Rasp
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- Apr 9, 2019
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Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread
- Thread starter Leonardo87
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Zellweger is our new Visnovsky, although I don't think he'll quite reach the heights that Lubo did.
But 10-15 goals, 50-60 points is well within his ceiling.
But 10-15 goals, 50-60 points is well within his ceiling.
All Mighty
Registered User
I wrote about a couple of the biggest issues I see with how the Ducks are currently built. I'll do a short version of each of those pieces in here.
First is Anaheim's poor faceoff ability (Faceoffs and Special Teams). We weren't a good faceoff team last season, and that was with Henrique and Carrick on the team for most of the season. Here are the faceoff numbers from last season for our current centers:
Second is the imbalance of righties and lefties on the blue line (The Impact of Handedness on Defensemen). I built a dataset on all of the Ducks' pairs that played at least 50 minutes of even strength together last season. The lefty-righty pairs in that dataset actually outscored opponents 90 to 85 in 2,249 minutes (they had an expected goal share of 49.5%). The lefty-lefty pairs, on the other hand, were outscored 57 to 21 in 1,112 minutes (42.4% expected goal share).
And before anyone says anything, yes, the majority of the lefty-lefty minutes were with Cam Fowler on the ice, meaning the lefty-lefty pairs faced difficult competition (this is something I blame on Cronin). With how the team was built last season, it seemed like they just tried to avoid pairing two rookies together as much as they could. Hopefully they build more trust with the team so there can be more flexibility with the pairings next season.
The fact of the matter is that we still really only have 1 reliable righty on the team (Gudas). I'm not sold on Luneau being ready for the NHL yet, but if he is, that would be a big help. Although, if he does make the NHL team, that would likely push LaCombe (or Dumoulin) out of the lineup (assuming Zellweger is a lock). I am hoping a Fowler-Gudas pair can take the difficult minutes next season (they controlled 60% of expected goals in 47 minutes together last season) to free up the other pairs because I'm not sure I like the idea of Zellweger, Mintyukov, LaCombe, or Luneau playing those kind of minutes yet.
There is still time to address these issues, but the options are definitely limited.
First is Anaheim's poor faceoff ability (Faceoffs and Special Teams). We weren't a good faceoff team last season, and that was with Henrique and Carrick on the team for most of the season. Here are the faceoff numbers from last season for our current centers:
- Mason McTavish – 51.7%
- Ryan Strome – 46.2%
- Isac Lundestrom – 44%
- Trevor Zegras – 38.1%
- Leo Carlsson – 34.8%
Second is the imbalance of righties and lefties on the blue line (The Impact of Handedness on Defensemen). I built a dataset on all of the Ducks' pairs that played at least 50 minutes of even strength together last season. The lefty-righty pairs in that dataset actually outscored opponents 90 to 85 in 2,249 minutes (they had an expected goal share of 49.5%). The lefty-lefty pairs, on the other hand, were outscored 57 to 21 in 1,112 minutes (42.4% expected goal share).
And before anyone says anything, yes, the majority of the lefty-lefty minutes were with Cam Fowler on the ice, meaning the lefty-lefty pairs faced difficult competition (this is something I blame on Cronin). With how the team was built last season, it seemed like they just tried to avoid pairing two rookies together as much as they could. Hopefully they build more trust with the team so there can be more flexibility with the pairings next season.
The fact of the matter is that we still really only have 1 reliable righty on the team (Gudas). I'm not sold on Luneau being ready for the NHL yet, but if he is, that would be a big help. Although, if he does make the NHL team, that would likely push LaCombe (or Dumoulin) out of the lineup (assuming Zellweger is a lock). I am hoping a Fowler-Gudas pair can take the difficult minutes next season (they controlled 60% of expected goals in 47 minutes together last season) to free up the other pairs because I'm not sure I like the idea of Zellweger, Mintyukov, LaCombe, or Luneau playing those kind of minutes yet.
There is still time to address these issues, but the options are definitely limited.
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Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Faceoffs
Anaheim did add a player who can win faceoffs, but it was done at a lower level.
| Cutter | FO% | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | GP | FOW | FOL | FO Total | FO% |
| 2022-23 | NCAA | 32 | 209 | 229 | 438 | 47.7% |
| 2023-24 | NCAA | 41 | 365 | 375 | 740 | 49.3% |
At Dev camp, Cutter was taking some instructions about FO's with Getzy.
