2024-25 San Diego Gulls/Tulsa Oilers

[ZegrassyKnoll]

Yeah, if someone told me right now that Nathan Gaucher would have as good of a career as Derek Grant has had, I would take it.

That seems like his upside and I personally have a problem with that. To each their own

There’s no way to say this without coming off as a dick but my advice would be to re-evaluate your expectations for a late first round pick.

A very small number of players will over perform and make you think that everyone else is hitting home runs in the late first round, but 90% of picks in that area are singles at best.

There hasn’t been a single high-performance player taken at 22OA since 2014, and that was Kapanen, who has never topped 44 points.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

There’s no way to say this without coming off as a dick but my advice would be to re-evaluate your expectations for a late first round pick.

A very small number of players will over perform and make you think that everyone else is hitting home runs in the late first round, but 90% of picks in that area are singles at best.

There hasn’t been a single high-performance player taken at 22OA since 2014, and that was Kapanen, who has never topped 44 points.

Draft pick number playing 100 NHL games or more:

That's a steep decline from pick #1 to pick #31.

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Draft pick number playing 200 games or more:

The decline is even steeper when identifying 200 NHL games played between pick #1 to #31.

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People cite how 1st round picks are valuable, but not realize the vast different in talent value between the top-3 picks, picks 4-10, picks 11-19, and picks 20+. There's less of a gamble with top-3 picks. The risk of missing out increases exponentially the further away you are from a top-3 pick until pick 40. Pick 40 is when the drop off changes from an exponential drop to a gradual drop.

Anaheim bucks the trend in defense and goalies.

• Current NHL roster has 4 drafted youths playing:
  • LD Minty (Rd 1, 10th OA)
    81 NHL games
  • LD/RD Zell (Rd 2)
    44 NHL games
  • LD/RD LaCombe (Rd 2)
    86 NHL games
  • RD Helleson (Rd 2, traded pick)
    7 NHL games

• Current NHL roster has both goalies drafted outside the first round:
  • G Dostal (Rd 3)
    80 NHL games
  • G Gibby (Rd 2)
    481 NHL games

Because the Ducks draft well at both defense and goal, they can afford to dedicate top-10 picks to forwards.

2019, 9th OA: C Zegras
2021, 3rd OA: C McTavish
2022, 5th OA: LW Cutter (trade for 2020 6th OA RD Drysdale)
2023, 2nd OA: C Carlsson
2024, 3rd OA: RW Senneck

With several finesse forwards draft in the top-10, Verbeek wanted more defensive-minded support players in 2022 C Gaucher and 2023 Rd2, 33rd OA LW Myatovic. Oddly, Verbeek's stance changed in 2024 with shorter, offensive-minded C Pettersson.

 

[AngelDuck]

There’s no way to say this without coming off as a dick but my advice would be to re-evaluate your expectations for a late first round pick.

A very small number of players will over perform and make you think that everyone else is hitting home runs in the late first round, but 90% of picks in that area are singles at best.

There hasn’t been a single high-performance player taken at 22OA since 2014, and that was Kapanen, who has never topped 44 points.

But the issue is that Gaucher’s best case scenario was never more than a 3rd line center. That was on draft night.

I don’t have a problem with a Perreault who had upside but just didn’t pan out

I have a huge problem with guys that have low upside and don’t pan out

I don’t know why we’re not allowed to criticize Madden’s bad picks and praise the good ones. He doesn’t walk on water, though he is above average I’d say

 

[shach1]

Pointless streaks:
Gaucher 12 games
Myatovic 10 games


If these picks are busts, it shortens are cup window when Terry ages out of his prime in 2030 or 2031.

Missed out on Kulich who scored the gwg against us yesterday, Danila Yurov and Jimmy Snuggurud. 3 top forward prospects rn by drafting Gaucher.

You can get a 4th line C anywhere.

We passed on Andrew Cristal with taking Mayatovic.

Leading scorer in the WHL.

I don't know why you would ever draft a player who basically has a third line ceiling.

Those are the easiest guys to find in FA.


Ritche Tracy Perault Mayatovic Gaucher

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

But the issue is that Gaucher’s best case scenario was never more than a 3rd line center. That was on draft night.

I don’t have a problem with a Perreault who had upside but just didn’t pan out

I have a huge problem with guys that have low upside and don’t pan out

I don’t know why we’re not allowed to criticize Madden’s bad picks and praise the good ones. He doesn’t walk on water, though he is above average I’d say

Let me try to explain my perspective.

