2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar

[deadhead]

Name all the first D-pairs that are playing better than York -Sanheim?
It's a handful by any objective measure.
Florida won last year without a true "#1" D-man unless you want to call Forsling one, in that case, doesn't Sanheim qualify?

There's an obsession with magic players around here, unless you're gonna land the next McDavid or Makar, the difference between the 10th best scorer and 20th best scorer is not a chasm.

 

[deadhead]

Even if Laughton is only worth a 2nd, you make the trade. This team needs a 1C, and possibly a 2C as well. They also need a top pair Dman and could use another top 4 guy. Plus they need at least one goalie, maybe 2 as none of the current ones have proven to be reliable over any length of time as of yet.

They won’t be contending next season or in 26-27. Best case is 27-28 and Scott Laughton won’t (hopefully) be here by then. His value probably isn’t going to increase now that he’s on the wrong side of 30, so trade him already.

Now Deady and a few others don’t think that 2nd round picks matter much, and that mid and late round picks matter less. But, the more picks that you make, the better your chance of getting lucky and hitting on one of those picks. It’s why smart teams don’t extend plugs like Hathaway & Seeler. You can find another plug to replace them on a 1 year deal for peanuts, those guys are available every summer.

No. 2nd rd picks matter, though more the top half of the round (up to 50 or so), 3rd rd picks have some value, but far less. After that, you're just buying lottery tickets.

When Briere starts by asking for a 1st, that's a negotiating position.
He asked for a 1st for Walker, and ended up taking on a bad contract and throwing in a 5th rd pick to get that first.

Teams do extend plugs like Seeler and Hathaway, or worse, sign FAs who are their equivalent. I've shown the rosters of all the rebuilding teams and they're full of 30+ year old veterans. Just look at Anaheim after 6 years of drafting high. Better to extend players you know are good fits than sign FAs off the street.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Name all the first D-pairs that are playing better than York -Sanheim?
It's a handful by any objective measure.
Florida won last year without a true "#1" D-man unless you want to call Forsling one, in that case, doesn't Sanheim qualify?

There's an obsession with magic players around here, unless you're gonna land the next McDavid or Makar, the difference between the 10th best scorer and 20th best scorer is not a chasm.

There’s a diminishing of the value star player bring because you know they have a rats ass chance of finding one.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Can you tell me the timelines of when it was reported that they wanted Heiskanen and when it was reported that they wanted Makar?

It was reported that the scouts were split on Heiskanen and Makar, but had them both ranked ahead of Patrick. They wanted one of the two defensemen.

Some reports say Heiskanen was their final recommendation, though Bob Clarke, who was at the draft table, named Makar. One source said Clarke was right that the scouts didn't want Patrick, but said it was Heiskanen not Makar that the scouts ultimately voted to select.

I've posted the articles before. I've posted the Bob Clarke interview, where this comes up as a tangent (it wasn't the purpose of the interview whatsoever). I'm not doing it again. You can find them, or you can use the search function on this site.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It was reported that the scouts were split on Heiskanen and Makar, but had them both ranked ahead of Patrick. They wanted one of the two defensemen.

Some reports say Heiskanen was their final recommendation, though Bob Clarke, who was at the draft table, named Makar. One source said Clarke was right that the scouts didn't want Patrick, but said it was Heiskanen not Makar that the scouts ultimately voted to select.

I've posted the articles before. I've posted the Bob Clarke interview, where this comes up as a tangent (it wasn't the purpose of the interview whatsoever). I'm not doing it again. You can find them, or you can use the search function on this site.

That's not what I asked. Please tell me when these reports came out.

When was it stated that they wanted Heiskanen and when was it stated that they wanted Makar?

 

[MJL66]

Name all the first D-pairs that are playing better than York -Sanheim?
It's a handful by any objective measure.
Florida won last year without a true "#1" D-man unless you want to call Forsling one, in that case, doesn't Sanheim qualify?

There's an obsession with magic players around here, unless you're gonna land the next McDavid or Makar, the difference between the 10th best scorer and 20th best scorer is not a chasm.

You're not a serious person are you? There are many first D pairs that are better than York and Sanheim, They're not a legitimate top defense pairing.
Let's look at a basic metric. Last season, at 5 on 5, Ekblad had a GF% of 68%, Forsling 66.99%, Larsson 55.06%, Montour 52.33%
This season, Sanheim 48.15% and York 47.92%. Admirable but not great. I know, you'll come back with goaltending

There is no obsession with magical players. There is a real world understanding using common sense that you need high level elite talent to win the Stanley Cup. The difference between the 20th best scorer and the top scorer is a chasm and is the difference between Travis Konecny and Nathan McKinnon

No. 2nd rd picks matter, though more the top half of the round (up to 50 or so), 3rd rd picks have some value, but far less. After that, you're just buying lottery tickets.

