There’s no way to say this without coming off as a dick but my advice would be to re-evaluate your expectations for a late first round pick.
A very small number of players will over perform and make you think that everyone else is hitting home runs in the late first round, but 90% of picks in that area are singles at best.
There hasn’t been a single high-performance player taken at 22OA since 2014, and that was Kapanen, who has never topped 44 points.
Draft pick number
playing 100 NHL games or more:
That's a steep decline from pick #1 to pick #31.
Draft pick number
playing 200 games or more:
The decline is even steeper when identifying 200 NHL games played between pick #1 to #31.
People cite how 1st round picks are valuable, but not realize the vast different in talent value between the top-3 picks, picks 4-10, picks 11-19, and picks 20+. There's less of a gamble with top-3 picks. The risk of missing out increases exponentially the further away you are from a top-3 pick until pick 40. Pick 40 is when the drop off changes from an exponential drop to a gradual drop.
Anaheim bucks the trend in defense and goalies.
- Current NHL roster has 4 drafted youths playing:
- LD Minty (Rd 1, 10th OA)
81 NHL games
- LD/RD Zell (Rd 2)
44 NHL games
- LD/RD LaCombe (Rd 2)
86 NHL games
- RD Helleson (Rd 2, traded pick)
7 NHL games
- Current NHL roster has both goalies drafted outside the first round:
- G Dostal (Rd 3)
80 NHL games
- G Gibby (Rd 2)
481 NHL games
Because the Ducks draft well at both defense and goal, they can afford to dedicate top-10 picks to forwards.
2019, 9th OA: C Zegras
2021, 3rd OA: C McTavish
2022, 5th OA: LW Cutter (trade for 2020 6th OA RD Drysdale)
2023, 2nd OA: C Carlsson
2024, 3rd OA: RW Senneck
With several finesse forwards draft in the top-10, Verbeek wanted more defensive-minded support players in 2022 C Gaucher and 2023 Rd2, 33rd OA LW Myatovic. Oddly, Verbeek's stance changed in 2024 with shorter, offensive-minded C Pettersson.
