Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
They scored 2 goals. In this game, the game before, and the game before. These aren't goalie losses. It isn't the DPE or the Mini DPE of the early '10s. Scoring only two doesn't cut it.
2024-25 Roster Thread #2: Midseasonnar
- Thread starter Beef Invictus
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They scored 2 goals. In this game, the game before, and the game before. These aren't goalie losses. It isn't the DPE or the Mini DPE of the early '10s. Scoring only two doesn't cut it.
Flyerfan4life
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VladDrag
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Half way thru the season, time for a review. I'm going to use some figures from Hockeyviz to explain some of the points.
TL/DR -- Thru half the season, team is better defensively but worse offensively compared to last season.
Figure 1 - Comparison of 24-25 offense vs 23-24 offense. Last year, the team was a bit better in terms of offensive production vs the rest of the league. However, this year they've (to date) taken a step back. Now, that -2% was as low as -5% around game ~20, so there's some improvement over the last 20 games. We'll see if they can keep that up.
Figure 2 - Comparison of 24-25 Defense vs 23-24 Defense. Las season, they were a good defensive team, but this year they've gotten better defensively.
Figure 3 - Comparison of sG values for forwards from 23-24 to 24-25. It might be hard to see, and I'm sorry if that's the case. If you compare the locations of each player from 23-24 to 24-25, almost every player moved up and to the left (towards the upper left quadrant). What that means is that each forward is getting better defensively (upward movement) and worse offensively (to the left).
@JojoTheWhale and I have stated this multiple times. Typically, when a player gets better at offense, they typically get worse at defense AND VISE VERSA. In the case of the 24-25 Flyers, you're collectively seeing an entire forward group get better defensively but get worse offensively. If you saw my post in the projection thread, you'll see many of the secondary scorers are either stagnating or decreasing in overall point production.
Most of the forwards on this team (sans TK and likely Michkov) are secondary scoring/middle 6 forwards whose scoring totals will be heavily influenced by teammates and coaching. IMO, Brink, Farabee, Tippett, Foerster, Frost -- all of those guys are capable of 40-60 points depending on how they are deployed. All of them are projecting on the low side of that right now. It's hard for me to look at this dataset and assume that coaching is not playing a huge part in the lack of offense.
Now, with that being said, the last 20 games or so are different. Of those guys that I mentioned, Foerster and Tippett are scoring at a prorated 50+ point pace (Cates is as well, and Frost is close). Of course all of the sh% and on-ice sh% are thru the roof during that time, too, so we'll have to see how the season plays out.
TL/DR -- Thru half the season, team is better defensively but worse offensively compared to last season.
Figure 1 - Comparison of 24-25 offense vs 23-24 offense. Last year, the team was a bit better in terms of offensive production vs the rest of the league. However, this year they've (to date) taken a step back. Now, that -2% was as low as -5% around game ~20, so there's some improvement over the last 20 games. We'll see if they can keep that up.
Figure 2 - Comparison of 24-25 Defense vs 23-24 Defense. Las season, they were a good defensive team, but this year they've gotten better defensively.
Figure 3 - Comparison of sG values for forwards from 23-24 to 24-25. It might be hard to see, and I'm sorry if that's the case. If you compare the locations of each player from 23-24 to 24-25, almost every player moved up and to the left (towards the upper left quadrant). What that means is that each forward is getting better defensively (upward movement) and worse offensively (to the left).
@JojoTheWhale and I have stated this multiple times. Typically, when a player gets better at offense, they typically get worse at defense AND VISE VERSA. In the case of the 24-25 Flyers, you're collectively seeing an entire forward group get better defensively but get worse offensively. If you saw my post in the projection thread, you'll see many of the secondary scorers are either stagnating or decreasing in overall point production.
Most of the forwards on this team (sans TK and likely Michkov) are secondary scoring/middle 6 forwards whose scoring totals will be heavily influenced by teammates and coaching. IMO, Brink, Farabee, Tippett, Foerster, Frost -- all of those guys are capable of 40-60 points depending on how they are deployed. All of them are projecting on the low side of that right now. It's hard for me to look at this dataset and assume that coaching is not playing a huge part in the lack of offense.
Now, with that being said, the last 20 games or so are different. Of those guys that I mentioned, Foerster and Tippett are scoring at a prorated 50+ point pace (Cates is as well, and Frost is close). Of course all of the sh% and on-ice sh% are thru the roof during that time, too, so we'll have to see how the season plays out.
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Flyers are one win by each of the Rangers, Islanders and Kraken to be back down to 28th place in the NHL.
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
Great analysis, and it shows the Flyers' priorities. Good at defense. Low event hockey. Nice and safe.
Probably will try to sign him to be the assistant coach in LV.
- Sep 28, 2014
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ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
Oh, hell yes. It's been a while since the Flyers' MO was "get the best up and coming person for the job, and keep them here through their prime" rather than "get the big name whose best years are a decade behind him."
freakydallas13
Registered User
These stats match my half hearted eye test for this season, as it seems a lot of their scoring recently is tied to opposing goaltenders playing poorly more than the Flyers playing well offensively.