When Briere starts by asking for a 1st, that's a negotiating position.
He asked for a 1st for Walker, and ended up taking on a bad contract and throwing in a 5th rd pick to get that first.

Teams do extend plugs like Seeler and Hathaway, or worse, sign FAs who are their equivalent. I've shown the rosters of all the rebuilding teams and they're full of 30+ year old veterans. Just look at Anaheim after 6 years of drafting high. Better to extend players you know are good fits than sign FAs off the street.

No, it's better to trade players and get a future assets than overpay to re-sign a player. Versus just overpaying with no future assets. Again, you're not understanding why some teams have more 30+ aged players versus others. Smart teams do not re-sign a player like Nick Seeler to a 4 year deals with trade protection.

 

[MJL66]

That's not what I asked. Please tell me when these reports came out.

When was it stated that they wanted Heiskanen and when was it stated that they wanted Makar?

Bill Meltzer, who is an extremely reliable source has talked about this a lot. There was no consensus among the scouts. Some wanted Heiskanen, some wanted Makar but the scouts overall preferred a defenseman over Patrick.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Bill Meltzer, who is an extremely reliable source has talked about this a lot. There was no consensus among the scouts. Some wanted Heiskanen, some wanted Makar but the scouts overall preferred a defenseman over Patrick.

Again, I know EXACTLY what was said. I want to know WHEN these things were reported.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That's not what I asked. Please tell me when these reports came out.

When was it stated that they wanted Heiskanen and when was it stated that they wanted Makar?

Already have multiple times. I'm not doing the research for you yet again. I'm not your circus monkey. Use the search function. You're a board expert. You can do it.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Already have multiple times. I'm not doing the research for you yet again. I'm not your circus monkey. Use the search function. You're a board expert. You can do it.

Yeah, I wouldn't want to post the answer to my question either. Might make you look foolish.

 

[MJL66]

Again, I know EXACTLY what was said. I want to know WHEN these things were reported.

I'm not sure why when they came out matters. Maybe if you clarify why it does, I will think differently

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flyers now tied for 1st in GF/60 (5x5) since 11/25.
Sh% is 10.8% over that period. That's 7th in the NHL.
The median is 9.42%
Flyers are 6th in HDCF/60 over that stretch.
7th in HDCF Sh%.

So no, while they're shooting above league average, it's mostly a product of creating high danger scoring chances. There might be a slight regression to the mean, but their jump in scoring is a matter of creating good scoring chances, not puck luck.

They were 5th from last last season. Skyrocketing to 7th while taking worse quality shots per their setups is something you consider sustainable?

Every season they go on a shooting heater for a month or two and you proclaim the coming of the Lord, and then it all falls back to earth.

If the team is so good, how come they can only beat bad teams? Why don't the results bear out the stats?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I'm not sure why when they came out matters. Maybe if you clarify why it does, I will think differently

The Heiskanen talk came when the Stars were in the SCF in 2020 and then it turned to Makar the next year or so when Makar and the Avs started to take off.

Not a peep came before that.

Keep in mind this is also after a season where Patrick didn’t play and a “new” regime came to power.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Bill Meltzer, who is an extremely reliable source has talked about this a lot. There was no consensus among the scouts. Some wanted Heiskanen, some wanted Makar but the scouts overall preferred a defenseman over Patrick.

Thank you. Some posters here refuse to accept this even though I've posted links numerous times.

Both Meltzer and San Filippo have reported on it.

That was before the more recent Bob Clarke interview.

And an unnamed league source, after the Bob Clarke interview where he said Makar, said Clarke was right except that Heiskanen was the recommendation.

Either way, it's been very well reported that the scouts didn't want Patrick and wanted one of the defensemen.

Far more diversely reported than some vague rumor that the Flyers turned down a 1st + for Laughton at the deadline. With a much stronger report less than a year later that there's a lot of interest in Laughton, but the Flyers have set the price at a 1st rd pick and teams think it's purposely too steep because they aren't interested in moving him.

There's been nothing like that refuting the reports of the Flyers scouts ranking both defensemen ahead of Patrick and Hextall overruling them.

 

[MJL66]

The Heiskanen talk came when the Stars were in the SCF in 2020 and then it turned to Makar the next year or so when Makar and the Avs started to take off.

