If they had average, not great, just league average, they'd have made the POs last year and they'd be in the POs this season.
So far, in 44 games, they have given up 29 more goals than xGA.
With league average goaltending, they'd probably have 48-50 points, close to a tie with TB and ahead of Ottawa.
It doesn't make them a SC contender, you still want to get to a 105 point level from 90-95.
But it would better reflect the actual talent on this roster.
Now from a rebuilding vantage point, that isn't a bad thing, #12 last year and probably #10-12 this season unless Ersson goes on a goalie "heater."