2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[mr figgles]

If Hart didn't go AWOL they probably end up with 95 points and a playoff berth last season.

It comes down to the goaltenders, if Ersson/Fedotov are average or better, they have a shot at the playoffs. If not, it solves itself and players get moved at the TDL.

If the Devils and Isles are healthy, the Flyers still don’t make the playoffs

 

[Redpath]

Charlie mentioned on PHLY yesterday that he's heard there are players in the room saying "Damn, this guy can play" about Luchanko. The larger conversation was about rationalizing to the locker room sending Luchanko back to junior after he's shown he can play.

This was the same argument being made last year about guys asking to keep Scott Laughton for a playoff run and being unable to rationalize to the locker room selling at the deadline while in a playoff position. If Briere is going to let the inmates run the asylum during a publicly declared rebuild, then let's lose the facade.

 

[trostol]

if they feel like Jett can stick, which frankly I think they should send him back no matter what, then they have to move someone out realistically...it will of course, if they do, be the wrong player

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Let's look at that top 4:
York - Sanheim CF 47.73%, xGF 49.57%, HDCF 50.20%
(8th in the league in minutes)

These are small samples:
Seeler - Drysdale CF 46.07%, xGF 51.12%, HDCF 56.90%
Zamula - Risto CF 50.79%, xGF 51.43%, HDCF 50.90%

York - Sanheim held their own against the toughest matchups.
Comes down to Drysdale, he has the perfect partner in Seeler, but he has to raise his game and live up to his draft status.
Zamula - Risto are fine for the 3rd pair.

More phantoms stats. It is not a good top 4 no matter how you try to slice it. They have a 2nd pair and 2-3rd pairings.

Now Seeler is the perfect partner. When does the felating end? The way you grope over him he should easily get back a 1st rd pick no?

Agree.

 

[deadhead]

There are many more teams that lose than win every year, so pointing out that failures isn't as good of an indicator as observing how success was achieved.


Since the lockout the only team to win a Cup without a top 5 pick is the 2008 Detroit Red Wings.

The only teams besides the 2008 Wings to win without a top 5 pick they themselves had drafted were the 2023 Golden Knights (Eichel/Pietrangelo - trade/FA) and the 2007 Ducks (Pronger/S. Niedermeyer - trade/FA).

11 of those 19 Cup winning teams had 2 or more top 5 picks they themselves have drafted.

Some rebuilds can wallow in mediocrity , but the path to success has more often than not been a result of allowing a team to properly fail and get rebuilt around top talent. It's not the only model but it's been the most viable model in the cap era.

Michkov was #7 but I think we'd all agree he's equivalent to a #1/#2.

The problem is with the lottery, "properly failing" could take a long time to get that "elite talent" unless you're lucky like Jersey, and even then, with Nico and Hughes, they finished 7 points behind the Flyers with similar goaltending.

Rangers got #1 and #2 and ended up with a good but not elite forward in Lafreniere and a 3 line guy in Kakko. They're a top 8 team b/c a 4th rd pick is an elite goalie.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Charlie mentioned on PHLY yesterday that he's heard there are players in the room saying "Damn, this guy can play" about Luchanko. The larger conversation was about rationalizing to the locker room sending Luchanko back to junior after he's shown he can play.

This was the same argument being made last year about guys asking to keep Scott Laughton for a playoff run and being unable to rationalize to the locker room selling at the deadline while in a playoff position. If Briere is going to let the inmates run the asylum during a publicly declared rebuild, then let's lose the facade.

Danny seems to be an easily manipulated putz.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Michkov was #7 but I think we'd all agree he's equivalent to a #1/#2.

The problem is with the lottery, "properly failing" could take a long time to get that "elite talent" unless you're lucky like Jersey, and even then, with Nico and Hughes, they finished 7 points behind the Flyers with similar goaltending.

Rangers got #1 and #2 and ended up with a good but not elite forward in Lafreniere and a 3 line guy in Kakko. They're a top 8 team b/c a 4th rd pick is an elite goalie.

Do the Rangers have any elite/top end guys besides their goalie?

 

[deadhead]

More phantoms stats. It is not a good top 4 no matter how you try to slice it. They have a 2nd pair and 2-3rd pairings.

Now Seeler is the perfect partner. When does the felating end? The way you grope over him he should easily get back a 1st rd pick no?

Agree.

Seeler - Walker was the best Walker played in his career. Wasn't as good on Colorado without him even with easier matchups.
Why? Because for an offense first D-man, it's nice to have a partner who can CYA.
The same applies to Drysdale.

York - Sanheim held their own as the first pair, they weren't elite, but they were solid with the hardest matchups. Doubt Sanheim can improve much other than being a little healthier, but York still has upside.

Goaltending is what can sink this team, improved scoring is what can raise it.