Every draft pick from 1 to 224 is a risk at some level, and it all comes down to the value of the pick vs. the risk-value of the player.

If Joe Schmoe is projected to go anywhere from 20th-40th, gets picked at 25th, and fails to pan out, that's not a bad pick - it's just statistics.

25OA is only a moderate-value pick, and his projection of going 20-40 is a moderate value player. If a GM had picked Schmoe at 10OA and he doesn't pan out, that's a bad pick - wasting a high value pick on a moderate value player.

Looking at our case:

Because of the value of the pick and the risk of the player, Sennecke has potential to be a bad pick. I happen to like taking a swing, but if he doesn't pan out I think it would be a fair criticism of Madden to say he should have gone with someone else.

But Gaucher was projected to go anywhere from 13th (yes, 13th) to 25th. Even if he doesn't pan out, a player that was projected to go 13-25, is picked at 22, and fails isn't really a pick worthy of critique.

 

[shach1]

Let me try to explain my perspective.

Every draft pick from 1 to 224 is a risk at some level, and it all comes down to the value of the pick vs. the risk-value of the player.

If Joe Schmoe is projected to go anywhere from 20th-40th, gets picked at 25th, and fails to pan out, that's not a bad pick - it's just statistics.

25OA is only a moderate-value pick, and his projection of going 20-40 is a moderate value player. If a GM had picked Schmoe at 10OA and he doesn't pan out, that's a bad pick - wasting a high value pick on a moderate value player.

Looking at our case:

Because of the value of the pick and the risk of the player, Sennecke has potential to be a bad pick. I happen to like taking a swing, but if he doesn't pan out I think it would be a fair criticism of Madden to say he should have gone with someone else.

But Gaucher was projected to go anywhere from 13th (yes, 13th) to 25th. Even if he doesn't pan out, a player that was projected to go 13-25, is picked at 22, and fails isn't really a pick worthy of critique.

It is if there were other players available who were higher upside guys. Yurov Kulich Snuggurud.

 

[tomd]

Let me try to explain my perspective.

Every draft pick from 1 to 224 is a risk at some level, and it all comes down to the value of the pick vs. the risk-value of the player.

If Joe Schmoe is projected to go anywhere from 20th-40th, gets picked at 25th, and fails to pan out, that's not a bad pick - it's just statistics.

25OA is only a moderate-value pick, and his projection of going 20-40 is a moderate value player. If a GM had picked Schmoe at 10OA and he doesn't pan out, that's a bad pick - wasting a high value pick on a moderate value player.

Looking at our case:

Because of the value of the pick and the risk of the player, Sennecke has potential to be a bad pick. I happen to like taking a swing, but if he doesn't pan out I think it would be a fair criticism of Madden to say he should have gone with someone else.

But Gaucher was projected to go anywhere from 13th (yes, 13th) to 25th. Even if he doesn't pan out, a player that was projected to go 13-25, is picked at 22, and fails isn't really a pick worthy of critique.

Just a cursory search proved that wrong (see the composite rankings in the article...most had him lower than 25). Wheeler had him out of the 1st round. And today there is not a single team saying "I wish we had drafted Nathan Gaucher or that he had fallen to us".

2022 NHL Draft prospect profile: Nathan Gaucher is universally seen as a safe bet to reach the NHL

Will a homegrown son be the choice for Montreal with either their second or third selection of the 2022 NHL Draft? If your wish is to draft a kid who will understand what it means to get picked in…

www.habseyesontheprize.com

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

It is if there were other players available who were higher upside guys. Yurov Kulich Snuggurud.

Yurov and Snuggerud would have been fine picks, too. Kulich more of a risk.

But that's exactly my point - there are multiple options to choose from that make sense and it's just about playing the odds.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

Just a cursory search proved that wrong (see the composite rankings in the article...most had him lower than 25). Wheeler had him out of the 1st round. And today there is not a single team saying "I wish we had drafted Nathan Gaucher or that he had fallen to us".

2022 NHL Draft prospect profile: Nathan Gaucher is universally seen as a safe bet to reach the NHL

Will a homegrown son be the choice for Montreal with either their second or third selection of the 2022 NHL Draft? If your wish is to draft a kid who will understand what it means to get picked in…

www.habseyesontheprize.com

Here are several mock drafts that have him going as high as 13 and as low as 26.