Not a peep came before that.

Keep in mind this is also after a season where Patrick didn’t play and a “new” regime came to power.

Why does that matter? Does is it change the reported facts on what the scouts wanted. I'm not following your point.

 

[ybnvs]

"The scouts" in the league ranked Buium over Luchanko.

So should Briere have listened to "the scouts"?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Why does that matter? Does is it change the reported facts on what the scouts wanted. I'm not following your point.

Flyers propaganda machine in action. Latching onto the shiniest thing at the time and pretending we would have had that, if not for the dirty villain Hextall, whose hockey decisions were so horrible that they've stood by just about every one of them

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Why does that matter? Does is it change the reported facts on what the scouts wanted. I'm not following your point.

He doesn't want to believe it, so he's trying to make it a conspiracy.

"The scouts" in the league ranked Buium over Luchanko.

So should Briere have listened to "the scouts"?

I have no idea whom the Flyers' scouts recommended. Has their been any reporting that the Flyers' scouts recommended Buium and were overruled by Briere?

I also have no idea if there were other reasons they passed on Buium, like signability concerns.

PROTIP: Different teams' scouts have different opinions and rankings,

 

[MJL66]

Flyers propaganda machine in action. Latching onto the shiniest thing at the time and pretending we would have had that, if not for the dirty villain Hextall, whose hockey decisions were so horrible that they've stood by just about every one of them

I implicitly trust Bill Meltzer as a reliable source. I think the only source that was propaganda on that was Clarke, whose sole purpose in that interview was to protect Fletcher and villianize Hextall. As far as Hextall choosing Patrick. A GM's job is not to just blindly listen to the scouts. The GM's job is to listen to the advice of his advisors and make a decision. At the time, I had no problem with the selection of Patrick. Like most that I'm aware of, I thought the Flyers just drafted a future 1C. We can all use hindsight but I have no issue with how or why the decision was made at the time.

 

[deadhead]

You're not a serious person are you? There are many first D pairs that are better than York and Sanheim, They're not a legitimate top defense pairing.
Let's look at a basic metric. Last season, at 5 on 5, Ekblad had a GF% of 68%, Forsling 66.99%, Larsson 55.06%, Montour 52.33%
This season, Sanheim 48.15% and York 47.92%. Admirable but not great. I know, you'll come back with goaltending

There is no obsession with magical players. There is a real world understanding using common sense that you need high level elite talent to win the Stanley Cup. The difference between the 20th best scorer and the top scorer is a chasm and is the difference between Travis Konecny and Nathan McKinnon


No, it's better to trade players and get a future assets than overpay to re-sign a player. Versus just overpaying with no future assets. Again, you're not understanding why some teams have more 30+ aged players versus others. Smart teams do not re-sign a player like Nick Seeler to a 4 year deals with trade protection.

GF is +/-. As anyone who knows metrics will tell you, it's meaningless b/c it's as much the goaltender and puck luck as anything else.

Last season, only 24 pairs played 800 (5x5) minutes together, only 19 played 12+ minutes a night.
Of that group of 12+ a night, York - Sanheim were 13th in xGF% at 49.66%

The top pairs by xGF%: Ekholm/Bouchard, Burns/Slavin, Gavrikov/Roy, Sanderson/Zub, Hronek/Hughes, Doughty/Anderson, Toews/Makar, Skjei/Pesce, Montour/Mikkola, Ceci/Nurse, DeMelo/Morrisey, Oleksiak/Borgen, Sanheim/York, Trouba/Miller, Larsen/Dunn, Fox/Lindgren, Jones/Vlasic, Leddy/Parayko.

This season so far, 22 pairs have played 400 minutes and 12+ minutes a night.
Ekholm/Bouchard, Siegenthaler/Kovacevic, Ghost/Walker, Gavikov/Anderson, Orlov/Chatfield, Pesce/Hughes, Burns/Slavin, Dillon/Hamilton, Toews/Makar, Sanheim/York, Ekblad/Forsling, Jensen/Chabot, Pietrangelo/Hanifin, Middleton/Faber, DeMelo/Morrisey, Werenski/Fabbro, McDonagh/Cernak, McNabb/Theodore, Anderson/Bahl, Oleksiak/Montour, Weegar/Miromanov, Ceci/Walman

Ghost/Walker are the 3rd pair on CAR and are sheltered.

xGF for top D-pairs is strongly influenced by the quality of forwards since they play with most lines fairly evenly distributed at ES. Either Montour suddenly became much worse or he's playing with forwards that aren't as good as last season.

