Lundestrom isn't great at faceoffs, but I don't get acting like he's critically terrible at them, especially compared to the rest of the team. And he does seem to have improved this season.
| Total FO% | 5v5 FO% |
| Harkins | 54.14% | 49.11% |
| McTavish | 49.73% | 49.55% |
| Lundestrom | 47.37% | 51.26% |
| Strome | 41.74% | 39.31% |
| Carlsson | 39.41% | 40.54% |
| Zegras | 37.66% | 38.10% |
(I included 5v5 because I found it interesting that Lundy's is actually the best on the team, though also because it's even more interesting that Harkins is apparently dramatically better at PK faceoffs than 5v5 ones? Maybe he should be the top PK guy, actually.)
But in any case, if you're not keeping Lundestrom I don't think the faceoffs are why. His GA/60 and xGA/60 are some of the best on the team despite some of the worst deployment, and he's demonstrated he can be a good checking center for wingers that have some clue what the goal is (McGinn/Gauthier-Lundestrom-Leason almost always looked solid, and they were used as a matchup line often). His defense would probably be even better on a team that doesn't have, you know, a bottom two defensive system in the league.
He has seen enough top six time this season that there's really no reason to try that anymore, but he's a good bottom sixer. I'd keep him and at least make Gaucher force him out. That or trade him before it becomes an issue, there's definitely going to be a team out there that sees his skating and defense and goes "we can fix him!" about his offense. You're not going to get much, but I think you can get
something versus letting him walk for nothing.
Speaking of how much we want fourth line Ls, all the writing off of Leason seems premature. He was looking like a great bottom six piece (even after the offensive hot streak cooled down) until Cronin decided "let's ask him to be Zegras for a few weeks" was a good idea. That seemed to pretty much wreck his mental game (which might be a him problem, but on the other hand, the signs don't point to him getting appropriate coaching through that situation) but he seems like he
might be starting to recover and pick it up again. Too early to make that decision given the circumstances, IMO.
If he gets back to form by the end of the season, keep him, not even a question. If he doesn't, I think it depends who you intend to replace him with (Colangelo should be a Fabbri replacement, not a fourth liner. Does the org think Nesterenko is a fourth liner? I'm not sure what to make of him from his limited looks with the Ducks). If it's the end of the season and he still hasn't gotten his game back together, sure, let him walk if there's a better option on the table. I just don't think you give up on the upside he's actually demonstrated without having a realistic upgrade ready—basically, if we let him go we'd
better not ever see Johnston on the ice next season.
(If it's one or the other, I'd keep Leason. Lundy at his best is a solid and reliable role player, Leason at his best can actually break a game, apparently. I don't think "but at his worst he's scratched for Johnston" is an argument against him, maybe if he ever actually
looked worse than Johnston rather than being scratched by a coach who thinks the hit stat is a proxy for whether you're skating.)
