Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[DRW204]

I agree Helly is right there among the top elite goalies in the league, but we compare favorably (at least in the regular season) with teams with other elite goalies with probably stronger overall rosters. And really how much can you shelter a 2nd line? On the road we would be very vulnerable to hard matchups. Sorry but to me this seems like an argument to maximize Ehlers counting numbers over overall team success. If anything we should probably look at ways at balancing out the 4 lines as a strategy for success rather than try and maximize the 1st line.

No. You chose to frame it that way to fit your own narrative or bias.

Last year the Jets overall top6 faired better in net goals with Ehlers on the top line. The second line was still V good, although partially didn't include Connor. Zero mention of ehlers' individual stats.

 

[KingBogo]

No, that was with PLD. I don't know of any other time he played with a different C. I'm sure there must have been some very short periods when Scheif was injured, or suspended , but I don't recall any detail. I'm sure it would have been pretty short term though.

Right now, we are short a 2C. I'm still hoping Names recaptures whatever it was that worked last year. KC couldn't make that line any worse right now though, could he?

I think not having a real #2 center is going to eventually come to bite us on our ass. Names is a really nice utility player who can be inserted throughout the lineup, but he is a not a true top 6 center. And of terms of KC how many teams purposely put a 40+ goal scorer on a line without a top 6 center? You have to give Connor offensive chances. IMO the Jets are locked into their current deployment until we get a #2 center. It was one of the reasons I was such a big advocate of giving Lambert a shot in the lineup.

You keep saying that. What makes you think that the sum of the 2 lines is better that way than with Ehlers and Connor switched?

Because Ehlers can drive his own line and Connor can't. Who drives the 2nd line if you switch them out?

 

[KingBogo]

Why would Connor+Scheifele maximize team success? Last year, Connor away from Scheifele was a small negative in goal differential. Connor+Scheifele was also a small negative. But Scheifele+Ehlers was a much greater positive than Ehlers without Scheifele.

So removing Connor from Scheifele didn't hurt Connor, and helped Scheifele. Who cares about Ehlers if it results in a better goal differential?

So who do you play Connor with? We don't have a 2nd line center. We have Lowry and a couple 4th line centers. Connor can't drive a line so do you just put a 40+ goal scorer in limbo waiting for his PP time?

 

[Buffdog]

You may want to check the lineup configs that contributed mostly to that. And currently what is the worst line in 5v5 goal differential?

For reference we were +57 last year at 5v5 which contributed to the +61 at all strengths.

What's with the hard-on for 5v5?

Is there some kind of data that shows that 5v5 goal differential is a better predictor of success than all stregths?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But last season we had the 4th best goal differential rate in the league, and we are right there again early in this season. Do you think this team is better than that? We don't currently have a real #2 center so weakening the 2nd line further might very well start costing us in terms of goal differential.

I'm trying to move on, so I will just say do the arithmetic.

What's with the hard-on for 5v5?

Is there some kind of data that shows that 5v5 goal differential is a better predictor of success than all stregths?

It is only 5v5 that people are suggesting changing. The other situations can be left as is.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think the argument is that "pretty close to even" isn't good enough for your top line

I sure would like to know what would be good enough in terms of goal differential and xGF% though. I have a feeling there might be goalpost creepage on that

Top Lines on playoff teams last year (2023-24 regular season, min 80 minutes together):

BOS: X-Zacha-Pastrnak 47-24 +23
CAR: X-Aho-Jarvis 24-6 +18
COL: X-MacK-Rantanen 70-42 +28
DAL: Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz 41-33 +8
EDM: Hyman-McD-RNH 34-20 +14
FLA: Reinhart-Barkov-X 51-23 +28
LAK: Kempe-Kopitar-Byfield 30-15 +15
NAS: Forsberg-O'Reilly-Nyquist 46-31 +15
NYR: Lafrenire-Trocheck-Panarin 54-39 +15
NYI: X-Horvat-Barzal 47-32 +15
TBL: X-Point-Kucherov 55-51 +4
TOR: X-Matthews-Marner 25-16 +9
VAN: X-Miller-Boeser 50-24 +26
VGK: Barbashev-Eichel-X 34-22 +12
WSH: X-McMichael-Mantha? 13-15 -2
WPG: Connor-Scheifele-Not-Ehlers 24-24 +0

For the Jets, that's CSV and CS-Iafallo combined (CSV -2, CSI +2). CS-Names didn't make the cut (<80 minutes together) but they were -3. CSE was +4.

 

[Romang67]

So who do you play Connor with? We don't have a 2nd line center. We have Lowry and a couple 4th line centers. Connor can't drive a line so do you just put a 40+ goal scorer in limbo waiting for his PP time?