What stands out is how teams "spread the wealth," often the top two pairs split the best two D-men, either because of preferred side (RH/LH) or because they want two solid pairs over one really good pair.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I audibly laughed at Ghost/Walker being thrown out.

Especially with my graphic up this page.

 

[MJL66]

GF is +/-. As anyone who knows metrics will tell you, it's meaningless b/c it's as much the goaltender and puck luck as anything else.

Last season, only 24 pairs played 800 (5x5) minutes together, only 19 played 12+ minutes a night.
Of that group of 12+ a night, York - Sanheim were 13th in xGF% at 49.66%

The top pairs by xGF%: Ekholm/Bouchard, Burns/Slavin, Gavrikov/Roy, Sanderson/Zub, Hronek/Hughes, Doughty/Anderson, Toews/Makar, Skjei/Pesce, Montour/Mikkola, Ceci/Nurse, DeMelo/Morrisey, Oleksiak/Borgen, Sanheim/York, Trouba/Miller, Larsen/Dunn, Fox/Lindgren, Jones/Vlasic, Leddy/Parayko.

This season so far, 22 pairs have played 400 minutes and 12+ minutes a night.
Ekholm/Bouchard, Siegenthaler/Kovacevic, Ghost/Walker, Gavikov/Anderson, Orlov/Chatfield, Pesce/Hughes, Burns/Slavin, Dillon/Hamilton, Toews/Makar, Sanheim/York, Ekblad/Forsling, Jensen/Chabot, Pietrangelo/Hanifin, Middleton/Faber, DeMelo/Morrisey, Werenski/Fabbro, McDonagh/Cernak, McNabb/Theodore, Anderson/Bahl, Oleksiak/Montour, Weegar/Miromanov, Ceci/Walman

Ghost/Walker are the 3rd pair on CAR and are sheltered.

xGF for top D-pairs is strongly influenced by the quality of forwards since they play with most lines fairly evenly distributed at ES. Either Montour suddenly became much worse or he's playing with forwards that aren't as good as last season.

What stands out is how teams "spread the wealth," often the top two pairs split the best two D-men, either because of preferred side (RH/LH) or because they want two solid pairs over one really good pair.

Goals for is not +/-. It's a relative stat. xGF% is a valuable metric but you take it to far. Watching the games, it's clear that Sanheim and York though solid, are not a legitimate top defense pairing. They can play top pair but you're just going to have a mediocre team if you do so. You're never going to be a legit cup contender with that as your top pair and I like both players.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Here's another one, albeit with no corroboration that I know of:

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Carchidi from May 2021. In the article he addresses that the scouts wanted either Heiskanen or Makar over Patrick. If you can't read the article, google Hextall Heiskanen Makar Patrick, and the Google summary will reveal that part: Is Nolan Patrick seeking a trade to leave the Flyers? Promising center won’t say.

And here's a post of mine replying to Hollywood's same exact question a couple of years ago:

• Apr 15, 2023
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• #698

I once again will ask to please tell us WHEN the first report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Heiskanen came out.

I will then once again ask to please tell us WHEN the second report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Makar came out (aka the Clarke interview).

If you find those answers and use a little bit of critical thinking and look at the past 30 years of how this team has operated you MAY start to believe that something is off if you have an open mind.

I've posted about the "when" a ton of times.

San Filippo article, Jan. 4, 2021: Nolan Patrick Officially Back with the Flyers, but He Doesn't Really Want to Talk About It

"There’s a reason he was picked No. 2 overall in the 2017 NHL entry draft, even if the consensus in the Flyers draft room was to go with a defenseman like Miro Heiskanen or Cale Makar. Then-GM Ron Hextall went against the grain and took the big center who came into the previous season as the consensus No. 1 prospect available in the draft."

And ASF had mentioned it on Snow the Goalie prior to that.

Meltzer wrote about it in July 2021: HockeyBuzz.com - Forums - Bill Meltzer: Free Agency Day 1: Flyers recap and analysis

"In hindsight, was Hexy wrong to overrule his scouts? Probably. While there was no specific consensus between Patrick, Heiskanen and Makar, apparently enough scouts to form a consensus would have advocated for either of the latter two (apparently with Heiskanen being the preference because Makar was a Junior-A player, which entailed more of a leap of faith). Ron felt differently, strongly wanting the big righthanded center who'd been the virtual unanimous No. 1 candidate leaguewide heading into 2016-17."

The Clarke interview was in January 2022.