Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

We are 3-0 and there are posters who want to bring up their 5v5 xGF% for f***s sake - even though they've been the offensive heros

They're always going to play together. Get over it.

Some people just aren't happy unless they aren't happy

Why can't we both enjoy the 3-0 start and look ahead to probable future outcomes?
Calgary Flames are 4-0. Do you think they will be in contention at the end of the season? Will they even be in the PO? Still, nice for Flames fans right now.

 

[DRW204]

Ya but we are talking about forcing players to play with each other when one player may not want to play with that player.

That is way more common than people think

ok, but i think it's such an obvious or yeah duhh comment to a point that was never made.
if this team was without scheifele for a stretch of time they'd be worse. the next Center in line is lowry who 40 pts would be a career season. whereas wing is where the Jets have v good depth or options. like when KC was out they went 12-2-2 iirc last year.

 

[WaveRaven]

So how does this line choosing go ? They hand Arnie a list and say here ##$&head you're going with this ? Arnie runs upstairs Chevy won't open the door ?

 

[Weezeric]

i've mentioned GF and GA a boatload of times. you can scoff at xGF% (although something needs to be said on the xGA for sure) or corsi which i would to, but the GF-GA numbers are jarring.

someone brought up scheifele & connor as whipping boys as 40 goal scorers.... the average 5v5 +/- of 40 goal scorers with similar level goaltending (top-half of the league) was +18 last year, with a high of +27 and low of +11. when was the last time either of those 2 hit a +18 in a year?

so the fact those two together, still with the best regular season goaltender, aren't even close just gets a hey no worries it's all good?

again, hope ppl keep the same energy with some of the lesser depth charted or paid players on the team.

There are 139 forwards who played more than 1000 minutes last year. Scheifele was 35th on that list for GA/60. Better than McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov and many more top end players. Maybe just maybe, offensive players give up a little on the defensive side.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

ok, but i think it's such an obvious or yeah duhh comment to a point that was never made.
if this team was without scheifele for a stretch of time they'd be worse. the next Center in line is lowry who 40 pts would be a career season. whereas wing is where the Jets have v good depth or options. like when KC was out they went 12-2-2 iirc last year.

But that goes back to the way we are playing now. If we are tight defensively and winning why do we have to change things up and move lines around to generate more offense?

I think they great thing about last year was we were so good defensively and we have the best goalie in the league we could afford to lose top offensive players and keep rolling. Our forward depth was and still is good enough to win because we don't give up a lot.

I have been seeing this argument all over the place, here and other sites where for some reason people are not happy even if we are winning because we are not scoring enough and then they toss out the spreadsheets to show us that we are going to fail don't worry its going to happen because the spreadsheets don't lie. I just don't believe that correlation.

Granted I want to see the 2nd line produce more offense and I think they will but they need some time.

 

[JetsFan815]

ie: middle-6 driving the Jets while the top line is around a marginal (other than 1 month)
maybe this is a plausible strategy? idk. maybe someone can show some other quality PO/successful teams that run a similar marginal top line

I looked at this earlier- certainly not last season. All "top lines" last season ranked by their actual goals % (actual goals not expected so all the stuff like "they only take fewer high quality shots" and "Helle's impact" is baked in):

All the teams whose top lines posted numbers around the Jets trio were not playoff teams. Part of this is because most normal teams when they see that the unit they are deploying the most is not working, change it. But with the Jets, we know that if all 3 of these players stay healthy, that line is most likely going to be a 700-800 minute plus line regardless of results if the past is anything to go by.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why do you want change so badly?

Do ypu think that we should have finished higher than fourth last season or that we should be better than 3-0?

Would you be happier if we were 1-2 but Schief and Ehlers were playing together and their xGF% was 61%? I get the sense that some of you would be

Why are you so set against change? Just because of a 3-0 start? That 3-0 start could so easily be 1-2.

I would obviously prefer 3-0. I don't put much stock in the stats that start with an x. It seems to me that those who use them are always explaining why they failed to match actual results. Scheif and Ehlers have an actual GF% pretty close to that number.

 

[surixon]

I'm probably going to get roasted for this but I think Morrissey is better than makar.

He's outscored Cale handily 5v5 over the past 2 seasons. If our pp didn't suck he would likely be outscoring him overall.

Plus he's better than makar defensively. I think Morrissey is underrated.

Not sure I'd rate him ahead of Makar but he's comfortably top 10 at his position and other then Helle our only other franchise cornerstone piece.

This team has elite talent, it's just not at the more sexy forward position.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know these boards are a good place to piss on players, and everyone gets it. Some more than others. But the grass isn't greener. Is it true that the Jets only sold less than 9 000 season tickets? Do the Jets eventually spend well behind the Cap threshhold if fans stop investing in the team?