There is a possibility that Cutter can attempt to be like Rico as a LW who takes faceoffs. The PP1 unit could have two options with Mac and Cutter on it. The problem lies on our PK unit. Not only did we lose two of our best FO winners in Rico and Carrick, but we lose two of our best PK'ers in Rico and Carrick. If Lundy doesn't improve his FO%, then our PK unit might continue to suffer.
Defense and handedness
There appears to be lots of context missing here. For starters, Drysdale was the team's top pairing RD, but his injury created a void at RD1 and we eventually traded him away. While Gudas is our best RD, his body isn't capable to handle top pairing minutes. This was proven later into the season when Gudas was thrusted into the 20 minutes + range. If the team were to sacrifice a RD to play on the top line, then it could have went with Lyubushkin. In both situations, Anaheim would have had a rookie (Minty, LaCombe)-youth (Vaak) pairing. That curtailed us into another reason, the pairing a vet with a rookie to start the season. I cannot blame Cronin on how the pairs were constructed because Cronin is not in charge of the roster.
At pre-season, GM Verbeek wanted three rookie defenders to start the season in LaCombe, Minty, and Luneau. Luneau was a side project that Verbeek kept to build his body faster as a 19-year old, but since he was a CHL product, Verbeek could not do this side project at the AHL level. That prevented at least one veteran in Hagg or White from staying with the NHL club. Clearly, this past season was a development year for the Ducks' blue line. Which returns us to pairing a rookie with a vet on each line to start the season.
As for the breakdown of the handedness chart provided, it doesn't do a great job of showing players playing on their off-side. For example, LaCombe played 73 NHL games, but he did not play all 73 games at LD. Similarly with Zellweger, who played his last 22 NHL games on the right side, next to Fowler. At the AHL level, Zellweger and Hinds have played the RD as well.
Eventually, the team had to put two rookies together after the TDL.
| Mintyukov | Splits | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | G | A | Pts | +/- | Hits | Blocks | Pair | |
| 1 to 63 | 63 | 4 | 24 | 28 | -20 | 85 | 65 | . | |
| 1 to 20 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 30 | 24 | Lybush 3rd pair | |
| 21 to 40 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 26 | 19 | Lyubush, 2nd P, injury | |
| 41 to 47 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 10 | 2 | Lyubush | |
| 48 to 55 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 6 | 13 | Gudas, top pair | |
| 56 to 62 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 7 | LaCombe | |
| 63 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | Lindstrom |
Although it was a small sample, the Minty-LaCombe rookie pairing held up. Maybe being roommates helped with the on-ice chemistry.
Overall, last year's development would be considered a success as they were able to reduce the GA by allowing 53 fewer goals against compared to the previous season. That isn't terrible considering Anaheim displayed four rookie defensemen last year in Minty, LaCombe, Luneau, and Zellweger; with LaCombe and Zell playing a majority of their games playing RD.
Rasp
Registered User
- Apr 9, 2019
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- 1,877
It appears Terry is expecting another child. Hope this doesn't hurt his form again.
No troy no! No! Nooooooo
Congrats, I suppose, too.
Congrats, I suppose, too.
Shoot this man to the sun if he sucks this year again. People are having kids all the time, doesn't give them permission to suck ass at work.
Second kid is a piece of cake, right? Right?
The team needs to take a vow of abstinence until we win the cup.
JonathnTaylorTavares
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- Feb 4, 2019
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Sucking at your job also doesn’t deserve being murdered by solar flares
Dirk316
Registered User
Deuce22
Registered User
I didn’t say any forward was more physical, I said Johnston wasn’t. If your definition of physical is he fights, that’s a different conversation.
You may be right, I'll reflect on this.
Dirk316
Registered User
He is physical he looks to throw hits (yes he's slow but skates well for a heavyweight) goes to the net and battles and fights. Fits all the criteria for a physical forward. Because he's an enforcer of course you will go out of your way to discredit him.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I kinda expected more physicality and fighting from Johnston. I get he gets credits for a lot of hits, but his hits pales when comparing to the way Max Jones hits. Johnston's size is the intimidating factor, but that's really more bark than bite. Maybe I'm spoiled with Des as our enforcer and that's the standard I have for future enforcers.
