suggest that in many negotiations the actual dollar amount is one of the last things discussed. There are all kinds of bonuses or other factors in these contracts that are important to players where dollar amount is secondary.

One example from baseball recently is Corbin Burnes signing with Arizona for less money than he was offered by Toronto. It doesn't seem money was as important to him than other contract details.

 

[Jack7222]

The hand outs are instead of earning a spot they want him to be handed 10 games because of his draft position or because it's not fair, he had to play with Miller or it's not fair he had to play with Stanley or for any of the excuses he gets. It rare a poster wants those 10-20 games of sink or swim because he earned it.

He's getting his opportunities, he will get more as he earns more. But you don't deserve to be handed 20 games because of draft position. That's silly.

If "spoiling" Ville by giving him 30 totally undeserved games with a good partner in an ideal situation (one that feels like completely unfair coddling of a prospect) results in him being a good NHL'er then the Jets should do that.

It's one thing if you feel like resources are being wasted on Ville because you just don't think he's going to ever be a good player; I understand and respect that argument. But I don't really care for the 'undeserved' moralizing; it just seems like cruft to me. This is a player who has excelled at every level and hasn't yet taken the next step, and Jets should always give prospects (to the best of their ability, obviously balanced with our desire to win games) the best chance to succeed possible... not make it harder in some way so they can say "I guess you weren't tough enough lol" because why? To satisfy some moral need at their own expense?

 

[WolfHouse]

2nd rd is not mid-rd.
And prospects are not picks. So far, I'd say that Chib is outperforming his draft position.

Dillon cost us two 2nds and we got 3 full seasons of him. If Risto is rated as = to Dillon of 4 years ago and we get 2.5 seasons of him, how about a 2nd and a 3rd?

I'm not wild about trading away more draft picks but if it is for a player who truly solves a problem and we get a few years of him I think the math works.

I would also consider some prospects who haven't progressed as we would have liked, like Lucius for instance, maybe Barlow. They still have value but their probability of hitting is lower.

If you look at the window for chib... he only has value for the duration of risto contract if we move on from ehlers

i think he could be a very good player... but if risto means we free jomo from shutdown duties... im in.

 

[TS Quint]

Why would the agent reveal the range before the team indicates what they are thinking? It goes both ways.

Again, AFAIK there were no negotiations. That's what "I haven't received an offer" means.


There is what I would like and what I expect.

Him playing right side with Stanley was outside of both. I'm dubious of evaluating any unproven rookie on his off-side. If you do that I would hope you at least give him a strong partner.

I would LIKE an uninterrupted 10+ games on the left side with an adequate (just adequate) RD partner. Miller fits that.

But injuries are getting in the way. At one point, injuries give opportunity. When they go beyond that point they create less than ideal situations which is what we have now. So I EXPECT Arniel to go with what he believes will give us the best chance to win. If that means Heinola on the right with Stan on the left, hope the pair succeeds. But don't use it as a point of evaluation if they don't. And in fairness, don't judge Stanley too harshly either. He is also playing with a less than ideal partner.

Why do you believe players can't be judged for what they do independently from specifically their partner? Why do forwards not matter in you evaluation? What is the big deal about playing his offside? For an offensive defenseman there are advantages. What in Ville's game are you seeing him do poorly because of being on his off side?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Oh hey look, I took a penalty!

 

[TS Quint]

If "spoiling" Ville by giving him 30 totally undeserved games with a good partner in an ideal situation (one that feels like completely unfair coddling of a prospect) results in him being a good NHL'er then the Jets should do that.

It's one thing if you feel like resources are being wasted on Ville because you just don't think he's going to ever be a good player; I understand and respect that argument. But I don't really care for the 'undeserved' moralizing; it just seems like cruft to me. This is a player who has excelled at every level and hasn't yet taken the next step, and Jets should always give prospects (to the best of their ability, obviously balanced with our desire to win games) the best chance to succeed possible... not make it harder in some way so they can say "I guess you weren't tough enough lol" because why? To satisfy some moral need at their own expense?

Why do you think 30 unearned games guarantees you a good NHL player. Most of the developed teams seem to disagree with this. Why is Ville so special he some how deserves this? Why wouldn't this work with Stanley? Or every other AHLer?

There are lots of good AHLers that don't make the NHL. Petan was good Niku was good, where are they now? Being good in the AHL doesn't hurt but the NHL is another level to prove yourself at. Start by being good on the 3rd pair when you get your chance and you will get more opportunities. You want 30 games? Be good in the 1st game.

This is a 1st place team. There's no rearranging the team just for Ville.

 

[Gm0ney]

there's posts all over saying he isn't being given a fair shake.

he's getting a chance at third pair. what else do folks expect? top-4? be real. how about crush it in a third pair role, and progress up, just like samberg did.

apparently heinola needs pristine usage, partners etc.. for real, f*** all the other defenseman who actually show up and put in work to get better at their craft, it's allll about getting heinola optimal usage.

ok he's not a good fit, but how's he not been given a chance?

what are you expecting here? top-4? be real here.
PP? not better than either morrissey or pionk
PK? ok maybe?

he's playing third pair as he should since he's probably the 4th best LHD on the team. how about crush it in that role, and then progress up just like samberg did.

Is there a strawman posting somewhere that Heinola needs "pristine usage"?