"I wish we had drafted XX or that he had fallen to us" has to be the most inane criteria I've ever heard. By that logic, any draft that isn't full of all-star players is a failure lol.

Anyway, I'll leave it at that. I've explained my logic. It's mine, you don't have to accept it.

 

[tomd]

Here are several mock drafts that have him going as high as 13 and as low as 26.

"I wish we had drafted XX or that he had fallen to us" has to be the most inane criteria I've ever heard. By that logic, any draft that isn't full of all-star players is a failure lol.

Anyway, I'll leave it at that. I've explained my logic. It's mine, you don't have to accept it.

Fair enough.

I'll leave it on an optimistic note by predicting that he'll probably get a goal by the beginning of the new year.

 

[MMC]

My problem with the discussion RE Gaucher being a wasted pick over some other guys (who haven't done much, if anything, in the NHL themselves) is the oversimplification of evaluating a prospect's "upside"

I don't know why people constantly talk about "upside" as if it's some sort of unanimously agreed upon trait about a prospect, and that the likelihood the player actually hits said "upside" isn't something that is taken into consideration. I'm not applying this to any particular player, but some people act as though if a front office sees a player as having top 6 upside but a 10% chance of actually hitting that due to other holes in their game, with the alternative being that they can't find a place in a NHL lineup, that that player should be taken 10/10 times over a player who maybe has the upside of a NHL bottom sixer, but who the front office views as having a 75% chance of becoming that player. That isn't how any front office drafts.

It's easy to criticize the philosophy behind making a pick when you're arguing for all of the players who came after them who turned out to be better players. But no one ever brings up the players that were viewed to have a similar upside and in contention for being taken at that spot who DIDN'T pan out, which ultimately makes the whole narrative incredibly dishonest.

All this is to say, a pick in the 20s and later not panning out should really just be viewed more as a natural and expected outcome of the drafting process rather than some indictment of the front office/scouts. Maybe a decade down the road you can look back at a front office's hit rate and draw some sort of conclusion about their overall drafting success but we're nowhere near the point where we can do that for PV

 

[Hockey Duckie]

But the issue is that Gaucher’s best case scenario was never more than a 3rd line center. That was on draft night.

I don’t have a problem with a Perreault who had upside but just didn’t pan out

I have a huge problem with guys that have low upside and don’t pan out

I don’t know why we’re not allowed to criticize Madden’s bad picks and praise the good ones. He doesn’t walk on water, though he is above average I’d say

I'm not sure if Madden is to criticize. We are under a different GM when we picked C Gaucher.

Recent late first/early 2nd round picks under Murray:

• 2019; Rd 1, 29th OA, LW Tracey and Rd 2, 39th OA, LD LaCombe
• 2020: Rd 1, 27th OA, RW Perreault and Rd2, 36th OA, Colangelo
• 2021: Rd 2, LD Zellweger

All five of those picks were swinging for the fences picks with high offense potential in mind. Tracey, Perreault, and Zellweger are all 6'0 or shorter skaters.
My thought for the 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft was 6'2, 194 lbs RD Scott Morrow. I thought Morrow b/c he's another offensive d-man from the same high school LaCombe came from, which was Shattuck St. Mary's. Murray went ultra offensive at an OFD and didn't care about height when he chose 5'9 Zellweger.

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Late first/early 2nd round picks under Verbeek:

• 2022: Rd 1, 22nd OA Gaucher and Rd 2, 42nd OA RD Warren
• 2023: Rd 2, 33 OA Myatovic
• 2024: Rd 1, 23rd OA LD Solberg and Rd 2, 35th OA C Pettersson

Verbeek had a height mandate in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Gaucher and Myatovic were tall, defensive centers with potential offense. Warren and Solberg are shutdown d-men. Pettersson is the odd pick at 5'11, 168 lbs, and an offensive-minded forward that reminded Madden of "Wild Bill" Karlsson. The 2024 draft was when Verbeek changed his drafting philosophy to draft smaller players and offensive players beyond the top-3 picks such as Pettersson and Blais.

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Anaheim is still hitting on defensemen and goalies between the two GM's, which should say that Madden has a heavy sway on those players. At forward, we're good between the two GM's if they're drafted in the top-10. Forwards drafted beyond the top-10 is there the drafting philosophy changes between the GM's.