Dirk316
Registered User
Des was an elite enforcer those do not come around often. Johnston also gets watched extra by the refs anything borderline will get called up for someone like Jones
Deuce22
Registered User
False assumption. I'm not anti-enforcer. But I do want our enforcer to be decent at hockey between fights. Johnston isn't.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
I discredit him because he’s an enforcer that doesn’t fight, and because he routinely passes up golden opportunity to land punishing hits. He essentially just hugs people at this point. His hits/games and hits/60 are nothing impressive league wide for a physical player either - Keifer Sherwood of all people is considerably more productive in both categories.
No, Sherwood doesn’t punch/punish people. But the point is - neither does Johnston.
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Firequacker
used wall of text! It's not very effective...
- Jun 3, 2022
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Johnston let his team get bullied by the Toronto Maple Leafs, of all things, but he takes an inconsequential fight for show every once in awhile so we are expected to pretend he's a good enforcer? Nah.
He's better than nothing as an enforcer, in the sense that opponents generally (and I stress, only generally) won't act up when he's standing right next to them. But that's the bare minimum for the role. Nobody's afraid of him coming after them after the fact, because he doesn't. Nobody's afraid of him lighting them up with a highlight reel hit, because he rarely does. Certainly nobody's afraid he's going to actually play effective hockey.
And it's not like opposing teams are afraid of his physicality in any way that impedes their ability to play hockey. He had the third-lowest 5v5 GF% of any forward on the team*. (The two lower? Johnston's most common linemate Sam Carrick, and third most common linemate Bo Groulx.) If you prefer xGF%, his was the worst outright. Opposing players aren't worrying about him in any meaningful way except in the after-whistle scrums, because why would they?
Gudas, by the way, was top five in both categories, while providing all the elements of toughness that Johnston regularly doesn't. And oddly enough, the people who supposedly hate toughness and want a soft weak team spend very little time complaining about Gudas.
*This is only counting guys who were regular roster players, for what I'd hope would be obvious reasons. Though if cup of coffee players are deemed relevant, Glenn Gawdin's over 31 hits/60 will suddenly get very funny.
He's better than nothing as an enforcer, in the sense that opponents generally (and I stress, only generally) won't act up when he's standing right next to them. But that's the bare minimum for the role. Nobody's afraid of him coming after them after the fact, because he doesn't. Nobody's afraid of him lighting them up with a highlight reel hit, because he rarely does. Certainly nobody's afraid he's going to actually play effective hockey.
And it's not like opposing teams are afraid of his physicality in any way that impedes their ability to play hockey. He had the third-lowest 5v5 GF% of any forward on the team*. (The two lower? Johnston's most common linemate Sam Carrick, and third most common linemate Bo Groulx.) If you prefer xGF%, his was the worst outright. Opposing players aren't worrying about him in any meaningful way except in the after-whistle scrums, because why would they?
Gudas, by the way, was top five in both categories, while providing all the elements of toughness that Johnston regularly doesn't. And oddly enough, the people who supposedly hate toughness and want a soft weak team spend very little time complaining about Gudas.
*This is only counting guys who were regular roster players, for what I'd hope would be obvious reasons. Though if cup of coffee players are deemed relevant, Glenn Gawdin's over 31 hits/60 will suddenly get very funny.
McDonald19
Registered User
Well, say what you want about Ross, but Cronin and Verbeek like him. Career high 68 games in 23-24.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Not sure that reflects on Johnson so much as it does on the other two.
Not untill he lears how to clap those slap shots.. God I miss Vis
Also reflects the other forwards Ross was competing against for those spots. It was a pretty Bo bar.
- Jul 25, 2012
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Hes not very physical at all... i mean i guess in comparison to Troy Terry hed be considered physical... but so would my great grandma.
He fights... thats about the only positive thing in his game.... and even then he didnt do it when we needed it, or when we needed to send a msg... that was carrick/strome most of the time. Hes a god awful hockey player.
Carrick and Strome bring things to the table other than "fighting"
- Jul 25, 2012
- 41,662
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agreed 100%
Des wasnt a great player.... but he was much better decision making when it came to fighting and when to fight.
He also seemed like he wanted to be more than just an enforcer, we saw him killing penalties, showed a little more offensive abilities...
johnston seems content being a huge sack of nothing.
Trade him for necas... screw it
All Mighty
Registered User
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