Blue Jays find their closer in Hoffman
The deal: Three years, $33 million
Grade: A-
Hoffman was one of my favorite free agents this offseason: a high-leverage reliever who has been one of the top bullpen arms in the majors over the past two seasons with the Phillies, posting a 2.28 ERA while averaging 12 K's per nine and allowing a .180 batting average and .544 OPS. While some teams reportedly had interest in Hoffman as a starter, the Blue Jays have already indicated Hoffman will be their closer (or at least get first crack at the job, but he's the clear front-runner considering their other options).
Which makes sense. With
Jordan Romanounable to stay healthy last season and other relievers regressing from their 2023 seasons, the Toronto bullpen was awful: 29th in the majors in ERA and 28th in win probability added. Hoffman projects as a significant upgrade over their revolving door of ninth-inning options of last season (Romano has signed with the Phillies, so he and Hoffman have effectively changed places).
Getting a closer at $11 million per season also seems like a relative bargain -- especially compared with the contracts for some other elite closers in recent years:
Edwin Diaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract with the Mets;
Josh Hader went to the Astros on a five-year, $95 million deal. Those two haven't outpitched Hoffman over the past two seasons. Lesser relievers such as
Aroldis Chapman ($10.75 million) and
Andrew Kittredge ($10 million) have signed one-year deals this offseason at nearly the same level as Hoffman's average salary. Even Romano, coming off injuries that limited him to just 13 innings, signed for $8.5 million.
No, Hoffman doesn't have the Capital C Closer pedigree, although he did pick up 10 saves with the Phillies last season, but that's why he'll cost $33 million instead of $100 million. It's quite the turnaround for a guy the Reds let go after the 2022 season and Twins released in spring training of 2023. Hoffman's stuff has ticked up with the Phillies, however, as he has added a little more velocity on his four-seamer and more spin on his slider. His biggest change, however, has been in pitch usage: With the Reds in 2021-22, when he had a 4.28 ERA, he threw his four-seamer over 50% of the time. With the Phillies, it was 34% in 2023 and 39% in 2024. Add in his splitter and occasional two-seamer and he has a nice four-pitch repertoire (thus the idea of trying him as a starter).
Hoffman did have Tommy John surgery his draft year coming out of East Carolina and never managed to click as a starter with the Rockies, but that also means he has relatively little wear and tear on his arm. He just turned 32, so I believe his success will continue over the next three seasons. This could end up as one of the best signings of the offseason.
-- Schoenfield