Or is any arrangement that specifies playing Heinola in more than 8 consecutive games on his natural side with a partner who's somewhat competent your definition of pristine?

 

[TS Quint]

He is doing well in the KHL this year though. Finally found his level. I hope he makes a boatload of money over there before he is done. Probably should move to another country where he might be paid in real money for that though.

Hope he enjoys Russia because he can't get his money out.

 

[Jack7222]

Why do you think 30 unearned games guarantees you a good NHL player. Most of the developed teams seem to disagree with this. Why is Ville so special he some how deserves this? Why wouldn't this work with Stanley? Or every other AHLer?

There are lots of good AHLers that don't make the NHL. Petan was good Niku was good, where are they now? Being good in the AHL doesn't hurt but the NHL is another level to prove yourself at. Start by being good on the 3rd pair when you get your chance and you will get more opportunities. You want 30 games? Be good in the 1st game.

This is a 1st place team. There's no rearranging the team just for Ville.

I don't think 30 games guarantees you a good NHL player; I think Ville's draft pedigree and excellence at previous levels means the Jets should set up him properly to make the next step, and if he doesn't then fine.

Stanley was paired with Demelo for a whole year, basically treated with kid gloves compared to Ville. Feels like the Org really wants Stanley to succeed, which I'm sure has allowed Stanley to maximize his potential.

 

[DRW204]

Is there a strawman posting somewhere that Heinola needs "pristine usage"?

Or is any arrangement that specifies playing Heinola in more than 8 consecutive games on his natural side with a partner who's somewhat competent your definition of pristine?

You said it yourself in post 2071. He's not a good fit on this team as a current third pair d. So what's the alternative, and where do you expect him to play outside the third pair? Top 4 nope. Special teams nope.... Sorry he's not good enough or better than any of the regulars.

Incompetent partner... Typical, just absolve Heinola's incompetent play. Neither are good players however
What's Heinola's stats look like away from Stanley?

Heinola can easily stick in the lineup if his play dictated it, it's not been the case previously.

 

[Wpgpage]

I've been on Risto since last year the guy really seems to have turned it around. I don't think he's a top pair player but on a 2nd or 3rd pair I think he would be great and would add some grit that they lost with Dillon leaving but on the right side which works better for the Jets deployment. 2nd in 2026 3rd in 2027 and Rashevsky. For Risto @ 20% retention.

Jake McCabe @50% (2 years remaining) plus Laferty (1 year remaining) went for a conditional 1st a 2nd and a couple of depth prospects a few years ago. I think in terms of value McCabe and Risto are pretty similar. There's a million less in retention so that lowers the return a bit.

Maybe there's a bigger trade to be had there with Risto and Frost for a 1st plus? That starts to get complicated.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There was no offer because Chevy wasn't willing to go where Dillon's agent was asking for. Take Nino's contract as an example. His agent made it known that he wanted to stay with the Jets. A few weeks later there was a report they were meeting with Chevy. About a month later they had a contract. There was no report of a contract offer, just that they were talking. I think you are caught up on Dillon's report of no offer, not that there were no discussions. No offer came after there were unproductive discussions.

I think you are caught up in a lot of speculation. No offer after unproductive discussions is possible but there is no basis for assuming an unreasonable ask.

There was a reported offer eventually, but too late. The time to extend him had passed months earlier.

If we're trading for Risto, then either we let Pionk walk or Salomonsson is cockblocked for the foreseeable future

If we pick up a top 4 RHD with term, I would assume we are letting Pionk walk.

If you look at the window for chib... he only has value for the duration of risto contract if we move on from ehlers

i think he could be a very good player... but if risto means we free jomo from shutdown duties... im in.

I'm not going to be surprised if Ehlers walks. But a good player always has value. If we end up with too many wingers we trade one, or more if necessary.

Why do you believe players can't be judged for what they do independently from specifically their partner? Why do forwards not matter in you evaluation? What is the big deal about playing his offside? For an offensive defenseman there are advantages. What in Ville's game are you seeing him do poorly because of being on his off side?

He's getting better on the right but the first few games he seemed more hesitant there than on the left. Like he was having to pause for thought.

Why isn't Stan the one being asked to play his off-side? Why ask the rookie to do it? Could it be because he was bad there when tried in the past?

Every player is affected by his partner/linemates.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hope he enjoys Russia because he can't get his money out.

What are the oligarchs paying in these days, rubles or bitcoin?

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think you are caught up in a lot of speculation. No offer after unproductive discussions is possible but there is no basis for assuming an unreasonable ask.

There was a reported offer eventually, but too late. The time to extend him had passed months earlier.



If we pick up a top 4 RHD with term, I would assume we are letting Pionk walk.



I'm not going to be surprised if Ehlers walks. But a good player always has value. If we end up with too many wingers we trade one, or more if necessary.



He's getting better on the right but the first few games he seemed more hesitant there than on the left. Like he was having to pause for thought.

Why isn't Stan the one being asked to play his off-side? Why ask the rookie to do it? Could it be because he was bad there when tried in the past?

Every player is affected by his partner/linemates.

Could be because they know Heinola has had experience at other levels on both sides. One has experience at a position, but, is a rookie the other has never played the other side, but, as far they are concerned as many other valuable attributes.
They also know they don’t have a 4th guy on the other side of Heinola can make it work his chances of staying are greater than a side that they have depth at.