Jets sold ~10,000 ST this year, up ~500 from last year.

 

[DRW204]

But that goes back to the way we are playing now. If we are tight defensively and winning why do we have to change things up and move lines around to generate more offense?

I think they great thing about last year was we were so good defensively and we have the best goalie in the league we could afford to lose top offensive players and keep rolling. Our forward depth was and still is good enough to win because we don't give up a lot.

I have been seeing this argument all over the place, here and other sites where for some reason people are not happy even if we are winning because we are not scoring enough and then they toss out the spreadsheets to show us that we are going to fail don't worry its going to happen because the spreadsheets don't lie. I just don't believe that correlation.

Granted I want to see the 2nd line produce more offense and I think they will but they need some time.

at 5v5 we win in spite of our top-line. the top-line ranked below the 2nd or 3rd line in GF vs GA in all but one month last season. how many cup winners have that make-up? not talking fancy stats, xGF none of that.

ok like i said in previous posts, if 2nd line isn't scoring or 3rd line isn't defending as well as they have, i hope you or others chalk up the same excuses or "hey no worries" as you do for the top-line.

I looked at this earlier- certainly not last season. All "top lines" last season ranked by their actual goals % (actual goals not expected so all the stuff like "they only take fewer high quality shots" and "Helle's impact" is baked in):

View attachment 917351

All the teams whose top lines posted numbers around the Jets trio were not playoff teams. Part of this is because most normal teams when they see that the unit they are deploying the most is not working, change it. But with the Jets, we know that if all 3 of these players stay healthy, that line is most likely going to be a 700-800 minute plus line regardless of results if the past is anything to go by.

thnx for this granted it's a lower amount of gp but they didn't perform well in those minutes from the looks of it. and some of the teams ahead of them are like bottom of the league goaltending, meanwhile the Jets had helle+brossoit back-stopping them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That'll happen when you have the best goalie on the planet

People talk about it like it's a bad thing because it's not how they think we should win

"Top line HAS to win it's matchups", they'll say

Of course it is not a bad thing.
But top line losing its matchups means they are being outscored even with the best goalie on the planet behind them.

 

[surixon]

Jets sold ~10,000 ST this year, up ~500 from last year.

Yup, they have stopped the bleeding and have turned things around a bit. They have a lot more work to do but I suspect we average close to 1000 more people a game this year and they continue to trend up in terms of season seats as the economy continues to rebound.

 

[Buffdog]

So how does this line choosing go ? They hand Arnie a list and say here ##$&head you're going with this ? Arnie runs upstairs Chevy won't open the door ?

There's an app. They swipe left or right on each other. When they match, arniel puts them on a line together

 

[DRW204]

There's an app. They swpie left or right on each other. When they match, arniel puts them on a line together

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I'm growing really weary of the whole our team is shit without Hellebuyck nonsense.

Well, maybe if Helly spends 2-3 months on the sidelines this year, we can get a good sample size of whether the team is or isn't shit in his absence.

 

[KingBogo]

So how does this line choosing go ? They hand Arnie a list and say here ##$&head you're going with this ? Arnie runs upstairs Chevy won't open the door ?

Of course it is not a bad thing.
But top line losing its matchups means they are being outscored even with the best goalie on the planet behind them.

So far this season, the top line has been out scored 2-0, 5 on 5 and have out scored their opponent 3-2 even strength. If you consider advanced stats Connor-Scheifele-Valardi are 53.19 CF% and a 52.95 xGF%, 5 on 5, so they are winning possession and are out chancing their matchups so far this season. If you look at even strength, which still actually counts in hockey, the 1st line has a CF% of 55.10% and a xGF% of 56.89%. It is a small sample size but it shows so far this season they are preforming like a top line.

 

[Jet]

Well, maybe if Helly spends 2-3 months on the sidelines this year, we can get a good sample size of whether the team is or isn't shit in his absence.

The problem with that is we don't have a backup.

Now if we ran this simulation with a league average starter that would be fair.

 

[DRW204]

Of course it is not a bad thing.
But top line losing its matchups means they are being outscored even with the best goalie on the planet behind them.

being overly dependent can be a bad thing. when the goalie sucks in the POs and gave up ~5 GA/game for 5 consecutive games how is a team supposed to overcome that.

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

LOL it was not HELLY who won those last 2 games. Both those teams got very good efforts from their goalies as well.

I'm growing really weary of the whole our team is shit without Hellebuyck nonsense.

If the other teams goalies would have been mid we would have won both of them by several goals in regulation.

While I like this year's group of players in front of Helly, I guess we'll find out where things stand when Comrie gets his opportunities to play.