Hakstol could have been considered that hire but he was a incest hire also since Hextall's son went to ND
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
Also, he didn't have a prime. But even then, if it hadn't been a pure nepo hire, that is 100% the kind of swing we need to be taking. We know the ceiling for retreads like Tortorella, and it's creeping closer to the floor every year. Same as with AV, same with Yeo Gabba Gabba, same with every other "well, he didn't work last place he was, but surely we have the secret sauce" hire we've made. What we don't know is how the people who haven't expended all their prime years will grow and develop and rise to the occasion.
The Broad Street Bullies worked because they exploited a market inefficiency (adding "beat the shit out of people" to "really good hockey players" so the opponents were both physically intimidated AND less effective.) If we're ever to win again, we need to find market inefficiencies. Figure out the next underutilized thing that turns good teams into great ones, and build a team that exploits that. Until we get back to doing things like that, being the cutting edge rather than the rearguard, we're only ever going to be mediocre.
freakydallas13
Registered User
This could be my own personal hot take, but I didn't mind the hiring of Hakstol at the time. It at least showed that the team was willing to try hiring someone new and not another retread, even if he did coach Hextall's kid.
Now, it turned out poorly, and they held on to him for too long, but I at least understood the reasoning behind his hiring and could be on board with (most) of their logic.
It's the same reason I unironically think the Ryan Ellis trade was a good one to this day, results be damned.
Now, it turned out poorly, and they held on to him for too long, but I at least understood the reasoning behind his hiring and could be on board with (most) of their logic.
It's the same reason I unironically think the Ryan Ellis trade was a good one to this day, results be damned.
VladDrag
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I think they have created some decent chances here and there -- but there's not enough consistency in that department. I've talked about this stat I've 'made up' that I call shot danger -- It's total expected goals divided by the total amount of unblocked shots, multiplied by 100 just to make it easier to read ((ixG/FF)*100). For forwards that have played 400+ all situation minutes, the 50th percentile shot danger metric is ~8.6. Flyers forwards are below:
What this is basically saying is that when the Flyers forwards shoot the puck, they are shooting from reasonably dangerous areas. So it's not like the players can't do it -- it's that they aren't being put in a position to do it significantly enough. Another reason why I lean towards coaching is the primary reason as to why they are not generating offensively.
deadhead
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- Feb 26, 2014
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Huge difference the last 20 games, and that's when the lines became set, and they could start developing chemistry. I think a lot of the defense improvement is simply becoming better at maintaining possession in the O-zone. Which is both skill with the puck but also winning board battles and forcing turnovers.
And players improving with their backchecking - if you're going to be aggressive in the O-zone, you have to backcheck aggressively b/c you're going to give up odd man rushes, but getting back quickly reduces the time they have to set up scoring plays.
They are now above average overall in speed and quickness, and will get faster when they add Jett and Andrae and maybe Barkey. I'd still like to add more speed to support this up tempo style, but also some size, they need another "Foerster," a big player who plays physical but has skill, v another Hathaway, a big physical player who has stone hands. Same on defense, when they trade Risto, Bonk will help balance a pair, but they could use one more physical D-man (McDonald? Gill filling out?) to pair with smaller puck dominant partners.
Notice the impact Berube has had on the Leafs, they're less explosive offensively except when they need to be, but far more physical and defensively responsible. It'll be interesting to see them in the playoffs this year.
Bigger forward group, Matthews (6'2 208), Knies (6'2 210), Pacioretty (6'2 217), McMann (6'2 210), Lorentz (6'4 210).
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
Absolutely, 100% this. Sometimes, things don't work. That's fine, that's life, it happens. If the logic behind a decision is sound, and it doesn't work out, so be it. What concerns me about this team, what has concerned me for years, is that there is either no logic or illogic behind the vast majority of their decisions, and when that's the case, even positive results aren't a positive, because they reflect dumb luck, not a strategy coming to fruition.
I have always and only wanted the team to consistently articulate a plan intended to turn the team into legitimate Cup contenders, prove that they're following that plan through concrete, visible action, and to update people honestly and forthrightly about where they are relative to where they feel they ought to be. It's the incredible failure to do those things that has me so negative about the team's recent past, present, and foreseeable future.
VladDrag
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If they were better in the O-zone it would lead to more shots -- it just would. We're not see that. We're seeing less shots. You can say the last twenty games are better, and I wouldn't disagree with you. But when you're evaluating you can't just throw out 20 games because the first part of the data fits your story better. This group of players is playing reasonably well right now, but they played like absolute ass early in the season. They can go back to playing like absolute ass again.
We'll see how the team goes moving forward. Last year, I thought they were good enough to be a playoff team. It will be hard for them to get there again...and pointless.
mize370
Registered User
only 5 players i want to keep on this team right now
Konecny
Michkov
Sanheim
Foerster
Fedotov (Just for the haters)
Briere should be on the phone everyday trying to trade all the rest. And also looking for a coaching staff.