I probably put him on the second line and hope the $7M per year winger doesn't get outscored at a rate that negates the improvement of the top line. Last year, that would have been 1.3 goals per 60 minutes.

I think Connor could manage.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think not having a real #2 center is going to eventually come to bite us on our ass. Names is a really nice utility player who can be inserted throughout the lineup, but he is a not a true top 6 center. And of terms of KC how many teams purposely put a 40+ goal scorer on a line without a top 6 center? You have to give Connor offensive chances. IMO the Jets are locked into their current deployment until we get a #2 center. It was one of the reasons I was such a big advocate of giving Lambert a shot in the lineup.


Because Ehlers can drive his own line and Connor can't. Who drives the 2nd line if you switch them out?

It is biting us in the ass now. It can only get better. Even if KC contributes nothing to that line, it has contributed 0 so far. So any gain at all by the 1st line is a net gain overall.

No one is driving that line now. I expect them to turn it around but it hasn't happened yet. If Ehlers is not there then maybe Perfetti starts driving it. He would drive differently than Nik would, but it might work. Or they drive it by committee. Maybe that is why KC has performed better away from Scheifele. Maybe he steps up a bit.

Nik drives by speed and puck carrying. Perfetti would drive by playmaking. As long as someone is driving, does it matter?

Anyway, it doesn't matter because Connor is playing with Scheifele and that is all there is to that. We need a C for the 2nd line.

 

[Buffdog]

Top Lines on playoff teams last year (2023-24 regular season, min 80 minutes together):

BOS: X-Zacha-Pastrnak 47-24 +23
CAR: X-Aho-Jarvis 24-6 +18
COL: X-MacK-Rantanen 70-42 +28
DAL: Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz 41-33 +8
EDM: Hyman-McD-RNH 34-20 +14
FLA: Reinhart-Barkov-X 51-23 +28
LAK: Kempe-Kopitar-Byfield 30-15 +15
NAS: Forsberg-O'Reilly-Nyquist 46-31 +15
NYR: Lafrenire-Trocheck-Panarin 54-39 +15
NYI: X-Horvat-Barzal 47-32 +15
TBL: X-Point-Kucherov 55-51 +4
TOR: X-Matthews-Marner 25-16 +9
VAN: X-Miller-Boeser 50-24 +26
VGK: Barbashev-Eichel-X 34-22 +12
WSH: X-McMichael-Mantha? 13-15 -2
WPG: Connor-Scheifele-Not-Ehlers 24-24 +0

For the Jets, that's CSV and CS-Iafallo combined (CSV -2, CSI +2). CS-Names didn't make the cut (<80 minutes together) but they were -3. CSE was +4.

Wow, thanks for doing that. Must have taken a few minutes

So would we ba happy with results somewhere between McDavid and Matthews? Like +9 over the course of the season? That's similar to Dallas

If so, is it really worth all this discussion over one extra GF every 10 games?

 

[DRW204]

So who do you play Connor with? We don't have a 2nd line center. We have Lowry and a couple 4th line centers. Connor can't drive a line so do you just put a 40+ goal scorer in limbo waiting for his PP time?

The same ppl that Ehlers plays with? What's the problem

 

[KingBogo]

In this whole debate my main concern is not how strong we make the 1st line but how weak do we make the 2nd line. If we put all our eggs in one basket we will become easier to hard match against and we play in a tough division who will take advantage of that especially at when we are on the road. IMO we have a much greater chance with a more balanced lineup that can all produce to some extent and then you rely on a Vezina goalie and good team defense to win more games than you lose.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wow, thanks for doing that. Must have taken a few minutes

So would we ba happy with results somewhere between McDavid and Matthews? Like +9 over the course of the season? That's similar to Dallas

If so, is it really worth all this discussion over one extra GF every 10 games?

Goal differential of +10 makes the PO.
Goal differential of 0? Might sneak in some of the time but just as likely not. Certainly 1st rd exit.

 

[Romang67]

What's with the hard-on for 5v5?

Is there some kind of data that shows that 5v5 goal differential is a better predictor of success than all stregths?

It's not particularly predictive, but the much bigger reason is that they spent less than 30 seconds per game in situations that are labeled even strength but not 5v5. They are also generally fine in those situations, AFAIK. So why not keep them together there?

 

[KingBogo]

I probably put him on the second line and hope the $7M per year winger doesn't get outscored at a rate that negates the improvement of the top line. Last year, that would have been 1.3 goals per 60 minutes.

I think Connor could manage.

I’d agree if we had an actual 2nd line center. As I mentioned in another post that sets us up for hard matchups and a team that starts getting frustrated. IMO stacking the 1st line rather than balancing out the lineup would be the undoing of our team success.