 

[JetsFan815]

So far this season, the top line has been out scored 2-0, 5 on 5 and have out scored their opponent 3-2 even strength. If you consider advanced stats Connor-Scheifele-Valardi are 53.19 CF% and a 52.95 xGF%, 5 on 5, so they are winning possession and are out chancing their matchups so far this season. If you look at even strength, which still actually counts in hockey, the 1st line has a CF% of 55.10% and a xGF% of 56.89%. It is a small sample size but it shows so far this season they are preforming like a top line.

Those "even strength" goals and numbers include 2 goals scored by them at 6 on 5 with the man advantage in an EN situation. If you want to hold that up, that's fine, but I doubt people are gonna cite "Even Strength Goal differential" when the Jets get scored on with the EN which will happen inevitably and counting that as "even strength" is actually gonna add a around -8 to -10 to their goal differential over the course of the season.

 

[Romang67]

Those "even strength" goals and numbers include 2 goals scored by them at 6 on 5 with the man advantage in an EN situation. If you want to hold that up, that's fine, but I doubt people are gonna cite "Even Strength Goal differential" when the Jets get scored on with the EN which will happen inevitably and counting that as "even strength" is actually gonna add a around -8 to -10 to their goal differential over the course of the season.

It will never cease to amaze me how someone looked at the term "Even Strength" and decided that we should include a situation where one of the teams doesn't have 6 skaters on the ice and the other has 5.

I mean, sure, technically including the goalie it's the same number of players on the ice, but can't we just not?

 

[DRW204]

It will never cease to amaze me how someone looked at the term "Even Strength" and decided that we should include a situation where one of the teams doesn't have 6 skaters on the ice and the other has 5.

I mean, sure, technically including the goalie it's the same number of players on the ice, but can't we just not?

so dumb lol. one of the worst things about traditional +/- and can actually lead to large swings.

one of my fav examples is tyler myers in 18-19
5v5 +/-: worst of the Jets Dmen
traditional +/-: best of the Jets Dmen, largely due to EN GF.

 

[WaveRaven]

There's an app. They swipe left or right on each other. When they match, arniel puts them on a line together

Of course. What a dinosaur I am.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

at 5v5 we win in spite of our top-line. the top-line ranked below the 2nd or 3rd line in GF vs GA in all but one month last season. how many cup winners have that make-up? not talking fancy stats, xGF none of that.

ok like i said in previous posts, if 2nd line isn't scoring or 3rd line isn't defending as well as they have, i hope you or others chalk up the same excuses or "hey no worries" as you do for the top-line.


thnx for this granted it's a lower amount of gp but they didn't perform well in those minutes from the looks of it. and some of the teams ahead of them are like bottom of the league goaltending, meanwhile the Jets had helle+brossoit back-stopping them.

My excuse is we are winning. I mean I can't fathom why we have to "change" things when we are winning.

We start to lose and lose a lot fine change things but for the love of the lord almighty if winning last season and starting the year 3-0 and here we are having this conversation about getting poor Ehlers the ice time he deserves because of stats or whatever, I am just done with it.

Like we could win the cup and someone will put in in a thread about how Ehlers only got so much TOI and his XGA was better then Scheif and Connor.

Right now this team wins because we play good defense, we have Helly and thats it and I like that. Give up the least amount of goals again this year and we will win a lot of games.

I have said from the start of the year if this team plays the same way it did last year and improves its special teams we will win a lot of games again.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I actually see both sides of this argument.

I see why Buffdog, myself and others still like the 1st line with 81 and 55 despite what the advanced stats say.
I also see the argument that it's not shitting on Bambi and KFC to want to have them playing on seperate lines to see if we can get a bit better offensive balance and maybe have 2 lines that give up a little less.

At the end of the day, I accept that those 2 will play together, for whatever reason. They have obvious offensive chemistry so at least part of their game works to the Jets benefit.

The one thing that does baffle me is what happened to Mark Scheifele? Obviously I still love the guy but do you remember when he was a 200 foot player? What switch went off in his head that turned him into a guy who give 50% effort defensively? I think it might be too much ice time to be fair, but you deffo don't want a disgruntled Brighteyes loafing around the ice.

I am able to understand the arguments for keeping 81 & 55 together. I think they are mistaken, based on the limited samples we have of both of them playing apart. With the caveat that the samples are limited it appears that both of them actually score more when not together AND the sum of the defensive play is also better.

If we discard that conclusion, for whatever reason, then the larger sample seems very clear that the net effect, both O and D, is still positive if we either break up that pair or add Ehlers to the right side.

I have theorized that it is Scheifele's preference that keeps them together and that may be the best argument for the status quo. As you state in your last sentence, we don't want a disgruntled Scheifele, even if he wouldn't go so far as to deliberately loaf around the ice.

I'm still waiting for Vilardi to be the catalyst that makes that line work. Maybe next game.