The fans patience with him is waning
Konecny
Michkov
Sanheim
Foerster
Fedotov (Just for the haters)
Briere should be on the phone everyday trying to trade all the rest. And also looking for a coaching staff.
The fans patience with him is waning
FlyerNutter
In the forest, a man learns what it means to live
Yesterday's Laughton scare is a good example of how quickly you could lose a potential 1st or 2nd round pick.
Additionally, how easily a potential future star's career could go downhill if they get the wrong injury.
Briere's complacency to appropriately position the team to draft more high end talent, and move existing assets for picks is bordering on downright arrogance - and stupidity.
You can bet your ass, that they are scared to move anyone as they see themselves as still in the hunt for the playoffs. I don't believe Briere really runs shit, similar to Fletcher - but one would think he isn't oblivious to the fact that even he will have a expiry date, and the "goodwill" from the new era propaganda will fade.
Flyerfan4life
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deadhead
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You can if you're looking at a very young team where they lack experienced centers and everyone is learning on the job. Which is why I want to see what they do in the second half of the season, is this a fluke or young players climbing the learning curve?
I think they're shooting less b/c they're more focused on crashing the net and creating better shots - in fact they pass too much and don't take shots close to the net trying for the perfect play - sometimes you just hope to handcuff the goalie. Other problem is they try too hard to get velocity sometimes, especially D-men, it's more important to get a soft wrist shot to the net for a deflection or rebound than fire a high velocity slap shot around the boards.
This is where experience matters, you can see it with TK, who's a smarter, slicker scorer than he was a few years ago. Younger players have bad habits out of CHL/college, where you can just blast shots past goalies - starting NHL goalies should stop any shot they have a clear vision that's longer than 20' away. So you need to shoot closer, set up screens, deflections, move the goalie, etc. to score in the NHL - and that takes both time to learn and chemistry to make this work with linemates.
You can't just make a trade in the NHL, you need a partner.
The trades that have happened so far are mostly third tier players and mid-round picks.
GMs don't want to give up high value picks until they have to, and many need to accumulate cap room during the season to make TDL moves.
Which is why the vast majority of in season trades occur the week before the TDL every year.
So unless Briere wants to sell at a substantial discount (few buyers), he has to wait.
"You can't hurry love, you just got to wait . . ."
renberg
Registered User
Coaches are supposed to put players into positions where they can succeed. When the players are failing, the coaches are also failing them.
There is enough proven scoring power on the Flyers' roster for them to be able to bag more goals. Granted that there are some flaws with the Flyers' roster that cause the coaching staff to emphasize certain aspects of play and to stay away from others. Yet there are still things that the players can do that would enhance their scoring chances.
The current style of play used by the Flyers, both 5X5 and on the PP, are clear indications that what they are doing in the OZ is not successful and needs to be adjusted. If the current coaching staff can't make these changes, it needs to be changed.
FlyerNutter
In the forest, a man learns what it means to live
You're correct. You need a partner.
Askarov, Jiricek, Chychrun, and Sergachev were available. All 4, which had potential to be impact players for the Flyers "window", all 4 dealt for fair value. Or are we stating the Flyers famous scouting accumen is more valuable with later round 1sts, than say the players above.
For a team that's constantly coming out stating they will not tank - and prove it by retaining/extending anyone with any true talent sitting on their ass as they have, being downright lazy - is reprehensible.
If you don't want to condemn that Flyer front office, that's alright. A variation of opinions is good, but if they are on this path to contention that scoffs at the impact of high end picks - and overvalues other avenues at obtaining talent...
Well... They are failing at that strategy as well. In the constellation of approaches to build a team worth a damn, the Flyers are proving themselves more Lennie, than George when it comes to any coherent strategy.
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
This visually checks out with what I've been thinking im seeing the last couple months.
Offense? Train wreck.
Defense? Absolutely improved. Through last year and into this year, they played very outdated defense. Vintage Tortorella in NY stuff. Defaulted to collapsing around the net, and yielded a shitload of space to attackers. Passive except below the net, which was attacked with all aggression to deny it to attackers; effective in 2010 when playmaking relied on that space, ineffective now when playmaking has shifted to the blueline and boards for tons of teams. The entire top of the ice was free. Considering how teams currently work, it led to them getting shredded defensively. Guys don't blast pucks into blockers anymore, they use the space to pass around them and get speed to rush by them and force mistakes.
They adjusted to the modern game in the only area of the sport the coach understands. They've steadily gotten more and more lost in the area of the sport the coach has no understanding.
- Sep 28, 2014
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Briere is Torts lapdog and he's not going to let any of his favorite vets be traded. They extended Nick f***ing Seeler lol
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
This is what they've wanted and worked towards since Bryzgalov flopped. They embraced this as an organization and have so washed their brains in adoration of it as a virtuous style they cannot break free to anything else. Tortorella was an inevitable end to a long process of trying to emulate his Rangers teams.