 

[Buffdog]

Goal differential of +10 makes the PO.
Goal differential of 0? Might sneak in some of the time but just as likely not. Certainly 1st rd exit.

I'm not talking total for the team. Just for CSX as a line

But again, I'm curious what the hangup is on the top line specifically when all four lines and special teams factor into overall goal differential, which is the best predictor of future success

 

[KingBogo]

Goal differential of +10 makes the PO.
Goal differential of 0? Might sneak in some of the time but just as likely not. Certainly 1st rd exit.

We had a team goal differential of +61 last season. And a goal differential of +8 so far this season in 3 games. It is a team game after all.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not talking total for the team. Just for CSX as a line

But again, I'm curious what the hangup is on the top line specifically when all four lines and special teams factor into overall goal differential, which is the best predictor of future success

And I'm just providing perspective on how significant that goal differential is.

 

[Buffdog]

We had a team goal differential of +61 last season. And a goal differential of +8 so far this season in 3 games. It is a team game after all.

As we all know now, none of that matters. The only goal differential that matter is Connor and Schief together

And I'm just providing perspective on how significant that goal differential is.

Which goal differential? Connor - Schief or the team as a whole. I think you may be confused about what I was replying to Gmoney about

 

[Romang67]

I’d agree if we had an actual 2nd line center. As I mentioned in another post that sets us up for hard matchups and a team that starts getting frustrated. IMO stacking the 1st line rather than balancing out the lineup would be the undoing of our team success.

I guess I just don't think KC is that bad of a hockey player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We had a team goal differential of +61 last season. And a goal differential of +8 so far this season in 3 games. It is a team game after all.

Like I said to Buffdog, I'm just pointing to the significance of a goal differential of that size. 60, and 70 would have been better. Probably gets us a Presidents Trophy.

 

[DRW204]

I’d agree if we had an actual 2nd line center. As I mentioned in another post that sets us up for hard matchups and a team that starts getting frustrated. IMO stacking the 1st line rather than balancing out the lineup would be the undoing of our team success.

Last year, rough estimate

The top 6 with Ehlers second line: +14
The top 6 with Ehlers on the first line: +25

I guess I just don't think KC is that bad of a hockey player.

If kc is superior to ehlers wouldn't the kc and Scheifele split lead to better balance akin to Chicago's as referenced before

 

[Eyeseeing]

Just stopping by
How is KFC /Scheifele doing?
Any update on Ehlers?

 

[KingBogo]

Like I said to Buffdog, I'm just pointing to the significance of a goal differential of that size. 60, and 70 would have been better. Probably gets us a Presidents Trophy.

We did have a goal differential of +61 last season and it earned us 4th overall in points.

 

[Buffdog]

Like I said to Buffdog, I'm just pointing to the significance of a goal differential of that size. 60, and 70 would have been better. Probably gets us a Presidents Trophy.

Maybe, maybe not. 1st overall was +53, and Florida (who finished 5th behind us) was +68

Nashville (+21) finished a spot ahead of LA (+41)

Lots of examples of that

 

[raideralex99]

Top Lines on playoff teams last year (2023-24 regular season, min 80 minutes together):

BOS: X-Zacha-Pastrnak 47-24 +23
CAR: X-Aho-Jarvis 24-6 +18
COL: X-MacK-Rantanen 70-42 +28
DAL: Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz 41-33 +8
EDM: Hyman-McD-RNH 34-20 +14
FLA: Reinhart-Barkov-X 51-23 +28
LAK: Kempe-Kopitar-Byfield 30-15 +15
NAS: Forsberg-O'Reilly-Nyquist 46-31 +15
NYR: Lafrenire-Trocheck-Panarin 54-39 +15
NYI: X-Horvat-Barzal 47-32 +15
TBL: X-Point-Kucherov 55-51 +4
TOR: X-Matthews-Marner 25-16 +9
VAN: X-Miller-Boeser 50-24 +26
VGK: Barbashev-Eichel-X 34-22 +12
WSH: X-McMichael-Mantha? 13-15 -2
WPG: Connor-Scheifele-Not-Ehlers 24-24 +0

For the Jets, that's CSV and CS-Iafallo combined (CSV -2, CSI +2). CS-Names didn't make the cut (<80 minutes together) but they were -3. CSE was +4.

What do all these stats prove anyways?
To me you are missing one important thing .... the other 2 players on the ice. The 2 defensemen are very important after all if they can't get the puck to the forwards ... who's fault is it?
I not knocking Ehlers ... I like him but he made some terrible give aways but it does not show up on the scoreboard or stats because the other team never scored.
Mack and Rantanen are -7 & -6 and the Avs are 0-4 ... they should be split up right?