If Drysdale struggles, there aren't a lot of good options, Andrae is a LHD, as is Ginning, Attard is still questionable defensively, and Samson and Grans have yet to show NHL potential. Which is probably why they brought Johnson back.

 

[ponder719]

Do the Rangers have any elite/top end guys besides their goalie?

Panarin and Fox, obviously, I'd personally put Kreider down as top end, albeit shy of elite, Zibanejad's elite if he only plays the Flyers.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Panarin and Fox, obviously, I'd personally put Kreider down as top end, albeit shy of elite, Zibanejad's elite if he only plays the Flyers.

They have other pieces besies the goalie.

Seeler - Walker was the best Walker played in his career. Wasn't as good on Colorado without him even with easier matchups.
Why? Because for an offense first D-man, it's nice to have a partner who can CYA.
The same applies to Drysdale.

York - Sanheim held their own as the first pair, they weren't elite, but they were solid with the hardest matchups. Doubt Sanheim can improve much other than being a little healthier, but York still has upside.

Goaltending is what can sink this team, improved scoring is what can raise it.

If Drysdale struggles, there aren't a lot of good options, Andrae is a LHD, as is Ginning, Attard is still questionable defensively, and Samson and Grans have yet to show NHL potential. Which is probably why they brought Johnson back.

How did Seeler look after Walker was traded? Not very good is the answer. You severely overrate Seeler. By a huge margin.

Not looking for a d pair to hold their "own" as that isn't a winning formula.

Agree not a lot of good options at all. Shows the incompetenc of the orginization.

EJ was brought back as that is what they Flyers do. That is their pattern. He is cooked and it showed on 2 teams.

 

[deadhead]

Do the Rangers have any elite/top end guys besides their goalie?

Rangers have a top PP, but they're not a good 5x5 team, xGF 49.28% (20), HDCF 49.64% (20).
They scored 9 more goals than expected at ES, gave up 11 less than expected.
Gave up 9 less goals than expected on the PK
So the goalies basically saved 20 goals.

Key players are old: Panarin (33), Trocheck (31), Kreider (33), Zibanejad (31), Reilly Smith (33), 5 of their top 6 forwards. All three 4th liners are also 30 or older. The defense is young.

Real question is going to be Sheterkin's next contract, may be $10+M.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Hmm, have the Flyers had a top five pick force a trade out of the organization lately?

The objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

Zinger...

Charlie mentioned on PHLY yesterday that he's heard there are players in the room saying "Damn, this guy can play" about Luchanko. The larger conversation was about rationalizing to the locker room sending Luchanko back to junior after he's shown he can play.

This was the same argument being made last year about guys asking to keep Scott Laughton for a playoff run and being unable to rationalize to the locker room selling at the deadline while in a playoff position. If Briere is going to let the inmates run the asylum during a publicly declared rebuild, then let's lose the facade.

it would be 100% on brand for the Flyers to skip the AHL for Jett whilst letting every other AHLer prospect marinate down there till infinity ..

so it will prolly happen then Jett will get feasted on by actual NHL players

 

[deadhead]

Charlie mentioned on PHLY yesterday that he's heard there are players in the room saying "Damn, this guy can play" about Luchanko. The larger conversation was about rationalizing to the locker room sending Luchanko back to junior after he's shown he can play.

This was the same argument being made last year about guys asking to keep Scott Laughton for a playoff run and being unable to rationalize to the locker room selling at the deadline while in a playoff position. If Briere is going to let the inmates run the asylum during a publicly declared rebuild, then let's lose the facade.

Then why did he trade Walker?

Cates coming off an injury probably wasn't a viable option at center.
And that's probably why they kept Laughton

 

[VladDrag]

Then why did he trade Walker?

Because Walker wanted to test free agency, and wasn't willing to sign with the Flyers prior to seeing FA offers.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Rangers have a top PP, but they're not a good 5x5 team, xGF 49.28% (20), HDCF 49.64% (20).
They scored 9 more goals than expected at ES, gave up 11 less than expected.
Gave up 9 less goals than expected on the PK
So the goalies basically saved 20 goals.

Key players are old: Panarin (33), Trocheck (31), Kreider (33), Zibanejad (31), Reilly Smith (33), 5 of their top 6 forwards. All three 4th liners are also 30 or older. The defense is young.

Real question is going to be Sheterkin's next contract, may be $10+M.

Do they have any elite/top end players besides the goalie was the question.

Then why did he trade Walker?

Cates coming off an injury probably wasn't a viable option at center.
And that's probably why they kept Laughton

When will you ever accept the reason they kept Laughton has nothing to do with Cates or anyone else. They love him. That has been proven. Was Cates injured the prior deadline or summer?

Do you really believe this stuff despite the Flyers themselves saying otherwise.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Because Walker wanted to test free agency, and wasn't willing to sign with the Flyers prior to seeing FA offers.

No way. The CO-GM is smooth operator.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm sure it's a great solace to a fanbase that has MISSED THE PLAYOFFS FOR THIRTEEN STRAIGHT SEASONS and has had their generational draft pick force a trade out of the organization that they've won more games than a rebuilding Flyers the last 3 seasons.

Actually, yes, if you paid attention to them they are quite happy that they've had a management overhaul and their future is actually looking up for a change. That's an interesting bit of context you've deliberately omitted. Since making that change, they've won more than the Flyers.

The Flyers, unlike the Sabres, are running with the same management faces and philosophies.

You used to insist that wins are the most important thing. Processes be damned, all that matters is winning! You used that to somehow justify playing Hagg over superior players. Well, by your standards, the Sabres are plainly superior to the Flyers.

Your boogeyman of "WHAT ABOUT THE SABRES" doesn't work considering the Flyers are worse now, and prior to 2021 were only a little better. The Flyers are now the laughingstock other teams use as a warning. Including the Sabres.

What you're doing is supremely goofy. Like Commanders fans saying "AT LEAST WE AREN"T THE BROWNS" or Wizards fans smugly saying "We aren't the Hornets! Trying anything else could make things a little bit worse! So we should keep being terrible!"

 

[Redpath]

Then why did he trade Walker?

Cates coming off an injury probably wasn't a viable option at center.
And that's probably why they kept Laughton

The Walker trade was proof that Briere isn't a complete idiot. I gave him his credit for that.

But at no point should "But the players are going to be upset if Briere sticks to the rebuild that players should be fully aware of" be considered acceptable logic, neither by our beat writers nor by Briere himself.

 

[ponder719]

Do you really believe this stuff despite the Flyers themselves saying otherwise.

We know how this goes, though, don't we? The only Flyers management to have ever made a mistake is the previous one.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Then why did he trade Walker?

Cates coming off an injury probably wasn't a viable option at center.
And that's probably why they kept Laughton

Oh, you mean the guy he desperately tried not to trade and only let go once he couldn't get him signed?

 

[pit]

There are many more teams that lose than win every year, so pointing out that failures isn't as good of an indicator as observing how success was achieved.

The problem is with the lottery, "properly failing" could take a long time to get that "elite talent" unless you're lucky like Jersey, and even then, with Nico and Hughes, they finished 7 points behind the Flyers with similar goaltending.

Rangers got #1 and #2 and ended up with a good but not elite forward in Lafreniere and a 3 line guy in Kakko. They're a top 8 team b/c a 4th rd pick is an elite goalie.

Me: There are lots of ways to fail. Let's look at how almost every team in the last 20 years has succeeded and emulate that instead of looking just at the failures.

You: Yes, but have you considered that there are lots of teams have also failed doing that too? Let me tell you about a couple... (unless they succeed and then they won't count anymore like Colorado)

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Since I'm usually on the other side of these things, Luchanko should need to pass an incredibly high bar to stay up. He turned 18 last month. There's no reason to start his ELC clock.

 

[ponder719]

Since I'm usually on the other side of these things, Luchanko should need to pass an incredibly high bar to stay up. He turned 18 last month. There's no reason to start his ELC clock.

I get that, but does this organization have an incredibly high bar for him to pass? I'd almost rather just say "we're sending him down no matter what, Jett's fighting for his 9 cups of coffee here, not a permanent roster spot."

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

Laughton gets moved to 4th line?

C - Frost, Coots, Luchanko
LW - Farabee, Foerster, Tippett
RW - TK, Michkov, Brink

4th line would be some variation of Laughton, Poehling, Cates, Hathaway, Deslauriers

But I tend to agree with you - it's not happening unless someone is traded.

If Luchanko looks good enough to make the team he should make the team.

Charlie mentioned on PHLY yesterday that he's heard there are players in the room saying "Damn, this guy can play" about Luchanko. The larger conversation was about rationalizing to the locker room sending Luchanko back to junior after he's shown he can play.

This was the same argument being made last year about guys asking to keep Scott Laughton for a playoff run and being unable to rationalize to the locker room selling at the deadline while in a playoff position. If Briere is going to let the inmates run the asylum during a publicly declared rebuild, then let's lose the facade.

the rationalization to the locker room is if Luchanko sticks Laughton is traded. They’ll all be helping Luch pack his bags for Juniors.

 

[freakydallas13]

Since I'm usually on the other side of these things, Luchanko should need to pass an incredibly high bar to stay up. He turned 18 last month. There's no reason to start his ELC clock.

You're operating under the assumption the team's cup contention window isn't open, when we know for a fact management thinks otherwise.